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RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 9:34:04 PM   
guanotwozero

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 12/27/2013
Status: offline 		Mind you, according to some, the Kuznetsov may be more of a liability than an asset.

(in reply to mx1)
Post #: 211
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 9:37:56 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		Yeah, that's what I saw. Wow, well that complicates things a bit, don't it? I'm trying to find out what her total group's OOB might be. From what I've seen, it's five to six amphibs and support ships, a Udaloy, and possibly the Neustrashimyy and Pyotr Velikiy?

It all sounds fairly anemic, thus far. Kuznetsov is apparently overdue, and in bad need of overhaul and refit. She's heavily rusted, and operating with only a handful of Su-33s. The Pyotr Velikiy's condition, (and general presence) is unknown/unconfirmed. The single Neustrashimyy and a Udaloy isn't much of an escort if that's all left.

I need you guys to put some feelers out so I can add this to the scenario...

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Post #: 212
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 9:55:14 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		"The naval group includes the heavy aircraft carrying cruiser Soviet Union Fleet Admiral Kuznetsov, the large anti-submarine ship Admiral Levchenko, the large assault ship Olenegorsky Gornyak, as well as support vessels such as the rescue towboat Nikolai Chiker and the tankers Sergei Osipov and Kama," the Northern Fleet's spokesman, Captain 1st Rank Vadim Serga, told Interfax-AVN on Tuesday.

http://rbth.com/news/2013/12/17/aircraft_carriers_of_russias_northern_fleet_head_to_atlantic_and_mediter_32653.html

Hmm so of the five escorts, one is apparently a tug boat??? Why deploy something that's just barely operational? No wonder they don't widely advertise these deployment ops, they're obviously embarrassed.

It seems the Pyotr Veliky is not a part of the Kuznetsov group at this time, and is scheduled to leave the Med for operations in the Indian Ocean. As of three days ago: (the Pyotr Veliky) is on its way to participate in a large scale Navy drill in the Indian Ocean. The cruiser has made a visit to the Syrian port of Tartus.

< Message edited by NakedWeasel -- 3/10/2014 11:22:41 PM >

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RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 10:18:05 PM   
guanotwozero

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 12/27/2013
Status: offline 		It's flag-flying rather than meaningful operational deployment. It only works until there's an actual crisis where the capabilities might be needed. Then, probably the best action is to run for a safe harbour.

While Latakia is the nearest, if hostilities actually kicked off I don't think it would be safe there, as Syria may find it hard to stay neutral. Indeed the balance of the civil war there may change as Russia would have no practical means to supply them, and NATO members may reconsider intervention to help the moderate rebels.

As it would be a long way home past many NATO members, I wouldn't fancy the group's chances.

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Post #: 214
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 10:25:41 PM   
NakedWeasel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: guanotwozero

As it would be a long way home past many NATO members, I wouldn't fancy the group's chances.


Indeed, certainly not! She would become a submarine in short order.

I think their safest bet, would be to surrender her, or put off any open hostilities with NATO, because I think they'd lose their only carrier very quickly. Even with the Pyotr Velikiy, a Udaloy, and a Neustrashimyy as escort.

< Message edited by NakedWeasel -- 3/10/2014 11:37:12 PM >

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Post #: 215
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 10:28:32 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		Apparently, their "small naval base" is in Tartus. It must indeed be very small, I see nothing military at all in that port from Google Earth.

Scratch that. I can actually make out about a dozen patrol boats and FAC's in the harbor.

< Message edited by NakedWeasel -- 3/10/2014 11:31:16 PM >

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Post #: 216
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 10:32:19 PM   
RoryAndersonCDT

 

Posts: 1830
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Status: offline 		80 trucks are moving to Northern Crimea and 85 - to Simferopol.
http://www.unian.net/politics/894920-80-rossiyskih-gruzovikov-napravlyayutsya-na-sever-kryima-85-na-simferopol-media-tsentr.html

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Post #: 217
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 10:38:32 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		So, can anyone guess at the Russian sub threat in the Med?

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Post #: 218
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 10:57:48 PM   
guanotwozero

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 12/27/2013
Status: offline 		For the Kuznetsov group, it's best chance would be to shelter in a neutral harbour, but nowadays Russia has a lack of friends in the Mediterranean who'd agree to it with hostilities looming. Syria, sure, but it will struggle to stay neutral. One other option may be Montenegro, parked alongside the luxury yachts in Bar harbour. It would suit NATO well to have it bottled up there, unable to do anything, rather than a wildcard elsewhere. It wouldn't exactly help Montenegro's nascent tourist industry, but such things stop operating in wartime anyway.

Back to actual events, it looks like Russia is aiming for a complete clampdown prior to the referendum, so as to make sure the result goes the "right" way without any pesky accountability. That attention would mostly be on Simfi and the border with the rest of Ukraine, as that's where journalists and observers would mainly want to cover/transit. This is what makes me think Putin's going to take it the whole way to annexation, with its dangerous consequences. It's like a train wreck in slow motion.

I really hope I'm wrong.

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Post #: 219
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 11:12:46 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		It seems like a really desperate, extremely risky course of action for Russia. If they force the issue, and open hostilities ensue, they'll lose badly. The question will be, how badly to beat them? How far can they be pushed back, while allowing them to "save face", without going all the way to nuclear exchange?

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Post #: 220
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 11:13:02 PM   
RoryAndersonCDT

 

Posts: 1830
Joined: 6/16/2009
Status: offline 		Alrosa (B-871) Kilo-class out of the Black Sea

Baltic sea fleet:
123rd Submarine Brigade
1 Lada-class submarine
B-585 Sankt Peterburg
2 Kilo-class submarines

Northern Fleet:
7th Division, Vidyaevo
SIERRA I-class SSN Kostroma
SIERRA II-class SSN Nizhniy Novgorod[11]
SIERRA II-class SSN Pskov (K-336)
VICTOR-III-class SSN Daniil Moskovskiy (K-414)


24th Submarine Division (Yagelnaya Bay, Sayda Inlet)
Akula-class submarine I-class SSN Pantera (K-317)
Akula I-class SSN Volk (K-461)
Akula I-class SSN Leopard (K-328)
Akula I-class SSN Tigr (K-154) [11]
Akula II-class SSN Vepr (K-157)
Akula II-class SSN Gepard (K-335)



I think right off the bat we can ignore the baltic fleet as transiting a non nuclear sub would be annoying. One LST from the baltic fleet is operating in the Black Sea.

My uneducated guess would be 1-2 SSNs; in theater possibly due to the Syrian crisis last year, operating out of a Syrian submarine base.





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Post #: 221
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 11:31:32 PM   
guanotwozero

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 12/27/2013
Status: offline 		I reckon Putin has no intention of getting into a shooting war with NATO, but he knows NATO won't intervene militarily unless he actually attacks a member state. He knows he can grab Ukraine militarily and justify it domestically by using a fraudulent (to everyone else) referendum, though there will be a cost.

The EU, US and many other countries will impose sanctions, but they'll want to have a scaled response so as to deter any further invasion, e.g. of the east or the whole country. Thus the "cost of Crimea" will be less than the cost of a full invasion. I think Putin's prepared to have Russia bear that cost, at least for what he reckons it will be.

It's risky, in that part of the response may be for NATO to guarantee the safety of rest of Ukraine. If that gets assured (or even if not), sanctions could increase in severity and steadily Putin finds himself with an economy going downhill, NATO buildups on his borders, and major opposition at home that he can't fully suppress. That's when dangerous men tend to become even more dangerous.

Edit ===

Another factor - at present, Europe gets much of its natural gas from Russia. Embargoing that will hurt Europe in the short term, forcing it to buy from elsewhere and pushing costs up. However it will hurt Russia more. As supplies readjust, the new suppliers (e.g. US, Saudi, maybe Iran) will increase output, pushing down the price again. What's more, Europe will probably stay with the new suppliers even after the crisis, so Russia loses its main customers and is subsequently hit with falling prices for its main export products, while trying to maintain military strength. Like a rerun of the 1980s, which virtually bankrupted the USSR.

< Message edited by guanotwozero -- 3/11/2014 12:49:01 AM >

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Post #: 222
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 11:55:22 PM   
RoryAndersonCDT

 

Posts: 1830
Joined: 6/16/2009
Status: offline 		Canada and the US have alot of energy; and we are good friends with Europe! Please buy from us!

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Post #: 223
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 11:56:51 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		So far I have the Russian Med OOB as: Fleet Admiral Kuznetsov, (099) Pyotr Veliky, RFS Admiral Levchenko (Udaloy I), RFS Neustrashimy (Project 1154 Yastreb), BDK-91 Olenegorsky Gornyak (Ropucha), RFS Sergey Osipov (Boris Chilikin), RAL65 Kama (Boris Chilikin???), (RFS?) Nikolai Chiker (ocean-going rescue togboat)

< Message edited by NakedWeasel -- 3/11/2014 1:12:35 AM >

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Post #: 224
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 12:15:34 AM   
guanotwozero

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Baloogan

Canada and the US have alot of energy; and we are good friends with Europe! Please buy from us!

Sure!

Most of the supplies from Russia, though, come by pipeline, which is normally cheaper than shipping. However, the economy of scale of production can dwarf that, so prices would return to a stable level after the initial hike as new infrastructure (terminals, bulk tankers) gets built and settles into place. What's more, newer technologies such as fracking could make Western Europe more self-sufficient, e.g. the UK is about to start tapping what may be large reserves.

It's been the case that Russia has used Europe's dependence on its petrochemicals as a major bargaining chip for years, frequently unfairly so (according to many) including the terms of the lease on the Sevastopol base. Europe would love to rid itself of that, so transatlantic sourcing may be a major part of the answer. Assuming transatlantic bargaining chips don't replace Russian ones...

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Post #: 225
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 12:29:04 AM   
NakedWeasel


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Joined: 1/14/2014
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Baloogan

Canada and the US have alot of energy; and we are good friends with Europe! Please buy from us!


Here here. Here in the great state of Texas, we're sitting on on the world's fifth largest supplies of oil and natural gas, with more being discovered daily. You might as well buy from your friends. And you don't have to worry about being annexed by us. You might get invaded by McDonalds and Burger King, but the rest of the world has learned to survive that mess as well.

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Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
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Post #: 226
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 1:04:52 AM   
guanotwozero

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: NakedWeasel
Here here. Here in the great state of Texas, we're sitting on on the world's fifth largest supplies of oil and natural gas, with more being discovered daily. You might as well buy from your friends. And you don't have to worry about being annexed by us. You might get invaded by McDonalds and Burger King, but the rest of the world has learned to survive that mess as well.

"Our people are buying your blue jeans and listening to your pop music...", as Civ V would have it.

Of course, cultural resistance exists too

< Message edited by guanotwozero -- 3/11/2014 2:06:59 AM >

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Post #: 227
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 1:20:05 AM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		Oh yes, let's not forget Walmart. Are those blue Walmart vests? Anyway, well played, sir. Well played indeed.

< Message edited by NakedWeasel -- 3/11/2014 2:21:50 AM >

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Post #: 228
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 2:16:42 AM   
sjgold

 

Posts: 20
Joined: 10/30/2013
Status: offline 		Moving a CVCG into the black sea would be a game of brinkmanship that Obama could not possibly play, he is too weak and has 0 respect internationally.


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Post #: 229
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 2:27:50 AM   
Rudd

 

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quote:

KIEV, Ukraine — Ukraine may have to arm itself with nuclear weapons if the United States and other world powers refuse to enforce a security pact that obligates them to reverse the Moscow-backed takeover of Crimea, a member of the Ukraine parliament told USA TODAY.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/10/ukraine-nuclear/6250815/

Not sure about the pact or the quote, just know the whole thing is getting bad

< Message edited by Rudd -- 3/11/2014 3:29:43 AM >

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Post #: 230
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 2:32:16 AM   
sjgold

 

Posts: 20
Joined: 10/30/2013
Status: offline 		Honestly I could not see a scenario here that would cause a NATO escalation that went hot.

About all that will happen is US/EU will throw around the condemn thing and say there are costs...
I don't even think serious sanctions will happen. EU needs the gas...

US can't do the logistics to ship the amount of gas needed to cover things if Putin tightens the thumb screws on the EU.

Remember this is the man that said one of the worst events of the 20th century was the breakup of the Soviet Union.
There is 0 chance Putin would just give up Crimea that being said there are diplomatic solutions to the situation, but in my opinion due to POTUS being so weak there is little reason for Putin to feel he is limited in response.
The man has 0 respect for Obama his recent actions have shown that. I think some of his response has been just to thumb his nose at the west.

That all being said Baloogan did a great job with the scenario, I watched the YouTube replay of the stream. It really shows how the game engine and editor features can really be a rapid tool for scenerao design.


< Message edited by sjgold -- 3/11/2014 3:35:31 AM >

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Post #: 231
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 2:34:41 AM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		@sjgold

quote:

Moving a CVCG into the black sea would be a game of brinkmanship that Obama could not possibly play, he is too weak and has 0 respect internationally.


We've already discussed that.
1. I agree with you- not a fan.
2. We already have a full carrier strike group and attached destroyer group in the area.
3. There are limits imposed upon shipping transiting the Bosporus. The limit for warships is 45000 tons, if I'm not mistaken. which is about half the displacement of a fully loaded Nimitz-class carrier. So, we can't get her in there even if we wanted to.
4. There is no need to move a CSG into the Black Sea, as her Hornets and their weapons have the range to do massive damage to Russian forces in Crimea from the southern coast of Turkey. I know, I'm running that very same operation right now.

< Message edited by NakedWeasel -- 3/11/2014 3:37:45 AM >

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Post #: 232
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 2:38:05 AM   
Rudd

 

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Joined: 7/10/2013
Status: offline 		Agreed (especially the POTUS remarks) , we the US, don't look very good at all.

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Post #: 233
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 2:40:53 AM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		BTW, for those that are interested, I've added the Kuznetsov CSG into the scenario the Baloogan and I have been working on.

Baloogan, I can send you my V.03, if you want it.

< Message edited by NakedWeasel -- 3/11/2014 3:41:45 AM >

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Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
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Post #: 234
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 4:45:51 AM   
guanotwozero

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 12/27/2013
Status: offline 		I'll partly agree and disagree with some of the above opinions.

Obama is pretty well respected in Europe, though it's mostly for reasons other than military leadership. The low point of the USA's relationship was during GWB's leadership and the Iraq invasion, which was widely seen as heavy-handed and a bad move. Obama generally increased the USA's reputation since then though he hasn't yet been tested on a military response, and this crisis is likely the one that will make/break his reputation on that front. Arguably this is a much bigger test than anything since the Cold War as it's on NATO's doorstep.

Europe is partly beholden to Russia because of petrochemicals and other trades, so to cut that off would mean a major hit initially. Timing is bad because many countries are only now emerging from the recession and an energy price hike would jeopardise that. For this reason European leaders (mostly western) have been pushing a more gentle, diplomatic, persuasive effort to get Putin to reverse his actions, as they're keen to avoid that hit. Eastern Europe is more concerned for obvious reasons.

The US, on the other hand, is much more immune to any trade sanctions, and has noticeably been the one leading the threats of consequences as it has little to lose by imposing trade embargoes. Admittedly Kerry has been more visible doing that than Obama himself, but the perceived tone is definitely a tough one.

In one way, this is exactly how coalition diplomacy should work. Europe is being the good cop, USA the bad cop. Or put another way, Europe is speaking softly while the US is gently tapping its big stick. It leaves way for a face-saving climb down with a promise of business as usual, but also emphasises that there will be a significant cost if annexation (or worse) happens.

If it does happen, the initial sanctions will probably be relatively gentle. Targetted visas, banking assets, that sort of thing. Part of the reason will be so that Europe has time to re-orient its energy markets and become less dependent on Russia, allowing deeper sanctions later. The carrot/stick approach should always allow a way out but increases pain if it's not taken, so meaningful sanctions would be staged progressively anyway. Not a quick fix but effective - sanctions are one of the main reasons Iran has become more cooperative recently. Remember, Putin will not always be in control and a future leader may be much more cooperative with the international community, though at present it's hard to foresee him not in a position to at least pull the strings. A door must be left open regardless.

In the meantime, an increase of NATO military assets near Russia's borders will add to the psychological pressure, and (hopefully) help deter further action. The US still has the big arsenal to do that, despite budget cuts, and it will make Russia's western neighbours feel quite a bit safer. This will help many nations take part in some form of embargo, whether trade or otherwise.

So Obama's real test may be just beginning. That's what we'll judge him on. It's not simply about being tough, otherwise we'd be praising Putin right now.

(in reply to NakedWeasel)
Post #: 235
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 1:56:25 PM   
cwemyss

 

Posts: 173
Joined: 11/29/2013
From: Grapevine, TX, USA
Status: offline 		How many tugs did you model to get wind over the deck for aircraft launch?

quote:

ORIGINAL: NakedWeasel

BTW, for those that are interested, I've added the Kuznetsov CSG into the scenario the Baloogan and I have been working on.




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Post #: 236
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 2:44:07 PM   
Dobey455

 

Posts: 445
Joined: 12/28/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: sjgold

Moving a CVCG into the black sea would be a game of brinkmanship that Obama could not possibly play, he is too weak and has 0 respect internationally.




a) From a military point of view Im pretty sure that sending a CVBG into a small, enclosed, body of water well inside the range on an enemy's land based air would be a REALLY bad idea.

B) Politically everybody knows that the West (US included) has ZERO interest in going to war with Russia over the Ukraine - so what is gained through chest beating bravado that makes threats which we have no intention of carrying out?


< Message edited by Dobey -- 3/11/2014 5:12:32 PM >

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Post #: 237
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 5:48:00 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
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quote:

ORIGINAL: cwemyss

How many tugs did you model to get wind over the deck for aircraft launch?



It is indeed a pretty humorous situation, both in real life, and in the game. I never thought I'd research so hard, for so long, on Russian "ocean-going rescue tugs", just to scrape together a credible force for the OPFOR. And it's really that "ghetto"- like they bring along a tug on every deployment just to ensure that rust bucket doesn't sink whilst tied up in a harbor.

From what I've read, they can't even supply pot-water to most of the boat, so they only have about 25 working heads, for 2500 crew. God, I can only imagine the smell from those latrines. Living conditions on board must be fairly deplorable for most of the ship's company.

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Post #: 238
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/11/2014 11:47:10 PM   
Gunner98

 

Posts: 5508
Joined: 4/29/2005
From: The Great White North!
Status: offline 		Just catching up and watching the Y-tube vid, very nice. Are there any thoughts of including Turkish and/or other NATO forces such as Brits on Cyprus, French Greek or Italians? Might make the Truxtun's life a little nicer in the first few hours.

BG

(in reply to NakedWeasel)
Post #: 239
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/12/2014 12:36:47 AM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		Currently, I have the Brits (2 squadrons of Typhoons), and some recon elements at RAF Akrotiri already. I will be adding a small NATO/Greek element at Souda Bay, Greece, focusing on Maritime Surveillance and ASW. I have two squadrons of Italian EF2000s at Romania's southern coastal base. There are also two squadrons of French Rafales, and an equal number of Mirage 2000 in Romania as well. I have been looking at the Turkish Navy OOB, and have had a difficult time determining what they have on the northern coastline, aside from a handful of SSKs and a small harbor for patrol boats. Most of Turkey's surface fleet appears to be based just outside the Bosporus.

In version 04, I will also be adding two RFS nuke subs to round out Russia's Med Fleet. Currently, they don't really have any way of detecting the Bush CSG, aside from just blundering westward into her patrol zone. Doesn't matter, that whole thing goes south for them very quickly.

Version 5 will include a number of the Ukraine land forces along the north of the Dnieper River, to "hold the line", until the NATO/UN air support is able to help out. They will probably be speedbumps at best, but they'll allow NATO some ability to find and fix the Russian assault forces, so that the air strikes can finish the Ruskies off. I'm still deciding whether or not to include attack helo's or A-10's to NATO right now. I'll also be adding a convoy of arms supply trucks at the Romanian border, because the freedom fighters have got to get their Stingers, and Javelins, and Spike missiles from somewhere...

Lastly, version six will be the endgame (of Part One, The Conventional War ) which will end with the Russian's being completely eliminated from the Crimea, or the destruction of a NATO base (other than Incirlik). I'm still trying to decide if and/or when the conflict goes to a limited nuclear conflict ( which will be the beginning of Part Two; Nuclear Counterforce ). I think the destruction of Engels for Russia will be the kicker for a counterforce strike against Incirlik, and vice versa for the NATO side. Both sides possess the assets needed to bring about the destruction of the other's main garrisons. The tricky part will be how and when to "turn it off". I want to give either side the ability to "win" a limited exchange, and/or force the other side to quit.

And finally, if things get REALLY, TOTALLY, HORRIDLY out of control, I'll add Part Three; Countervalue. Naturally, this will be a full nuclear exchange between Russia, and the United States, with a possible cameo role by China, and guest appearances by India, Pakistan, France, and Israel.

Bring your party hats and lead-based SPF-5000000 sunblock. It's gonna get a little crazy.




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Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
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And so fight on!

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