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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/13/2013 9:42:00 PM   
MateDow


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Sure, it was a glorious display of big gun firepower (the likes of which the world will never see again). But the mortal blow to the Japanese battleline had already been done.



It's still nice to imagine the line of US battleships pounding a single Japanese target.

Just helping to pad the post count of course.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2161
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/14/2013 3:28:30 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton
At Surigao Straight, the old BBs that were equipped with the very sophisticated MK 8 fire control system did all the shooting and hitting. Those ships using the older MK 3 system might as well have been sitting at the dock for all they were worth.


While this comparison (Mk 3 v. the Mk 8 equipped BBs) is correct and true, it still misses the mark. The greatest impact at Surigao wasn't a surfeit of big gunned battlewagons lobbing hundreds of shells.

The biggest impact at Surigao was the functional torpedoes of the Desrons that attacked the Japanese battleline. A successful surprise attack with functional torpedoes ripped the Fuso in half, damaged Yamashiro and damaged or sank 3 of the Japanese DDs, if memory suits.

Oldendorf's battleships were cleaning up the scraps at that point. Sure, it was a glorious display of big gun firepower (the likes of which the world will never see again). But the mortal blow to the Japanese battleline had already been done.

ETA: Corrected BB names.


Yes, and it should be noted that what working radar the Japanese had at Surigao failed to detect these attacks or the earlier PT attacks. Yes, Japanese ships had radar, but it never was much of anything.

My point about Surigao is the difference between the modern fire control systems and radar systems of the two combatants.

At 03:16, West Virginia's radar picked up the surviving ships of Nishimura's force at a range of 42,000 yd (38,000 m) and had achieved a firing solution at 30,000 yd (27,000 m). West Virginia tracked them as they approached in the pitch black night. At 03:53, she fired the eight 16 in (410 mm) guns of her main battery at a range of 22,800 yd (20,800 m), striking Yamashiro with her first salvo.


Using modern radar and the Mk8 fire control system the West Virginia fired and hit with her very first salvo at over "twelve miles" away. Something that neither side could have pulled off in 1943. I don't know how this translates in game terms but the gulf between the two surface forces had by the time of this battle had become too large for the Japanese to overcome. Technology allowed for the Allies to lengthen the range of engagement to the point where the long lance was no longer a factor.

If anything, I think the game is overly generous to late war Japanese surface forces, but don't really mind due to the fun factor. I have to admit. I love a good surface mix up more than a carrier fight....

_____________________________

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Post #: 2162
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/14/2013 6:19:18 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton
At Surigao Straight, the old BBs that were equipped with the very sophisticated MK 8 fire control system did all the shooting and hitting. Those ships using the older MK 3 system might as well have been sitting at the dock for all they were worth.


While this comparison (Mk 3 v. the Mk 8 equipped BBs) is correct and true, it still misses the mark. The greatest impact at Surigao wasn't a surfeit of big gunned battlewagons lobbing hundreds of shells.

The biggest impact at Surigao was the functional torpedoes of the Desrons that attacked the Japanese battleline. A successful surprise attack with functional torpedoes ripped the Fuso in half, damaged Yamashiro and damaged or sank 3 of the Japanese DDs, if memory suits.

Oldendorf's battleships were cleaning up the scraps at that point. Sure, it was a glorious display of big gun firepower (the likes of which the world will never see again). But the mortal blow to the Japanese battleline had already been done.

ETA: Corrected BB names.


Yes, and it should be noted that what working radar the Japanese had at Surigao failed to detect these attacks or the earlier PT attacks. Yes, Japanese ships had radar, but it never was much of anything.

My point about Surigao is the difference between the modern fire control systems and radar systems of the two combatants.

At 03:16, West Virginia's radar picked up the surviving ships of Nishimura's force at a range of 42,000 yd (38,000 m) and had achieved a firing solution at 30,000 yd (27,000 m). West Virginia tracked them as they approached in the pitch black night. At 03:53, she fired the eight 16 in (410 mm) guns of her main battery at a range of 22,800 yd (20,800 m), striking Yamashiro with her first salvo.


Using modern radar and the Mk8 fire control system the West Virginia fired and hit with her very first salvo at over "twelve miles" away. Something that neither side could have pulled off in 1943. I don't know how this translates in game terms but the gulf between the two surface forces had by the time of this battle had become too large for the Japanese to overcome. Technology allowed for the Allies to lengthen the range of engagement to the point where the long lance was no longer a factor.

If anything, I think the game is overly generous to late war Japanese surface forces, but don't really mind due to the fun factor. I have to admit. I love a good surface mix up more than a carrier fight....

+1
Ever since I got my first plastic battleship model [Iowa], I have been captured by the vision of the great guns blasting away. Too bad the airplane was not delayed 30 years or so in development so the modern BBs could have at each other!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/15/2013 10:47:45 PM   
Canoerebel


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10/30/42

Back in the saddle, but short on time today, so a brief update.

Bay of Bengal: Quincy TF picks off a crippled IJN DD near Ramree Island. Avengers sortie - probably against stricken Mutsu - but CAP chews them up (they didn't have escort). I've moved forward B-25s to Ramree, hoping they'll get a shot tomorrow. Also, subs are hugging the coast - I think Mutsu is so badly damaged she'll head for Rangoon or possibly Georgetown.

Burma: The Australians, Americans and Brits hang tough in open terrain, easily beating back an IJ deliberate attack (250 IJ squads disabled being the only significant damage). In the jungle, the Allies get a solid 1:1 shock attack vs. 21st IJA Div., inflicting much heavier damage on the enemy. I'll try again tomorrow.

Pacific: Over vacation, I"ve decided to proceed with the Allied invasion, come what may. The Allied ships are moving NW and will slide between Lord Howe Island and the Australian mainland. D-Day approximately 12-13 days.

80/53/+11

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 2164
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/16/2013 12:30:46 PM   
Canoerebel


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10/31/42

Bay of Bengal: DD Griffin intercepts the Mutsu TF making slow time towards Rangoon. The DD puts 23 small-caliber shells into the big BB, but in return is sunk. B-25s sortie, but against unprotected shipping at Moulmein, damaging a few xAKs. Allied subs are flooding the area. That's probably my last shot at Mutsu.

Burma: The Allied army shock attacks again, this time drawing a 1:2 that does considerably more damage to IJA 21st Div., which still manages to hold the hex. Over the past two turns, the Allied shock attacks have destroyed 51 combat squads with none disrupted. So 21 Div. is in a bad way, but my troops are too tuckered out to close the deal. They'll rest a few days before trying again.

Pacific: An IJN DD TF sank a flanker xAKL near Lord Howe Island. This enemy force is uncomfortably close to my amphibiuos force, which is now moving northwest. I have to keep my carrier air "on alert" since enemy carriers could be close enough to give battle, so I'm worried that carrier strike aircraft will sortie and thus prematurely give away positive ID of their presence. 4EB in numbers raid Horn Island.

83/50/+10

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2165
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/16/2013 1:33:30 PM   
pws1225

 

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80/53/+11

83/50/+10

More of CR's creepy arithmetic!

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Post #: 2166
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/16/2013 2:27:00 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pws1225

80/53/+11

83/50/+10

More of CR's creepy arithmetic!


Just misplaced keystrokes!

(Always just below his posts, always double digit numbers, which are so easy to hit on the keyboard, now with foreword slashes added and a plus sign)

Yeah, but it's doesn't mean anything. Ooooh, mysteries! It's like those numbers on lost. Maybe something will explode if he doesn't type them each post.

Here are some of my misplaced keystrokes.

w0 fj f84\ f 8_ --

Looks pretty similar, I guess.


_____________________________

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/16/2013 4:24:33 PM   
Justus2


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Maybe it's a daily summary of his win-loss progress in the air war (or a rolling average of his progress in the post-count war with Greyjoy...)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/16/2013 5:21:26 PM   
Nemo121


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I'll take a stab at this.... The first number has been slowly increasing, the second number decreasing by the same amount so they clearly must represent readiness levels. Right now 83 of whatever are ready/in position while 50 aren't. My guess is the third number is the countdown to when whatever it is will be unleashed.

The other alternative is that it represents a distance countdown, 83 hexes travelled, 50 to go. The relatively steady rate of increase of the 1st number ( 3 per game day ) seems to argue for something like that but then the +10 doesn't make sense as, at a rate of 3 hexes per day, whatever it is won't reach 133/0 @ +0.

So, I'm guessing an accounting of units/ships ready to do something as well as your ETA for whenever that something will happen. At this rate the 10th November 1942 should be fairly interesting.

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Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 2169
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/16/2013 6:00:42 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

I'll take a stab at this.... The first number has been slowly increasing, the second number decreasing by the same amount so they clearly must represent readiness levels. Right now 83 of whatever are ready/in position while 50 aren't. My guess is the third number is the countdown to when whatever it is will be unleashed.

The other alternative is that it represents a distance countdown, 83 hexes travelled, 50 to go. The relatively steady rate of increase of the 1st number ( 3 per game day ) seems to argue for something like that but then the +10 doesn't make sense as, at a rate of 3 hexes per day, whatever it is won't reach 133/0 @ +0.

So, I'm guessing an accounting of units/ships ready to do something as well as your ETA for whenever that something will happen. At this rate the 10th November 1942 should be fairly interesting.


Yeah, it's definitely about the operation coming up. Maybe +10 ten days to landing but the other numbers will change their relationship to each other. Originally it was only on two digit number. Such a puzzle.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/16/2013 6:02:37 PM   
Nemo121


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The progression of the single number matches the later progression of the 1st number in the triad. Hence I'm sure they're actually measuring the same thing and simply a continuance. In any case, in a few days time there will be explosions and cool stuff a'happenin'.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 2171
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/16/2013 8:20:18 PM   
pws1225

 

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Here's the entire progression of numbers as best that I can see. They are listed in game date order:

10/22: 37
10/23: 42
10/24: 48
10/25: 56
10/26: 59
10/27: 64
10/28: 71
10/29: 77/57
10/30: 80/53+11
10/31: 83/50+10

Back on 10/22, CR was holding his invasion TFs in the "black hole" west of New Zealand. On the 23 his post indicates that all ships are in place and he was waiting to be sure the KB was far away. Sure looks like a countdown of some sort.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/16/2013 10:54:12 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pws1225

Here's the entire progression of numbers as best that I can see. They are listed in game date order:

10/22: 37
10/23: 42
10/24: 48
10/25: 56
10/26: 59
10/27: 64
10/28: 71
10/29: 77/57
10/30: 80/53+11
10/31: 83/50+10

Back on 10/22, CR was holding his invasion TFs in the "black hole" west of New Zealand. On the 23 his post indicates that all ships are in place and he was waiting to be sure the KB was far away. Sure looks like a countdown of some sort.

Ooooo - NSA is going to have fits over this code! Since it has been commented on by people in at least two countries [England and Canada], there must surely be a conspiracy afoot ... or asea!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/17/2013 4:29:58 AM   
Canoerebel


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11/01/42

SWPac: The huge concentration of amphibious ships continues up the east coast of Oz, drawing some detection for several TFs. The carriers are trailing by ten hexes to guard against ambush. Huge concentrations of land-based fighters will provide LRCAP as the ships move up the coast. D-Day roughly ten days. 4EB hit Horn Island and find massed Tojo CAP.

Bay of Bengal: Japanese bombers concentrate on Ramree, doing modest damage to the airfield.

Burma: B-25s refuse to fly from Cox's Bazaar (they were to target the units in the hex with 41st USA Div. and the two Aussie Divs.)

88/48/+7

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 3:20:00 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/02/42

SWPac: The main concentration of amphibious TFs (and some powerful combat TFs) is just SE of Brisbane and will pass that city tonight. The carriers are trailing. Lots of pickets and flankers to the front. Somehow, Japanese patrols fail to pick up a single TF today - even the flankers that are well of the coast towards New Caledonia. This is good! The first targets will be Horn Island, Terapo and Port Moresby. I feel certain a big carrier battle will take place. If all goes well, the Allies will immediately move on to Merauke, Gove and Sale. After unloading, the ships will retire to Cairns and Townsville to pick up the second wave troops bound for Milne Bay and the islands offshore. No disturbing SigInt or signs of base building, but still lots of enemy TFs and fighters in theater. D-Day should be no more than 10 days away.

Bay of Bengal: Enemy bombers concentrate on Ramree Island, doing medium damage.

Burma: 18th IJA Div. joins the beleaugered 21st Div. in the jungle. 21st is in ruins, so John may pull it back. I need to go through my notes to find out if 18th is new to theater (I hope so - feeding more fresh meat into the grinder!) or one previously engaged elsewhere. 18th UK Div. is perhaps 14 days away from joining this stack, at which time the Allies should readily reduce the new enemy division.

91/44/+4/36

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 3:38:55 PM   
pws1225

 

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Good stuff in CR's and John's AARs. Lots of fun to follow.

But CR's math just keeps getting stranger and stranger:

91/44/+4/36

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 6:29:57 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/3/42

SWPac: Japanese patrols pick up many of the TFs embedded in the amphibious armada as it moves north of Brisbane. Things should heat up pretty quick now. The Allied TFs will hug the coast to take advantage of LRCAP. Lots of enemy activity at a variety of bases, but no sign of the KB or major combat ships. Final adjustments made to carrier air squadrons. Over on the west coast, the large "feint" TF is moving well NW of Perth, but hasn't yet been picked up by enemy patrols. This feint isn't likely to work, but "just in case." Also, three Allied DDs are within shouting distance of Cocos, so they can sprint forward in a few days to (hopefully) further confuse John. D-Day in nine days. Gulp time.

Bay of Bengal: Quiet except for modest enemy air raids vs. Ramree. BB Ramilles is still parked at Chittagong. I'll send her to Colombo (and thence to Capetown) in a few days.

Burma: Nothing major today as both sides seem to be shifting and gathering for the next probes/attacks. 18th UK Div. roughly 13 days away from joining the main force on the road between Akyab and Ramree.

94/41/+4/32

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 7:02:51 PM   
Cribtop


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My gut is not entirely sanguine about this. John has 9 days to react, we know at least some of the target bases are well defended, and it's still 1942. If KB is anywhere nearby and John assembles a bunch of LBA, things could get bloody, CR. Then again, if KB is too far away, you should pull this off with acceptable losses. 9 days is a long time, though.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 7:07:22 PM   
Canoerebel


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I know what you mean. These are the tough decisions. What tips the scales, in my mind, is that Japan has committed so many divisions now - and had so many beaten up - that defending on the ground is going to prove problematic for John. Too, I need to open up a second air war to relieve some of the pressure from Burma. New Guinea is an excellent "second air front." I think there's going to be hot-and-heavy naval action, but the Allies are close to home ports and LRCAP and I also have all the slow (and three fast) BBs present. So I think the Allies can absorb alot of punishment while dealing out even more. In summary, the factors coalesce to make this the time to move in force.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 7:12:18 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

My gut is not entirely sanguine about this. John has 9 days to react, we know at least some of the target bases are well defended, and it's still 1942. If KB is anywhere nearby and John assembles a bunch of LBA, things could get bloody, CR. Then again, if KB is too far away, you should pull this off with acceptable losses. 9 days is a long time, though.



+1 Dan

The KB will win a CV match in late 42 8-out-of-10 times. Be carefull

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 9:56:03 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

My gut is not entirely sanguine about this. John has 9 days to react, we know at least some of the target bases are well defended, and it's still 1942. If KB is anywhere nearby and John assembles a bunch of LBA, things could get bloody, CR. Then again, if KB is too far away, you should pull this off with acceptable losses. 9 days is a long time, though.



+1 Dan

The KB will win a CV match in late 42 8-out-of-10 times. Be carefull

I'm not so sure about that. KB has had its air groups decimated twice, and may not have pilots of the same experience now. That, and John's tendency to get too aggressive [high react setting] may suck him into the area where Australian based air can help out.
A further factor is that KB will have so many juicy targets their strikes will be scattered around.

As always, weather over the TFs of both sides may be a big factor. Love the tension in this situation!

_____________________________

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 9:59:13 PM   
Canoerebel


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John's challenge will be the need to come around the corner and fight between New Guinea and Oz (he can't take the chance of sitting off Buna since the Allies could sail right past Horn Island to hit Merauke without opposition, which I would indeed do). He'll face the task of 4EB on naval attack whinnowing down his CAP. Also, his damaged ships will have to run a long, sub-infested gauntlet back to Rabaul. IE, there's lots of intangibles in favor of the Allies.

P.S. My imagination and fears always tend to master my decision-making at this point, so I'm having to fight against the urge to get cold feet too. :)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 10:04:24 PM   
paullus99


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I betcha John will be itching for a fight based on his recent reverse in the Indian Ocean....if you can get him into a fight on your terms, you'll be in good shape.

Just don't let him pull an 8-hex strike on you, if you can avoid it. That's what kept killing Andy.

_____________________________

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 10:33:51 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
SWPac: The huge concentration of amphibious ships continues up the east coast of Oz, drawing some detection for several TFs. The carriers are trailing by ten hexes to guard against ambush.


This from a couple of days ago. Don't you worry that trailing the amphibious TFs by 10 hexes is too great a distance to guard against ambush? Why not have them in proximate or same hex TFs?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 10:44:46 PM   
Canoerebel


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They're much closer now, but I'm worried about John springing his carriers forward from the big blind spot (no patrol coverage) in the middle Coral Sea. The invasion is critical, but my carriers are even more critical. Too, a KB attack against the amphibious ships now could be disastrous for John. LRCAP from Brisbane, Bundaberg, Rockhampton, etc. could seriously attrit his carrier air. I even have Spitfires providing coverage. :)

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Post #: 2185
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 10:50:53 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I betcha John will be itching for a fight based on his recent reverse in the Indian Ocean....if you can get him into a fight on your terms, you'll be in good shape.

Just don't let him pull an 8-hex strike on you, if you can avoid it. That's what kept killing Andy.


It would not do so much now without the 8 hex Judy D4Y3. The earliest he could have that would be mid-43. Well, actually I don't know in this mod, but I doubt it's out there yet.

_____________________________

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 10:54:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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I'm casually familiar with the "8-hex gambit," but I confess that I'm not sure why people fear it so much. I know an IJ carrier attack, if coordinated from eight hexes, is deadly, but isn't it very, very hard for an IJ player to arrange for a battle at that distance? It would seem to involve alot of guesswork, right?

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Post #: 2187
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/18/2013 11:36:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/4/42

SWPac: The New Guinea/Horn Island invasion moves forward and will pass Rockhampton tonight. More than 100 land-based fighters will provide LRCAP from Bundaberg and Rockhampton. Carrier fighters are set to provide LRCAP if needed. Flankers are in front of the amphibious TFs. The enemy is picking up detection of both the main TFs and the picket/flanker ships, so John is probably fully alerted now. Cooktown airfield goes to level three, which should help with CAP and bombing forward. No SigInt of interest in the past three or four days, nor is there much transport activity. Perhaps John is truly running low on troops, given the vast number committed to Burma.

Bay of Bengal: Modest air raids against Ramree. Otherwise quiet.

Burma: No changes. I think 18th UK Div. will be in action in about ten days.

92/35/+2/26

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Post #: 2188
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/19/2013 12:53:50 AM   
Justus2


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

My gut is not entirely sanguine about this. John has 9 days to react, we know at least some of the target bases are well defended, and it's still 1942. If KB is anywhere nearby and John assembles a bunch of LBA, things could get bloody, CR. Then again, if KB is too far away, you should pull this off with acceptable losses. 9 days is a long time, though.



+1 Dan

The KB will win a CV match in late 42 8-out-of-10 times. Be carefull


I think the key here is that Dan doesn't have to win the CV match (although that's always nice). As long as he doesn't lose in a one-sided ambush, he can still accomplish his objective. Even if KB wins in a straight-up CV fight, he is likely to lose a lot of his air, and likely one or more carriers (or at least damaged and out of action for a long time). Dan can replace his losses (and repair damage much more easily). More importantly, those strikes will not be going against Dan's transports. The real strategic objective (the 2nd air front) could still be accomplished.

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Playing/Learning Shadow Empire


(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2189
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/19/2013 1:42:26 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
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I agree, my concern is with the ambush possibility. I think Chickenboy above said that KB's strikes will be dissipated amongst all the Allied TFs. This is true, but the reverse of the medal is the danger that KB and LBA will catch one or two fat TFs without a corresponding Allied counterattack. This isn't the likeliest outcome, but it is a decent possibility.

Dan is smart to stick near the Aussie coast and keep open the westward juke toward Meruake. This minimizes the risk to the invasion TFs. However, IMHO be careful once you choose to go for the original targets. That will be the moment of danger, away from LRCAP and with the Papuan Peninsula's unique geography arguably flipping from helping the Allies to neutral or even helping the Japanese.

Still, I'm expressing concern about operational risks, not arguing for an abort at this point. Plus, from a reader perspective, this will be awesome!

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(in reply to Justus2)
Post #: 2190
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