RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 3:56:12 PM

Canoerebel

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I don't have complete information since recon is sporadic (Manila and Atimonan every day, Aparri and San Fernando and others irregularly). But it looks like he has more than 100k, with 45k at Atimonan and something in that neighborhood at Manila.

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Post #: 8941

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 4:00:31 PM

Canoerebel

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Supply was also a limiting factor. A 100k or 150k army needs a lot to advance and wage war. But Legaspi was a 1/0 base when taken, Naga was fairly small, and the bases up the peninsula were small. So supply limits were in place. It would take time to build the bases to raise the supply stores...time that would allow John to reinforce. And he'd have those big airfield to hit me, I'd have had none for protection.

I'm guessing that John is thrilled that I didn't move on Manila immediately. If so that says a lot about his defenses...and it says a lot about his failure to grasp the realities of what it takes to wage war on the scale involved in a deep invasion taking small bases to advance on a big enemy base that should be - or will be soon - strongly defended.

Coup-de-main on Manila sounds like a lot of sparkle and fun until you think it through.

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Post #: 8942

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 4:08:56 PM

jwolf

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Coup-de-main on Manila sounds like a lot of sparkle and fun until you think it through.

My take: high risk, moderate reward. Based on your position and success so far, no deal for such an op. For a player with a worse position, maybe you have take that kind of gamble.

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Post #: 8943

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 4:53:22 PM

ny59giants

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Allied TB pilots - How are your CV based TBs overall experience levels? If I remember right, your were disappointed in how many got through to get TT hits the last time you used them in mass. I think all players can agree upon the need to train them first in NavT skill. Where there may be some disagreement is what skill should be #2. I was in NavB camp for a long time, but I changed over to GrdB as there are limited opportunities to use either NavT or NavB enough to raise the pilots or the overall air groups experience levels. My observations have shown that until an air group gets experience levels up, the amount of hits stay relatively low for 2e and/or 4e bomber groups. I've started to train up my American TB CV groups in GrdB and then find a relative safe base to use my USN TB groups to get much needed experience. I'm hoping this pays off when the CV vs CV clash does happen. Could you send some of your TB CV groups from DS to bases in Philippines to bomb a base/LCU on 'milk runs' to get their experience up, but be close enough to fly back on their parent CV when needed??

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Post #: 8944

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 5:06:41 PM

witpqs

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I don't know details about it, but I recall developer(s) saying that for TB pilots there is some skill transfer of NavT to NavB. I've noted that good TB NavT pilots do a decent job with bombs on naval targets.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 5:17:54 PM

Canoerebel

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4/20/44

A quietly productive day as KB retired towards Truk. Details on map.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 8946

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 5:38:21 PM

Lokasenna

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Where are your paratroop units?

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Post #: 8947

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 5:48:05 PM

Canoerebel

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I have two paratroop units in the PI - 1st Australian, which has been 100% prepped for Manila for months, and 503rd USA, which is 77% prepped for a base that auto-flipped a few turns back.

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Post #: 8948

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 5:53:02 PM

paullus99

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Could be put to good use taking an island or two, which won't require prep.

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Post #: 8949

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 5:58:31 PM

Canoerebel

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On December 1, I responded to a Forumite who had guessed what Fun House was targeting. Here's what I wrote:

"The troops are preparing for bases in the Philippines, with Legaspi, Naga, Cebu and a few others as the core. These were wide open, until recently, but John is beginning to attend to them now.

"The advantage to the PI is that it's proximate to the "Big Tent" area, both for receiving aircraft and drawing supplies and fuel.

"The most recent SigInt is that 56th Div. is bound for Cebu (or maybe it was Catoblan, which is also important to me). If he keeps up the reinforcements, I'll shift [parts of message redacted to maintain OpSec] ...Fuel will be a critical issue, so I'll probably bring 500k to 750k aboard ships and have more waiting in the DEI. Aircraft won't be a major problem, because I have a large air force in India that will shift over."

I began planning (and prepping for) Fun House in the early autumn of 1943 after selecting the PI as my target. At the time, I was pretty sure many bases were open due to lack of base-building activity and SigInt mentions. But D-Day would be more than six months in the future, so I had no idea if the targets would remain weakly defended or if John would move to strongly reinforce. I did see some signs of reinforcements inbound to the heart of the region, but the units involved were weak and the reports sporadic. Much of what I saw indicated that John was focusing on Mindanao and Java. Then the whole Celebes operation came up and drew John's full attention for more than a month. So I was pretty sure - but not positive - that the Fun House targets were vacant or weakly defended.

Naga and Legaspi were always the heart of the operation. Those bases have huge potential and I was nearly positive John wasn't attending to them. There was a chance that Fun House would open with a carrier battle victory, in which case I was prepared to move on Manila since Death Star could then impose a strong blockade. But if there wasn't such a victory, I knew a move on Manila was highly unlikely: I wouldn't have the infrastructure in place to support such a move before John could strongly reinforce.

Accordingly, Fun House was built on the premise that it would likely turn into a long-term operation meant to seize, hold and build important bases while preparing for eventual decisive naval and land engagements.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 6:00:10 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99
Could be put to good use taking an island or two, which won't require prep.

Not worth it. Anything out there important enough to take is worth using amphibious assault with serious troops to hold them securely. I have lots of fast transports and infantry. Anything not big enough to warrant amphibious assault doesn't warrant using precious airborne troops, which will then be disrupted and will have to be retrieved for future airborne assault ops.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 6:14:27 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Allied TB pilots - How are your CV based TBs overall experience levels? If I remember right, your were disappointed in how many got through to get TT hits the last time you used them in mass. I think all players can agree upon the need to train them first in NavT skill. Where there may be some disagreement is what skill should be #2. I was in NavB camp for a long time, but I changed over to GrdB as there are limited opportunities to use either NavT or NavB enough to raise the pilots or the overall air groups experience levels. My observations have shown that until an air group gets experience levels up, the amount of hits stay relatively low for 2e and/or 4e bomber groups. I've started to train up my American TB CV groups in GrdB and then find a relative safe base to use my USN TB groups to get much needed experience. I'm hoping this pays off when the CV vs CV clash does happen. Could you send some of your TB CV groups from DS to bases in Philippines to bomb a base/LCU on 'milk runs' to get their experience up, but be close enough to fly back on their parent CV when needed??

My CV TBF pilots are fairly well qualified. Here's a sample from Bunker Hill.

My CVE TBF pilots aren't quite as qualified, but they're decent. Most gained higher skill levels by training and then flying ASW missions. A fair number of my CVE TBF squadrons are devoted to sub suppression, especially when I know KB isn't lurking.

Attachment (1)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 6:44:03 PM

Canoerebel

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The use and non-use of bombardments offers another interesting insight into the acceptance and selection of tradeoffs.

I think all of us enjoy a good bombardment - sicking the Kongos or Iowas on a juicy enemy base, tearing up airfields, destroying aircraft, and wearing out enemy troops.

Bombardments can be very effective and are fun, so we naturally tend to look for opportunities to use them.

In the case of Fun House, I haven't used a single bombardment. I don't think I used a bombardment in Big Tent until weeks into the op, while trying to soften up Ambon.

Why my reticence? It's not because bombardments are risky (they are, for reasons that each of us has learned by trial and error). It's because bombardments use a heckuva lot of ammo, meaning your combat ships are temporarily vulnerable to enemy attack or have to retire to a port where they can re-arm, assuming you have a port and the necessary AKE/AK/AD etc. to replenish. All of that takes time and effort.

But above all, my concern is the weakness of my combat ships. John likes to commit his in combat, when he has any left, so I always have to plan for hot and heavy battles.

So if I'm reticent about using bombardments, how have I managed to massive invasions while engaging in just a single bombardment target? By choosing objectives that are weakly held or undefended. That's not the only criteria for target selection, but it's one of them.

I have used bombardments to good effect - especially at Horn Island, Gove and Ambon. And those were fun!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 6:57:20 PM

jwolf

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

But above all, my concern is the weakness of my combat ships. John likes to commit his in combat, when he has any left, so I always have to plan for hot and heavy battles.

Is this still true? Sure, John likes to use his capital ships a lot -- but I don't think he's looking for a serious surface fight with them. Not after the losses he's already taken. Rather, as I see it he goes after softer targets: shore bombardments and merchant shipping. Do you think he's really trying to arrange a big surface fight at this point?

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Post #: 8954

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 7:04:10 PM

Canoerebel

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We just engaged in a pretty serious surface combat nine days ago.

Kaigun is weak enough that he can't afford to suffer any more defeats, on the one hand, but he's desperate on the other hand. These are tight waters close to some big enemy airfields. Knife fights can break out at any time. So until I take control of the theater and feel secure, I'm proceeding pretty cautiously.

You larger question may be: why not use bombardments now, since Kaigun is weak. I do have the opportunity now since I can replenish at Legaspi or Naga and since I have overwhelming force while KB and Kaigun are far away. But I don't have any targets worth the relatively modest risk involved. I'm not ready to move on any of his bigger bases, and Manila is too risky (mines, shore guns, etc.). His army at Atimonan is the only possibility. I have my eyes on it, but I have higher priority missions for the next few weeks.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/2/2017 9:05:01 PM

Canoerebel

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Since I'm a flexible, pliable, winsome sort, who after gentle prodding looks at things more closely (sometimes), I've decided to try bombarding Atimonan. This will coincide with the commencement of the 4EB campaign. If both components go well, John may flinch a bit. I'm usually leery of bombardments near enemy bases, but I don't think he has much in the way of strike aircraft in the vicinity at the moment.

I'm also proceeding with the little campaign to occupy islands on the South China Sea.

The real purpose of all this activity is to drive up the stakes, increasing the pressure John will feel to commit KB. I hope.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 12:22:57 AM

BillBrown

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You are doing a fine job CR, time to bump your thread to the top.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 1:55:40 AM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Since I'm a flexible, pliable, winsome sort, who after gentle prodding looks at things more closely (sometimes), I've decided to try bombarding Atimonan. This will coincide with the commencement of the 4EB campaign. If both components go well, John may flinch a bit. I'm usually leery of bombardments near enemy bases, but I don't think he has much in the way of strike aircraft in the vicinity at the moment.

I'm also proceeding with the little campaign to occupy islands on the South China Sea.

The real purpose of all this activity is to drive up the stakes, increasing the pressure John will feel to commit KB. I hope.

You should not have any problems if you're working out of Naga. It's only a few hexes - even the prewar BBs could bombard.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 4:51:38 AM

bradfordkay

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Dan, my comments were not based upon any knowledge of what John has on Luzon but rather an indication of how I think when I go on the offensive. I like to land at multiple places at once (the same as you) partly because doing so dilutes any attacks upon the invasion forces - though it can dilute the air cover over those bases.

But, I like to build up all those bases as quickly as possible into an interlocking air defense. It seems to me that landing at a bunch of bases and then only building one or two up quickly is not taking full advantage of the audacious landings. If I were landing where you are and didn't have enough engineers to quickly build up Samar and Cebu into supporting bases then I would have driven for Atimonan and the next base (Locerno? - I don't have my game open and the mouse over isn't working on your map!) as quickly as possible. One advantage of driving forward is that some of that supply you are worried about spoiling due to base supply limits will go forward with the troops.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. Not a serious criticism of your actions but rather a sharing of ideas.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 6:02:46 AM

CaptBeefheart

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I don't think you need my support, but under the circumstance of a somewhat intact KB in play, I'm sure your Legaspi plan was the prudent course of action.

Let me reiterate that you guys are doing a great job entertaining and providing food for thought to the peanut gallery.

Cheers,
CC

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 8:11:10 AM

obvert

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If the South China Sea bases are the next target and the goal is to put pressure on John, one thought would be to send 8-10 mini-invasions to every empty base in sight with the idea that some will stick and some may not. In this way it restricts Johns ability to react and minimises losses of more important ships. This kind of op can be APD/LST and other small invasion craft dropping marine raider units, defence units and engineers.

Against GreyJoy I employed this type of "invasion wave" in So Pac and Cent Pac and in spite of single base reversals it led to steady progress and (I felt at the time) enormous pressure on the Japanese. Not only do you gain bases now but you indicate you'll grab anything open in the future, stretching defences even more than they are currently if he wants to meet the threat.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 10:53:51 AM

Canoerebel

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4/21/44

The Allied mini-operation to seize bases on the South China Sea opens smoothly and quickly. See map for details.

The purpose is much as Obvert just described - seize multiple bases, thus putting pressure on an already-stretched and stressed enemy. I don't have the infrastructure to build these bases quickly, but their very existence is a threat to John (and they can be used for PBYs immediately).

Base-building continues very fast at Legaspi an Naga. The airfields will be built out in a matter of a few weeks. Then engineers will switch to ports. Then they'll be distributed to other bases. Supply levels are pretty robust (see map).

I think John has to move to stop the sudden increase in expansion since it threatens to nearly divide the Empire in two, but in the past he hasn't done what I thought he most needed to do to protect his empire.

The foremost objective remains to attrition KB/Kaigun.

Attachment (1)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 11:09:33 AM

Canoerebel

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Quite a few veterans and some newcomers are reading. Some chime in with thoughts of how they might do things. Some chime in after detailed reading and analysis; some after only reading a few entries, and those sporadically; and some after reading John's AAR and gaining information that I may not have.

As the writer, I'm glad anybody is reading (it makes the effort worthwhile). Some of your comments are right on target, some miss the mark, and many generate ideas that I test one way or another.

An example of that was yesterday, when the "coup de main on Manila" comment made me think about how I'm approaching things; that prompted me to the analogy about how I use bombardment TFs; and that, in turn, eventually led to the decision to bombard Atimonan.

The situation is somewhat akin to my work. At any particular moment, I have several dozen manuscripts in from freelance writers. Receiving, reviewing, editing, and communicating with writers usually takes hours, sometimes mounting in the dozens of hours (if a manuscript is a good story but requires a lot of editing).

Every writer who submits a story hopes for a quick response. They figure I'm seated in my office, waiting for stories to come in, and immediately pounce on each story that comes in.

In reality, I have hundreds of little chores going on all the time, from office routine (answering mail, phone calls, speaking engagements, teaching, cleaning, writing checks, balancing the books, etc.) to creative work (proofing, editing, writing, searching for photos, checking facts, checking captions, writing authors with updates or questions, etc.).

This week, I spent all my time thus far (four days) proofing the Spring 2017 issue of the magazine, leaving little time for other things, and that mostly consisted of writing checks, answering mail and taking phone calls. Meanwhile, all those writers think I've had four days to work on their story...and they're calling or writing to ask, "So, what did you think of my story?"

And it's true that I could've taken the hour or two to attend to theirs. But, in the overall scheme of things, I have a complicated schedule. I know how to work it, and I know I'm getting things done effectively and efficiently, yet each of them may think I'm lagging. And sometimes a writer or photographer or reader throws out something that makes me think, "Hmmm, there's an idea...."

And sometimes one comes along and points out where I've made a mistake.

But, overall, through twelve years of experience and working hard, I have a pretty good notion of what I can do and when I should be doing it.

Does that make sense?

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Post #: 8963

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 12:10:58 PM

Encircled

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Perfectly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 2:06:46 PM

BBfanboy

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That hole you are making in the central Philippines reminded me of an old cartoon...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 2:46:36 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Every writer who submits a story hopes for a quick response. They figure I'm seated in my office, waiting for stories to come in, and immediately pounce on each story that comes in.

In reality, I have hundreds of little chores going on all the time, from office routine (answering mail, phone calls, speaking engagements, teaching, cleaning, writing checks, balancing the books, etc.) to creative work (proofing, editing, writing, searching for photos, checking facts, checking captions, writing authors with updates or questions, etc.).

etc meaning in actuality you are ...

... reading the AE Main Forum, catching up on the progress of a few AARs, annotating maps for the AAR, emailing John to stop writing message subject lines with ALL CAPS BANZAI!!!, answering various PMs, writing back to questions on the AAR, composing long philosophical notes on the job of a magazine editor for the AAR, musing about "lost" AE forum veterans whereabouts, sharing insights and philosophical notes about the benefits or regular excursions to the segments of the Appalachian Trail, posting an occasional question about AE game mechanics, and enlightening AE forum members on minor North Georgian Civil War battles and characters.

There is a lot to do in a week!!

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Post #: 8966

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 3:10:59 PM

Canoerebel

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*Ack!" I've been outed!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 3:49:31 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

*Ack!" I've been outed!

Hopefully BBfanboy, ny59giants and witpqs don't happen to know (or be) those writers submitting to Georgia Backroads!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 3:54:08 PM

Canoerebel

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No, to the best of my knowledge, none of my contributing writers is a Forumite. But crsutton is a reader!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/3/2017 4:02:45 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

*Ack!" I've been outed!

Hopefully BBfanboy, ny59giants and witpqs don't happen to know (or be) those writers submitting to Georgia Backroads!

I'm a little far west for that!

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