Lowpe
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Alfred
I didn't call it stupid. I said the smart move is not to invade Honshu. You are taking VPs into account and there are far easier and more effective ways for the Allies to acquire the necessary VPs than landing on Honshu in 1944.
1. The threat to land on Honshu necessitates a substantial march to the rear by the Imperial forces. This weakens the Empire everywhere else. Hugh amounts of VPs are available from recapturing the weakened perimeter and centre of the Empire. Not just VPs for the Allies but the huge loss of VPs to the Japanese denominator.
2. The mistake that Allied players consistently make when conducting their strategic bombing of the Home Islands is that they do not eliminate the non HI economic centres. That means not just the sea borne trade but also the overland trade must be dried up as well. In the game the economic pools are global, unlike real life. Significant Japanese economic activity occurs outside of the Home Islands. Whilst that economic activity occurs and sea borne trade from Korea remains alive, the impact of strategic bombing is reduced as the reduction of the global pools is slowed down. The short hop from Korea cannot be totally stopped unless the Korean ports are in Allied hands. Bear in mind your opponent does not know whether you have successfully created the magical highway.
3. Honshu does not provide flanking opportunities; neither on land nor on sea. Other than the 4 cities on the Kanto Plain, everything else entails one frontal Allied assault after another frontal assault always against good defensive terrain. Plus the garrison requirements cannot be overlooked. Every single game where every Home Island city has been captured required (a) the use of the Soviets and (b) just about every other American and Commonwealth substantial combat LCU. Your opponent will not have the Soviets on side (unless he does that end run to Korea) and he hasn't liberated the SRA, and China to free up Allied troops. To attempt Honshu whilst substantial Imperial assets remain outside of Japan proper leaves him open to local counter attacks aimed at economic and logistic objectives which counter balance the strategic bombing of the Home Islands.
4. Hokkaido brings much of the Honshu industrial base into direct daylight bombing range, and the whole of it for night bombing. The industrial centres in the west on Kyushu and Shikoku can be addressed via the Marianas and Luzon. But even these are not the most attractive next invasion homeland sites. That belongs to Sakkhalin Island. Once Hokkaido is fully occupied (which I did say was lost) the short hop from there to Sakkkhalin using some of the then unoccupied units from Hokkaido makes a lot of sense and is achievable at very low risk to the Allies. With a 45:1 multiplier in favour of the Allies, the two Sakkhalin bases are juicy morsels, not overlooking their economic value. After that operation the Kuriles should be starving having been cut off from resupply for a few months, so those bases will also be very ripe for capture.
5. Honshu is a large Allied POW camp if the initial landing is limited to a single beach. This is why the 4 Kanto Plain cities are so important. However this is still early 1944, the great Allied invasion capabilities are not yet available. Enough sea lift for one contested landing, yes. For two, perhaps but not for four simultaneous landings where he does not yet hold air supremacy over the landing sites. That air supremacy will take longer than 2 months to acquire. September 1944 is when most of the Allied CVEs undergo a huge boost to their flak. It is therefore October 1944 when the threat to Honshu becomes realistic. Before then the Allies would have had plenty of time to take out Sakhalin, Mindanao, Luzon, Java, Sumatra, Borneo, Malaya etc.
Alfred
Great analysis. I used stupid, because it is the opposite of smart, poor word choice on my part. Sorry for that wrong attribution.
I still think he is going to invade. He doesn't have your breadth of experience and knowledge. Great point about the global nature of industry, and he could certainly be bombing a lot of industry outside of Japan, but hasn't, in fact could have bombed the industry within 9 hexes of Kushiro with Jugs sweeps and daylight bombing, but hasn't. Now with Franks online, I plan to put up some resistance there. Or try to. In two months or less I get big enlargement to my fighter forces and AA.
I suspect once the Franks show up, he will resort to massed night bombing of my runways. Unfortunately, I don't have enough night fighters to stop that tactic, and give marginal protection to the industry.
September for an invasion... hm, I am going to stick by guess that it is coming in two months. He has gone for massed big invasions early, I see no reason why he won't continue that. He didn't wait for Corsairs on his carriers, I can't see him waiting for flak upgrades to CVE.
However, I still plan on defending the Bonins, to Daito to Naha to Luzon and fight and in Indochina.
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RE: Unorthodox - 
It can fight much better than the Oscar IV, short by only 1 hex in range than the Oscar IV. 
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