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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 3:32:36 PM   
pws1225

 

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From: Tate's Hell, Florida
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quote:

89/17/[+/-2]/17


Geez, plus OR minus 2? CR's code is solving quadratics now. Lawyer math is very strange stuff.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 4:03:14 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

But I must admit that I would not be above trying to bait John into a big carrier battle just off the coast of Oz, where I have the benefit of both massed LRCAP and nearby ports to handle damaged ships, while he would have no friendly ports closer than Rabaul to handle his cripplies (as I have lots of 4EB in Oz).

Well you do have a slight advantage in the John may have to decide between your carriers and your landing force. Advantages/disadvantages with both. On the other hand I don't know if you will be able to provide enough air cover for the landing force if his LBA is particularly strong. I suppose it's time

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 2222
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 4:10:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Sometimes, creating a pressure cooker results in unexpected opportunities when an opponent, chomping at the bit and anxious to clobber, makes a mistake or misreads the situation or forgets to issue some tiny but critical order (leaving carrier planes on "training" missions, or a thousand other things). Of course, I can't count on any particular thing happening; but I know from lots of past experience that pressure + proximity = an environment in which mistakes thrive.

There's always the chance that I'll be the one making the critical mistake or mistakes, but we'll see.

John is clearly chomping at the bit (as I read things). What if my carriers, combat ships and amphibious ships park near Townsville and sit for a day...two days...three days...etc? Is John so confident of success - and so anxious to administer a telling blow - that he moves improvidently? I think something like that might happen.

I also think there's a very strong chance that the picture will clear significantly by tomorrow (if not, the day after). By then, we should each know what we have and where most things are and if battle odds seem favorable. While there are countless uncertainties creating butterflies in my stomach, all the info I have at hand gives me as much confidence as I could possibly have under the circumstances. The Allies are coming. The Allies are ready to wage war. I just need to know if John is ready. If he is, kudos to him.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 4:19:28 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		One option, which you have raised, is particularly attractive: Moving in close to maximise LRCAP and just waiting, daring him to come for you. I doubt he'd be able to resist lashing out. You'd have to be careful to avoid clustering and giving him a target for a night-time SC TF raid but why not just put everything in your favour ( LBA, LRCAP, proximity to ports etc) and wait him out. daring him to lose patience and lash out in a situation which is rather more in your favour than his.

After all what does it matter if those bases get invaded in 3 days or 10 days if KB's pilots are wiped out and you have gained a strategic respite for the next 2 to 3 months?

quote:

If he is, kudos to him.


Really? You can't believe that surely? You've clearly been stacking the deck in your favour for a battle to occur on your terms for some time now and I don't believe that you truly believe that engaging someone when they've stacked the deck entirely in their own favour deserves kudos? Is it welcome? Yes... welcome in the same way as the old maxim "Never interrupt an opponent when they're making a mistake." Deserving of kudos? Hell no.

You've been very careful not to interrupt him as he is making this mistake. Of course with die rolls there's no sure thing but this is ALL stacked in your favour. The question is whether John sees that or if he is just overcome with lust to the point of losing control and reason --- I believe that as in his past it'll be the latter.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 6/20/2013 4:24:54 PM >

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Well, that's that settled then.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 4:28:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		By "kudos to him" I mean this: We players do our dead-level best to formulate a good plan; it takes weeks and months to gather and prep the assets; we create feints (Aluetians, NoPac, Cocos Island, whatever); we sift through SigInt and patrol reports for evidence that our opponent is or isn't prepared; we monitor activity elsewhere on the map to glean what information we can; then the plan is implemented, we continue to monitor and watch and sift and glean; everything thing available continues to tell us that things look good....then, if under those circumstances, our opponent has pulled a maskirvoka so detailed and so effective that not a single warning bell was sounded...well, in those circumstances we just have to tip our caps to a nimble and crafty opponent.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 5:01:48 PM   
Nemo121


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Status: offline 		Precisely my point. In that case it's kudos to you and something else for him for being the dope who got roped ;-).

I think people are seriously underestimating what you've prepared... And I amn't referring to anything you've told us.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 2226
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 5:29:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Continuing my previous thought (just to clarify that I'm not replying to Nemo's point yet):

Right before the Second Battle of Assam, I had the opportunity to order my ships at Akyab to flee. I weighed all the factors at hand and ultimately decided to commit them to a battle against a Japanese navy that appeared to be coming in overwhelming force (it wasn't overwhelming, but all indications said it was). My decision wasn't predicated on "victory disease" or "overconfidence" or "impatience." I simply made an informed decision based upon a weighing of all the information at my disposal. After making the decision, I wrote that I was "at peace" with it - come what may, I felt it was right. And had John emerged from that clash victorious, I would have had to tip my cap to him. IE, I wouldn't have been chagrined or embarrassed or mortified, but rather satisfied that I had given it my best.

The same things hold true in this situation. I've approached this carefully and done my utmost to create conditions in which the Allies can succeed. There is an absence of the kinds of signals or intel or information that would lead me to believe John was prepared in a way I wasn't allowing for. I am committed to the plan and I am satisfied that I have given it my best. The gleanings from SigInt and patrols uniformly confirm that decision. So, if John has configured a strong response in a way that eluded SigInt, patrols, flankers, pickets ships, subs, etc., I really will have to tip my cap to him.

Back in July 1942 in my first AE match against Miller, he killed me in a big carrier clash near Luganville. In that case, I was embarrassed and chagrined because I had done so much wrong and shouldn't have been there in the first place. That was on me (though Miller too deserved his own share of plaudits). This time, though, I've done my best and I'm ready to see how it unfolds.

(in reply to Nemo121)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 5:33:52 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		This will be interesting. Now it all depends on the tactics and psychology. The strategic choices have been made.

Psychologically I think CR is in control, where he wants to be, for now. If John waits, and is patient, makes sure you commit, he may also turn this foray into a massive reinforcement of NE OZ. You can't sit around with troops on those ships forever getting more and more disrupted and fatigued (if indeed there are troops on those ships).

Tactically I'm sure you have a good plan, but good plans must also adapt to the opponent's moves. Will he strike? We don't know yet.

I do know where I'd rather be sitting right now if I were playing this game.

98/08/-4=2+5/12

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 5:37:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		My troop disablement after a month at sea is running from the 20s to the 40s. That's a concern, but the Allies have a truly vast number of troops committed to each target. Also, I have the necessary BBs, AKEs, AEs, and 4EB to ensure long-term pounding of any target that proves tougher to crack than anticipated.

Based upon months of SigInt and other information, I have a pretty good idea what I will face on the beaches. The Allies are (I believe) coming in overwhelming force.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 5:52:17 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Status: offline 		What's the fuel state at the northern Oz bases? So many times it comes down to loiter capability.

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The Moose

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 5:54:53 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		A significant element of this operation was prepositioning fuel (plus AKE and AE) to handle ships as they finished the long, long haul from West Coast. I had AO and TK coming from Capetown, USA, Tahiti, etc. Right now, Sydney is flush with tankers carrying fuel. As the front line "rolls up the coast," clearing out the rear area, the tankers can move up to Brisbane and then Townsville. Fuel and ammo shouldn't be a problem for the good guys.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 6:13:12 PM   
Cribtop


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From: Lone Star Nation
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
My real main concern is that John knows where you are and you don't fully know where he is.


Gentlemen,

A reminder about OPSEC please. CR doesn't know what he doesn't know. What he doesn't 'fully' know should not be reiterated. As far as he's concerned, he fully knows what he fully knows.

God, I sound like Rumsfeld.


Just to clarify, I'm not reading John's AAR. My statements were based solely on Dan's reports that John's patrol planes had ID'd his amphib armada and the knowledge that given the bases in his possession, Dan's patrols can't see all of the Coral Sea. If John's usual split KB is all that's there, Dan wins. Problem is, Dan can't know that there isn't more. Further, I'm worried about the invasion fleet being sighted at D Minus 9. Run the compass over the map and look at how far CVs can travel at 8 hexes per day for 8 days, with one to re-fuel. Finally, consider the number of LBA that John can get in range in that time IF he has his bases configured (logistics may not be his strong suit, so who knows).

I agree with Nemo that waiving a red flag in front of the bull while you linger near NE Oz would be potentially a very winning ploy given John's personality.

Further, if Nemo's correct and you're pulling a huge GreyJoy-esque "here is a screenshot of the invasion" move, then I tip MY cap to YOU.

On another note, was there ever a more impactful post on the boards than GJ's famous reveal? I can't think of one.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 7:10:17 PM   
Lomri

 

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Yeah I look forward to seeing what is really going on here ;)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 7:55:21 PM   
Encircled


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quote:

On another note, was there ever a more impactful post on the boards than GJ's famous reveal? I can't think of one.


No idea, but reading the Greyjoy/Radar AAR made me want to play this game, so thats a massive plus for me

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 8:01:32 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
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From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Dan being Dan, I suspect he's doing exactly what he says he is. If he's not, imagine if the forces moving around NW Oz are the real invasion. If he grabs a bunch of bases in the DEI on the cheap, bye bye Oil! Wouldn't that be fun? Still, I doubt it.

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Post #: 2235
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 9:13:07 PM   
Knucles2

 

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Status: offline 		This must be what it was like for Nimitz, waiting on word from Midway....
The waiting is killer.

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Post #: 2236
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 9:16:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I sent the turn to John an hour ago. I expect him to get home from work within an hour, though his schedule frequently gets disrupted by additonal time at work. So, it's possible we can get a turn in before I shut down for the day in about three hours. I'm hoping so. :)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 9:19:17 PM   
Sangeli


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From: San Francisco
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
But I must admit that I would not be above trying to bait John into a big carrier battle just off the coast of Oz, where I have the benefit of both massed LRCAP and nearby ports to handle damaged ships, while he would have no friendly ports closer than Rabaul to handle his cripplies (as I have lots of 4EB in Oz).

But I really feel a pressing need to open a second air front, and I feel pretty darn confident that John, in his aggressiveness, will make some mistakes in opening the battle that will create opportunities to punish the enemy.


I see a number of things wrong with this.
1. While you have the OZ shipyards, they are not big enough to accommodate the Lexington class carriers. The ideal place to have a carrier battle as the Allies in the CenPac because of the short distance to Hawaii if you're just looking at shipyards.
2. LRCAP is not all that effective, especially as the range increases. I'm not sure exactly how many Bettie losses John has taken this game but the combination of LRCAP, lack of surprise, and troop laded ships is *not* a good combination in late 1942. Even if he takes heavy losses, the few that get through can cause serious havoc.
3. AFAIK you haven't really disrupted his bases with air attacks. This would be entirely different if his air bases were under attack; then it wouldn't matter as much that he knows you're coming because he can't stop you. I'm not entirely sure on the status of his bases since I haven't seen combat reports for them.
4. You'll have plenty of time to open more fronts when you get those CVE rolling out enmasse and you can be more aggressive over his air bases.

Maybe John makes a mistake, but you need to be near perfect to pull this off IMO. Given his timidity so far, I imagine he is waiting for you to get closer before he commits. I then expect he'll launch a large scale attack from ground based planes and if that goes well enough, he'll send in the KB.

But hey, if you go through with it against my advice then at least it will be interesting :)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 9:23:18 PM   
AcePylut


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

After all what does it matter if those bases get invaded in 3 days or 10 days if KB's pilots are wiped out and you have gained a strategic respite for the next 2 to 3 months?



Here's a counter: What if he reinforces those bases enough in the 3-7 day 'waiting' span such that the invasions fail. He'll have gained a respite for the next 2-3 months, at which time his KB pilots should be restocked.

That's the beauty of this game. Go/NoGo


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 9:37:37 PM   
Nemo121


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Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Crib top,

I'm not suggesting Dan is pulling a Greyjoy. I just think that in addition to what he's told us he has also done the logistical groundwork to properly support this strategy - which includes things he most definitely hasn't told us about. I think there are OPSEC leaks to John3rd which is why I didn't say this till a clash was clearly inevitable ( I don't read John3rds AAR).

Acepylut,
Simple answer.... Logistics and prep. Dan has prepped this enough that even such a delay won't stop his landings succeeding. The only danger now is terrible luck scuppering even hs superior plans. I not think that'll happen though and t worst we'll have a tactical draw which is also a US win.


Dan has clearly improved significantly. When last he played you didn't see the use of declinations of combat, his use of negative space and actions and the meta aspect of using the AAR as a component of his maskirovka strategy with the forumites unwittingly functioning as an arm of the maskirovka - hell he wouldn't have used the word maskirovka ;-). He's been doing some reading and development. I find it rather impressive actually. To be honest it makes me think he'd be rather interesting and challenging to play.

The use of meta, evident and hidden strands as well as both positive and negative space and actions has been really quite impressive.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 2240
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 9:37:45 PM   
Knucles2

 

Posts: 37
Joined: 1/8/2012
Status: offline 		I suppose I can do more work on the 'first turn clickfest' for my game,just to kill some time. Just finished the sub clicks in the PI. Still have to scatter the rest of the ships. Then there's the AF to deal with. And the army. Then I can do more of the same in the US. Pilot training...Shifting army and marines where i need them.. Then there's the DEI...And Oz...Burma..

I better stop before
I talk myself out of playing again...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2241
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 9:41:31 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Dan,

What sort of airpower do you have on hand for LRCAP work at Townsville, Charter Towers and surrounds? You've not reviewed your LBA OOB with us in this region.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 9:42:59 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Whatever Nemo said sounds complimentary, but that's a level of thought above mine. I'm just innocently playin' the game....

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Post #: 2243
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 9:44:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Right now, Townsville, Charters, and Cairns support roughly 200 fighters - mostly Spitfire, P-40E, Kittyhawk, and P-39. I think John will be very, very leery of taking on LBA. He did so at Perth roughly eight months ago and the KB got clobbered.

There is also a host of 1EB, 2EB and 4EB spread from Rockhampton to Cooktown.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2244
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 9:58:40 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Nemo, I see, I misunderstood what you were saying.

I believe I understand what you mean by positive and negative space actions, but could you define those terms so I'm sure?

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Post #: 2245
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 10:02:14 PM   
pws1225

 

Posts: 1166
Joined: 8/9/2010
From: Tate's Hell, Florida
Status: offline 		Going OT to Nemo121 - care to educate me on positive and negative space, or point to a resource where I can dig for myself?


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Post #: 2246
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 10:03:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I have zero idea what positive and negative space actions are.

P.S. That comes as no surprise to those who witnessed the "jsigint" debacle several months ago.....

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/20/2013 10:04:13 PM >

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Post #: 2247
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 10:05:55 PM   
Knucles2

 

Posts: 37
Joined: 1/8/2012
Status: offline 		I hope we're now waiting for those candy junkies in Strawberry 12 for a first contact report...

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Post #: 2248
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 10:06:27 PM   
pws1225

 

Posts: 1166
Joined: 8/9/2010
From: Tate's Hell, Florida
Status: offline 		I thought CR's number sequences were metaphysical, and now I have positive and negative space to deal with. This game makes my brain hurt.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2249
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/20/2013 10:42:49 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		I am familiar with the terms in the artistic and architectural worlds, and that gives me some idea in the military realm, but want to confirm my understanding as Nemo's thinking is useful and has upped my game significantly.

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