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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/20/2017 4:04:28 PM   
Grfin Zeppelin


Posts: 1515
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Germany
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quote:

ORIGINAL: larryfulkerson


quote:

ORIGINAL: wpurdom

Was working my way through this AAR from the restart up to page 226 when I lost my place. Is there some way to go back to a post # or a page number other than leafing through?

You can edit the address box for a specific page.




Omg thank you so much.

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Post #: 12211
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/20/2017 5:53:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/1/44

I don't have the turn file yet, so just a quick post about a side action of some interest.

SoPac:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Luganville at 120,150, Range 12,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Myoko
CA Haguro
DD Hae
DD Hitonozi
DD Augumo

Allied Ships
LST-705, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

NavSearch had reported an enemy combat TF at Ndeni yesterday, so I disbanded all but one of my LSTs at Luganville into port. I left the one as I wanted to see, if John did raid, the makeup of his TF. This proved to be helpful information. To me (but not to John), the use of CAs down here while he committed four BBs without any cruisers up at Ningpo is curious.

A lot of Allied activity has been going on in SoPac of late - the conquest of Luganville, the conquest of Port Moresby, and a lot of shipping moving around, including a CVE TF that John caught wind of with my blessing. I week or more back, I noted a carrier TF on a SE heading departing the Marianas.

So I figured a raid might be coming. I moved away most of my good ships and increased NavSearch. I have some stuff well to the south of Luganville but nothing larger than a DD or an xAP.

This is a sideline action that to me means nothing one way or the other. There are but two things that John could do right now that would really mess up my ability to prosecute the war: take Ningpo or stop or seriously hamper Death Star and the Herd from bringing supply to Formosa and Coastal China. It would be hard for John to engage at either place. His earlier attempt at Ningpo was so expensive for him that it might have further dampened his ardor for taking a big swing.

But I've noticed over the past 36 hours the serious increase in activity on his AAR, not just by readers but also by him. I think he's up to something, so I've tried to really attend to security all over the place.

(in reply to Grfin Zeppelin)
Post #: 12212
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/20/2017 7:09:08 PM   
DRF99


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Joined: 9/3/2009
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quote:

But I've noticed over the past 36 hours the serious increase in activity on his AAR, not just by readers but also by him. I think he's up to something, so I've tried to really attend to security all over the place.


This should be a line item in the intelligence report.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 12213
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/20/2017 7:53:51 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DRF99

quote:

But I've noticed over the past 36 hours the serious increase in activity on his AAR, not just by readers but also by him. I think he's up to something, so I've tried to really attend to security all over the place.


This should be a line item in the intelligence report.




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If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

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Post #: 12214
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/20/2017 8:00:24 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Interesting - that might represent a few of the last cruisers that John has afloat at this point.

John is probably itching for some kind of action - if I was in your shoes, I would be expecting him to do something, and given the rough treatment he received the last time he tried to hit you in China, I would actually expect he'll go after more vulnerable targets.


_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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Post #: 12215
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/20/2017 8:14:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I probably haven't given readers a good feel for what's going on right now - the enormity and complexity of the operation to bring in supply.

This is the largest and most complex operation since the invasion of Ningpo a month or more back. I had to disengage from the front lines along Coastal China, pick up empties from Luzon, escort the empties to the proximity of the DEI, rendezvous with the inbound TFs, make the switch of empties heading south and loaded ships coming back north with DS, take precautions to then get those empties to the DEI at some risk, and turn Death Star & The Herd around to steam north.

All the while, John was watching; he could work out plans for attacks to overwhelm Ningpo, batter Foochow or the Formosa bases, possibly strike Manila by air, seek to interdict Death Star, or even - if he was really on top of things - to orchestrate an attack on those empties once they detached from Death Star.

While he couldn't do all of those things, he could do some of them. To this point he's tried just one - the attack on Ningpo that was a fairly costly repulse to his BB TF.

Things are beginning to look very promising for the Allied effort. Most of the maximum exposure is in the past now. John tried a big attack and failed. He's running out of calendar to figure out something that might impede the seeming Allied juggernaut. If he fails, inside of a week, Allied merchantmen will be unloading one million supply - enough to handle air ops well into the new year - and a new army at Ningpo or Foochow.

The most important op since Ningpo? This op is probably more important than that one.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 12216
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/20/2017 8:34:53 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I probably haven't given readers a good feel for what's going on right now - the enormity and complexity of the operation to bring in supply.



I don't know about that, the picture with a zillion and one fleets did a pretty good job.

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Post #: 12217
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/20/2017 9:59:02 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		I think this sums up this particular game:

"Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics."


That is all....

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Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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Post #: 12218
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/21/2017 1:04:48 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/2/44

Death Star: Death Star turns and makes for Ningpo. There's still risk of an ambush but it will no longer be close to enemy airfields and distant from friendly ones.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/21/2017 1:59:54 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline 		I once had the game go into what seemed like a continuous loop when I had a fleet of about 800 ships heading to Kyushu in the same hex. Good to know it's handling the above armada.

Paullus has a good point on logistics. Some people wait until they have all ducks in a row in terms of supplies, fuel and overwhelming force (I'm guilty of this), whereas CR manages bold strategic incursions on a relatively shoestring budget. As Patton said, "A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week."

Cheers,
CC

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Post #: 12220
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/21/2017 2:30:59 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/2/44

The decisions! The challenges!

CV Bunker Hill: A number of my carriers are still due for 10/43 upgrades.

I can think of at least two players whose AARs I've followed who would never think of proceeding on this kind of basis. I can think of one who is sure that this was the best course of action available - striking hard, striking deep, foregoing upgrades to push back a reeling opponent.





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Post #: 12221
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/21/2017 2:36:41 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Fancy Pants: Japanese eliminated at Hengyang, and strong Japanese stack at Kukong evicts weak American division.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/21/2017 7:46:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/3/44

The three most important things going on: (1) logistical op to resupply Formosa/China; (2) strategic bombing; (3) China.

With that in mind, this post will deal with the first two, and the next post with the third.

Resupply: Death Star is steaming in good order off the SE coast of Luzon. Some ships will break for Manila now, while most head to Coastal China. To this point, everything has gone remarkably smoothly.

The Empties are nearing Boela now. The period of greatest exposure to danger has closed. If John wants to come after them, he'll have to enter the nest of strong Allied airfields. I doubt he'll do that. He'll be more likely to post combat TFs or carrier TFs in the Solomons, hoping to raid in and pick off juicy TFs. That's not going to happen.

Strategic Bombing: All bombers stood down today, mainly as part of the supply conservation effort. I might schedule another mission or two in the week left before supply arrives at Formosa and at Ningpo.






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/21/2017 7:58:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/3/44

Northern China: For months, the small detachments of Chinese infantry have been working to interdict Japanese roads. I didn't have much confidence that anything would be accomplished up here but things are beginning to happen.

A bit further south, in the Ichang/Sian sector, the Chinese outnumber the Japanese in nearly every hex by about 2:1; but the Japanese are long dug-in. More importantly, I want to keep the Japanese as deep as possible for as long as possible, for the same reasons I pursued that strategy in western China.






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Post #: 12224
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/21/2017 8:25:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/3/44

Fancy Pants: The Allies are on the move from Malaya to northern China; things are progressing nicely; every day or so, an enemy redoubt falls (Hengyang, Wuchow, whatever), freeing up an army to move on to another redoubt.

The Japanese remain strong in certain sectors. There is undoubtedly a strongpoint down the Malaya peninsula; the Kukong/Hong Kong/Canton Pocket packs punch and will take time; and the main point of contention will soon be the Hangchow/Shanghai sector.

At this point, I think the Allies would eventually prevail with the forces at hand. But Death Star is bringing an injection of new men and support units. I'm not sure exactly what's coming, but it may be two or three divisions with a lot of supporting goodies.

But the main thing will be the supply and aviation support needed to fully ramp up air operations.





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Post #: 12225
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/21/2017 8:32:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/3/44

Victory Points: Are creeping up slowly since I stood down most strategic bombing until supply arrives in five or six days. Lots of good things happening on the map, especially in China, but the ground war doesn't usually generate VP in big chunks.

Overall, the Allied lead is almost exactly 30k now. At the present IJ score of 68k, I would need another 39k to achieve victory. Of course, the IJ score will be increasing a bit most likely (although the loss of bases always acts to dampen the IJ score just a bit). But Allied scoring should significantly increase once supply arrives in China/Formosa and the strategic bombing campaign resumes. That's the plan, anyhow.

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Post #: 12226
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/21/2017 8:52:16 PM   
HansBolter


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Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline 		Do you have a feel for how long this resupply will be good for and when you'll have to bring in another allotment, or is it simply dependent on the time it takes the empties to reach a major supply source and return to the theater?

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Hans


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Post #: 12227
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/21/2017 9:05:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think this will be sufficient well into the new year, possibly even until auto victory.

The chief question I have is what happens when the Coastal Chinese Allies meet up with the Interior Chinese, establishing a good road link for supply to come in all the way from Burma. If that flow is sufficient to handle operations in China - and I think it might be - then the Allies may be good for the balance of the war. If Burma can supply China, then the supply aboard the inbound ships should be enough to handle air ops out of Formosa through late winter '45.

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Post #: 12228
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/21/2017 9:24:02 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Joined: 9/11/2016
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quote:

The chief question I have is what happens when the Coastal Chinese Allies meet up with the Interior Chinese


Civil War?

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Post #: 12229
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 1:09:06 AM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

The chief question I have is what happens when the Coastal Chinese Allies meet up with the Interior Chinese


Civil War?


What's so civil about war anyhow?

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Post #: 12230
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 2:59:45 AM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

The chief question I have is what happens when the Coastal Chinese Allies meet up with the Interior Chinese


Civil War?


What's so civil about war anyhow?



What's civil about civilians.

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Post #: 12231
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 10:41:40 AM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		In my experience, as long as you keep dumping loads of supplies into Rangoon, a lot will eventually filter up and down the roads and take care of most of Southeast Asia & Southern China.

If you're still thinking about side operations, establishing a cordon which isolates the remaining resource centers in the DEI from the Home Islands should also be a priority - a series of bases by which you can interdict the remaining sea lanes & prevent the movement of the KB (or any convoys), would be beneficial.

Since you're not going to be landing any significant troops in the Home Islands (just burn that sucker to the ground), preventing the transfer of any remaining resources should be high on your list now.

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Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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Post #: 12232
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 2:27:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Once Death Star makes the supply deliveries to Formosa, Ningpo and Foochow, I think these areas will be self sufficient. IE, they won't need DS's constant presence for security. So where does DS go next?

There is a chance DS will be used offensively to raid enemy shipping or ports or to suppress enemy CAP over major industrial targets in tandem with big 4EB raids. Not sure about this yet but it's under consideration.

Death Star will then escort some 100 LSTs to Miri, where they'll pick up much needed fuel.

The next highest priority will be to handle a few ops in the DEI, for the reasons Paullus just pointed out. Transports have been busy moving forward key elements of the next invasions, including 3rd Australian Division 100% prepped for Manado. That target is probably too strong for just 3rd Division, but with air and sea bombardments it might be possible.

The time frame for all these things should take me well into January.

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Post #: 12233
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 2:32:49 PM   
Lowpe


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Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		My guess is you are going to need more supply.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 2:41:42 PM   
Lecivius


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

My guess is you are going to need more supply.


Agreed.

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Post #: 12235
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 2:47:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I don't have enough experience to really know, but I think it could go either way.

Nevertheless, lots of supply is inbound: big convoys to Oz, regular smaller deliveries to Rangoon.

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 12236
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 4:56:52 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		You can never have enough supply - in my experience, there shouldn't be a single idle allied transport anywhere on the map.

They should all, always, be in route either to pick up supply / fuel, or drop it off.

It gets crazy insane complicated (as we are all well aware), but well worth the time.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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Post #: 12237
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 5:30:54 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		just keep dumping as much as you can in Rangoon. When you think it is enough, double it. Then you won't have anything to worry about in Chine and you might be able to start supplying your other holdings

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 12238
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 5:41:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That's what I've been doing for months: 10 or 15 modestly sized TFs shuttling supply from Calcutta to Rangoon with a few others delivering to Ramree and Akyab. The total supply numbers are pretty impressive. Rangoon to Bangkok and Indochina is more than I need. And Rangoon to Interior China is doing fine.

So the only question remaining is whether that route will also suffice for Coastal China, once I have viable supply corridors. My troops are about to meet in the middle at several places, so the corridors should be open soon.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 12239
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 6:38:32 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		At some point it will really help to secure a more direct route from USA West Coast. Otherwise you will just have to keep moving major battle groups out on convoy escort because you will need more and more supply.

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Post #: 12240
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