IdahoNYer
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Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
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End of Jun '42 Summary
While Jun was a relatively quiet month compared to those preceding it, it will be remembered perhaps as the first month which ends with the Allies making an advance, and Japan pulling back and on the defensive in some areas. That is not to say that the Allies have wrestled the initiative away from Japan. Far from it. In fact Jun can be best characterized perhaps by losing the last of the bases initially targeted by Japan at the start of hostilities - Bataan, Darwin, Akyab, Sian and Wenchow. But no new front was opened up by Japan in Jun, and that’s a first. Still think L_S_T’s not ready to concede the initiative, despite pulling back in the Aleutians and in the New Hebrides. Port Hedland is still in his sights, but anywhere else - or if there is an anywhere is unknown - other than continued pressure in China of course. Jun had only one sizeable naval engagement - the Battle of Luganville; an Allied victory. Naval losses for the month were relatively light overall to both sides, but also continue to be in the Allies favor - IJN reported losses for the month were a BB, CL, 2DD and 4SS as compared to the Allies losing a CA, DD and 3SS. The US did also lose 9 PT boats, the primary close-in deterrent to naval bombardment - Air losses were also in the Allies favor, 478 for Jpn to 389 Allied.
Screenshot shows Allied Forces disposition - Notes: 1)Ships are in service, not under refit or stood down. 2) a/c shown are combat available, not trainers or deployed on CVs. 3) CENPAC subs are those against IJN shipping, other Theater subs shown are “in close” for defense of that Theater. 4) En are Construction or Port Maint Bns, not BFs.
INTEL: So what is the next Japanese move? Other than taking Port Hedland, I have completely no idea. I expect continued attacks in China of course - in the NE and in the south. Only in Australia is there any indication of continued offensive action - Port Hedland. In fact, he’s reacting to Allied moves for a change - apparently withdrawing from Attu, giving up the New Hebrides in SOPAC, attempting to rescue isolated units west of Normanton, and trying to hold his gains against attacks in Burma near Cox’s Bazaar. I still think he has one more major offensive coming - too many troops have been freed up in Bataan and NW OZ that are currently not committed, and of course his carrier force is intact. He’s got enough capability to still take anything he sets his sights on - the Allies are better, but still not capable of holding a piece of ground the Japanese want - but the Allies can make it very costly from this point forward.
SUBWAR: With the fall of Bataan and most of the 4/42 refits complete, the Silent Service returns to attempting to target the merchant lifelines of Japan. The results have been lackluster, but at least there has been an increase in the number of attacks - the results of those attacks are still poor. Further, with the return of subs to offensive roles, L_S_T has returned to using a/c in an ASW role - and that has heavily damaged some 3 subs in Jun. Subs continue to provide in-close patrol of threatened areas such as the New Hebrides, Attu, Port Hedland and Cooktown - with the expected very poor results against the marauding bombardment runs. Will continue to focus subs on the merchant lifelines, including dropping mines as mine stockages permit.
West Coast/USA/Rear Areas: Ship upgrades continue, as the 4/42 warship upgrades wind down, the merchant upgrades continue, and two CVs (Saratoga, Yorktown) are currently in refit. Will likely not do Lexington’s refit as having Sara out 40 days right now is something I don’t want to repeat with Lex - I’ll wait till the 10/42 upgrade. For the first time, I think I’ve achieved some semblance of balance with trained pilots available (in the reserve pool) and airframes available. Airframes are still in short supply, but are balanced to those deployed and those in training groups producing sufficient pilots for the pool. The result of this “balance” is a fairly robust, well trained pilot pool for all services and aircraft types - including USMC air and Army bombers which previously were in dire shortages. Goal is to sustain this balance, and get all pilot pools to 150+ pilots for each plane type. Lastly, reinforcements continue to arrive at a brisk clip, especially the decisive weapon of the Pacific War - Engineers! US engineers are now becoming available in ever increasing numbers, and deploying to all theaters in quantity.
NOPAC. It looks as though the IJN did pull the combat units out of Attu, and this will simplify the amphib invasion which will be loaded at DH shortly. The appearance of the IJN BBs was worrisome - the Theater is still a backwater as far as equipment flow, and the Army Air avail would have been hard pressed to stop a BB TF. Once Attu is secured, will gradually pull back naval and air assets to other theaters, such as CENPAC.
CENPAC. Still quiet here. No indications of Japan wanting to change that, but with Attu campaign coming to a close early, perhaps I will probe a bit on some outer islands - such as Baker Is to see what the Japanese response will be.
SOPAC. Things have been moving along well here in the New Hebrides Campaign - Luganville secured earlier than expected as L_S_T pulled out. Will continue to develop bases here in July - with robust air avail at mutually supporting bases, the KB and bombardment threats can be greatly mitigated. With Luganville secured, will look to the Santa Cruz Island - Ndeni and Vankoro to be established as airbases. Will also potentially raid with available US CV as I shuttle CVs through refit - nothing dramatic, but if the KB is confirmed elsewhere, I’ll see if I can stir up some activity on the perimeter.
SWPAC. I’m still not convinced NE Australia is NOT the next target for invasion. Allied defenses continue to build - including air and ground capabilities, and it would be a tough fight - but one which Japan could win and gain a foothold at Portland Roads or Cooktown - bases I can’t easily reinforce by rail. It would be expensive to Japan though. The Normanton landing has turned into a Allied pursuit of fleeing, out of supply troops across the central Australian desert. Very strange…but welcome. I’m still not robbing NE or E coast Australian defenses to destroy these troops. Just in case. Once these troops are either destroyed, or have moved into WAUS territory, SWPAC will transition prepare for limited offensive air campaign against targets in New Guinea. Transition in this case means building up the bases and aviation support from Portland Roads to Cooktown to sustain that air offensive.
WAUS. On its right, WAUS focus is to hold Tennant Creek and perhaps isolate any IJA force attempting to relieve the Normanton force. Not sure the isolation is practical with the supply difficulties I’ve had at Tennant Creek - but will explore it. Tennant Creek’s defense should be sustainable now that the AF is at level 5 and supplies aren’t critically short - but, I can’t overload the supply system by rushing in troops - two Bdes and some support seem to be the max for now. On the left, Port Hedland still holds, despite being the daily target of unhindered bombing runs. Supply is critically short, and I’m holding off the temptation to push ships in - they’d just be quickly sunk. Subs continue to bring in limited supply, but the Allied emphasis has been building up Carnavon - now at Port and AF level 2, and supplies are building. Key is to continue to build up Carnavon, and start building up at Exmouth in Jul. Whether or not I can hold Port Hedland is doubtful if, as I expect, he lands a full division plus. I’m hoping whatever naval action is done - bombardment or landings at Port Hedland or even perhaps Exmouth or Carnavon - is done without the support of the KB. The two Brit CVs and two US CVs (once Yorktown finishes refit) along with a CA TF could potentially cause some trouble. That’s the plan anyway.
Burma/India. Although Akyab fell as expected, the best possible outcome was totally unexpected - the cut off Allied troops at Akyab withdrew into the IJA’s rear and isolated the IJA!!! Amazing! I had written these troops off when they got cut off at Akyab, and now, not only have they delayed the IJA’s advance, but some may even make it back to Allied lines. Again, amazing! With the lead IJA division out in front of its Army which is “mopping up” its supply lines, I’ve even managed to begin a limited attack against the IJA. I expect to continue to be active in this area for July as well, and figure ultimately it will be a stalemate for both sides, until one side heavily reinforces. Don’t expect much activity elsewhere, other than to lose Myitkyina which I’ve held in a rear guard action as Allied troops pull back toward Imphal and Ledo. With the IJA/IJN air still pretty robust out of Burma, I don’t expect much Allied naval action to support Akyab - just quick CL/DD bombardment runs out of Diamond Harbor.
China. Sian and Wenchow both fell in Jun, and both incurred heavy losses to the Chinese. The IJA juggernaut continues to advance in the NE, and with the fall of Wenchow, now in the south. I don’t see that stopping any time soon, and I fully expect to see the situation worsen. I’m now withdrawing as quickly as the sluggish Chinese can to more interior lines - this may even force the abandonment of Changsa! The AVG officially withdraws in Jul, and will be replaced by other US fighter units, and for a limited experiment - two squadrons on British Wellingtons to try and counter the limited Jpn strat bombing of Chinese industry with attacks on Hong Kong and other targets in China.
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< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 6/23/2015 12:44:42 AM >
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RE: 26-27 Jun 42 - 
Seriously that's unfortunate as that looked like a golden opportunity. 
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