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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 1:42:38 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That's something I've explained before. Keeping tabs on victory points is probably more important to Japan than to the Allies throughout the first years of the game. I can understand that this raid possibly - not definitively, but possibly - makes sense from a victory point perspective.

But for the Allies, victory points really aren't an issue until the closing months or year of the game (VP are always an issue, just paling in comparison to the real issue). For the Allies, I think it's counterproductive to obsess about VPs in the early years. Early on the game is about Japan's ability to wage war, so that trading capital ships can be quite effective no matter what the actual VP ration might be. If the Allied player takes out a bunch of CAs and BBs so that KB is left short of escorts, that can affect Japan's ability to wage war.

In the mid game and early stages of the late game, gaining an advantageous position to prosecute the war - to bring it home - is more important that actual VP ratios.

If this is done right - and without wastefully losing VPs - the Allied player ends up in an advantageous position - and the Japanese player a disadvantageous one - as the war draws into its closing months.

Here I think the Allies have accomplished both objectives - attritioning the Japanese navy and closing on the Home Island - probably ahead of schedule. If I'm right, the Allies are in a position now to "harvest" VPs at a much quicker rate than if I had played more conservatively while obsessing about VP ratios.

From that aspect, the freedom to expedite Peep Show - to seize three islands in proximity to Formosa - while KB was divided and off on raiding missions, was an important development. I think the Allied advances in Luzon and possibly with Peep Show will prove the folly of John's raiding mentality, just as the Celebes campaign prevented (or helped prevent) John from attending to the Philippines.

(in reply to AcePylut)
Post #: 10051
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 1:06:49 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		For CR to really start gaining victory points he has to break the fighter back of Japan. The speed of this will depend a great deal upon how well prepared Japan is for this different type of warfare. We know that Japan has the Sam and Frank so they are off to a good start there, and we know that night bombing is off in some kind of limbo but for at least now it is not in the toolbox for the Allies. Advantage Japan. (Now when I say advantage Japan I merely mean that they should be able to resist the inevitable longer).


Secondly, he needs to destroy new production - engines or frame production or both.

One and two above can be accomplished if Japan runs out of supplies or HI production & pool.

Now the Allies have lots of advantages and being the aggressor is perhaps the greatest. CR can pick and choose what to attack. Relative pilot quality most likely goes to the Allies.

Another advantage that CR seems to have is he seems to enjoy more aspects of the game. As players we tend to do better at those parts of the game we enjoy. John loves CVs and slashing naval attacks. It seems to me CR enjoys that, but enjoys the bigger picture, planning and logistics, and quite frankly that part of the game for both players is critical -- perhaps even more important for Japan since a screwup with the economy is fatal at the endgame.

I am not sure how either player is measuring success. It seems to me this game, barring a personal morale failure, will easily make 1945. How deep into 1945 is the question.





< Message edited by Lowpe -- 4/26/2017 1:08:38 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 10052
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 1:15:10 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Does Japan get a lot of new ground units in '45? Or is its ground force strength dependent on what the player brings back to Japan.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 10053
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 1:23:40 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn



Does Japan get a lot of new ground units in '45? Or is its ground force strength dependent on what the player brings back to Japan.


Japan will get 10 militia divisions on the HI when the Allies hit a trigger point.

Wiped out units can be bought back and spawn in Tokyo in 20-30 days for rebuilding.

But to answer your question simply: Tons. They need supply and armaments and vehicle points galore to fill out though. Most JFB's don't anticipate the huge drain on the economy they put Japan thru.





(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 10054
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 1:41:18 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		Professor Lowpe,

What amount of Vehicles, Armament, Supplies, Oil/Fuel, Engines, etc. to you try to stockpile by a specific date as Japan?? Say by Jan 1st '44 or other dates.

_____________________________


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 10055
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 2:31:15 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Professor Lowpe,

What amount of Vehicles, Armament, Supplies, Oil/Fuel, Engines, etc. to you try to stockpile by a specific date as Japan?? Say by Jan 1st '44 or other dates.


A lot of variables there Michael, not the least is the scenario, and whether or not refining generates a point of supply.

In most games, it is impossible to stockpile oil as it gradually grinds down. You can turn off refining in the SRA and ship it back to the HI/Port Arthur but that is situational on the game, the scenario settings.

Supply: Sit down, Michael. You need in excess of 6 million. 8 million is better; especially in a scenario 2 style game. Incredibly difficult to get there. Now a lot, say over 1-2 million depends upon your late plane builds. If they are front loaded, then you don't need as much. JFB's routinely waste large amounts of supplies in repairs, fort building, base expansion, plane mistakes, spoilage, economic expansion, etc.

Vehicles and Armaments should never ever be turned off if you plan to play into 1945, especially to Soviet activation. Vehicles probably should be at 230+. Normal recommendations is 180+, but that is incredibly low even for a scenario 1 game.

Fuel: 1 years stockpile plus. That is greater than 3 million in a scenario 2 game. You should not run out of fuel, as it cannot be destroyed except by spoilage (once stored); and you have great control over how much of it you use. However, most JFB's will run short eventually and obviously much more difficult in a scenario 1 game.

Fighters: You need to be prepared for the massive Army Fighter expansion in 1st Qtr 44, the IJNAF fighter reduction in 6/44 and the horrendous air war that will take place over the HI at some point. Massive investment in front line 45 fighters for Japan is almost never a waste of supply, and in fact protects supply generation. In 1945 you might be making 2000 fighters a month! And losing them! The sooner you realize this, the sooner you learn the importance of late war fighters that use an early engine like the Jack and Ki100. For a smaller investment of supply you can generate a surplus of engines because production will be running for the entire game. Most players never make enough Ha45...and some other engine types too.

PS: If you have less, you simply start making sacrifices sooner. Not the end of the world.







< Message edited by Lowpe -- 4/26/2017 2:39:38 PM >

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 10056
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 3:21:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I have little experience playing into the late game (and none more recent than 2009), and I've never played Japan. I know the economy is a critical aspect of the game for Japan, that Japan can crash it and that the Allies can give it a good shove in the right direction. But I do not intimately know the workings, nor how to accurately assess what condition John might be in right now.

A few players have posited that John is in good shape economically due to the lack of attrition to his merchant fleet. I don't know if their analysis is based on reading John's AAR, gleaned from what I've said in mine (I don't mention sub warfare that often, but I think the Allies have actually done pretty well), or both. I have some optimism about John's economy given his heavy losses (I think) in shipping, the fact that some of his oil production was damaged, destroyed and not repaired, offset by the fact that he had Magwe until early 1944), and by the fact that he's steamed hard around the map a lot. But that's all very nebulous (amorphous) in my mind, and hard to judge.

I've said many times that I had three objectives. Here there are and how things stand:

1. Attrition the Japanese navy: This has gone very well. In late '43 and early '44, John was highly reluctant to commit his ships, giving me the freedom to move forward in this elongated campaign with little threat to my merchant fleet. Of late he has rebuilt his navy and is prowling again - SoPac and Miri being two examples. His carrier fleet is his strongest asset now, so there will probably be a big battle coming, unless something happens where his carriers get frittered away by lucky sub strikes or whatever. He's done nothing to hit the Allied LOC, and supply long ago become the deciding factor in the Allied advances. John is now running low on safe shipyards and pretty soon sea room will be an issue for his combat and merchant ships.

2. Interdict his LOC to the DEI: Medan's oil production took a huge hit when John recaptured it, and he didn't repair one major oil facility damaged at the start of the game, but the "no strategic bombing until 1944" HR prevented me from attending to Magwe. Allied sub warfare has been reasonably successful (I think). And now the DEI is truly interdicted, though John is slipping a few merchant TFs down the China/Indochina coast. That'll stop soon. Two months ago, game time, the Chinese interdicted the supply routes inbound from Indochina. I thought this was a major development that would demand John's full attention, but he's totally ignored it. Since merchant shipping is trickling down and will soon disappear, I thought he'd rely on overland transport. But it doesn't seem to concern him. I'm not sure what all that means, yet. He's lost Miri, and I'll move on Balikpapan when Peep Show winds down. I'll initiate occasional strategic bombing of Palembang and the Java oil production centers as soon as Miri's airfield is about size six. I do not know how John's economy is doing but possibly its not robust given the way he plays.

3. Obtain big airfields within proximity of the Home Islands for Strategic Bombing: Progress here has been good. Luzon is a bit far, but Formosa and vicinity should be close enough to allow strategic bombing to escalate properly.

I should add a fourth item: Points harvesting to win the accounting aspect of the game: I've claimed before that the Allies frontloaded this, investing in heavy and costly action early on to achieve an advantageous situation later. I think that's on target, too. Points should become much more available soon: John's losing Army points in big chunks as the Allies advance, with the fall of Luzon (and hopefully the fall of Formosa) offering sizeable chunks; he's running out of sea room and safe ports, so that his shipping should be much more vulnerable; some valuable bases are now rather isolated and exposed to eventual capture; and strategic bombing will begin in earnest, probably by the end of the summer or early autumn.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 10057
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 3:51:49 PM   
Lowpe


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Status: offline 		Is this the first time you have definitely claimed Formosa as a target?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 10058
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 4:01:19 PM   
jwolf

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Is this the first time you have definitely claimed Formosa as a target?



From post 10018:

quote:

Regarding Peep Show, I have one division 100% prepped for a major target. I have about three divisions prepping for the beachhead target. They're all around 40% now, so they'll be minimally ready when it's time to go. I have another four or five divisions prepping for non-beachhead targets. They're mostly in the upper 30s. By the time they could conceivably reach their targets, they'll probably be at or close to 100%.

The beachhead target is open terrain that will be in proximity to Aparri's big airfield and others besides. John has the base strongly garrisoned, but it should be hard for him to make a protracted stand against the combined might of the Allied military forces available. He's going to need a Consolidate KB to assist. I bet he brings it in, eventually. This is going to be a tough, noisy and flashy campaign.


Sounds pretty clear the "beachhead target" is on Formosa, although I suppose it's only about 99% certain.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 10059
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 4:45:30 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
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From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Fuel: 1 years stockpile plus. That is greater than 3 million in a scenario 2 game. You should not run out of fuel, as it cannot be destroyed except by spoilage (once stored); and you have great control over how much of it you use. However, most JFB's will run short eventually and obviously much more difficult in a scenario 1 game.


I disagree with the highlighted statement - I am pretty sure I have seen "port fuel hits" results during bombardments.

EDIT: Found an example in my current game:






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 4/26/2017 4:51:52 PM >

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 10060
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 5:04:17 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		BB, I stand corrected. Many thanks!

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 10061
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 5:06:19 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


A few players have posited that John is in good shape economically due to the lack of attrition to his merchant fleet.


That doesn't make sense to me. Japan has so much merchant shipping. Even the Tanker fleet can take a beating and still be more than sufficient.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 10062
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 5:06:35 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Fuel: 1 years stockpile plus. That is greater than 3 million in a scenario 2 game. You should not run out of fuel, as it cannot be destroyed except by spoilage (once stored); and you have great control over how much of it you use. However, most JFB's will run short eventually and obviously much more difficult in a scenario 1 game.


I disagree with the highlighted statement - I am pretty sure I have seen "port fuel hits" results during bombardments.

EDIT: Found an example in my current game:







I just got "port fuel hits" from Jap planes bombing me.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/26/2017 5:09:23 PM >

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 10063
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 5:19:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Formosa may or may not be involved in Peep Show. The operation has morphed a bit, due to opportunities as Fun House developed and its endgame became clear. As a result, I identified new targets and switched preps (mostly from Manila) to new targets several weeks ago. Most of my beachhead assault divisions are now about 40% prepped. The one division that is 100% prepped is targeting the original Peep Show beachhead, which is still a possibility or probability.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 10064
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 5:21:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


A few players have posited that John is in good shape economically due to the lack of attrition to his merchant fleet.


That doesn't make sense to me. Japan has so much merchant shipping. Even the Tanker fleet can take a beating and still be more than sufficient.


I don't mean that John is running short on merchant shipping (I always assume that's almost unlimited, like Japanese fighter planes). Rather, I mean that the Allies have sunk a lot of merchant shipping during the war. I assume that a reasonable amount of fuel and supply went down with those ships, so that there has been an economic impact on Japan. But, as I said above, that's all rather amorphous and hard, from my seat, to quantify.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 10065
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 5:43:46 PM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		Does this mod have more fuel and supplies for the Japanese?

If not, then he's got to be hurting for fuel, which might explain why he's got so many of his remaining capital ships in the fuel well off DEI.

Course, that wouldn't explain his recent actions in SWPAC!

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 10066
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 6:05:57 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Does this mod have more fuel and supplies for the Japanese?

If not, then he's got to be hurting for fuel, which might explain why he's got so many of his remaining capital ships in the fuel well off DEI.

Course, that wouldn't explain his recent actions in SWPAC!

Some urges cannot be suppressed! For John III, striking something valuable but relatively helpless with his carriers is irresistible, but it may come back to haunt him!




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 10067
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 7:19:28 PM   
ushakov

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Some urges cannot be suppressed! For John III, striking something valuable but relatively helpless with his carriers is irresistible, but it may come back to haunt him!

Thinking back on what CR said about getting to play on into 1944 and 45 being a fun new experience for him, I do wonder if John is finding the opposite.

I don't recall any of John's games going beyond mid-43 before, and for someone who's never happier than when he's planning bold offensives, or more motivated than when he's posting detailed accounts of Long Lances SLAMMING into Allied ships, or Yamato's shells POUNDING them (insert multiple Banzais here), I can't help think that he must be finding the meat of the late-war Japanese game - which as Lowpe and others have pointed out is largely about turtling up and extracting what price you can from a series of defeats - to be something of a downer.

Some of the recent developments - John's unwillingness to combine his ships or face-off against Death Star, his strange force compositions in places like Manila, and now this raid - make me wonder if perhaps he's resigned to the main Allied thrust as an inevitable, unstoppable force, and is neglecting a little the parts of the game he finds unappealing (like defensive land war) in favour of pouring his energies into those that enthuse him, like securing tactical naval victories and accelerating his aircraft R&D. Which in turn makes me think that maybe CR might soon be in for some comparatively cheap conquests, if he can get his troops ashore.

< Message edited by ushakov -- 4/26/2017 7:20:09 PM >

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 10068
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 8:17:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Those are good points, some of which have been discussed before. This is what I think of John, his style of play and his current morale.

John is a Navy Guy, as we've said so often before. He's wired for that part of the game above all else. He really enjoys it and is a rollicking, fun opponent. He's capable of doing other things - the economy, the air war (he's pretty good at that, I think), and to an extent the ground war - but sometimes those may languish due to real life, and especially when he's playing multiple games, finding his attention naturally focused on the one in which his navy has all the momentum and then focusing on the navy at the expense of things he doesn't enjoy as much.

His defenses of Burma and Luzon were mishandled, but he's probably learning from those experiences. And his recent handling of his carriers, while counterproductive in some ways (IMO), has complicated my life in other ways, so the jury is still out on how that plays out.

He's intimated in some of his emails that it's hopeless to go up against Death Star. At times, he's probably mentally "given up" the idea of opposing DS for some stretches, just going through the motions, but occasionally re-engaging when he has an idea or a success, as is now the case. He probably isn't aware of the things he can do to slow me down or nip at my heals and strike at the edges, but I suspect his AAR readers are helping him a lot. I think he's listening and applying. And I know eventually he'll orchestrate a massed attack involving kamikazes. That's inevitable.

John has played far into a game at least once, against me in WitP back around '07 or so. We reached late '44, with the Allies at Hokkaido in strength, before we mutually called it a game. We were both involved in other games and ignorantly thought our game was "over," with nothing interesting left to experience. That was naïve. So he doesn't have a great deal of experience in the endgame and probably isn't mentally configured to enjoy that nearly as much. But he may learn to, before it's all over.

He has done a commendable job in sticking with the game. For long stretches it can't have been pleasant for him (dozens of heavy bombings every day, forever and forever), but almost every day a turn arrives. I really appreciate the way he's handle himself.

(in reply to ushakov)
Post #: 10069
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 9:04:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/7/44

Fun House: Allied divisions have closed with scattered elements of the Japanese army in Luzon, or will do so tomorrow.

Peep Show: Death Star remains on station north of Luzon, in good order.

SoPac: Stricken Hermes slipped beneath the waves at Efate, early enough to avoid a KB port strike later in the day (John is probably scratching his head). No other damage done today. I have one damaged CL still in harm's way, but all other Allied shipping seems out of danger.






Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 10070
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 9:53:16 PM   
paullus99


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Status: offline 		So, it looks like the "Mini-KB" is going to be stuck in the DEI / Singers for the duration. I can't see how he's going to get those ships back to the HIs, given your present position.

That removes quite the obstacle.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 10071
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 10:49:46 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Did Japan sweep and bomb Orchid Island?

Have you thought of a strategy for clearing out the riff raff?

I can't see the mini-kb at Singers as a great move. I always got scared if the Allies had detection for more than 2 days in a row, because I figured by the third day everything would be sunk.

Victory points to the right. Victory points to the left. Victory points everywhere! But what move will shorten the war?

It is hard for me to see why you aren't shore bombarding with something along the Luzon coast line? Economy of force, perhaps?



< Message edited by Lowpe -- 4/26/2017 10:50:23 PM >

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 10072
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 11:24:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

So, it looks like the "Mini-KB" is going to be stuck in the DEI / Singers for the duration. I can't see how he's going to get those ships back to the HIs, given your present position.

That removes quite the obstacle.


Mini KB isn't isolated yet. If Death Star is committed to escort duties of an invasion force, or otherwise moves to one side or the other, John has routes to slip Mini KB by the "blockade." When Peep Show gets underway in a few weeks, he'll have a nice window. But if Peep Show is successful, one of his two vectors of egress may close or become very dicey. So he'll be feeling pressure to extract his carriers from the bag before it closes, if he isn't already.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 10073
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 11:29:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Did Japan sweep and bomb Orchid Island? Thus far John hasn't done anything as far as Orchid is concerned.

Have you thought of a strategy for clearing out the riff raff? Yes, mainly involving DE or DD TFs, with PTs available once I have Aparri, Laog or Vigan.

I can't see the mini-kb at Singers as a great move. I always got scared if the Allies had detection for more than 2 days in a row, because I figured by the third day everything would be sunk.

Victory points to the right. Victory points to the left. Victory points everywhere! But what move will shorten the war? Peep Show is a significant step in and of itself, and any move that prompts John to engage in a carrier battle too. But the most important thing is to close on Japan.

It is hard for me to see why you aren't shore bombarding with something along the Luzon coast line? Economy of force, perhaps? The Japanese garrisons on the coast are toast. They are all battered beyond belief. Bombardment TFs aren't necessary, so I don't want to risk capital ships on unnecessary missions where enemy subs and LBA could be an issue. For Peep Show, yes. For Fun House, no (unless Bataan proves to be a booger).




(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 10074
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 11:51:51 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		Sea-wise, close to being a Eastern Imperial Japanese Empire and a Western Imperial Japanese Empire

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/26/2017 11:52:30 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 10075
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/26/2017 11:57:34 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

It is hard for me to see why you aren't shore bombarding with something along the Luzon coast line? Economy of force, perhaps? The Japanese garrisons on the coast are toast. They are all battered beyond belief. Bombardment TFs aren't necessary, so I don't want to risk capital ships on unnecessary missions where enemy subs and LBA could be an issue. For Peep Show, yes. For Fun House, no (unless Bataan proves to be a booger).






Yes, but aren't the airfields potentially dangerous? If there was supply, I wouldn't hesitate to fill them up with SR1 planes for some type of ambush for example. I can think of other uses of the runways too.

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 4/26/2017 11:58:40 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 10076
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/27/2017 12:07:31 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John is low on supply and several of the airfields are heavily damaged. Any sign of enemy air presence will result in massive bombings. I've intentionally left Aparri partly damaged (30%) in hopes that John will bring in a lot of stuff. He can't rail out of there, so any damaged planes will be toast.

He can evacuate cadres by air. I've used LRCAP over Bataan to down a bunch of Tabbies (I think), so he stopped that. He might be pulling some out of the other bases but I don't think it's enough to warrant risking combat ships on low-value (IMO) bombardment missions. I'll need those ships for Peep Show, so risking them for low returns as Fun House winds up is potentially counterproductive.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 10077
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/27/2017 2:30:29 AM   
Mike Dubost

 

Posts: 273
Joined: 8/24/2008
From: Sacramento, CA
Status: offline 		I think those of you who are comparing the SWPac carrier raid to Stuart and Gettysburg and wondering what John is thinking may be missing a more obvious US Civil War analogy.

I think it is much closer to Hood’s response to the March to the Sea. Consider a plausible view from Tokyo. CR has launched a major force into the Philippines, leaving behind him a long SLOC, which likely has vulnerable merchant shipping. Like Hood, John can (in this view) raid the LOC, and raise Cain in the rear. Like Hood, he may hope to draw large forces off the front to deal with his KB.
Given that analogy, can you predict or track his movements? If so, do you have enough available air units to give him his own aerial Battle of Franklin? If so, is it worth the opportunity cost of what else you could be doing with that air?

NOTE, for the benefit of those less familiar with the US Civil War, this is a reference to the events of late 1864.
Having taken Atlanta, Union general William Tecumseh Sherman cut loose from his lines of communication, and took a large force through the state of Georgia to the coast, living off the country. During this March to the Sea, he faced limited and ineffective opposition, in part because of the actions of his Confederate counterpart.
John Bell Hood decided not to use his smaller force directly against Sherman’s troops. Instead, he marched north. His idea was to disrupt Sherman’s LOC, and create trouble in the rear. In the best case, he could even re-take Nashville, and maybe force Sherman or Sherman’s superiors to decide Sherman’s army needed to go back to fight his forces in Tennessee.

A few problems with this idea: 1) as mentioned, Sherman had no LOC 2) Sherman left significant forces behind.
As Hood marched north, he decided to attack a force of Union troops that had temporarily paused in their retreat in the town of Franklin. Hood’s attack decimated his army. The Union forces resumed their retreat to join the main force in Nashville, so Hood had possession of the battlefield. Technically, this made it a Confederate victory, but given the high price and the fact that the Union forces were falling back anyway, it was at best a Pyrrhic victory.
Later, George Thomas routed Hood from Hood's positions around Nashville, and left Hood's army near totally combat ineffective for a time.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 10078
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/27/2017 2:56:45 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Hood's Tennessee campaign is a great analogy. But to complete the analogy, John would have to commit KB against a hardened target like Sydney or Townsville. There I have enough air power to make him pay.

My judgement is that he'll retire the way he came, probably refuel at Truk or Saipan, and rejoin KB around Iwo. I'm vectoring subs to the Truk and Marianas, but that's pretty much a crap shoot.

I wondered whether he might force the Torres Strait to join Mini KB, but the current course suggests not.

P.S. Does anyone here, without looking it up, have the slightest idea how Hood's Army of Tennessee ended up in North Carolina in April 1865 after being torn to pieces at Nashville five months earlier? I wondered about that eight or ten years ago, so researched it. Just one of those obscure chapters in history that never makes the history books or the books, so it was fun to dig and find out.

(in reply to Mike Dubost)
Post #: 10079
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/27/2017 3:27:17 AM   
Mike Dubost

 

Posts: 273
Joined: 8/24/2008
From: Sacramento, CA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hood's Tennessee campaign is a great analogy. But to complete the analogy, John would have to commit KB against a hardened target like Sydney or Townsville. There I have enough air power to make him pay.

My judgement is that he'll retire the way he came, probably refuel at Truk or Saipan, and rejoin KB around Iwo. I'm vectoring subs to the Truk and Marianas, but that's pretty much a crap shoot.

I wondered whether he might force the Torres Strait to join Mini KB, but the current course suggests not.

P.S. Does anyone here, without looking it up, have the slightest idea how Hood's Army of Tennessee ended up in North Carolina in April 1865 after being torn to pieces at Nashville five months earlier? I wondered about that eight or ten years ago, so researched it. Just one of those obscure chapters in history that never makes the history books or the books, so it was fun to dig and find out.



Yep, John would have to attack a target he had no business going after. I was wondering if you could try to set a trap to entice him to do just that. Of course, that would come with an opportunity cost, so it may not be worth it.

As for the route that the Army of Tennessee took, I'm not sure, but I have a vague recollection of reading that they went through East Tennessee, and maybe through southern Virginia. The memory is vague enough that I would not bet more than a nickel on it.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 10080
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