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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941

 
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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/9/2014 3:23:39 PM   
Courtenay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ingtar

If China is quiet for two years and there is no war, rather than reinforcing the Pacific, the US is more likely to continue mothballing ships and reducing forces to continue to fight the Great Depression. That was the thinking at the time, at least.

Excuse me? Please examine the Naval Expansion act of 1938 (passed 17 May, 1938), and the Naval Air and Submarine Base Bil (passed 25 March, 1939). The US was committed to making major naval expansions well before the start of WW II.

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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/9/2014 5:24:13 PM   
Ingtar

 

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The Acts passed in 1938 and 1939 were a response to the growing tension in Europe. Had something short-circuited that, leading to what the Isolationists would see as an opportunity, it would have been quickly reverted. FDR spent much of the prewar years fighting the isolationist sentiment. If they had "success" to point to, they would have the upper hand.

But that is a cool thing about alternate history; either one of us could be correct.

< Message edited by Ingtar -- 5/9/2014 6:41:17 PM >

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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/11/2014 3:56:13 AM   
Courtenay


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However, we are given that the "split" in this scenario did not occur until August of '39, so that appropriation bills that had been passed before that date would have been unaffected; these were the bills that authorized almost all construction through 1940, and much of the 1941 construction.

Also, in this history, there is a massive violation of the Monroe doctrine, which was the one constant of American foreign policy. Remember, the Zimmerman telegram got the US into WW I, and that was just a suggestion from German to Mexico to ally against the US. In this scenario, somehow there is coalition against the US in South America, which would have raised great alarm in the US.

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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/11/2014 11:24:48 AM   
Centuur


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True, but before WW II there were countries in South America with large groups which supported the Germans. Especially in countries as Chili, Argentina, Bolivia, Paraquay, Uruguay and Brazil. And there is also the Spanish question to be taken into account. What would have been the effect of the Spanish to join the German side? I think it would be huge in the Spanish speaking areas of South America, especially if the US would have adopted an Isolationist policy, which was quite feasable. My impression is that the longer the war had been postponed, the more difficult it would have been for the US to go to war.

The Monroe doctrine clashes with the Isolationist policies. If an Isolationist would have become the US foreign secretary, even that doctrine would have become less important to the far away nations of South America.


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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/15/2014 2:59:35 PM   
markb50k

 

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OK, I went back to the beginning and was able to get all the stuff setup how I wanted it in only 4 turns. So, the war will start with the May/Jun 1940 turn.

At this point, the following has happened generally:
- all minor countries have been aligned to a major power as specified above. I will show their setups in the next set of posts.
- all major powers have built all Militias (MIL), Territorials (TERR), and all SYNTH plants are in the production pipeline.
- all reserves have been called out and are in position.
- as a game balance mechanism, I have allowed Germany to build 1 more Offensive during the interim. They will start with 2 with an additional in production.
- US is currently at war with everyone except Germany, in order to hold back the US production multiple. On the first Axis impulse, they will declare war on the USA.
- Axis continues to have a +2 initiative bonus, and I will make sure Axis goes first.

I will now go through each major power and show their setup...

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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/15/2014 3:43:06 PM   
markb50k

 

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UNITED STATES
The US is primarily setup to place a defensive perimeter in the Pacific, and to establish an offensive capability in South America.

Philippines has been reinforced:




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/15/2014 3:49:09 PM   
markb50k

 

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The US has garrison at other strategic locations in the Pacific as well:
- Nimitz HQ and a MIL in Pearl Harbor
- MIL at Midway
- Mexican INF at Pago Pago
- Mexican CAV at Dutch Harbor, along with 4 cruisers

In South America, 3 US Militias have taken up defensive positions in Venezuela.

Here is an overall view of Central/South America US positions.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/15/2014 3:53:40 PM   
markb50k

 

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Navy wise, the fleet carriers are in Pearl Harbor, but the Eastern US fleet is preparing to go to Brazil first impulse they can.

Along the US Atlantic coast, an invasion force is arrayed:
- MacArthur HQ
- 6-4 MAR
- 5-4 MOT (Mexico)
- 8-5 MOT (broken down)
- 3 support DIVs (ENG, ARTY, AT)

On first attack, US will be able to hit with the Marines, 1 DIV, and the HQ, with the rest follow-on forces...




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/15/2014 4:03:19 PM   
markb50k

 

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SOVIET UNION

Surrounded on all sides, the Soviet had to make hard choices to protect what they can as best they can, but there just isn't enough troops to go around. Any delays to the Axis will help the Soviets immensely, and Poland is still there as a buffer.

Lets start on the peripheries. In the Far East, against weaker Japanese units, the Soviet put up a token defense at Vladivostok. They can't protect all the resource hexes and spreading out to protect all the cities on the rail line would be ineffective so they concentrate at Vladivostok and the resource hex adjacent. Hopefully they can hold out a while here.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/15/2014 4:05:02 PM   
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Soviet forces protecting the resource hex and the rest of the rail line:




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/15/2014 4:10:00 PM   
markb50k

 

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The Soviet put up a credible defense in the Caucasus area. Most of the units are arrayed against the Turkish forces on the border. Luckily the Turkish HQ is on the Syrian border not theirs...

The Afghans are aligned to the Soviets and are prepared to keep the Persian MIL pinned down around the capital. Another Persian unit guards the northern approach. Will show the Kuwait area when I get to the Brits.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/15/2014 4:15:14 PM   
markb50k

 

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In the Ukraine, a sizable force will defend against the Rumanians and Hungarians with German support. Germany has Von Bock and 4 corps to assist.

City defense in the two Bessarabian cities will be the first defense points, while the rest of the units wait on the other side of the river. With no surprise impulse, maybe they can hold.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/15/2014 5:32:12 PM   
markb50k

 

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In Poland, here we can see a few things.

The Polish defense, design to block hexsides on the capital to hopefully hold off until help arrives.

The "help" is in the form of Zhukov and his Army Group. They are lined up behind the river-line just into Lithuania (all Baltic minors were aligned to the USSR).

Germany's attack into Poland will have to take this sizable force into account.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War of 1941 - 5/15/2014 5:37:53 PM   
markb50k

 

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Lastly for the Soviet, we show the northern setup.

Leningrad has two GARRs, while Murmansk has an INF and a MIL.

Arrayed against them will be the Finnish forces, who will first try and seize back the Borderlands, and a Swedish force that will try to move through Finland on their way to Russia.

The CW will have to decide whether they reinforce France or the Soviets, but either way, Leningrad and Murmansk will likely have to fend for themselves for the initial time being.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 5:48:20 PM   
markb50k

 

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Let's switch to China.

Overall, Japan is the most taxed by this scenario. They have to rush to grab resources against the CW, and prepare for the US attack, before they can really deal with China. Japan has to concentrate their forces in one area, as you see here.

Japan will attempt to see how a concentrated attack on the Communists will work, but are prepared to go to the defensive if that shows to be difficult.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 5:50:24 PM   
markb50k

 

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In the South, the Nationalists are largely unopposed but that may be a false sense of security. With France a viable target, the Japanese may circumvent this area and go straight for Kunming and the capital.

China will have to weigh this against the urge to rush East and assault the small Japanese force guarding the ports in Central China.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 5:52:41 PM   
markb50k

 

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A quick look at Indo-China. France will be very busy in the early going, as I will show you, so Japan wants to take out Singapore first, then Indochina which will open an avenue directly to the Chinese factory cities. Japan hopes they do that quick enough that China will be out of position and have to rush back to the West to react.

It will all depend on how quickly Japan can take Singapore and move to China's underbelly.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 5:58:08 PM   
markb50k

 

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Singapore.

The CW has had some time to reinforce this, so Japan has to come strong to Malaya with all their Marines and Yamamoto + support.

guarding Singapore are three units, 4 strength MIL, 2 pt TERR, and a 1 pt DIV.

Half the Japanese carriers and all their BBs will help out here.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 6:01:31 PM   
markb50k

 

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Truk/Rabaul

Japan has garrisoned Kwajalein and Truk.

Unfortunately, CW has garrisoned Rabaul with the Sydney MIL. The US fleet in Pearl Harbor will have to hold off the Japanese attack if they go for Rabaul, but honestly I don't think the Japanese have the necessary forces on the 1st turn.

Just in case, half the Japanese CVs are in Truk.

As mentioned earlier, Japan will have to take Malaya, then Indo China, then most likely the Philippines before they think of attacking Rabaul. By that time it will likely be too late.

Thankfully, the NEI is aligned to the Axis (Germany) so they don't have to attack that, and get the garrison forces there to boot.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 6:05:13 PM   
markb50k

 

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Calcutta/Burma

right now the CW has a much forces as they can garrisoned here. Unlikely that Japan will ever get to the point where they threaten this. The Allies do need to keep an eye on the Siam MIL.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 6:07:04 PM   
markb50k

 

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Ceylon

The CW Asian fleet is based out of Ceylon with 1 CV with 2 CVPs onboard. The CW sent the slower 4 speed ships to Europe so all that is left is the CV and cruiser escorts.

A broken-down Indian DIV is the only garrison. The CW will try to up that defense first chance it gets into the war.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 6:11:03 PM   
markb50k

 

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Middle East.

Here we see that the CW put a 6-4 INF in Kuwait with the dual job of defending the port and cutting the rail line of oil to Europe, which it should be able to do in the first turn of the war.

Saudi Arabia, the Axis is not sure what to do with.

Egypt, CW has the two TERRs and a TERR from South Africa garrisoned there. Facing them is a token Italian force, so Egypt is likely to be quiet initially.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 6:12:16 PM   
markb50k

 

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East Africa,

with all Territorials built out, the war in Africa may be very boring as there will be garrisons everywhere (as long as the major powers keep them there).




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 6:14:44 PM   
markb50k

 

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Libya

As mentioned before, the Italians leave the Libyan Territorials plus a 4-1 GARR to defend Libya. Most of their forces are lined up to hit Greece and France.

Malta is defended by a South African MIL




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 6:16:10 PM   
markb50k

 

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Greece.

An early hotspot this is likely to be, as Prince Paul with a combined Yugo/Italian force will be sent to conquer Greece.

Notice the Bulgarians, who will likely rail to Russia to assist the Germans since they can't cooperate with any of the Italian bloc forces.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 6:18:43 PM   
markb50k

 

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Spain/Mediterranean

So Spain and Portugal have aligned with Italy, so you see them setup with a couple of units near Gibraltar, a garrison in Tangiers and most aligned at the French border.

You can also see the main Italian force at the French border as well. Can France defend this area?




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 6:23:55 PM   
markb50k

 

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Finally, France.

This is an interesting scenario here.

A combined attack force of Italy, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, and Switzerland are ready to launch their attack.

France stands with Belgium and the CW. The CW have already landed a BEF centered on Gort, 2 corps, and support divisions to Belgium, since it is aligned to them and are lined behind the river.

Wavell, the Mech corps, and a AT division are in Plymouth ready to go to France on the first turn. Likely they will go into Bordeaux to assist with the southern defense.

France has just enough forces to line the entire Eastern border south of Belgium, but in many places its a single unit deep.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/15/2014 6:27:52 PM   
markb50k

 

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Here is the Savegame right at the beginning of the May/Jun 1940 turn.

- US still needs to be DOW'd by Germany
- France has a couple of TERRs about to be placed in the reinforcement phase.

If you want to try this scenario out, have at it.

I will be starting the AAR now.

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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/16/2014 10:52:42 AM   
markb50k

 

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May/Jun 1940

We kick off the war. All nations are prepared to go. Its begun.

Initiative:
Axis wins the initiative roll and elects to go first.

Weather:
Roll of 9 give Fine weather everywhere.

1st Axis Impulse:

DOW:
The last DOW is done. Germany declares war on the United States.

US elects to convert the French carrier Bearn into another TRS. All remaining US Entry options are chosen including War Appropriations which starts the 6 turn countdown to increases in the US production multiple.

Actions:
GE Land
IT Land
JA Land

Nav Air:
IT moves a NAV2 to the Western Med
JA moves a NAV3 to the Bismarck Sea

Ground Strikes:
Germany launches two ground strikes, 1 in Poland, 1 in Belgium

In Poland, a single Stuka goes in unopposed on a Polish stack. 1 out of 2 hit.




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RE: Alternative History: The Great War that never happened - 5/16/2014 10:53:24 AM   
markb50k

 

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May/Jun 1940

1st Axis Impulse:

Ground Strikes (continued):
In Belgium, the Heinkel rolls low but not low enough for really good performance. 1 out of 4 hit.




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