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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 2:41:47 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		I love the mixing up of the attack orders.

Here is one for you: Set one of the 60 ARM units to Reserve (Pursuit). They would follow into Manila. Japan would see one unit all by its lonesome in Manila and attack. The following day race all the other Armored units in using Reserve (no pursuit) mode. Instead of fighting one unit, he attacks 5 armored units in x2 terrain that you have pretty decent prep for.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9571
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 2:53:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here are the reserves coming up from Lucena - not all of them - a couple are hanging back, one to await important fragments of the division and one to provide security in the rear against enemy surprise attack.

Lowpe, your idea is an elegant one that I hope to keep in mind. I probably wouldn't have done it on this occasion lest I end up skewering my armor by trying to be elegant. In this case, I know that John's in big trouble, so I can simply bring the hammer. But there could be many times where your idea would really work nicely.




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Post #: 9572
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 2:56:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm about to run the 6/11/44 turn, but a few important tidbits. Here's the landing at Miri, which goes off well although the Australian disablements are higher than I'd hoped for. But I'm posting this mainly to show the number of enemy AA units present in this hex. Lots of AA, little infantry. John attended to his oil centers but left his army on Luzon without AA. Trade-off.

Ground combat at Miri (64,87)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 891 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 71

Defending force 4440 troops, 145 guns, 43 vehicles, Assault Value = 156

Assaulting units:
57th Infantry Bde /1
42nd Air Defense AA Regiment
65th Field AA Battalion
6th JNAF Coy
41st Air Defense AA Regiment
62nd Field AA Battalion
8th JNAF Coy

Defending units:
6th Australian Div /27

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9573
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 2:57:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		And the Battle of Batangas results:

Ground combat at Batangas (79,78)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 53833 troops, 972 guns, 1450 vehicles, Assault Value = 1826

Defending force 43055 troops, 457 guns, 175 vehicles, Assault Value = 1125

Allied adjusted assault: 1377

Japanese adjusted defense: 178

Allied assault odds: 7 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied forces CAPTURE Batangas !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
14946 casualties reported
Squads: 531 destroyed, 113 disabled
Non Combat: 629 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 255 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 228 (212 destroyed, 16 disabled)
Vehicles lost 172 (172 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 7

Allied ground losses:
1184 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 86 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 29 disabled
Engineers: 21 destroyed, 27 disabled
Guns lost 19 (1 destroyed, 18 disabled)
Vehicles lost 50 (3 destroyed, 47 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
131st Combat Engineer Regiment
6th Infantry Division
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
5th USMC Tank Battalion
93rd Infantry Division
767th Tank Battalion
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
43rd Infantry Division
2nd Marine Division
766th Tank Battalion
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn Regiment
209th Field Artillery Battalion
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
181st Field Artillery Regiment
XI US Corps
1st Medium Regiment

Defending units:
15th Division
21st Division
19th Division
48th Division
8th Engineer Regiment
3rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
19th Ind. Engr Rgt /1

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Post #: 9574
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 3:01:53 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Those four divisions are beat up, especially in terms of guns lost.

That makes at least 11 Japanese divisions roughed up in 1944 campaigning: these four, five in Burma, 16th in the DEI, and 56th in the Marshalls and Leyte.

As best I can tell, John only has one fresh division (24th) on Luzon plus some mixed brigades and other stuff. He can still fight hard, but Batangas means the campaign is off to a promising start on a campaign I originally expected to last until September.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9575
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 3:20:31 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm about to run the 6/11/44 turn, but a few important tidbits. Here's the landing at Miri, which goes off well although the Australian disablements are higher than I'd hoped for. But I'm posting this mainly to show the number of enemy AA units present in this hex. Lots of AA, little infantry. John attended to his oil centers but left his army on Luzon without AA. Trade-off.

Ground combat at Miri (64,87)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 891 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 71

Defending force 4440 troops, 145 guns, 43 vehicles, Assault Value = 156

Assaulting units:
57th Infantry Bde /1
42nd Air Defense AA Regiment
65th Field AA Battalion
6th JNAF Coy
41st Air Defense AA Regiment
62nd Field AA Battalion
8th JNAF Coy

Defending units:
6th Australian Div /27


That is not a lot of AA. Japan has gotten large amounts of AA around the time you get B29s. 10 AA units would be a better number...luckily for Japan they will respawn in 20-30 days at Tokyo and fill out in 2 weeks.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9576
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 3:40:54 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		Congratulations on the great result at Batangas -- that looks like the equivalent of a full division destroyed.

Now, for a rookie question on the multiple attack you ordered there. Since the shock attack was so successful, I assume the followup deliberate attack was called off? Or did those units get lumped into the shock attack, but not shocking? I'm confused because when you order a DA and you have arty, they get coded to bombard which is done as part of the DA. But can you really have two separate ground attacks in the same hex, same turn?

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 9577
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 3:48:25 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Good going!

AFAIK, all units attack at once but with different orders.

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Post #: 9578
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 3:55:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John doesn't seem to have any AA on Luzon, so where is it all?

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 9579
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 3:59:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That was 2,000 points for the Japanese units destroyed at Batangas - by far the biggest score in the game for the Allies. I have a long, long way to go in the ground war, but the score is 23.5k for Japan to 6.6k for the Allies. At the start of '44, I think it was 21.5k to 3.3k. I doubt I'll ever even out that ratio, but getting it close is important in the overall scheme of things.

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Post #: 9580
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 4:07:48 PM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		Are you expecting another rant about the power of 4Es in the ground attack role?

I can't believe he's tried to hold there without an AA.

I can't believe he's tried to hold there full stop to be honest.

_____________________________


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Post #: 9581
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 4:25:57 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		It is puzzling....John just doesn't seem to understand the power of massed allied air at this point in the game.

The lack of AA is just appalling. That's just criminal, not to mention that he seems to have far fewer fighters than he should, in the area, if he was serious about trying to hold anything.

His troops are also highly unlikely to hold against massed allied infantry and tanks, as well, given the disparity in quality.

I am of the opinion that he really just doesn't know how the play the endgame, especially without an overwhelming navy to use as a club or hammer.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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Post #: 9582
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 4:29:04 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		I agree, John has not played a game to end game. But this is a learning curve for him. "Appalling" and "Criminal" are pretty hard words Let's see how this plays out. We all had to learn the hard way

_____________________________

If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 9583
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 5:02:53 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		True - those are harsh words, but anyone who has had experience on the receiving end of the Allied Juggernaut in the end game realizes that defense, fighters, forts, and plenty of AA is mandatory to make a true stand.

At this point, John has suffered a series of tactical, operational, and strategic defeats which are really going to hamper his ability to protect the HI over the coming months of game play.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 9584
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 5:15:48 PM   
aleajactaest10044


Posts: 33
Joined: 5/3/2014
Status: offline 		Good show, its nice to see real life results occurring on the ground at this stage of the war.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 9585
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 5:25:01 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		One of the original objectives of the Luzon campaign was to draw a Japanese army, to beat it up. This was discussed eight or nine months ago in the AAR. At the time, I knew the Japanese army had barely been touched in the game. A time would come when I'd have to address that head on. At the time, I didn't figure John would get so messed up in Burma. That was just a bonus. But I did think Luzon would be the place to take on his army. That's one reason I estimated the campaign would take from April until September '44.

There's a chance now that the Allies can blast through Manila, though probably less than 50%. John has the advantage of good terrain, where my bombers will be considerably less effective. He can also bring in some infantry units that haven't been mauled - probably one division and several mixed brigades. And he'll almost surely ship in reinforcements before I can impose a blockade (that's at least two weeks away). I probably have one advantage - preparation percentage for my army.

I'm going to give the taking of Manila the old college try, but I think John will stabilize for just awhile. And that's not such a bad thing - sucking in additional infantry while the Allies build new airfields close to Manila and prepare to receive all kinds of replacements and reinforcements coming in from the Pacific.

Luzon is a bad place for John at the moment. It could get much worse before the month is over.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 9586
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 5:47:30 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		I figure John is just not used to the power of Allied air at this stage of the game. He might also be placing defenses farther back with those assets so they are ready when you get there.

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9587
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 6:19:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I do think he focused on preparing the Home Islands for B29s. Multiple SigInt reports of hundreds (sometimes 500) aircraft at HI bases. He probably has lots of AA there too. He was prepared for a strategic bombing campaign but I've deferred to tactical bombing. That'll evolve over time, but right now I prefer not to use the Superforts at extended range.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 9588
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 6:46:12 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		A wise move. If he's got better than historical pilots at this point (and he certainly does!) then the superforts would take much greater than historical losses.

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

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Post #: 9589
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 9:23:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/11/44

See map for details.




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Post #: 9590
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 9:29:29 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline 		I swear there is some kind of movement glitch associated with the jungle rough terrain adjacent to Manila.

I have had troops route through it coming and going form Manila and didn't realize it until they had invested several turns of movement into that route.

_____________________________

Hans


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Post #: 9591
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 9:30:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		For those relatively new to the game, what's happened over the past three months is an interesting study in how two sides can see things very differently.

In March '44, John wiped out Allied resistance on Celebes. On that turn, he sent me an email: "That turn ROCKED." That (as you can probably tell) chapped my rear-end.

But moreso, I was nearly certain that John was shortsighted, focusing on Celebes while failing to attend properly to defenses on Luzon and vicinity. Based upon SigInt, base building, sub detection levels, and the give and take of things, I thought the Allies were going to take advantage of John's tunnel vision...and that Luzon would prove that Celebes was actually a strategic loss for him.

Still more cards to be played - fate still to swing this way or that - but I feel vindicated in my assessment. John's crowing about Celebes was indeed symptomatic of a larger failure to appreciate his situation.

But I won't send him an email: "This turn ROCKED!"

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/23/2017 9:31:32 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9592
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 10:22:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Mini KB, combat TF, and some other good ships on the move in the DEI.




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Post #: 9593
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 10:28:12 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		It looks like he's protecting his oil convoys.....

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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Post #: 9594
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 12:02:37 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Lots of SigInt nuggets today.




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Post #: 9595
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 12:12:53 AM   
Grfin Zeppelin


Posts: 1515
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Germany
Status: offline 		It also sadly shows that he does not understand how Japanese flak works.

_____________________________



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Post #: 9596
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 2:40:20 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

It also sadly shows that he does not understand how Japanese flak works.


Spitballs, right?

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Post #: 9597
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 9:47:59 AM   
Grfin Zeppelin


Posts: 1515
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Germany
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

It also sadly shows that he does not understand how Japanese flak works.


Spitballs, right?

Yeah those machinecanons wont do anything in Hamamatsu.They could have done something to Canoes divebombers in the PI tho.

_____________________________



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Post #: 9598
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 10:24:26 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

One of the original objectives of the Luzon campaign was to draw a Japanese army, to beat it up. This was discussed eight or nine months ago in the AAR. At the time, I knew the Japanese army had barely been touched in the game. A time would come when I'd have to address that head on. At the time, I didn't figure John would get so messed up in Burma. That was just a bonus. But I did think Luzon would be the place to take on his army. That's one reason I estimated the campaign would take from April until September '44.

There's a chance now that the Allies can blast through Manila, though probably less than 50%. John has the advantage of good terrain, where my bombers will be considerably less effective. He can also bring in some infantry units that haven't been mauled - probably one division and several mixed brigades. And he'll almost surely ship in reinforcements before I can impose a blockade (that's at least two weeks away). I probably have one advantage - preparation percentage for my army.

I'm going to give the taking of Manila the old college try, but I think John will stabilize for just awhile. And that's not such a bad thing - sucking in additional infantry while the Allies build new airfields close to Manila and prepare to receive all kinds of replacements and reinforcements coming in from the Pacific.

Luzon is a bad place for John at the moment. It could get much worse before the month is over.



The key to getting Manila is blasting his fields into submission and then having free reign on the troops. Even though it's better terrain, hits on the troops and fields will take supply, add fatigue and disruption and if your forces get a few days rest before the battle, the difference will be dramatic.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9599
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 10:25:13 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

It also sadly shows that he does not understand how Japanese flak works.


Spitballs, right?

Yeah those machinecanons wont do anything in Hamamatsu.They could have done something to Canoes divebombers in the PI tho.


They're good on Okinawa and PI, some of the islands. Or just disband them to save supply.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 9600
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