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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/9/2015 2:45:39 AM

rkr1958

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Jan/Feb 1940. The Western Front and Eastern Europe.

1. Though the Germans only got two impulse this turn and had snow in the West for both, they did make the most out the turn by conquering Denmark and Belgium. Now, there's no more buffer between the Wehrmacht and the French and BEF.

2. In Eastern Europe, both Germany and the Soviets are pursuing a buildup of troops on the border. It's like they have a mistrust of each other.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/9/2015 2:46:37 AM

rkr1958

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Jan/Feb 1940. Countries Economic Reports.

Note: In the Japanese builds, the CAV(1) should be CVA(1) (CV air unit, cost 1).

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/9/2015 3:08:50 PM

composer99

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One little trick the Germans can indulge in in Belgium is not attacking Brussels during the surprise impulse, if the Belgians set up a unit there. (If they don't set up a unit, of course, the Germans can't attack Brussels, unless they can paradrop into the city.)

If the Germans seize Antwerp (easy enough if there's a single corps and they can attack from Rotterdam) and the Belgian resource hex, then Brussels would be cut off and unable to receive Allied reinforcement, apart from air units and the Brussels MIL. And it would have meant a 4-hex attack on Brussels later, with only 2 hexes on the wrong side of the river.

Now, a 7 factor defence could be a problem to dislodge with RAF air support, but not insoluble (although you can't control for low die rolls).

But unless Germany takes a pile more land losses I don't think the Brussels debacle will be crippling, so don't feel like the above is a "better" play than what you ultimately did.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/10/2015 4:01:21 AM

rkr1958

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

One little trick the Germans can indulge in in Belgium is not attacking Brussels during the surprise impulse, if the Belgians set up a unit there. (If they don't set up a unit, of course, the Germans can't attack Brussels, unless they can paradrop into the city.)

If the Germans seize Antwerp (easy enough if there's a single corps and they can attack from Rotterdam) and the Belgian resource hex, then Brussels would be cut off and unable to receive Allied reinforcement, apart from air units and the Brussels MIL. And it would have meant a 4-hex attack on Brussels later, with only 2 hexes on the wrong side of the river.

Now, a 7 factor defence could be a problem to dislodge with RAF air support, but not insoluble (although you can't control for low die rolls).

But unless Germany takes a pile more land losses I don't think the Brussels debacle will be crippling, so don't feel like the above is a "better" play than what you ultimately did.

When I was using the 1D10 CRT, I went more by feel (or gut) what was a good or acceptable attack. I've been playing the 2D10 CRT the same but I'm beginning to understand that I need to be much more analytically in my attacks with the 2D10 CRT.

For other reasons I've been wanting to learn Python, so I downloaded (it's free), and installed it on my computer this evening after I go home from work. I played around with it some and was able to write a simple script that implements the assault-plus table from the 2D10 CRT. I will eventually include the assault, blitzkrieg-plus and blitzkrieg tables too, but to get started I wanted to analyze the four attacks from the last axis impulse of last turn. All four of these attacks were conducted on the assault-plus table. Armed with the data I generated, I probably would have skipped the attack on Antwerp, but likely still would have made the one on Belgium. However I did attack Antwerp, and lucky maxed the roll. But pre-roll there was a 5.5% chance that I would lose 3 of the 4 attackers and a 12.5% chance that the attack would fail completely.

After looking at all this data, I conclude that the Germans were fortunate in their results. Not overly so, but still fortunate. While the Japanese attack on Kweilin, China failed to take the city and resulted in the loss of 1 unit, at least they didn't lose 2 or even 3 units.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/10/2015 1:12:57 PM

composer99

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The issue with skipping the Antwerp attack is that Belgium's controlling major power could reinforce it with their own units, making it much harder to take (especially with 2 of three attacking hexes now behind rivers).

(In this, as in most ways the German campaign against France and the Low Countries can go wrong, I speak from bitter personal experience.)

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/10/2015 10:05:30 PM

rkr1958

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

The issue with skipping the Antwerp attack is that Belgium's controlling major power could reinforce it with their own units, making it much harder to take (especially with 2 of three attacking hexes now behind rivers).

(In this, as in most ways the German campaign against France and the Low Countries can go wrong, I speak from bitter personal experience.)

Oh, I see. By taking and occupying Antwerp and also occupying the hex southeast of Brussels you prevent the allies from being able to reinforce Brussels. Also, you now have two stacks of units on the side side of the river with Brussels so you don't suffer that penalty. If you take Brussels first and leave Antwerp to the next phase you have two of the three stacks attacking across the river and you allow the allies the opportunity to reinforce Antwerp. In leaving Brussels to the second impulse after the invasion, I guess the only real threat is from allied ground strikes trying to disorganization units in one or both of those stacks. But, I think that result is better than risking the loss of so many units as I did in my three attacks on the first (invasion) impulse. So you've sold me and I'll be adopting your two impulse conquest of Belgium in the future.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 8:40:28 PM

rkr1958

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Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1 & Allied # 2. Weather.

Initiative.

1. First roll. The axis roll a 2 modified by +2 to a 4. The allies roll a 10. In looking at the weather probabilities the axis see a 100% chance of fine weather in the north monsoon (i.e., southern China). There's also a 50% chance of fine weather in the north temperate (i.e., Western Front). So the axis elect to re-roll for the initiative. Note that the probabilities shown in the graphic below are AFTER the weather roll for the first impulse pair of this turn and are different from those at this point in the game.

2. Second roll. The axis roll a 7 modified by +1 to an 8. The allies roll a 4. The axis chose to go first and are rewarded with fine weather across the entire globe.

Axis #1.

3. German takes a land, Italy who's still neutral a combined and Japan a land.

4. In the air, Germany ground strikes two stacks of French units, Japan strategically bombs Chungking to no effect and ground strikes the lone Chinese garrison holding Nanyang in the north, also to no efffect.

5. The two German ground strikes are direct at a front line French stack intended for land combat and against a second line French stack containing the Georges HQ unit. Both ground strikes are opposed by French fighter units who are in turn opposed by Luftwaffe fighter units. All Luftwaffe bomber units associated with the ground strike on the front line French stack get through and manage to disorganize all three units in the stack. However, Luftwaffe bombers associated with the strike on George's stack are forced back and all the units in his stack remain organized.

6. The German's land combat against the front line French stack is successful. Two of the three units are destroyed and the third is shattered.

7. In China, Japan conducts two land combats. The first is in the north and against the lone garrison in Nanyang, China. The land combat successfully destroys the unit and captures the city. The US appears to be uninterested in all this and does NOT react. The second land combat is against a two division Chinese force holding the city of Ichang in central China. This attack also successfully destroys the defenders and results in the capture of the city. The US, again does NOT react.

Allied #2.

8. The CW and French adjust their defensive position in the West and attempt to blunt the German advance through ground strikes. The RAF hits the German spearhead of 3 units but only manages to disorganize a single, division size, unit. The French strike a second stack of 3 German units and, also, only manage to disorganize a single, division size, unit.

9. In the South China Sea Theater, specifically Malay, the CW disposes of the partisan causing trouble there.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 8:41:46 PM

rkr1958

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Apr/May 1940. The Western Front as it WILL Appear an the END of this Turn.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 8:42:35 PM

rkr1958

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Apr/May 1940. China as it WILL Appear an the END of this Turn.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 8:52:09 PM

rkr1958

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Apr/May 1940. Axis #3 and Allied #5.

Axis #3.

10. The fine weather on the Western Front turns to rain. The Germans take a land, Italy (neutral) a combined and Japan a land.

11. Even in the rain the Germans manage to shatter the lone remaining allied (French) stack of units in Belgium (54,32). All of Belgium is now controlled by the Germans.

12. In China, the Japanese ground strike the 3-2 Chinese Mil holding Kweillin with heavy artillery and TAC bombers. Both strikes are ineffective and the 3-2 Chinese Mil unit once again gets the better of the Japanese. However, not for long. A successful land combat by the Japanese destroys the unit and captures the city. A city that should have fallen last turn but didn't is finally Japanese. Not to be bothered by the war of aggression the Japanese are waging against China, the USA again does NOT react.

Allied #5.

13. RAF heavy bombers hit the cities of Hamburg and Berlin but, in total, only manage to destroy 1 PP.

14. The communist Chinese retake the northern, and unoccupied, Japanese held city of Taiyuan.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 8:58:39 PM

rkr1958

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Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #7 and Allied #10.

Axis #7.

15. The weather seriously deteriorates. There's nothing of consequence to report from the axis impulse.

Allied #10.

16. Nothing of consequence to report from the allied impulse either, except that the turn continues. The end of turn roll was an 8 against a 40% chance of the turn ending.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 9:30:18 PM

rkr1958

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Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #13 and Allied #14.

Axis #13.

17. The axis are seemingly given a gift. The weather turns fine across the globe except for rain in the arctic. Germany and Japan both take a land.

18. Italy declares war on the CW and takes a naval. Even with all three axis powers taking an impulse (i.e., not passing) there's a 70% chance that this will be the last impulse of the turn. So Italy decides to use it's surprise impulse against the CW to go after their convoys in Cape St. Vincent and to attack the RN in the Eastern Med and off the Italian coast.

19. In the Eastern Med, the Italians send out a sizable cruiser force. However, neither side is able to find the other so no naval combat occurs. Not a good start for Italy to the surprise impulse.

20. Off the Italian Coast, the lone RN heavy cruiser on patrol there is found and sunk.

21. And then off Cape St Vincent naval combat between four Italian sub units, RN escorts and convoys takes place over three rounds. The four Italian sub units manage to sink 1 CP and force 3 others to abort. Assuming the turn ends after this impulse (70% chance), that's 4 resources lost to the CW this turn.

22. On the Western Front, the Germans decide to exploit the fair weather to launch a blitz land combat against George's stack, which is now on the front line. But first, the Germans ground strike the stack with what it has left, a single Luftwaffe fighter/bomber unit and a heavy artillery division. The French stack contains an AA division that decides NOT to fire against the Luftwaffe unit. The ground strikes manage to disorganize a French 7-6 armor corps but have no effect on Georges' HQ unit or the French AA division.

23. Prior to the land combat against the Georges' stack, the Germans drop their airborne division. This drop was opposed by the French AA division, which barely missed turning the German transports away. In what the Germans through was to be a Blitz attack turns out to be an assault attack forced by the French. To make matters worse, for the Germans, Georges' successfully lent his HQ support to the defense. The German attack is turned away with the loss of the airborne corps and a 7-2 Mil corps.

24. To make matters worse for the axis, the turn continues with a roll of 10 against the 70% chance of ending.

Allied #14.

25. The CW takes a naval and immediately replaces the 4 CPs loss/aborted in Cape St. Vincent. In that Sea area, the CW declines to initiate combat so the Italian's do. Bad decision, for the Italians. The CW surprises the Italian subs (9 surprise points for the CW). Two of the four Italian sub units are sunk, a third is forced to abort and the fourth is 1/2 aborted. It stays but does not commit to a second round of combat.

26. The RN sorties a strong cruiser force supported by the Ark Royal out of Gibraltar and into the Eastern Med. The ensuring naval battle, while not a disaster for the RN, doesn't go their way. They lone CW CP in that area is sunk and the air wing from the Ark Royal is shot down (pilot killed). Two RN cu risers are also sunk. The Italians see 1 of their cruisers sunk and a second damaged and force to abort. In the end, both sides still have strong naval forces patrolling that area.

27. On the Western Front, the RAF decides to ground strike von Leeb's HQ unit. If successful, this ground strike will cost the Germans 0.4 oil points. Other than that, it has no intended value. The ground strike successfully disorganized von Leeb and a German mech division. A 5-5 mot corps in the stack remains organized.

28. In China, the communist take the northern Chinese city of Kaifeng from the Japanese in a moderately risky attack (12:3 or +9).

29. The end of turn roll is a 4, against a probability of 80%, so this turn does end.

30. The rolls for partisans produce NO partisan, anywhere.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 9:47:00 PM

rkr1958

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Mar/Apr 1940. Kaifeng, China. communist Chinese Land Combat.

This attack turned out to be bolder for the communist than I meant it to be. The Japanese garrison in Kaifeng was railed and as a result was disorganized. In the previous weather impulse pair it was also out of supply because of the poor weather. Since disorganized this meant it had a strength of 1. So when the allies got this impulse, the communist decided to make an "automatic" attack against the 1 strength defender. However, in their zeal to move in place and attack, they didn't take notice of the clearing, fine weather which allowed supplies to start following back to the defender. It now defended at its original strength of 3. Committed the communist decided to go ahead with the attack. However it was only after the attack that they consulted with Soviet military analysts on the odds. While there was a 94% chance that the lone defender would be destroyed, there was a 24% chance that BOTH attacking communist corps would be also in which case this attack would fail unless the allies moved first next turn. The odds of losing 1 unit was 28% and no units was 48%. Fortunately the communist rolled well and took the city without loss.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 9:50:30 PM

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Mar/Apr 1940. Land Combat. France[54,31].

And here's another attack that I screwed up. Because the Germans had the French out numbered 2 to 1 in armor units I thought that the Germans would be able to carry out this attack on the Blitzkrieg table. However, I didn't think about that the 2-3 AA division, because of its number in red, also counted as an armor unit. And to make my miscalculation worse, I didn't take into account that Georges' could lend his HQ support to the the defense.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 9:51:38 PM

rkr1958

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Mar/Apr 1940. Units Destroyed and the Repair Pool.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 9:54:18 PM

rkr1958

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Mar/Apr 1940. The Western Front.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 9:56:37 PM

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Mar/Apr 1940. Italy Supported by Germany Positioned to Invade Greece.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 9:57:25 PM

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Mar/Apr 1940. The Eastern Med.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 9:59:07 PM

rkr1958

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Mar/Apr 1940. Cape St. Vincent. Gibraltar. Western Med.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 10:00:02 PM

rkr1958

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Mar/Apr 1940. Eastern Europe.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 10:01:16 PM

rkr1958

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The South China Sea Theater of Operation.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 10:02:52 PM

rkr1958

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Mar/Apr 1940. China.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 10:04:25 PM

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Mar/Apr 1940. Manchuria.

Stalin is watching events in Northern China very carefully.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 10:07:25 PM

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Mar/Apr 1940. Carrier Planes and Pilots.

This graphic is a digression. But I what to say that I'm really enjoy playing with pilots and carrier planes. This cap was taken from one of the Japanese rebase phases this turn to show that I finally got IJN carriers up to near capacity. Only the Akagi is one plane (factor) short.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 10:25:39 PM

rkr1958

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Mar/Apr 1940. Country Economic Reports.

1. Japanese factories are finally getting more of the raw resources they need and are operating at 89% max capacity.

2. Raw resources to Germany factories were cut back a bit in order to build up the German oil stockpile. This reduction saw German production cut from max to 92% capacity. The net result was that Germany was able to save 2 additional oil points at the expense of 1 lost build point.

3. Italian production is pitiful and is only working at 36% of maximum capacity. Italy, who now is at war, is looking to Germany for additional raw resources to feed their factories.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 10:28:36 PM

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Mar/Apr. US Entry (Politics).

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 10:35:37 PM

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Mar/Apr 1940. US Entry Level and Option Picks.

The US picked, in the following order, this turn:

13. Embargo on strategic materials. NO tension increase.

15. Resources to western Allies. NO tension increase.

7. Occupy Greenland and Iceland. NO increase in tension.

9. Resources to China. NO tension increase. Even so that there wasn't any increase in tension, the program wouldn't let me choose any more options after this one.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/11/2015 10:43:13 PM

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May/June 1940. Country Trade Reports.

Three new, temporary and not mandatory trade agreements were entered into:

1. Germany to Italy. 2 non-oil resources.

2. USA to China. 1 non-oil resource.

3. USA to CW. 3 oil resources. While neutral, the USA (as any other country) can save a maximum of 1 oil point per turn. However, US entry option 15, resources to western Allies, is a way for the USA to get around that. By entering into an agreement with the CW, they can send oil overland to Canada, which can then be saved (i.e., stockpiled) there. This stockpile, for example, can then be used, once the US enters the war, to send oil back to the US (if needed), send resources to the USSR or additional resources to the CW (if needed).

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/13/2015 2:56:20 PM

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As I recall, you posted in another thread about how the bad attack into France had a bug; hopefully you will get that resolved before proceeding.

Now, in the end your die roll was a 6, so there's not much to be done there. But there were some things you could have done to improve your odds.

First, and most importantly, if you're only launching one attack in a turn, and it's going to be a blitz, you should stack as much armour/mech into the attacking hexes as you can, to maximize your blitz bonus modifiers (attacking from 2 hexes, you can maximally get +4.5 blitz mods with 4 corps and 1 arm/mech div; the other div should be mot - see below).

Second, of course, is to make sure one of the attacking units is a motorized division, for loss taking. I see from the screenshot of the attack that there were no divisions participating - am I to take it that those two hexes were the ones with disorganised division units following the Allied groundstrikes? In that case would it not have been better to attack a hex where you could include at least 1 division?

Third, when you have multiple legitimate targets, don't attack the toughest hex if there is an easier target, unless you absolutely have to. I can't speak to whether the combat factors in the hex northwest of the one you ultimately attacked were better or worse, but unless it had a MECH and an AT/AA gun, the modifiers would have been more favourable, and 2 ARM would have been enough to pick the table. With the French ARM disorganised it's not like you had to worry about a blitz counter-attack this impulse.

(Fourth, roll better.

)

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/13/2015 9:42:39 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

As I recall, you posted in another thread about how the bad attack into France had a bug; hopefully you will get that resolved before proceeding.

Now, in the end your die roll was a 6, so there's not much to be done there. But there were some things you could have done to improve your odds.

First, and most importantly, if you're only launching one attack in a turn, and it's going to be a blitz, you should stack as much armour/mech into the attacking hexes as you can, to maximize your blitz bonus modifiers (attacking from 2 hexes, you can maximally get +4.5 blitz mods with 4 corps and 1 arm/mech div; the other div should be mot - see below).

Second, of course, is to make sure one of the attacking units is a motorized division, for loss taking. I see from the screenshot of the attack that there were no divisions participating - am I to take it that those two hexes were the ones with disorganised division units following the Allied groundstrikes? In that case would it not have been better to attack a hex where you could include at least 1 division?

Third, when you have multiple legitimate targets, don't attack the toughest hex if there is an easier target, unless you absolutely have to. I can't speak to whether the combat factors in the hex northwest of the one you ultimately attacked were better or worse, but unless it had a MECH and an AT/AA gun, the modifiers would have been more favourable, and 2 ARM would have been enough to pick the table. With the French ARM disorganised it's not like you had to worry about a blitz counter-attack this impulse.

(Fourth, roll better. )

Thanks. Regarding second, I'm still learning. In the turn I just finished the Germans lost an armor division because of a Blitz attack. At least it wasn't a corps, but the 1-5 mot division would have been much better. I'm learning ... but still have a way to go. Now regarding four, I don't think the Germans learning this one very well for the coming turn that I'm to post ...