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RE: 11-12 Sep 44 - 2/12/2020 1:35:09 AM   
IdahoNYer


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Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Catching up!!

Your Aug18-19 was a hell of a fight!! you probably finished his air force; I doubt he will have the time or the HI to recover pilots or aircraft

Have you think about expediting the home island invasion? (instead or in parallel to Okinawa), based on the results of that battle?

Also, have you thought about pushing hard for Hong Kong? once you have it, you won't need to move the fleet back to PH anymore


yeah....that East China Sea Furball was one for the ages Jorge! Nail biting replay....hoping it wasn't the synch bug I was watching. Still - weather saved the Fleet on the second day! And I don't buy that it gutted L_S_T's air power. My bet is he's got the airframes already replaced - producing aircraft and engines was a a major focus.

Yes...I'm "thinking" about the HI invasion plans - but I currently don't have troops avail. SWPAC Troops will be the lucky volunteers, but first they need to take Manila. Most other US troops will be tied up on either Formosa and Okinawa for a while - and I need those bases for the strategic air campaign. That Strat air campaign is my focus right now - seize the bases to enable that campaign; both bomber bases (Luzon and Formosa) and fighter bases (The Okinawa chain). Debating where to land the SWPAC forces when avail....may do something different like Hokkaido.

As for Hong Kong, yes....would be nice. Haven't really thought it would be a possibility as I've been surprised at the IJA's withdrawals. I doubt L_S_T will offer it on a silver platter. Have thought about landing elements of the Commonwealth Burma Armies on the Chinese coast after they secure Vietnam...but that decision can wait. First I need to see where the IJA's withdrawal ends up - who knows.....maybe Chungking will be in play? If so, that would be a focus for the Chinese troops....lots of destroyed units would be back in play!



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Post #: 1381
RE: 11-12 Sep 44 - 2/12/2020 2:06:59 AM   
Jorge_Stanbury


Posts: 4320
Joined: 2/29/2012
From: Toronto and Lima
Status: offline 		airframes, maybe.. pilots, I doubt, from now on you can expect kamis and really low level recruits

and yes, a methodical advance is more beneficial because you know he can't stop it; while a gamble can misfire and put you off the timeline

I don't know about Chungking, problem is it might take a lot of time to seize, and by the time you bring back Chinese LCUs, they might not be needed anymore, as the Red army will start rolling south. That is why HK is more tempting, IMO. It will come very handy for the end-game invasion: refuel, rearm repair, bring back online kami-damaged ships at a fraction of time you would take from PH

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Post #: 1382
RE: 11-12 Sep 44 - 2/12/2020 2:25:58 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		Slow and steady wins the game for the Allies.

Kamikazes are of limited use and are best used against troop loaded soft targets.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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Post #: 1383
RE: 11-12 Sep 44 - 2/14/2020 5:48:08 PM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury


I don't know about Chungking, problem is it might take a lot of time to seize, and by the time you bring back Chinese LCUs, they might not be needed anymore, as the Red army will start rolling south. That is why HK is more tempting, IMO. It will come very handy for the end-game invasion: refuel, rearm repair, bring back online kami-damaged ships at a fraction of time you would take from PH



Frankly, a few months ago (game time), never considered either Chungking or Hong Kong would even be remotely possible. Now...both are pretty much front line bases. Hong Kong would be more of a possible use of the Commonwealth forces being freed up in Indochina shortly perhaps. Definitely a worthwhile objective with its port - better than Manila which is what I had been planning on utilizing. Chungking only if the IJA continues its withdrawals....getting all those destroyed units back to disband and put those squads in the pools would be a game ender for Japan in China...Russians or not coming into the fray.

Lots to think on in the next couple of months!

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Post #: 1384
13-14 Sep 44 - 2/14/2020 6:00:25 PM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		13-14 Sep 44

Highlights – Enterprise reaches Orchid Is; IJA pullback in China continues.

Jpn ships sunk:
MTB: 3
xAK: 2

Jpn ships un-sunk:
SS: 2 (I-43, RO-117)

Allied ships sunk: None

Air loss:
Jpn: 09
Allied: 14

Subwar:
Jpn: 0 Attacks, 0 ships hit
Allies: 2 Attacks, 0 ships hit

Jpn Amph Inv: None

Allied Amph Inv: None

Bases lost: None

Bases Liberated: None

SIGINT/Intel: IJN subs seem to have been withdrawn from attempting to engage US Fleet.

West Coast/Admin: NSTR.

In NOPAC, NSTR.

In CENPAC, the troop pullout from Guam has begun as the last 1200 defenders are eliminated. The 77th ID is the first off and will begin its journey to Pearl to refit. 38th ID will begin loading next turn, and along with the 2nd Mar Div will head to Naga. The In Reg will remain as a token garrison until the Kuriles heat up in '45. US Navy Heavies rest, and will begin a limited bombing campaign against the isolated major bastions of Saipan, Tinian and Truk. Lastly, Venturas out of Pagan catch a pair of xAKs off Haha-jima and manage to hit one with a single bomb setting her on fire. A PBY squadron is brought in for some additional long range anti-shipping duties and may look to bring in a 4 engine patrol bombing or two as well to harass shipping still cruising in and around the Bonin Islands.

In SOPAC, Enterprise disbands at Orchid Is with its float at 74. She cranes off her airgroup and will remain at the level 1 port until an AR from Naga arrives and she can reduce her damage a bit. She’ll eventually “leapfrog” further south to the PI, as she’s very vulnerable at Orchid despite a robust CAP. On Formosa, three US divisions and support arrive at Takao, and the first ground bombardment will begin next turn. Three more divisions are still “enroute”, two slowly trudging from Hengchun and the 5th Mar Div, just coming ashore at Kagi. One more major convoy is enroute to Kagi bringing in the majority of the remaining support troops, the remaining assault transports have departed to Naga for future operations. The CV TFs will depart from Orchid Is overwatch and head east to position just southwest of Okinawa to stir up trouble. Three CVE TFs replenish at Hengchun from the Repl TF and one CVE TF (6CVE) will remain at Orchid to bolster the CAP. The IJN sub threat seems to be heading to home ports, licking their wounds; a number of subs were reported heading north in the East China Sea - will reduce the ASW TFs hunting subs east and NE of Formosa, and focus the ASW effort around the US TFs.

In SWPAC, two Bde sized Amph TFs will set out next turn from Naga to Madjene and Jolo to embark Aussie Bdes for the Kume-jima and Miyako-jima respectively. Will look to begin loading troops for Miyako next turn, and then follow on with Kume-jima. Still need to sort out the covering CA TFs, still under SOPAC control around Formosa, although some have been released to head to Saigon for some quick repairs. BB TF (3BB, DDs) bombards Manila for the first time with good effect, inflicting over 300 casualties. The BBs rearm at Subic Bay, and will continue bombardment runs on a regular basis.

In China, the Chinese troops continue to probe in the wake of the withdrawing IJA troops. The remaining troops withdrawing toward Canton are finally engaged; the IJA rearguard of 3000 troops withdraws into Canton with 2200 less troops after the attack. Chinese troops enter the outskirts of Wuchow from the NW to find only a IN Bde defending, which begs the question of whether or not L_S_T is looking at defending both Canton and Hong Kong. The real prize would of course be liberating Chungking, but I can’t imagine that city not being bitterly defended. That said, it does appear an IJA line is being established along that riverline - but it is not established yet, and the Chinese Cav that liberated Patung is attempting to gain a bridgehead in the WR terrain north of the river - so far it appears vacant. The screenshot below shows the current situation in China with the advances continuing.

In SE Asia, XXXIII and III Corps troops continue to develop the situation around Vinh, engaging the troops to the north of Vinh successfully, inflicting over 2800 casualties with minimal cost of only 100 troops, the 255th Indian Tk Bde pursuing, and will attack the remnants next turn as well ensuring there will not be much of these two IJA Bdes to reform in the Hanoi area. Will look to begin attacks against Vinh in about a week or so, and will bombard next turn to see what we’re up against now that the base is isolated. Stacking/supply balance remains challenging at Vinh, and that will play to the IJA’s favor. Will look to perhaps using some naval bombardments in the coming days as well now that the need for the cruisers around Formosa has passed.




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RE: 13-14 Sep 44 - 2/14/2020 6:03:44 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


Posts: 4320
Joined: 2/29/2012
From: Toronto and Lima
Status: offline 		Looking at this last map: you are certainly right... Chungking should be taken,

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Post #: 1386
RE: 13-14 Sep 44 - 2/14/2020 6:14:07 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		Those Japanese units in clear terrain should hear the bombs dropping on them. Then you could even force the river defensive line itself.

Naval squads will also help the Enterprise.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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Post #: 1387
RE: 13-14 Sep 44 - 2/15/2020 11:38:12 PM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Those Japanese units in clear terrain should hear the bombs dropping on them. Then you could even force the river defensive line itself.



Allied airforces have been having a field day hitting IJA columns on the move in those clear hexes for a while! Nice to have enough supply in Chinese bases for bombers to operate regularly.

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Post #: 1388
15-16 Sep 44 - 2/15/2020 11:48:02 PM   
IdahoNYer


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Status: offline 		15-16 Sep 44

Highlights – US CVs hit ASW TF off Okinawa; BBs bombarding Manila do well.

Jpn ships sunk:
SS: 1 (RO-117)
SC: 3
AR: 1
xAKL: 1

Allied ships sunk: None

Air loss:
Jpn: 11
Allied: 21

Subwar:
Jpn: 0 Attacks, 0 ships hit
Allies: 1 Attack, 1 ship hit (xAKL sunk)

Jpn Amph Inv: None

Allied Amph Inv: None

Bases lost: None

Bases Liberated:
Kota Bharu (SE Asia)

SIGINT/Intel: NSTR.

West Coast/Admin: NSTR.

In NOPAC, NSTR.

In CENPAC, NSTR.

In SOPAC, US CVs only launch at a single ASW TF off Okinawa, sinking all three SCs. A number of small TFs, reported to be PBs, sighted amongst the Okinawa chain, so will close the range a bit and also send a DD TF in to stir things up. Goal is to begin isolation of the Okinawan chain and maintain it - that will require the CV TFs to remain off the islands for a while. Initial ground bombardment of Takao is mixed, with only about 100 casualties inflicted, but worrisome is the 50 or so casualties inflicted by return fire. So, the 30k IJA troops there have some fight left - about three divisions worth of combat troops, including the 1st Gds and 16th IDs. Will need some additional prep before attacking, so the full weight of airpower will now focus on Takao next turn and see if I can maintain that for a while. Will look to perhaps engaging some naval bombardments in the near term as well, but I know the port is mined and coastal batteries are present. This one will be a tough nut to crack.

In SWPAC, the BBs do well against Manila, inflicting over 600 casualties. Getting closer to launching the first ground assault…maybe a week away; troop preparation levels are almost there. Assault transports still enroute to Bdes earmarked for the Kume-jima and Miyako-jima amphib operations, so the main body at Naga hasn’t started loading yet. About a division and a half plus support going in on each of these landings, I hope that’s enough against an estimated Bde sized defense.

In China, troops close on Wuchow and will begin an attack next turn. Looks like the IJA lines are beginning to stabilize near Chungking and Changsa areas, but not sure where the line will be drawn near Canton yet.

In SE Asia, The 255th Indian Tk Bde attacks the remnants of the two Bdes east of Vinh one more time, inflicting another 1500 casualties, but the last remnants will likely be able to fall back to Haiphong or Hanoi before the Allied troops can catch up and make another attack. Will focus more LBA against Vinh beginning next turn, and will also sortie a naval bombardment once some minor repairs are finished on available cruisers at Saigon. XV Corps elements secure Kota Bharu without a fight, and will launch its attack on Georgetown next turn as fresh troops, such as the two West African divisions, are passed forward of the Indian 17th ID and continue the drive south on both coasts. At sea, I’m making an effort to re-mission a number of Indian Ocean supply convoys from Rangoon runs to the South China Sea; increasing the supply flow from the DEI bases of Batavia/Soerabaja to Saigon as well as local runs from Saigon/Cam Ranh Bay to Pakhoi.





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17-18 Sep 44 - 2/26/2020 12:07:24 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		17-18 Sep 44

Highlights – Wuchow taken; first B-29s arrive at Luzon AFs.

Jpn ships sunk:
SST: 1 (Yu-5)
PB: 2
AR: 1
xAK: 1

Allied ships sunk: None

Air loss:
Jpn: 14
Allied: 17

Subwar:
Jpn: 0 Attacks, 0 ships hit
Allies: 3 Attacks, 2 ships hit (PB sunk, xAK dam)

Jpn Amph Inv: None

Allied Amph Inv: None

Bases lost: None

Bases Liberated:
Georgetown (SE Asia)
Wuchow (China)

SIGINT/Intel: NSTR.

West Coast/Admin: BB Wisconsin arrives at Balboa.

In NOPAC, NSTR.

In CENPAC, NSTR.

In SOPAC, US DD TF (3DDs) sink one of two PBs encountered off Amami Oshima, but drive the other PB into the sights of a sub which sinks her. The CV TFs come up empty, a/c only coming up with a reported hit on a sub. The CV TFs internally fuel, and one will head south to top off with the Repl TF. The Fleet will sail near Daito Shoto to keep the umbrella over the Okinawas. CV Hancock arrives at Naga and will wait to rendezvous with Brit CV Indomitable and CVL Belleau Wood currently transiting the Celebes Sea. Air and ground bombardments of Takao do better, and will sail a CA TF (3CA, CL, DDs) to bombard next turn. Still a while before any ground assault will be undertaken as the troops landed at Hengchun are still crawling toward the objective. Lastly, CV Enterprise has its float damage down to 67, and will sail south another two hexes to Calayan island, another level 1 port, still overwatched by a CVE TF. She’ll sail to Luzon next, eventually to Lingayen until Manila is taken. In any case, chances of getting the Big E back into the fight any time soon just isn’t going to happen.

In SWPAC, BB Maryland joins BBs California and Pensy in the Manila bombardment runs as the last two artillery battalions move to join in on the bombardments. Figure a week max before the first attack. Also on Luzon, the first B-29s are flown in to Appari, Laoag and Tuguegarao. Appari has reached AF8, while more blade work is needed on the other two, still at level 7. Will look to have 2-3 B-29 groups at each AF to begin strategic bombing as soon the remaining bombers out of Pearl arrive and the other AFs reach level 8. The Miyako-jima main Amphib main body begins loading at both Iloilo (IN Bde) and Naga (Div and support). One IN Bde for the Kume-jima landings begins loading at Madjene on Celebes, and will head north to Naga where the main body will begin loading in a turn or two.

In China, Wuchow, with its level 5 forts is taken in one attack by Chinese forces, lack of supplies being the primary cause of the Allied success. Chinese troops, augmented with a division and a half of East African troops will continue to press SE toward Canton and Hong Kong. Still not clear if L_S_T will defend Canton or Hong Kong, but will pressure him here regardless. And until more supplies can come in via Pakhoi and Kwangchowan, any major offensive undertaking isn’t realistic.

In SE Asia, as Allied advance troops near Hanoi and Haiphong from both west and east, Vinh remains a challenge. Increased air bombardments achieve little and the ground bombardments, also not doing much, will need to be suspended for lack of supplies. A CA TF (CA, 3CL, DDs) will depart Saigon to begin bombardment runs against the dug in Vinh defenders, but will need to seize Vinh sooner rather than later so the main body of the 14th Army can focus on the last bastions of Haiphong and Hanoi. Meanwhile, the XV Corps continues its progress toward Singapore by taking Georgetown without much issue.




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Post #: 1390
19-20 Sep 44 - 3/17/2020 9:56:07 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		19-20 Sep 44

A bit behind in the AAR with a busy work schedule....will try and catch up over next few days!

Highlights – Naval bombardment of Takao does well; LR recon planes begin arriving on Formosa to begin sustained recon flights over Japan.

Jpn ships sunk:
E: 1
AV: 1

Allied ships sunk: None

Air loss:
Jpn: 40
Allied: 25

Subwar:
Jpn: 0 Attacks, 0 ships hit
Allies: 1 Attack, 0 ships hit (CS missed in a big AO convoy still sailing in the Sea of Japan)

Jpn Amph Inv: None

Allied Amph Inv: None

Bases lost: None

Bases Liberated: None

SIGINT/Intel: NSTR.

West Coast/Admin: NSTR.

In NOPAC, NSTR.

In CENPAC, Navy Heavies hitting Tinian do well without loss. Will continue air attacks on remaining IJA controlled islands in the Marianas as combat troops continue to come off Guam. Recon planes arrive at Pagan and will begin recon flights over central Japan, starting with Tokyo and Nagoya.

In SOPAC, CV TF moves off Daito Shoto and is the focus of sustained air search, likely out of the atoll. 30 Jakes are splashed by CAP. All TFs now refueled, the Fleet will move a bit west to link up with the CV TF refueling at the Repl TF as well as the reinforcing CV TF (2CV, CVL, DDs) coming up from Naga. Once joined, the Fleet will once again look for trouble in support of the Miyako-jima Amph operation. On Formosa, the first long range recon squadrons base at Kagi and Taichu and will begin sustained recon flights over Japan, ranging as far as Osaka. The first naval bombardment of Takao does well, the CA TF (3CA, CL, DDs) inflicting over 350 casualties and not finding any mines the hard way. The sustained air bombardments are also making progress, inflicting over 500 casualties in two days. Still much to be reduced, and troops moving out of Hengchun are still slowly crawling forward. Once all assembled, will look to begin the ground attacks.

In SWPAC, the bombardments of Manila continue with reasonably good effect. B-29s continue to arrive at the three main airfields in Luzon as engineers continue their work. The Miyako-jima Amphib TFs will depart Naga and link up with those already at sea, including CVE and CA TFs in support. Will look to land troops in a few days, and will need to shift some bombers hitting Takao to support the Amphib operations. Kume-jima Amphib is slowly loading its first Bde, the main body and support troops are holding until that first IN Bde completes loading.

In China, NSTR.

In SE Asia, NSTR.





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< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 3/17/2020 10:37:07 PM >

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Post #: 1391
RE: 19-20 Sep 44 - 3/17/2020 10:11:38 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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From: Toronto and Lima
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looking forward to the fireworks report.. hope it was not too bad



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RE: 19-20 Sep 44 - 3/17/2020 10:36:18 PM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury



looking forward to the fireworks report.. hope it was not too bad




more than just a flesh wound Jorge! Will finish up the turn tonight....hopefully it doesn't get worse. LST has been waiting a long time for that kinda strike....so standby.

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Post #: 1393
21-22 Sep 44 - 3/17/2020 10:42:47 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		21-22 Sep 44

Highlights – Sustained recon flights over the Home Islands begin.

Jpn ships sunk:
TK: 1

Allied ships sunk: None

Air loss:
Jpn: 16
Allied: 24

Subwar:
Jpn: 0 Attacks, 0 ships hit
Allies: 0 Attacks, 0 ships hit

Jpn Amph Inv: None

Allied Amph Inv: None

Bases lost: None

Bases Liberated:
Lang Son (SE Asia)
Zamboanga (SWPAC)

SIGINT/Intel: Initial recon flights over the Home Islands report heavy fighter concentrations (400 or so planes) in Nagasaki, Tokyo and Nagoya. Few fighters elsewhere so far.

West Coast/Admin: NSTR.

In NOPAC, NSTR.

In CENPAC, NSTR.

In SOPAC, Fleet will move to support the Miyako-jima landings, and CA TF (2CA, CL, DDs) will bombard. Other than subs which remain sighted in the area, I don’t expect any other response to the landings.

In SWPAC, the Miyako-jima landing will go in next turn, preceded by air and naval bombardments. Hoping the division and an IN Bde plus supporting troops will be enough. Expect it probably will, just a question of how long it will take as I don’t expect a major response. Majority of the Kume-jima troops continue to wait for the one IN Bde at Madjene to finish loading - taking a while at the minimal port facilities. Just as well there will be a gap between these two landings; easier to provide support. In a “mop up” operation, the 30th Aus Bde takes Zamobanga on Mindanao - the last Jpn held base on the island. Troops still have to eliminate the last of the defenders, but this will allow the 30th Aussie Bde to reinforce either Kume or Miyako jima if needed. On Luzon, the last of the B-29s arrive, although now supply is an issue on at the airfields…another reason to get the attack and seizing of Manila over with. Getting close….

In China, recon is showing limited defenders around Chungking……will look to possibly push a few Corps across the river to the west of the city and see if a bridgehead can be established…..although I find it hard to believe Chungking is really going to potentially be a target for liberation. Troops also begin moving toward Canton in the south - as with Chungking, very surprised that this city is even in the realm of discussion right now.

In SE Asia, troops enter the outskirts of Hanoi and will bombard next turn. Lang Son is taken to the east as IJA troops pull back towards Hanoi - the noose is getting tighter! Looks as though the IJA last stand will be at Haiphong which is of course protected by rivers. To the west, IJA troops remain entrenched at Vinh, and the first naval bombardment will go in next turn. Allied troops need to rest for additional supplies to be brought in, and then the first attack will go in. On the Malay peninsula, the XV Corps continues to advance south from Georgetown, this time with three divisions and support in the van of the main attack.

(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1394
23-24 Sep 44 - 3/19/2020 4:46:07 AM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		23-24 Sep 44

Highlights – Troops ashore at Miyako-jima; IJN sub activity picks up, but the USN takes care of business.

Jpn ships sunk:
SS: 1 (I-185)
xAP: 1
xAK: 1

Allied ships sunk: None

Air loss:
Jpn: 8
Allied: 14

Subwar:
Jpn: 0 Attacks, 0 ships hit (IJN sub lays mines off Bataan and is crippled as mines are swept; another sub is sunk by CV TF screen)
Allies: 0 Attacks, 0 ships hit

Jpn Amph Inv: None

Allied Amph Inv:
Mikayo-jima (SWPAC)

Bases lost: None

Bases Liberated:
Taipang (SE Asia)

SIGINT/Intel: IJN subs are back, apparently hunting the US CV TFs supporting the Mikayo-jima landings. No indication of coordinated air attacks in support. Air recon is finding key Home Island bases protected by over 250 fighters while other, lesser sites are not covered at all.

West Coast/Admin: NSTR.

In NOPAC, NSTR.

In CENPAC, NSTR.

In SOPAC, the Fleet in support of Miyako-jima landings is now a magnet for about half a dozen IJN submarines. One is sunk after being forced to the surface, another damaged by escorts, while two more are claimed hit by ASW a/c. Although ASW efforts have been successful so far, the Fleet will move south and then east towards Japan - in theory avoiding the subs and getting in position to potentially support B-29 raids. The Miyako landing troops are ashore, and the majority of the transports will head home - the CVE TFs will provide cover to the remaining assault shipping delivering supplies and support troops. On Formosa, troops continue to focus on Takao, and a CA TF (3CA, CL, DDs) bombards with good effect, inflicting over 400 casualties. Will continue the ground, air and sea bombardments for at least another week as troops moving out of Hengchun are sill a ways away.

In SWPAC, the Miyako-jima landing went ashore in exceptionally good order, and will be able to attack next turn. The defenders look to be a Mixed Bde, likely dug in of course. The Aussie Div and Bde plus support should be enough….fingers crossed. On Luzon, the initial attack on Manila is getting close! IJN subs laid mines at Bataan in an attempt to derail the BB bombardments of Manila, but sweepers dealt with both the mines and the sub without loss. Figure the initial attack will go in within a week - some minor supply difficulties right now bringing in enough with the poor ports.

In China, the general advance continues! In the south, troops are advancing west of Wuchow, attempting to flank the city which looks to be well defended, but the clear terrain to the east looks undefended. The real surprise is in the Chungking area - the hex to the west of the city looks minimally defended, so 4 Chinese Corps will attempt to force a river crossing! Allied air will be in full support with a heavy and medium bomb group.

In SE Asia, I’ve decided to shuffle some troops around Vinh, swapping in a better prepared Indian Division for a Brit Div that was prepping for Hanoi. As soon as that swap is complete, will begin the ground attacks. In support, the initial CA TF (2CA, 2CL, DDs) bombardment accomplishes little, inflicting only 80 casualties. I expect Vinh to be a very heavily fortified base. Troops east of Hanoi will attack the IJA Bde that withdrew from Lang Son, and then look to attack Haiphong in the coming weeks. In Malaya, the venerable XV Corps continues its advance south towards Singers, taking the level 3 fortified Taipang from a number of misc support units - inflicting over 1200 casualties. The advance will continue south!




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Post #: 1395
RE: 23-24 Sep 44 - 3/19/2020 1:17:47 PM   
jwolf

 

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quote:

IJN subs are back, apparently hunting the US CV TFs supporting the Mikayo-jima landings. No indication of coordinated air attacks in support.


Well ... at the moment, maybe. I ... heard a rumor ... that something significant may have happened a bit later.

(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1396
RE: 23-24 Sep 44 - 3/28/2020 4:37:59 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

quote:

IJN subs are back, apparently hunting the US CV TFs supporting the Mikayo-jima landings. No indication of coordinated air attacks in support.


Well ... at the moment, maybe. I ... heard a rumor ... that something significant may have happened a bit later.



Ain't that the truth!!!

(in reply to jwolf)
Post #: 1397
25-26 Sep 44 - 3/28/2020 4:56:40 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		25-26 Sep 44

Highlights – Miyako-jima taken in the first attack; US CV raid coastal shipping around the Home Islands.

Jpn ships sunk:
SC: 11
xAK: 1

Allied ships sunk: None

Air loss:
Jpn: 131
Allied: 47

Subwar:
Jpn: 0 Attacks, 0 ships hit
Allies: 0 Attacks, 0 ships hit

Jpn Amph Inv: None

Allied Amph Inv: None

Bases lost: None

Bases Liberated:
Miyako-jima (SWPAC)

SIGINT/Intel: Apparently some of those fighters reported at Home Island bases are training missions…this really shouldn’t be a surprise, but hadn’t thought of that….US fighters found out with the direct method.

Strategic Bombing Campaign: A new category to discuss the upcoming Strat bombing campaign (all raids against industry in the Home Islands and Korea). This turn, all B-29s, less one Group remaining at Laoag in Luzon transferred to bases in Formosa to “shuttle bomb” manpower targets at Fukuoka on northern Kyushu. That should equate to about 160 bombers if weather and dice rolls cooperate. They’ll return to Luzon bases next turn as the Formosa bases are still a bit exposed and under developed (lvl 7). The remaining 30 bombers in Luzon will hit manpower at Kagoshima. The Fleet will provide both sweeps and LRCAP in support.

West Coast/Admin: NSTR.

In NOPAC, NSTR.

In CENPAC, NSTR.

In SOPAC, the Fleet moves east away from the Miyako landings in search of targets near the Home Islands and finds a number of ASW TFs as well as a small convoy off Fukuoka on northern Kyushu. Carrier air does well, sinking 11 SC and damaging a number of merchants. Fighters also tangled with both CAP and fighters on training missions over targets successfully, downing some 82 IJA fighters in exchange for 5 Corsairs and 4 Hellcats, but the defending CAP got into one TBF squadron pretty well, downing 13 TBFs. Still, the Fleet’s aircraft did well announcing its presence off mainland Japan, and will now move 120m NE to provide sweeps and LRCAP for the first B-29 raid on mainland Japan, targeting Fukuoka. Will limint naval attack range to 4 hexes, more defensive than offensive in nature as the focus for fighters will be over Fukuoka and defending the Fleet. Where the Fleet heads next depends on the outcome of those raids - may linger longer off Japan, both hunting coastal targets and supporting the B-29 raids, or may need to replenish to support the upcoming landings at Kume-jima. CVEs and CA TFs continue support of the Miyako-jima amphib with the support troops now coming ashore. On Formosa, the focus remains Takao, although most LBA will shift off Takao to Manila next turn.

In SWPAC, Miyako-jima is taken in the first assault, the defending 50th Mixed Bde was dug in to fort level 3, was handily defeated, being wiped out at a cost of 81 casualties. Much better, and quicker results than I expected! Engineers will now pour in to get the AF up and running. SWPAC focus is now Manila! All available LBA bombers in range, as well as a BB and CA TF bombardment run, will support the first ground assault on the Japanese fortified base - still reporting about 80k defenders, but after a few weeks of brutal air, ground and naval bombardments, I have to figure they are heavily fatigued and disabled. The initial attack will have 7 Divisions, 2 IN Regiments, plus much artillery, engineers and armor in support. All fully rested, and most fully prepared. I still expect a bloody day reducing the fortifications. This one will take a week or more is my best guess. Another infantry division, two IN regiments and two engineer units are in reserve to swap out with depleted units. This is the attack I’ve been dreading! Lastly, the Aus IN Bde finally completes loading at Madjene, and begins its journey to Naga and then on to Kume-jima. Will look to begin loading the Kume-jima main body next turn at Naga.

In China, the big news is that troops are across the Yangtze River west of Chungking in force! Four Corps are across without combat as the defenders appear to only be engineers. Chungking looks to be heavily defended, but getting across the river without a major fight is truly surprising. So now both Canton in the south, along with even Hong Kong, and now Chungking are threatened by direct attack. Who’d have though this was even remotely possible a month ago??

In SE Asia, with the brutal attack on Manila to go in next turn, why not through major attacks into Vinh and Hanoi at the same time…..maybe one or two will work out well? Vinh will be tough, the four Bdes plus support appear to be well fortified. Two CA TFs will bombard, along with all available US SE Asia bombers will provide support. Hanoi looks to be lightly held, so I’m not focusing too much effort there. Once Hanoi falls, can look to eliminate the final IJA bastion of Haiphong. Meanwhile, the XV Corps continues its slow and steady progress in the Malayan peninsula towards Singers.




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(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1398
27-28 Sep 44 - 3/28/2020 5:41:34 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		27-28 Sep 44

Highlights – More than a Flesh Wound…US Fleet gets mauled by mass Kamikaze strikes off Japan; Manila, Hanoi and Vinh taken.

Jpn ships sunk:
DD: 1 (Kiyonami)
SC: 6
AV: 1
xAKL: 1

Allied ships sunk:
CV: 5 (Lexington, Yorktown, Bunker Hill, Hancock, America)
CVL: Cabot, Langley, Independence)
DD: 2 (Ammen, Caperton)

Air loss:
Jpn: 2,604
Allied: 701

Subwar:
Jpn: 0 Attacks, 0 ships hit
Allies: 1 Attack, 0 ships hit

Jpn Amph Inv: None

Allied Amph Inv: None

Bases lost: None

Bases Liberated:
Hanoi (SE Asia)
Vinh (SE Asia)
Manila (SWPAC)

SIGINT/Intel: Well….I’m floored! Never thought L_S_T would be able to bring that kind of massive air attack after last month’s losses and the supply challenges. Very nasty way to find out! Bottom line….Japan has plenty of fight left!

Strategic Bombing Campaign: Good B-29 raids on Fukuoka with 247 B-29 sorties over the two days, supported by Navy sweeps. No fighter opposition at all. Light to moderate damage from targeting manpower at 16k feet. Raids on Kagoshima only managed 30 sorties over two days and no damage was observed. Raids gained 330 VP from the first attempt at strat bombing. With the carriers heading south with the tail between their legs, CV fighter support won’t be happening for a while. B-29s will shift to night bombing, with three squadrons targeting each Shimonoseki (Oil), Hiroshima (HI), and Nagasaki (HI).

West Coast/Admin: NSTR.

In NOPAC, NSTR.

In CENPAC, NSTR.

In SOPAC, OK…the Fleet had it’s a$s handed to it. No easy way to brush this off, this was a BAD turn with 5 CVs and 3 CVLs sunk, and 2 BBs crippled. A few other ships were damaged, but not heavily. Of course, the Fleet is still well within LBA range, so this story may not be over. Here’s the rundown….the plan was for the Fleet to move in support of B-29 strikes against Fukuoka. CVs were to provide the sweeps and LRCAP over the target, while maintaining a strike element against potential naval targets and still manage about 500 fighters on CAP which I “assumed” would be more than enough to keep the skies clear. While I figured this may elicit a response, I never considered L_S_T capable of launching over 7000 sorties against the Fleet in a single day! Yes, I counted the planes on the combat report! I got a hint of the trouble coming when the sweeps over Fukuoka were not opposed. The first of 70 (yes SEVENTY!) Japanese raids totaled 594 a/c, a good mix of fighters and Kamikazes. This initial raid was met by a robust layered CAP of 496 fighters. That initial raid managed 28 Kamikazes to attack ships, and two were successful; CV America and CVL San Jacinto were hit. The raids kept coming. Some almost as large as this one, some as small as 6 planes. The CAP did well, shooting down a total of 1,794 raiders in exchange for 164 fighters. And they kept coming! And coming! Strangely, most raiders targeted one of the three primary TFs in The Fleet (3 CV and 1 BB TFs, plus DD TFs). Adm Reeves’ CV TF received all this attention over the two days - all CVs and CVLs sunk came from his TF, as did the two BB cripples (Washington and Indiana). Would love to know how the cyber AI managed that! Needless to say, the number of strikes gradually reduced AA Ammo in the TF to nothing, and the CAP was just worn down to where the last strikes of the morning came in without meeting any CAP at all. Most critical damage was done in these last few raids of the first morning. Afternoon strikes met a refreshed CAP, but were still powerful strikes, and the 21 strikes again wore down the CAP so they were eventually getting through in numbers and gaining hits. The second day had much less activity, just over 2000 strikes total, but since a few ships had broken off into “escort TFs”, outside of CAP range, they were effective enough as the CAP was again worn down.



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< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 3/28/2020 5:44:52 PM >

(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1399
RE: 27-28 Sep 44 - 3/28/2020 5:42:25 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline


So, after all the carnage, the Fleet will of course withdraw. I had two choices, run like hell, or protect the cripples. I’ve chosen to protect the two cripple BBs heading south. I’ve re-organized the two remaining CV TFs a bit, cross leveling those ships with AA ammo into those TFs, and adding two of the three BBs from the BB TF to the CV TFs (BC Renown will remain in the BB TF to protect the Fleet). As for air, fighters remain close to full strength, with the replenishment CVEs providing a number of Hellcats. This should amount to over 400 planes on CAP again, taking the risk of minimizing escorts to minimal strike capability - most dive bombers and torpedo looking for subs. I’m also going to sortie two CVE TFs from duty at Miyako-jima, and link up with the Fleet. Those 20 CVEs can provide another 400+ fighters, although most are Wildcats and the CVEs are pretty vulnerable. Still, they may draw off some strikes enroute, and can augment the existing CAP over the carriers. Outside of another massed Kamikaze attack, the greatest threat is a sub slowing a TF, or causing an escort TF to be created, leaving that ship at the mercy of Kamikazes. Light surface forces such as MTBs are also a threat, and I’ve put a number of attack squadrons on low naval to hopefully counter any light naval threat. The real question is after losing 2600 a/c, what’s left in L_S_T’s tank? Since I didn’t think he could mass anything like these last two days’ raids, I’m not discounted another busy day.

In SWPAC, the long awaited assault on Manila went in, and to my great surprise, took the fort level 5 city in the first attack! Casualties were “acceptable”, especially as the city was taken; almost 9000 IJA to 7000 US. Will need to rest the force next turn, and will swap out some reduced units with the fresh troops standing by. Will still be a week’s grind or more to eliminate the last of the defenders, but taking the base on the initial assault was a big plus. Engineers will immediately begin reducing damage (which is extensive), and the port is open for supply runs immediately. Will look to moving the crippled CV Enterprise in to Manila’s repair yards shortly, as well as any other damaged US ships. Elsewhere, with the US Fleet badly in need of resupply now (hopefully nothing else will go wrong), the Kume-jima landings will be delayed a few days. Plan remains the same, Kume-jima is up next on the hit parade, and will need the full support of the Fleet. The real question is what next after Kume-jima….

In China, troops clear out the IJA troops west of Chungking - only 1000 engineers were defending. Will continue to develop the situation around Chungking, with troops heading NW towards Neikiang as well as due north. In the south, troops move into Canton which looks to be heavily defended, as well as skirting the city to the NE. Again, will continue to develop the situation.

In SE Asia, a good day. Both Vinh and Hanoi are taken in the first assaults. At Vinh, a robust fort level 4 defense inflicts about 4000 Allied casualties over two days in exchange for 3200 IJA. But the IJA troops are surrounded, and once the Allied troops rest a bit, the attacks will continue to wipe out the remaining 20k defenders. Hanoi was less dramatic, 1500 IJA troops lost to only 30 Allied in a rear guar action, despite Hanoi being at fort level 4. Troops fresh from Lang Son, will head into Hanoi in preparation for the attack on Haiphong. The IJA remnants withdrew into Haiphong which will be a much tougher task to take. XV Corps continues to make progress in Malaya, pushing back another rear guard defense south of Gerogetown, less the 800 casualties. This will allow troops to begin driving on Kuala Lumpur

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< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 3/28/2020 5:43:10 PM >

(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1400
RE: 27-28 Sep 44 - 3/28/2020 5:49:28 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		And here's the combat report

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(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1401
RE: 27-28 Sep 44 - 3/28/2020 6:32:34 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


Posts: 4320
Joined: 2/29/2012
From: Toronto and Lima
Status: offline 		2-day turns definitively played against you, as you would had ordered a better withdrawal than those escort TFs

was there any airbase in range? or did everyone ditched?

I think your main worry should be the fact he has nothing left to lose, he can take any risk now,
if I was in his position I would just focus anything left to re build a good kami force; probably won't be as big, but still capable. But rebuilding would take time, I agree so you should keep pushing on your invasion timeline, go for the "-jimas"




_____________________________


(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1402
RE: 27-28 Sep 44 - 3/29/2020 5:56:16 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

2-day turns definitively played against you, as you would had ordered a better withdrawal than those escort TFs

was there any airbase in range? or did everyone ditched?

I think your main worry should be the fact he has nothing left to lose, he can take any risk now,
if I was in his position I would just focus anything left to re build a good kami force; probably won't be as big, but still capable. But rebuilding would take time, I agree so you should keep pushing on your invasion timeline, go for the "-jimas"



yeah...two day turns can be deadly....part of the fun using them!

And this debacle isn't over yet.

A number of planes from sunk ships made it to other bases/CVEs. Not critical at this point, I have plenty of planes and pilots in late '44 (FINALLY!), and I'll use political points to buy some destroyed fighter squadrons back, and surprisingly from past experience, they'll have some pilots.

Agree, I'll see at least one more mass assault by everything L_S_T can muster....as usual, the question is when.

(in reply to Jorge_Stanbury)
Post #: 1403
29-30 Sep 44 - 3/29/2020 6:05:49 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		29-30 Sep 44

Highlights – Continued blood letting as the IJN surface forces come out to wreak havoc….my only comment, so often said in ’42-’43….”it could have been worse”

Jpn ships sunk:
BB: 1 (Hiei -torpedoed, but doubtfully in sinking condition)
CA: 1 (Myoko)
CL: 1 (Agano)
DD: 3 (Natsushio, Murakumo, Asanagi)
E: 1
SS: 1 (RO-44)
PB: 1
xAK: 3

Jpn ships un-sunk:
DD: 1 (Takanami)
SS: 1 (I-27)

Allied ships sunk:
BB: 2 (Washington, Indiana - both already crippled)
BC: 1 (Renown)
CVE: 4 (Fanshaw Bay, Breton, Natoma Bay, Gambier Bay)
DD: 10 (Dashiell, Albert Grant, McGowan, Mullany, Prichett, Radford, Remey, Sterett, Wilson, Lang)
DE: 5 (Foreman, R.S. Suesens, McConnell, Samuel Miles, Osterhaus)
LST: 1

Air loss:
Jpn: 24
Allied: 156 (mostly on the CVEs)

Subwar:
Jpn: 1 Attacks, 1 ships hit (LST sunk)
Allies: 7 Attack, 2 ships hit (PB sunk, xAK dam)

Jpn Amph Inv: None

Allied Amph Inv: None

Bases lost: None

Bases Liberated: None

SIGINT/Intel: : L_S_T committed the “Fleet in Being” at the perfect moment, likely at high speed to catch the Allies in withdrawal. The previous days air campaign had to hurt, no strikes today…and many units were still in range. Or was it conservation and let the surface dogs finish victims?

Strategic Bombing Campaign: With the Fleet heading home with its tail between its legs, Strat bombing goes to night time raids, with good overall effect. Only 19 B-29s hit Shimonoseki (Oil) which had some Irvings on CAP, and damage was limited to 11 Oil damaged at a cost of 1 B-29 to Flak. 40 B-29s hit Hiroshima (HI) with good effect, damaging 88 HI without loss, although some Irvings were on CAP. Lastly, 25 B-29s hit Nagasaki (HI), no CAP, causing 93 HI damaged. These raids raised the VPs for strat bombing to 1032 with the first attempt at night bombing, and targeting industry instead of trying to generate fires with manpower. Night bombing will likely be the norm for a while. Strat bombing will take the next two days off, the B-29s expanding squadrons from 7 to 10 planes and diverting three Groups to mine Oita and Matsuyama to interdict the Bungo Straits and Hiroshima/Kure where I think the IJN is heading.

West Coast/Admin: NSTR.

In NOPAC, NSTR.

In CENPAC, NSTR.

In SOPAC, another nasty turn as L_S_T coordinated his surface fleet superbly to chase down the withdrawing Allied Fleet. Although I knew the Fleet was intact, I really didn’t consider this option. I really, really should know better….been playing L_S_T in this PBEM for a long while, and I know he likes to do things BIG! In any case, it “could have been worse” as the CV TFs were not damaged, and evaded combat. The heroes were the numerous 2-4 ship DD TFs executing either ASW or surface action missions. The IJN TFs, two BB TF (4 BB, 2CA, CL, DDs) and (5BB, DDs), CA TF (8CA, DDs), and a CL TF (3CL, DDs) all ran into these small DD TFs and were worn down. So when the BB TF ran into the CV TF, they both avoided contact! Still, in a reenactment of Kurita of history, one BB TF ran into the reinforcing CVE TF (8CVE, CA, 2CLAA, 5DD, 3DE) and did some solid damage, sinking 4CVEs, but getting some damage, although no torpedoes in return. Now how they bypassed the CA TF that was with the CVEs is a mystery, although that likely would have just been additional US casualties. Another BB TF (with the Musashi), ran into the crippled US BBs which managed to hit Musashi enough for her to form into an escort TF. Still it wasn’t a fair fight. The Renown TF (BC, DDs) did little in return for being sunk by the same BB TF. What about the US airpower you ask?? Well, chalk this up to my poor playing. I expected subs and MTBs to try and nibble at the cripples, so most of my strike aircraft were set to ASW or night attack and search. I did have a number of TBFs on low naval to counter the MTB threat, so they were carrying bombs, not torpedoes, but they did damage a number of CLs and DDs. A few DB and TB flew normal attack missions, but dive bombing was poor as was the few torpedo attacks.

So now that more carnage is done, what’s next. The smart thing would probably be to continue all Fleet elements to Naga and sort things out. But, instead I’m sending the two CV TFs north towards Daito Shoto - Okinawa and then return. See if they can catch the withdrawing IJN ships before they make port. It’s a longshot, but I figure the IJN had to be at full speed heading south to catch the US Fleet, so now they should be sailing at reduced speed back to port - and some are straggling back damaged. Heavy CAP will be maintained, and won’t stay in range long, the Fleet will return to Naga. A CA TF (CA, 2CL, DDs) and a few DD TFs will provide support. Mediums out of Miyako-Jima will also try and reach out to catch some stragglers. One IJN TF, likely the big CA TF, looks to be heading NW from Daito Shoto instead of heading NE like all the others observed. I figure this may be a run toward the landings at Miyako-jima to catch some transports or bombard. So, shipping will be largely cleared, and light surface forces (DDs and PTs) will be there to intercept. Lastly, as mentioned, B-29s will lay mines around the Bungo Straits. On the ground in Formosa, troops that landed at Hengchun finally made it to Takao, and will join in the bombardments.

In SWPAC, the second attack on IJA troops around Manila will go in, with some fresh US troops committed. BB and CA TFs plus LBA will contribute to bombardments in support. Kume-jima troops will concentrate at Naga and be prepared to load once the Fleet get sorted out. Figure a week’s delay is optimistic, but possible.

In China, troops enter the outskirts of Canton and find about 26k defenders through a recon by bombardment. Troops continue to bypass to the east. West of Changsa, the IJA launch a spoiling attack on the advancing Chinese troops, and the Chinese hold inflicting about 3000 casualties to 2300 Chinese. In the north, troops reach Neikiang, and as it appears the IJA is withdrawing its 7k troops, the two Chinese Corps will attack, hoping to truly collapse any IJA defenses west of Chungking.

In SE Asia, another attack on IJA troops isolated near Vinh will go in, and the process of reducing this pocket will take a few days or a week. Troops continue to concentrate in Hanoi for the cross river attack to Haiphong in a few days. The CA TF (CA, 3CL, DDs) naval bombardment of Hanoi inflicted about 100 casualties, but coastal batteries damaged CA Australia (18sys) enough to send her to the yards for an overdue refit.




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(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1404
RE: 29-30 Sep 44 - 3/29/2020 6:07:45 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		and another entertaining combat report:


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(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1405
RE: 27-28 Sep 44 - 3/31/2020 12:12:36 AM   
GetAssista

 

Posts: 2732
Joined: 9/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: IdahoNYer

And here's the combat report

My god, it's full of stars!

Turkey shoot, turkey shoot, another turkey shoot... for half the report. And them boom! CAP is spent on turkeys but they are still coming.

(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1406
RE: 27-28 Sep 44 - 3/31/2020 11:34:31 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista


My god, it's full of stars!

Turkey shoot, turkey shoot, another turkey shoot... for half the report. And them boom! CAP is spent on turkeys but they are still coming.



Yeah....that's a short and sweet synopsis of a debacle!

(in reply to GetAssista)
Post #: 1407
Sep 44 Summary - 3/31/2020 11:42:55 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Sep 44 Summary

A disastrous end to an otherwise productive month! Absolutely the worst 4 turns of the entire campaign, back to back at the end of the month. Losing about 1/3 of the carrier force in one action is a sure recipe for disaster, not to mention the supporting CVEs, BBs and escorts. Kudos to Large_Slow_Target for an outstandingly successful late war spoiling attack! He’s been waiting a long time to pull something like this off!

Was this a war changing event? No. Being as objective as I can, it’s too late to matter strategically. Will it delay the outcome? Yes…probably at least a month or a couple of months at most. Now, should another similar disaster occur, all bets are off, and it will slow operations to a more deliberate approach until the threat is removed. At the end of last month, I thought the air threat was neutered when 1200 aircraft were lost in a single day, and boy, was I wrong! Now, 2600 are lost in a single day! Is there still an air threat? I can’t discount it. However, other than the last week, it was a productive month with Formosa bases seized and operating B-29s, Manila seized, and B-29s flying out of Luzon bases, Vinh and Hanoi taken…the list goes on. Not to mention significant advances, yes advances, throughout China. Was going great until the last week! As for moving forward, the plan really remains the same. The next major landing will be at Kume-jima to begin developing the situation in the Ryukyu chain. That was slated to happen immediately, but will slip at least a week while the Navy sorts out its damage, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing as troops will get some needed prep time. Reducing the Manila garrison and seizing Takao on Formosa operations will continue, and SE Asia will focus on taking Haiphong, and continuing the drive towards Singapore. China will see continued advances, although that will likely slow as the IJA defensive lines are encountered. Naval losses for the month were of course heavy for the Allies from the last four days; the IJN reportedly lost only a BB, CA, CL, 3DD, 3E, 4SS, and 11 MTB, compared to the Allies losing 5CV, 3CVL, 2BB, BC, 4CVE, 12DD, 5DE, and a single PT. Surprisingly, no Allied subs were lost. In the air, just like last month, it was all about that one day in the air - 2953 for Jpn to 1151 Allied for the month’s tallies.

INTEL: I really didn’t expect a massive air response to the Fleet off Japan. I figured it would come during the Okinawa landings - hit the CVs while they are tied to protecting a beach head. But hindsight, supporting B-29 raid took away a similar amount of fighters, so it made perfect sense. I just failed to see it. And the icing on the cake was committing the IJN. Didn’t see that coming either. So, the big question is, “what is left in the tank?”. Can another massive air attack be mounted? The IJN remains a “Fleet in Being”, and can certainly sortie, but the real question is the airpower. I just don’t know. If there is gas in the tank for another massive air attack, I’d throw everything at the Kume-jima landings - the US transports and escorting Navy elements will have limited LBA support, the US Navy will continue to get stronger with time, and its well within range of Japanese air from China and Kyushu. Then again, I’ve been wrong fairly consistently lately.

Strategic Bombing Campaign: A reasonable start to the bombing campaign, only in its infancy. The removal of the CV TFs as a LRCAP/Sweep platform for the foreseeable future isn’t good, and will restrict the B-29s to primarily night missions for the next month. That said, until bases can be secured for B-24s, and land based fighters get to range over Japan, bombing will be limited. The current numbers of B-29s, with their poor service rating, will also limit operations. Regardless of these challenges, I see the Strat Bombing Campaign as the way forward to achieve a Decisive Victory in early ’45, eliminating the need to land troops on the Home Islands.

SUBWAR: Was surprised that no Allied subs were sunk in Sep. Just lucky, as a number were crippled by the still effective Japanese ASW efforts. Few targets remain at sea, although when the IJN sortied, the subs did little - about half a dozen should have been able to sight and engage the IJN but failed to penetrate any screen. Will continue to sortie subs, but don’t see much of a change in results.

West Coast/USA/Rear Areas: Fighter production increases to 980 in Oct with the addition of the improved versions of the British Spitfire and Thunderbolt, and no fighters go out of production. Pilot pools are short for US bomber pilots, and with the USMC squadrons expanding from 18 to 24 planes, they will be short fighter pilots by month’s end. At sea, the only major reinforcements next month will go to the Brits, a CV and a BB.

NOPAC. Quiet and will stay quiet.

CENPAC. Guam was secured without major issues, and the airbase is being expanded by a massive engineer effort. Pagan based recon has been active over the Home Islands, so when the AF is ready in a few weeks, the B-29s will have targets in and around the Tokyo area - at extended range of course.

SOPAC. No sugar coating the fact that the fleet was mauled in this last week of the month. Losing 1/3 of your carrier capacity is hard to sweep under the rug. It’s going to have an impact - the Fleet will be tied closer to LBA for a while. No more roaming off Japan to support the B-29s. However, it really shouldn’t change the immediate plan of securing the Ryukyu Islands in the coming month. I’m still debating Okinawa, but that may be more challenging with the loss of the CVs. The Kume-jima landings will be telling. On Formosa, will look to seize Takao this coming month and advance on Taihoku on its eastern tip, but the B-29s are already basing at Kagi and Taichu.

SWPAC. Taking Manila in the first attack was a major surprise! The remaining 80k defenders still need to be dealt with, and I imagine that will take the rest of the month. After that, the US troops will need a major rest and refit. Luzon airfields are basing B-29 raids, but having the Formosa bases, which are closer to Japan, already make the Luzon AFs somewhat redundant. Engineers are already working to get Manila port up and running, and will use the repair shipyard shortly with a number of the recently damaged warships already enroute.

China. I’m still amazed at the advances in China. To imagine Chungking and Hong Kong under Chinese threat?! Will continue to advance as practical, still trying to assess the new IJA main line of defense. And that is the goal for October, continue to advance as practical.

SE Asia. The Indochina campaign is coming to a conclusion with Hanoi and Vinh being secured, leaving only Haiphong to liberate. Isolated pockets of troops will still need to be dealt with, and that might take most of the month. Even so, I need to start seriously thinking what to do with the majority of the British 14th Army. Options include everything between assisting in liberating Chungking to landings on Korea. The Indian XV Corp continues its drive toward Singapore, and will likely threaten the base by month’s end.





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 3/31/2020 11:44:51 PM >

(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1408
RE: Sep 44 Summary - 4/1/2020 3:19:37 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline 		Ouch. It's not an apples to apples comparison, but I did a landing at Kanoya vs. Ironman Nasty and lost 12 CVEs. I had a CAP of over 2,000 aircraft (all fighters on CVs, CVLs and CVEs were set to different altitudes at 100% CAP and zero range) and by the end of the morning my CAP went to zero, with CVEs and the odd CV getting hit. Then CAP went up to about 1,600 in the afternoon. I took down 3,600 enemy aircraft for a loss of only about 200 (mostly lost on the decks). I have a healthy respect for what the IJ can put into the air near the Home Islands.

On a positive note, the morale of your opponent just went up a few notches. He'll be like the guy in the Cialis commercial looking confident around the office.

Cheers,
CB

_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 1409
RE: Sep 44 Summary - 4/1/2020 5:20:43 AM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

On a positive note, the morale of your opponent just went up a few notches. He'll be like the guy in the Cialis commercial looking confident around the office.

Cheers,
CB


Probably spot on! But.....That's an image I don't need....thanks for that!

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 1410
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