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RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round

 
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RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/14/2014 6:24:20 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Spring 1942: Russia

The onset of better weather sees the reinforced German army renew its offensive against the Soviets on all three fronts. One would like to report brilliant tactical moves and daring bold thrusts into the enemy’s rear but the reality is different. Army Group North grinds its way towards Leningrad, while Army Group Centre pushes its way towards Moscow in a brutal battle of attrition. In the South the situation is a bit more fluid. The Russian line is split in two. Half of the defenders retreat south of the Don to protect the oil fields, while the remainder, leaving a strong garrison in Voronezh, fall back to Saratov. Stalin desperately calls for resources from the West to help replace the unsustainable losses the USSR is taking. With not enough CP’s available to get the resources back to its own factories, there is little the CW can do to help in this respect but they do have a plan.

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 31
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/14/2014 9:04:17 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Spring 1942: France

It’s pretty fair to say things haven’t gone entirely well for the Commonwealth so far. Booted out of France, booted out of North Africa and a shambles in the Atlantic, it doesn't exactly make for an impressive curriculum vitae. Unable to directly help out the USSR with material aid, the best it can think of is to create a sufficient nuisance to divert reinforcements west instead of east. The RAF has been growing in strength. The US 8th Air Force is starting to arrive and, more importantly, a whole bunch of units everyone was expecting would be committed to a Mediterranean campaign are sat in the UK.

In Germany, the supply difficulties in France over the winter have led to a heated debate within the High Command over how best to conduct the defense. One faction calls for an Atlantic Wall and defeating any invasion attempt on the beaches. The other faction points out the large number of units and additional HQ’s that would be needed for this, units badly needed in the East, and argues for a mobile defense kept more inland and ready to contain then counter-attack the invasion.

While the German High Command argues, the CW acts. To gain experience in conducting large combined operations, the CW mounts a joint seaborne and airborne assault on an undefended La Rochelle. A secondary objective, if circumstances allow, would be to join the Bordeaux partisans. The operation goes without a hitch. The Germans react quickly to contain the threat by railing a unit into Nantes from Amsterdam, bringing the Inf corps back north from Bordeaux and moving the HQ south. The units in North Brittany are put out of supply.

In the following Allied impulse, the CW realize their CV’s deployed in Biscay (convoy escorts and invasion cover) have a number of aircraft eligible to port strike Brest for which there is no Luftwaffe cover. The Germans get away relatively lightly but the Bismark and Tirpitz are left disorganized by the attack. Meanwhile, seeing the opportunity of taking an undefended Amsterdam, the CW launches another invasion task force into the North Sea. With no obvious prospect of exploiting the La Rochelle landing, the two units involved are re-embarked on transports.

Seeing the danger, the German command hastily deploys a unit from Germany to Amsterdam to seal off the threat. Rushing from pillar to post, they are beginning to feel like the boy and the dyke. The sequence of events crystallises German thinking and the ‘contain then counter-attack’ faction wins the debate. With the supply difficulties and proximity to air attack from the UK, they decide to abandon the North Brittany peninsular. The fleet will relocate to Bordeaux and the army will defend a line St-Nazaire to St-Malo, which they can keep supplied and contain any invasion. Keen to progress matters without delay, the Garr unit in Brest begins its move east to its new defensive position in St-Malo. In the meantime, the Inf corps assigned to deal with the partisans marches back to Bordeaux and prepares to attack. Supremely confident in their ability to deal with lightly armed peasants the German infantry are careless and march straight into an ambush. The partisans are still destroyed but so are the attackers.

In all the haste, it’s rather a shame no one has thought to let the Kreigsmarine in on the plans.

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 32
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/15/2014 9:43:31 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Spring 1942: Brest

The persistent and steady rumble of trucks disturbs Grand Admiral Raeder from what, until then, had been a deep and pleasant sleep. Calls to army HQ, under increasing levels of threat, finally get him through to the senior person present. Cpl Schmidt, 2167 Sanitation Co., otherwise known as Der Hausmeister, explains he was just finishing putting the chairs on the desks and turning out the lights, prior to locking up and leaving the key under the mat. The army have left the building.

Raeder is just explaining his ideas on the subject to Army Command Paris, “Was in Gottes namen hast du gethinken, du grosse dummkopf”, when the sound of heavy calibre weaponry disturbs his train of rant. Alighting to his balcony, praised in pre-war tourist guides for its picturesque and panoramic sea-views, he espies a not insignificant portion of the RN home fleet arrayed across the northern horizon. Of more immediate and pressing concern are the scores of amphibious craft purposefully making their way towards all suitable landing points.

Raeder orders the fleet to sail immediately to give battle. “Mitt was?” comes the reply from his ADC. “Wir haben keinen diesel oder munition.” Having expended their main ammunition in the battle against the Rodney, their secondary ammunition in attempting to repel the recent air strike and most of their fuel getting to Brest, there is nothing much left in the bunkers. “Wo sind die supplies?” Apparently, they were on flatcars at the rail head, just waiting to be picked up, when the army requisitioned all transport for a priority assignment. Not wanting to appear entirely inconsiderate, the army then arranged to send them on down to Bordeaux as a nice surprise, welcome to your new home, gift for the navy.

There is little the Kreigsmarine can do except flee south into the Bay of Biscay and run for port. The ships hastily depart the harbour and, by staying close inshore, manage to elude the RN forces in the sea area. All, that is, except for two. Bismark and Tirpitz, pride of the German navy. The big ships, still swarming with dockyard personnel and equipment checking and repairing the minor damage from the recent air strikes, take too long to be cleared and made ready for sea. Faced with the prospect of capture or a humiliating defeat at the hands of the RN, they are sailed into deep water and scuttled.


< Message edited by AllenK -- 9/15/2014 11:05:43 PM >

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 33
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/16/2014 7:54:44 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Spring 1942: France

While the battleships settle down to their new role as future off-shore diving sites, an aide brings Adm Raeder a signal.

“Fm OIC Netherlands To All Channel Cmds. Stop. Urgent. Stop. Have lost sight CW invasion fleet Amsterdam. Stop. Presume headed back port. Stop. In case not, be on guard. Stop.”

Thwarted in their attempt to grab Amsterdam on the cheap, the CW couldn’t believe their luck at seeing Brest left undefended. The RN quickly reversed course and mounted a hastily planned invasion attempt. With only nominal opposition, the city was easily taken without loss and air cover in the form of a Spitfire group flown in.

The Germans are knocked completely off balance. With no units available that are fast enough to reach Brittany and contain the CW corps in Brest, the CW are able to move down the coast, capturing Lorient and then inland. With two ports now available, four more units (a mixture of ARM and Mech) are transported in, making six units in total. They are joined by the RAF’s Hampden group for tactical support.

Still clinging to the idea of forming a containing defensive line (Nantes back NE towards Cherbourg), the unit garrisoning Paris is thrown forward (replaced by a unit brought up from Germany).

“Well my dear old things, welcome back from the shipping forecast. You join us just as the Germans introduce a change to the attack, bringing on the Hannover Militia. Two years indulgence in the gastronomic delights of Paris appear to have somewhat affected its prowess, reducing it to the dubious status of occasional slow-medium. The militia trundles ponderously up to the crease like an arthritic elephant and sends down its first effort. The CW advances down the pitch to the tamest of deliveries and dispatches it to the boundary with an elegent, dismissive ease reminiscent of Compton at his best. Geoffrey?”

“That were roobbish. A reet powder puff delivery. Me old gran could’ve knocked them out with a stick of celery. What were t’captain thinking about. Ee’s a nice lad and I’ve nothing against ‘im but ‘e ‘asn’t got any brains. In my day …” Fortunately the fragment of the recording ends at this point.

Out of the corner of his eye, Field Marshall von Klutz, OKW West, spots his personal 30-year old mint copy of ‘101 Introduction to Military Tactics’ on the bookshelf. The condition is that pristine, experts in such matters would describe it as “appearing barely read”.

“Well, you know how it is, you keep meaning to give it a look but what with one thing and another time slips by and you never quite get around to really studying it.”

In some deep and dusty corner of his mind stirs a vague memory of it mentioning something about committing forces in a piecemeal fashion and this falling into a category best described as Sgt. Wilson's “Do you think that’s awfully wise sir?”


< Message edited by AllenK -- 9/20/2014 11:53:45 AM >

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 34
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/16/2014 8:47:50 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: AllenK

Spring 1942: Brest

The persistent and steady rumble of trucks disturbs Grand Admiral Raeder from what, until then, had been a deep and pleasant sleep. Calls to army HQ, under increasing levels of threat, finally get him through to the senior person present. Cpl Schmidt, 2167 Sanitation Co., otherwise known as Der Hausmeister, explains he was just finishing putting the chairs on the desks and turning out the lights, prior to locking up and leaving the key under the mat. The army have left the building.

Raeder is just explaining his ideas on the subject to Army Command Paris, “Was in Gottes namen hast du gethinken, du grosse dummkopf”, when the sound of heavy calibre weaponry disturbs his train of rant. Alighting to his balcony, praised in pre-war tourist guides for its picturesque and panoramic sea-views, he espies a not insignificant portion of the RN home fleet arrayed across the northern horizon. Of more immediate and pressing concern are the scores of amphibious craft purposefully making their way towards all suitable landing points.

Raeder orders the fleet to sail immediately to give battle. “Mitt was?” comes the reply from his ADC. “Wir haben keinen diesel oder munition.” Having expended their main ammunition in the battle against the Rodney, their secondary ammunition in attempting to repel the recent air strike and most of their fuel getting to Brest, there is nothing much left in the bunkers. “Wo sind die supplies?” Apparently, they were on flatcars at the rail head, just waiting to be picked up, when the army requisitioned all transport for a priority assignment. Not wanting to appear entirely inconsiderate, the army then arranged to send them on down to Bordeaux as a nice surprise, welcome to your new home, gift for the navy.

There is little the Kreigsmarine can do except flee south into the Bay of Biscay and run for port. The ships hastily depart the harbour and, by staying close inshore, manage to elude the RN forces in the sea area. All, that is, except for two. Bismark and Tirpitz, pride of the German navy. The big ships, still swarming with dockyard personnel and equipment checking and repairing the minor damage from the recent air strikes, take too long to be cleared and made ready for sea. Faced with the prospect of capture or a humiliating defeat at the hands of the RN, they are sailed into deep water and scuttled.

warspite1

Ah.. good to see another fluent German speaker on the forum


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 35
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/16/2014 9:19:28 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		You mean my best Goggle inspired translation isn't as grammatically sound as I was led to believe?

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Post #: 36
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/16/2014 9:20:49 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Summer/Autumn 1942: Russia

Over the summer, German Army Group North advances to the gates Leningrad and begins the process of surrounding the city. Army Group Centre reaches Moscow and begins its envelopment. In the South Kursk, Kharkov and Rostov fall to the advancing panzers. The Donnets is crossed and the Soviets fall back to the river Don.

As the first signs of autumn appear, Army Group Centre succeeds in gathering enough strength around Moscow to launch an assault on the capital. The operation goes entirely according to plan. The Soviet air force, held back in anticipation, is swept aside. Ground strikes disorganise the defenders and the resulting assault captures the city. Stalin is offered the opportunity to surrender but vows to fight on.

In the North, the fortifications and garrison of Leningrad mean it will be a near impossible nut to crack without a boost to the attackers. Anticipating the difficulty, the Germans have been saving their remaining offensive reserve for just this moment and commit it to the attack. The operation starts badly when the ground strikes fail to do significant damage to the defence. With the reserves committed there is little option but to press on with the attack. The odds no longer look quite so good but with anything approaching reasonable luck, the city should still fall.

It is rather unfortunate the German army chooses this very moment to put in its worst performance to date, although that little episode with the partisans wasn’t exactly what you would call ‘Finest Hour’ material. Three corps are lost in the assault and the defence is barely scratched. Now too weak to even contemplate a second attempt, Leningrad is saved for at least the foreseeable future.

In the South, the Don is crossed. Advanced units reach the oil field at Armavir but are halted by soviet armour. A panzer army races to and captures Stalingrad. The Northern pincer reaches Voronezh. The Germans realise with one more successful push they could cut the Soviets off from the bulk of their oil resources and hatch a plan.


< Message edited by AllenK -- 9/20/2014 11:54:11 AM >

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 37
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/17/2014 9:13:25 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Autumn 1942: Army Group South

After eighteen months of war with USSR, the German High Command has had the first glimmerings of a thought which those of a generous and forgiving disposition might encouragingly label strategic. A close study of the maps has revealed a significant proportion of the Soviet oil resources are now dependent on a single railway line to get them to the factories. If that could be cut for any length of time, their ability to wage war would be somewhat compromised.

The closest the line passes to the German forces is Saratov and the key railway junction to the NW. However, the city and its surrounds are well defended. The defence needs to be weakened and quickly. The question is how? A daring but risky operation is proposed.

Phase One: A panzer corps from Stalingrad is to be sent 300 km directly east and cut the railway. The move will put it way beyond any hope of supply and it may well be lost but it will force the Russians to split the Saratov defence. They cannot afford to ignore it but will need to send enough units south to destroy it. While the panzers move east, the garrison at Voronezh will be dealt with.

Phase Two. The northern pincer of Army Group South will exploit the weakened defence, advance and capture Saratov.

With nothing to oppose them east of Stalingrad, the German armour races across the desert and the railway is cut. Unfortunately, the garrison at Voronezh prove tougher than expected to deal with and half of the attacking force is left disorganised (another poor dice roll). The USSR reacts as expected and half of the Saratov defence is sent south to recapture the railway. The slow moving infantry barely cover one third of the distance. Restricted by the need to keep their disorganised units in supply, the German HQ’s can only advance so far. The remaining units are pushed forward as far as they can go but fall short of the objectives. Whilst Saratov is now out of reach, a final effort could still capture the railway but then, the rains come …..


< Message edited by AllenK -- 9/18/2014 9:21:53 PM >

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Post #: 38
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/17/2014 10:59:29 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Summer 1942: France

What started as an opportunistic raid on Brest has quickly developed into a major offensive. CW units are shuttled across the Channel and Atlantic as fast as transport capacity will allow. The RAF is switched from strategic bombing to support of the army. US B17’s and B24’s stop in Greenland, fly to Scotland then join a RAF mission before basing in France. The first US land units land in France directly from the States.

The Germans, desperately trying to shore up a western defence while still keeping some replacements going east, call on Italian support. They oblige with an ARM, MOT and, crucially, an HQ for supply. One question is what to do about Vichy?

The Allies don’t want to declare war. It risks handing the Axis a number of free units on their exposed southern flank and a boost to their naval forces in the Med. Meanwhile, the Axis is quite happy to let Vichy remain in place as it narrows the front they need to defend in France. For the time being a truce ensures.

For the Allies it never really becomes an issue. With overwhelming air power, the CW carpet bombs its way to the gates of Paris. Driven back to the SE corner of occupied France and looking at the imminent recapture of Paris, which would leave them isolated and out of supply, the Italians unilaterally decide to act and grab what they can. Vichy is collapsed. While some units drive NW to link up with their colleagues in France, a second army advances along the coast through Toulon and Marseille. Although some French naval units escape across the Med, two BB’s are captured and other ships are destroyed. Despite this limited success, the Italians sense the tide may be turning. Rather than pursue further gains, they pull back to consolidate a defensive line along the Alps.

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 39
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/18/2014 2:34:34 PM   
Courtenay


Posts: 4003
Joined: 11/12/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: AllenK

Autumn 1942: Army Group South

After eighteen months of war with USSR, the German High Command has had the first glimmerings of a thought which those of a generous and forgiving disposition might encouragingly label strategic. A close study of the maps has revealed a significant proportion of the Soviet oil supplies are now dependent on a single railway line. If that could be cut for any length of time, their ability to wage war would be somewhat compromised.

The closest the line passes to the German forces is Saratov and the key railway junction to the NW. However, the city and its surrounds are well defended. The defence needs to be weakened and quickly. The question is how? A daring but risky operation is proposed.

Phase One: A panzer corps from Stalingrad is to be sent 240 km directly east and cut the railway. The move will put it way beyond any hope of supply and it may well be lost but it will force the Russians to split the Saratov defence. They cannot afford to ignore it but will need to send enough units south to destroy it. While the panzers move east, the garrison at Voronezh will be dealt with.

Phase Two. The northern pincer of Army Group South will exploit the weakened defence, advance and capture Saratov.

With nothing to oppose them east of Stalingrad, the German armour races across the desert and the railway is cut. Unfortunately, the garrison at Voronezh prove tougher than expected to deal with and half of the attacking force is left disorganised (another poor dice roll). The USSR reacts as expected and half of the Saratov defence is sent south to recapture the railway. The slow moving infantry barely cover one third of the distance. Restricted by the need to keep their disorganised units in supply, the German HQ’s can only advance so far. The remaining units are pushed forward as far as they can go but fall short of the objectives. Whilst Saratov is now out of reach, a final effort could still capture the railway but then, the rains come …..


Please note that one uses a supply line of unlimited length to reorganize oil dependent units. One needs rail lines only if one is using oil in factories for production or is storing it.

_____________________________

I thought I knew how to play this game....

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Post #: 40
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/18/2014 7:51:13 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Hi Courtenay,

Thank you for taking time to read these ramblings and for your note.

I realise I probably should have noted the optional rules I have been using. It's pretty much all apart from oil, food in flames, construction engs, HQ movement and variable reorg costs.

With all oil resources going into production, cutting the two railway lines out of the Caucasus blocks 9 resources from going to the factories, 10 if the factory at Krasnodar has been railed out or the path to that factory is also cut. Soviet production is cut by around 35%-40%. That's quite a chunk. If my Allied strategic bombing fleets could get anywhere close to that I'd be delighted.

I've slightly amended the post to make it clearer it is the railway route to the factories the Germans are trying to cut.



< Message edited by AllenK -- 9/20/2014 1:23:29 PM >

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Post #: 41
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/20/2014 12:21:59 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Autumn 1942: France

The east has been starved of reinforcements as they were increasingly sent to France. It was that or gift the Allies a pretty much unopposed march through Paris and on to Berlin. Hugh air battles developed as the Luftwaffe tried to turn back the allied air armada. King Canute would have had more success as, although hard pressed and at times outnumbered, the escorts repeatedly succeed in getting the bombers through to the targets. For the German army, the results are devastating. Units are simply vaporised one, two even three at a time.

Normally, breaching a defended river line like the Seine would be a difficult and costly operation to undertake but when there’s nothing resembling a coherent fighting force left on the far bank … Aided by American forces protecting the flanks and widening the breaches, Paris is retaken by the victorious CW forces and the French recover their homeland. With almost no losses sustained in the whole campaign it has been a near remarkable turnaround in form.

The re-conquest of France arrives not a moment too soon. As the victory celebrations wind down and weary, hung over troops remount their vehicles to continue the fight, the skies open. The rains have come early. The Germans contemplate a counter-attack but with the battlefield turning to mud and combat efficiency decreased, they realise they are too weak to make the risk worth it. On the other hand, the Allied bombers cannot hit targets they cannot see due to cloud cover and the still relatively light ground forces are not strong enough on their own. A lull in the fighting ensues.

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Post #: 42
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/20/2014 2:18:16 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Autumn-Winter 1942, 1943: Middle East.

While events played themselves out in Europe, the Italian expeditionary force in the Middle East halted after it’s capture of Transjordan and bided it’s time. The collapse of Vichy signalled the resumption of operations. The Italians march into Syria and in a two-part battle defeat the defending forces but it costs them another Inf corps. It’s now a somewhat smaller force than the one that set out from Libya all those months ago but still potent. Using the two HQ, the Italians are then able to reach out across the desert and assault Baghdad. Iraq falls and previously idle Italian factories are soon benefiting from the newly acquired resources.

The Italian navy has not been idle. The opening of the Suez Canal to them allows the establishment of a forward base in Eritrea. A convoy line is extended into the Persian Gulf to keep the army in supply. The army contemplates a move on Persia, gathers around Baghdad before setting off down the railway line to Basra. The plan is to use this as a jumping off point to the nearby oil-fields and then along the railway line to Tehran.

Unlike the year before in Egypt, this time the CW has forces nearby that are able to respond. Mountbatten and 4th Aust Mech, supported by Hurricane IIA’s of the RSA, are sent from India to Kuwait. Basra is captured by the Australians before the Italians can reach it and their army is put out of supply. To halt any further CW advance and to protect the army, a small force of cruisers and submarines begins operations against the CW convoys in the Arabian Sea.

The Italian navy is immediately successful in and buys time for the army by putting the CW units out of supply. The loss of CP’s and disruption in the flow of resources to an already over-stretched economy forces the CW to send elements of the Far East fleet to deal with the menace. The cruisers are sent damaged back to Italy but the submarines remain a continual thorn in the CW side. Supply cannot be re-established but then becomes irrelevant. Events in the Far East mean Mountbatten is recalled to India to deal with another partisan uprising in Bombay and then the Hurricanes are needed back in Calcutta due to the emergence of a potentially far greater threat.

Freed of any danger of being over-run while out of supply and disorganised, the Italian army begins a slow retreat to Baghdad then back across the desert to Syria. The German collapse in Europe means it is likely they will be needed in the final defence of the motherland if they can ever get back in time. The Italian tide appears to have reached its high water mark and begun to recede.

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 43
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/20/2014 3:20:38 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Autumn 1942: Japan

The High Command in Tokyo grows worried by the ever increasing strength of the US Navy. Their carriers, damaged in the opening battle off Pearl Harbour, are back in service and intelligence reports the first of a new and even more formidable class of CV’s has entered service. If anything is to be salvaged from the mess of China, the Japanese need time to concentrate on that theatre; time in which, left unchecked, the now awakened giant will soon become unstoppable.

The US Navy needs to be drawn into battle while the IJN remains at parity. The available ground forces mean nothing too ambitious or against a well-garrisoned target can be attempted but it still needs to be important enough the Americans would likely contest it. Casting around the map, the list of potential objectives is rather short, less than two in fact, and the name, for some unaccountable reason, sends shivers down the Japanese admirals’ spines: Midway.

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 44
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/20/2014 5:10:40 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Autumn 1942: Pacific Ocean

The Japanese infantry, crammed like tinned sardines into the holds of amphibious ships, have been told the entire might of the Imperial Japanese Navy will protect them and ensure their victory over the Yankees. Gazing out, on their brief permitted excursions to the upper decks, the fresh air a blessed relief from the turgid, fetid atmosphere below, many cannot fail to be both impressed and comforted. Every CV, BB, CA and escort, except those guarding the convoys, lies in a vast armada, stretching out across the horizon as far as the eye can see. For all the glorious sights and speeches, the more thoughtful reflect there is but one word to describe their situation: Bait. One can only bury such thoughts as deep within the mind as possible and pray the fish aren’t biting.

< Message edited by AllenK -- 9/21/2014 12:51:53 PM >

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Post #: 45
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/21/2014 2:23:02 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Autumn 1942: Midway

The Japanese move on Midway catches the Americans unprepared. The focus on Europe and the need for air and land action, while still shipping reinforcements from the States, means there has been little left for the Pacific. The fleet, whilst now battle ready, remains split between Pearl and San Diego. They are faced with a difficult decision. On its own, the fleet at Pearl is outnumbered. The addition of the San Diego fleet would more than match the Japanese but they’ve already received one bloody nose at Pearl from attempting just what they are proposing now. On the other hand, simply rolling over and letting the Japanese march in and take whatever it wants from the USA is a bitter pill to contemplate swallowing.

The economic analysts pitch into the debate. American industrial might already exceeds that of Japan and is set to keep growing. Keep exchanging losses at anything approaching a one to one rate and the Japanese armed forces will be ground into non-existence, leaving the USA triumphant. The expense will be worth it for the long-term guarantee of victory. In the cold, detached logic of the numbers it all sounds so easy, just as long as you are not one of the expendable ones.

The Americans sortie both fleets to engage the Japanese in the Central Pacific. The Japanese are the first side to spot the enemy but shortly afterwards are in turn spotted by the fleet from Pearl. Both sides launch strikes, the Americans desperately signalling the Japanese positions to the San Diego fleet but they are just out of range.

Numerically, the Americans are heavily out-numbered but their escorts are a reasonable match for the Japanese. It proves sufficient. The US Wildcats clear a path through the Japanese CAP for the bombers before being driven from the battle and forced back to their carrier. By splitting up and simultaneously attacking from multiple directions, the US aircrews confuse the Japanese AA defence, rendering it largely ineffective (minor reduction to bomb points). With the protection of Midway paramount, the US bombers take the bait and first target the loaded transports. Accurate bombing sends ships and men to the bottom, ending the invasion threat, and forces a cruiser to abort the battle. The only question now is whether they will have a carrier to return to.

Over the American carriers, the Japanese air strikes are driving home. US AA defence proves only marginally more effective than that of the Japanese and it is here the superior numbers tell. The significant results are one US CV sunk and another one damaged along with an escorting cruiser. Crucially, when the US bombers return there is nowhere for them to land and they can do nothing but crash into the sea when their fuel runs out.

With the invasion threat negated, the Japanese are caught slightly by surprise when, instead of returning to port as expected, the Americans elect to continue the fight. Outnumbered in CV’s as they now were, it was a brave, some would say foolhardy, decision but the USN needed to make some inroads into the IJN CV’s. A second carrier battle ensues and ends up with the Japanese losing one carrier sunk and another aborted in exchange for one sunk and one damaged on the American side. The Americans realise it would be almost certainly suicidal to press the point any further and retire to Pearl, so ending the battle.

On both sides of the Pacific, politicians and the press proclaim a glorious victory. The Japanese focus on the greater number of capital ships sunk and damaged, the shattered air groups and the IJN left ruling the seas. The Americans focus on the saving of Midway, the halting of Japanese expansion, the loss of a CV and transports and the thousands of troops sent to a watery grave. The high command in Tokyo have bought themselves their time but for how much longer can they afford such ‘victories’?

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 46
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/21/2014 4:34:01 PM   
composer99


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Status: offline 		The IJN may have sunk two CVs, but that battle will probably go down as this game's equivalent of the historical Battle of Midway.

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Post #: 47
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/21/2014 6:12:20 PM   
AllenK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

The IJN may have sunk two CVs, but that battle will probably go down as this game's equivalent of the historical Battle of Midway.


Hi,

Thanks for the comment. I'm always interested in other's perspectives. I can't work out who won or lost!

The goal of the operation was always the US CV's and buying time. Actually being able to complete the invasion would have been an unexpected bonus. Unless the IJN was spectacularly lucky, it was accepted the Trans and Inf would be lost but they would soak up the first strikes, preserving the IJN CV's. The Americans were saved by consistently good damage rolls. It pretty much seemed their X's and D's against the IJN hit home, whereas the majority for the Japanese got downgraded. With more even rolling, I think the US would have lost one more CV and one, possibly two more damaged. Either the Japanese CV or the Trans would have escaped damaged, rather than sunk.

However, unlike the real Midway, the Japanese still have naval superiority (if temporarily) and some decent CV replacements of their own nearing completion, just not as many as the US. They've bought themselves a couple of turns at least.

One other factor I alluded to but couldn't go into too much detail as I couldn't remember the exact details (it's been a couple of months since the battle played out), was the shattered US air-groups. A combination of a sub-optimal building programme and a focus on building strategic bombers and escorts for Europe, then running foul of gearing limits, has left the US struggling to equip its CV's. Adding the losses sustained in this battle, even when the damaged US CV's are repaired, it's going to be difficult to fill them all with aircraft and an empty CV is as good as no CV but that's getting slightly ahead of myself.

On the other hand, from the logic of the numbers, two CV's versus a CV, an Amph and an Inf (plus air losses on both sides) sure looks like a US victory!



< Message edited by AllenK -- 9/21/2014 7:38:57 PM >

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 48
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/22/2014 1:05:24 AM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
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Status: offline 		Thanks for going into detail. It's always nice to see players go into that kind of depth.

(For what it's worth, I think the US should have gone for the Japanese CVs and let the invaders go through. Midway's not so crucial that it can't be bypassed.)

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RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/22/2014 2:17:11 PM   
AllenK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Thanks for going into detail. It's always nice to see players go into that kind of depth.

(For what it's worth, I think the US should have gone for the Japanese CVs and let the invaders go through. Midway's not so crucial that it can't be bypassed.)


A very good point and alternative view of what the USN should have struck first. Looking through the various AAR's and other threads, I'm pretty sure there would be adherents to each of the options.

Looking at it economically, an Amph (3+4 BP) and the Inf (3 BP), making a 10 BP loss is greater than a CV (2+2 BP), Air (1 BP) and pilot (2 BP), making 7 BP. Hm.... looking at it that way, what on earth were the IJN doing even mounting the Op? Ah yes, they were the bait to draw out the USN. It nearly worked. The IJN still did significant damage despite a lot of die rolls going in favour of the Americans, starting with their CV bomber cleared through in the first round of air combat.

Out of interest, I'll play out an alternative version where the USN sinks an IJN CV (as first strike it would have been a 4 pointer) instead of the Amph. In round 2 the results would have been the same against the IJN but probably reduced against the USN due the weakened IJN air. It would have ended up with the USN facing 4 CV's to either 1 or 2. If it was 4 to 1, they would have bugged out, leaving the invasion to continue.

What if it was 4 to 2? Both sides decide to duke it out for another round of combat. First the search rolls. The USN roll 2, spotting the IJN and the IJN roll 6 (I have a pair of D10). With the USN in the 1 box and the IJN in the 3 box, the result is 3 surprise points to the Allies (I think). The USN spends 2 points increasing it's air to air value by 1. Not being able to remember exactly the aircraft involved but, as they are relatively even, this would probably put the Allies either 0 or +1. Round 1, the allies roll a 7 (either a DA or an AA). If the US were choosing a bomber would be aborted. The IJN would abort the front fighter. We'll park this for now. IJN roll a 5 (DX) and the US destroy their front and only fighter. Remaining IJN bombers are cleared through. Second round, the USN are now around -2. US roll a DA and IJN abort a fighter, IJN roll a 7 and aborts the US bomber.

This leaves either 1 or 2 IJN bombers to attack the US fleet. AA factors would have been around the 14-16 mark. Against 1 bomber lowest 2 of 5 (9, 2, 3, 6, 5). For 5 points total, the bomber is shot down. If 2 got through, highest 1 of 2 (4, 2) reduces the bombs by 4 giving something like 2 points to attack. The result something like a D or possibly a D and A. The IJN try the D on a CV and, true to form, roll a 10 aborting the CV. The A is immaterial.

Either way, the US is down to one functional CV and aborts the area. In the resulting invasion, the Japanese Inf (an 8 factor unit) plus gunfire support give +16 and the roll of 10 sees Midway fall to the Japanese. The Japanese rebase Subs and long-range NAV's/FTR's to the island and set about trying to put Pearl out of supply. Do the US stay and fight out a supply battle with the Japanese (they will be challenged keeping Midway topped up) or relocate their Pacific base and if so, where? Pago Pago, Brisbane, Rabaul? They are all a long way from the States and they haven't yet managed to get Rabaul in supply? Or do they retire to San Diego? Ah, what might have been ...


< Message edited by AllenK -- 9/22/2014 3:19:48 PM >

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Post #: 50
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/22/2014 5:07:01 PM   
AllenK


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Status: offline 		Right, after that excursion into an an alternate, alternate reality, its back to the regular alternate reality.

Autumn-Winter 1942: Russia

For German Army Group North the onset of the autumn rains has little impact. Even if the weather had been good, the disastrous assault on Leningrad left them too weak to do anything other than mount a siege. The Soviets are too weak to do anything other than garrison. The sitzkreig continues.

In the Centre and the South, while the German army continued to press relentlessly forward it had been hard to see any discernible impact from the CW/US invasion of France. With the Germans halted and several units now out of supply, the Soviet generals realise there is no continuous line opposite them. Losses, the draw of reinforcements to the West and the early onset of the autumn weather have caught the Germans out leaving several gaps. The Soviets set about doing what they can to exploit this unexpected bonus.

To the south of Moscow the Soviet army infiltrates around the open German southern flank, putting a disorganized HQ-Inf (von Leeb I think) out of supply. The HQ is soon destroyed and this promptly puts the bulk of German Army Group Centre out of supply. Unable move without risking von Leeb’s fate, the army group is trapped and can do nothing but pray for relief.

In the south soviet counter-attacks put the advanced units in Stalingrad under threat and force the Germans back from Armavir. Seeing the predicament of Army Group Centre, the Germans realise they will need to pull back to form a defensive line, Rostov-Voronezh. Stalingrad is abandoned. Deep behind enemy lines, with Soviet forces, including artillery, bearing down and no hope of relief, the DAK ARM uses the last of its fuel to gain time and draw the pursuers further from the front by running south to Astrakhan. There, it is finally caught and destroyed. Was the sacrifice worth it? Well, as October moved into November, the USSR factories were starved of nine resource points but that’s set against the six points needed to rebuild the DAK.

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 51
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 9/22/2014 7:06:34 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
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Status: offline 		Winter 1942/43 Russia.

For Army Group Centre, their situation goes from bad to worse. A second pincer starts to envelop them from the North. The Germans are initially puzzled how they are staying in supply. A check of the routes reveals the path is taking a tortuous northern route, passing very close to Leningrad. A quick reorganisation of the besiegers cuts the supply and the northern pincer is halted. With nothing to slow the southern pincer down, other than the weather, a Soviet mechanised army (HQ-ARM, 2xMECH, ARM plus other INF) begins a drive west. Tula, Bryansk and Smolensk are recaptured. Each city becomes a base for reinforcements. The Soviet army begins rebuilding itself in the German rear. Gomel is recaptured and units start probing towards Kiev.

With an open northern flank, Army Group South sees the danger. Kiev is hurriedly garrisoned and the Army Group retreats to the Dneiper. Most make it but two slow moving INF are caught and over-run by the advancing Russians. Before the line can be completely formed, the Soviets get a unit across the river NW of Kiev. Until HQ support catches up it can go no further but the Germans aren’t in a position to dislodge it either.

If anything is to be saved of Army Group Centre, they need supply and for this, they need an HQ. Where from? All the HQ’s are deployed and none are spare, except one. Throughout the war, General Mannerhe has been sat on the USSR-Finland border at Leningrad. When the winter snows come and Lake Ladoga freezes over the General is able to cross the lake and move his HQ south of Leningrad. Doing so keeps Army Group North in supply and frees Gen von Beck to drive south with the German forces and open a supply route to the centre.

While the Germans juggle HQ’s, the Soviet advance continues. Vitebsk falls. The Soviets press on to Minsk where, with signs of imminent improvement to the weather, they are temporarily slowed. In the nick of time, the Germans have managed to scrape some reinforcements together and get them east. Centred on Vilna and NE of Brest-Litovsk, they form the thinnest of screens, mostly overlapping ZOC’s. In the South, having caught an HQ up to Kiev, the Soviets push further around the top and threaten to break out into the German rear.

Von Beck re-establishes supply to the rear elements of Army Group Centre, Mannerhe pushes south to enable units from AGpN to form up on the Dneiper and block a Soviet move north from Vitebsk. It’s crucial. Supplies to AGpCtr are dependent on a single rail line traveling east through Pskov. The Soviets slowly infiltrate around the south of Vilna. They are one impulse away from a shot at capturing a lightly guarded Warsaw (1-point Inf Div) and an unguarded Latvia. If these should fall, only the railway from Estonia would prevent Russia from becoming a giant POW camp containing the majority of the German armoured forces. The Soviets move a unit out of Leningrad and cut the line.

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 52
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 10/4/2014 2:16:23 PM   
AllenK


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Status: offline 		Spring 1943: Russia

With the coming of spring, the weather in the northern hemisphere is fine everywhere and the German’s seize the initiative. Their situation is perilous and the first priority is figuring out a way to stop the Soviet capture of Warsaw and Latvia. The Germans have but one hope. A gruppen of Do17z’s have relocated from the west during the winter, basing at Kaunas. Their commander is summoned to an urgent briefing at Army HQ and receives his orders. The fate of the German army hangs on his unit being able to successfully ground-strike the Soviet HQ outside Minsk. Disorganise the HQ and, while the remaining units could still advance, they would be out of supply and unable to attack.

The gods of war and fate on this occasion side with the Germans. The ground strike is a success, disorganising the HQ and halting the Soviet advance. The Germans then set about bringing AGpCtr back to safety. Paradoxically, in order to retreat, they first have to advance to bring the units around Moscow back in supply. That accomplished, the flight to the west begins. With the Soviets pressing on both sides of a thin corridor, there isn’t time or space to extract the full Moscow garrison and an armoured corps has be left behind as a sacrificial speed bump. In the South, the improved weather and hence supply situation means the Germans are able to move up and contain the threatened breakthrough north of Kiev.

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Post #: 53
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 10/4/2014 3:02:36 PM   
AllenK


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Status: offline 		Spring 1943: Moscow

The departure of the Germans from the city’s surrounds is just what the Soviets have been waiting for. They launch a ground strike at the now out of supply German ARM defending the city. Troops dug in amongst ruined buildings prove difficult for the pilots to locate and the strike fails. Had it succeeded the recapture of Moscow would have been a formality. Even so, as the Soviets envelop the city, the odds are extremely good. Without further ado they launch their assault on Moscow. HQ Army Group Ctr receives a last garbled message from the ARM “Sie Kommen.”

In a heroic last stand, the German armour is wiped out and the city retaken but the gods haven’t deserted the Germans just yet. The attacking forces are all disorganised (terrible die roll, something like a 3 or 4) and unable to further pursue the retreating Germans. Taking full advantage of their good fortune, AGpCtr pulls back in good order to form a strong line along the Dvina. A smart move by AGpN blocks a path back to Leningrad for the Soviet INF that had moved out to cut the railway from Estonia. Further German success comes when the Soviet incursion NE of Kiev is destroyed, securing the southern front once more.

The respite is welcome because on the Western Front events have taken an interesting turn.

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 54
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 10/4/2014 3:21:42 PM   
AllenK


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Status: offline 		Winter 1942/43: Western Front

The lull in the ground battle frees the Allied air armada to resume its strategic bombing campaign. In poor weather, usually bombing blind through cloud, the efforts are largely ineffective. The air commanders and strategic bombing adherents can but speculate at what might have been had the devastatingly accurate bombing of the summer been directed at German factories rather than ground units. Ineffective then becomes zero when, in a devastating air battle for the Allies, all bar one of the long-range escorts are lost. The air offensive stalls awaiting replacement escorts.

The rest of the winter sees the Allies shipping reinforcements to France and some battles between the U-boats and the CW convoys. Both sides inflict damage on the other but there are no CW disasters and fresh shipping reserves keep the convoy lanes open. Both sides draw breath awaiting the spring.

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 55
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 10/4/2014 6:35:11 PM   
AllenK


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Status: offline 		Spring 1943: France

The German line runs diagonally NW from the forest west of Berne to the coast at Boulogne and still holding Rouen. In the North, the CW pick up from where they left off in the autumn. Able to call on short range fighter support to escort the bombers and with no defensive terrain to assist the Germans, they blast through the line with little loss. To the south the Americans bring their amassed offensive supplies (now producing an O-Chit per turn) to bear. They too breakthrough but the troops don’t perform as well in combat and each attack loses them an MOT corps.

To free up units for a defensive reserve and to shorten the lines, the Germans pull back to a new line running diagonally SW from Antwerp to NW of Zurich. Almost the entire front line is double stacked and backed by a unit behind to prevent any breakthrough. The exception is the forest NW of Zurich. A single unit, protected by the Rhine and forts of the Siegfried line but with nothing behind, guards this sector of the front. The Germans simply couldn’t get anything else in place and decided to make the weakest point the one furthest away from the capital.

The Americans, somewhat miffed at the CW taking all the limelight to date (France recaptured, Belgium seemingly next), sense their opportunity to write their own glorious chapter in the history books. Breakthrough the weak spot and into the open countryside beyond, before the Germans can reinforce it, and Southern Germany, Austria and Czechoslovakia lie exposed. The war could be over by Christmas!

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 56
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 10/5/2014 2:42:18 PM   
AllenK


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Status: offline 		Spring 1943: Western Front

Keen to exploit the opportunity presented, Eisenhower is allocated on O-Chit and told to “go to it”. The allies close up to the German lines and launch their assaults.

In the North, the CW attack Brussels. In a bid to outflank the line, or at least stretch the defence, a seaborne invasion of a lightly defended Amsterdam is launched. It doesn’t go well. The invasion gets ashore but both invading units are disorganised. At Brussels both sides lose a unit, the attackers are left disorganised and a large part of the RAF has now been committed. The Germans maintain control of the Belgium capital.

The Americans, boosted by the O-chit, launch two attacks. The main assault is the attempt to break through the weak spot. A secondary attack on the hex NW is aimed at widening the breach and protecting the flank of the spearhead. To give favourable odds, both Eisenhower and Bradley commit their HQ’s to the flank assault. The plan half works. The main assault smashes through the German lines. The flank assault is a disaster (die roll of 3 or 4). The Americans lose three units, leaving only the disorganised HQ’s holding part of the line.

The German High Command draw a sigh of relief knowing, for the immediate future at least, the Allied effort is stalled. Relief turns to joy when they notice the Americans, in their eagerness to press forward and end the war single-handed, have allowed a gap to open between their units at the front and the reinforcements moving inland from the Atlantic coast. It appears, in all the rush and excitement, they have forgotten about the Italians who, for the last few months, have been sat quietly minding their own business in the Alps. At the head of the line, around Lyons, sits one of Italy’s best units, the Corazzata ARM, hiding beneath a regular INF. A hasty telegram is dispatched from Berlin to Rome and the ARM, plus supporting units, is sent northwards into the gap. The colour drains from the American faces as the move puts their entire and largely disorganised front-line out of supply.


< Message edited by AllenK -- 10/5/2014 4:40:08 PM >

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Post #: 57
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 10/5/2014 4:57:31 PM   
AllenK


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Status: offline 		Spring/Summer 1943: France

The gift presented by the Americans is too good an opportunity to pass up. The Germans immediately counter-attack quickly destroying Eisenhower and Bradley, while isolating and then destroying the units that had, oh so briefly, threatened to break into the heart of Germany. The American sector of the front crumbles. What had seemed, barely a few weeks previously, such a mighty and unstoppable force has melted away following a succession of poor combats. A massive flaw in the US build plan has left it with too few transports to maintain a sufficient flow of reinforcements to replace the losses.

Disaster threatens to become calamity as the prospect of the US 8th Air Force, now based in France, being over-run and destroyed on the ground, while disorganised, looms. The remaining US units in France, boosted by a couple from the CW, are formed into a hasty screen to protect the air force. It takes losses but does its job and a combination of an air move, remaining HQ reorganisation points and end of turn reorganisation allows the allies to get the air force, bar an old A-22, back to England.

In the North, the failure of the CW attack on Brussels means the Germans can easily spare the units to deal with the CW forces in Amsterdam. They are quickly surrounded and destroyed.


< Message edited by AllenK -- 10/5/2014 6:35:57 PM >

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Post #: 58
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 10/5/2014 6:03:39 PM   
AllenK


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Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Summer/Autumn 1943: France

With ground and air superiority, the German counter-attack, aided by the Italians, proves unstoppable. Paris is recaptured and France reconquered. The Allied forces in France are split between the CW, forced back into a pocket in NW France, and the remains of the US forces gathered by La Rochelle. Outnumbered and faced with probable annihilation, SHAEF orders the abandonment of France. For the second time in the war, the RN evacuates the British Army from the beaches around Dunkirk. The US Navy picks up its countrymen and all, apart from the sacrificed rear guards, find themselves back in the UK.

(in reply to AllenK)
Post #: 59
RE: Decline and Fall The Long Way Round - 10/5/2014 8:13:24 PM   
AllenK


Posts: 7259
Joined: 2/17/2014
From: England
Status: offline 		Summer/Autumn 1943: Russia

Having completed its successful withdrawal, the rejuvenated AGpCtr looks a somewhat different and more ferocious beast. Now the Soviets look rather weak and exposed. Emulating their brethren in the west, the Germans begin a counter-attack. It starts with the Soviet units around Minsk. Those not destroyed in the initial assault try to flee back east but are caught and picked off. The Germans are on a roll. Vitebsk and Smolensk are recaptured, their garrisons destroyed. The remaining Soviet forces fall back to defend Moscow.

The Germans, however, have a different goal in mind. Once clear of the Pripet Marshes, the ARM and MECH turn SE leaving an INF screen covering Moscow. The leading elements join the forces from Army Gp South who have mounted their own successful offensive, driving the Soviets back from the Dneiper. Recognising the danger, the Soviets give ground and prioritise stopping the Germans from getting to the oil fields. As the autumn weather threatens to turn, the Germans settle for the second best option and cut the railway lines from the south. Unlike the previous year, this time it is with substantial and supported forces.

Not wishing to miss out on all the plaudits, in the meantime, a reinforced Army Gp N has driven back to Leningrad and, with support from the Finns, succeeded in capturing the city.

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Post #: 60
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