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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 12:31:22 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Western Front. (Situation at End of Turn).

For this turn I'm going to post screen caps, with some comments, of relevant theaters showing the situations there at the end of this turn. I will then detail in a number of subsequent screen caps how I got there.

Needless to say for the Western Front and Germany, that Germany didn't gain nearly as much ground as it should have during this turn. In fact, the Fuehrer had the German die roller shot on the grounds that only a French or British spy could roll so consistently bad.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 12:37:09 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Italy and Germany Invades Greece.

It's a sordid tale of betrayal, of which the German die roll was obviously a part of, that led to such miserable gains in Greece during this turn.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 12:40:05 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Eastern Europe.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 12:45:51 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. China.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 2:01:43 AM

rkr1958

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May/Jun 1940. Allied #1 / Axis #2 Impulse Pair.

Initiative.

1. The Germans really want to move first for two major reasons. The first is that the weather is likely to be fine for most of this turn and they want to maximize the number of impulse they have to take it to France. Secondly, they fear if the allies get the initiative then the French and British could use ground strikes to break up and disrupt German units before the Germans can start their offensive.

2. First roll. The axis roll a 5, modified by 1, to a 6. The allies roll an 8. Of course, the axis choose to re-roll.

3. Second roll. The axis roll a 6, unmodified. The allies roll a 10. Not surprisingly, the allies elect to move first. The Fuhrer is furious at the German die roller. Two chances to win the initiative and he missed both. The Fuhrer in a fit of rage orders his staff to figure out what the odds were. Given that the allies win ties, the odds that Germany would win the first roll given that they had a +1 modifier was 55%. After losing the first roll, the odds that the would win the second roll lowered to 45%. Because of the +1 modifier, if the axis had won the first roll, the allies could NOT have elected to re-rolled. So, Germany would have gone first if the axis had won either roll. The chance of losing both rolls was slightly less than 25%. So, the axis (and Germany) had a 3 out of 4 chance of moving first. They missed that, the initiative went to the allies and the Fuhrer went on a rant. In his days as a runner in the trenches of WWI, he never once missed a die roll. O.K., no more die roll parodies.

Allied #4.

4. Weather is fine across the globe except for a band of rain around the equator and in the North Monsoon weather zone.

5. CW takes a naval, France a land, China a land, USSR (neutral) combined and the USA (neutral) combined.

6. The RAF and French air forces use all their air missions to ground strike three stacks of German units. A French heavy artillery division strikes a fourth stack. Luftwaffe fighters are scrambled and oppose the three bomber ground strike missions.

7. The first target is a German stack in Antwerp that contains von Leeb's HQ unit, a 5-5 motorized corps and a 2-6 mech division. In air to air combat, Luftwaffe fighters out numbered RAF fighter units 2:1. However, neither side shots down or aborts any enemy air unit. In the first air to air combat round, the lone RAF TAC bomber unit is clear through. However, his ground strike is less than stellar. Only the 2-6 mech division is disorganized.

8. The second RAF ground strike is against a German stack in Brussels that contains Rundstedt's HQ unit, 7-4 infantry corps, 1-4 engineering division and 2 German TACs. This strike is carried out by 2 RAF bomber units escorted by an RAF fighter unit. Two Luftwaffe fighter units oppose the strike. One of the two RAF bomber units is shot down and the pilot is killed. The second RAF bomber unit makes it through to attack the target. German AA fire reduces the bomber effectiveness by 2 and the ground strike had no effect.

9. Thus ends the RAF portion of the ground strikes which only managed to disorganize a single, 2-6 mech division out of 8 units struck. Now for the French.

10. Two French fighter bomber units and one sea plane unit escorted by a French fighter unit attack a stack of German units in Belgium that contain a 9-4 infantry corps, 7-5 armor corps and a 4-2 artillery division. This strike is again opposed by two Luftwaffe fighter units. The air to air portion of the combat sees one French fighter bomber and the sea plane air unit shot down. The Luftwaffe lose a Bf-109 fighter unit. The end result was that one lone French fighter bomber unit was clear through. However, Germany AA fire reduce the effectiveness of this strike to zero. So no units were disorganized.

11. The last of the four ground strikes was a French artillery attack on a stack that contained a German 8-5 armor corps and a 3-3 artillery division. The artillery fire was ineffective and no units were disorganized.

12. This covers the significant action of the first allied impulse.

13. And taking a deep sign of relief, the Germans feel that they dodge a bullet and hope to being their offensive that will inflict mortal damage on the French army this turn.

Axis #2.

14. The Germans take a land, the Italians a naval and the Japanese a land. The Germans play an O-Chit with Rundstedt to double the factors of 8 units in land combat. Before getting to the German land combats, I need to mention the Italians and Japanese.

15. The Italians, in preparation of an invasion of Greece, move a German 6-4 corps, 6-3 corps and 1-3 SS division out to sea from the port of Trieste to the Italian coast. Both the Germans and Italians are ready to invade Greece next impulse, whether permitting. Note that the German force at sea is not an amphibious invasion force (only the 1-3 division could invade), but will embark in Albania to join the Italians in their land campaign against Greece.

16. The Japanese make one land combat in China (covered in the next post).

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 2:15:37 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Axis #2. Land Combat. Chengchow, China.

17. The Japanese attack Chengchow, China in a 24:5 land combat attack. The Chinese choose assault, the Japanese produce an average roll, destroy both Nationalist Chinese defending units and take the city with the loss of a motorized division.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 2:24:29 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Axis #2. The Western Front. Land Combat. France [54,31].

18. Aided by double factors from Rundstedt and an O-chit and from successful Luftwaffe ground strikes, the Germans attack two stacks of French units. The first attack is a decent odds Blitzkrieg attack against a French 7-6 armor corps, 3-5 cavalry corps and a 2-3 AA division. The Germans roll a 7, which modifies to a 22, which is one less than the max of 23. The result is that only 1 of the 3 French units are destroyed (versus 2) and the remaining two are shatter. Though the attack takes the hex without any losses or disorganization for the Germans the modified roll of 22 (or unmodified roll of 7) is a bit disappointing. Hopefully the attack to take the French city of Lille will go better.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 2:30:55 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Axis #2. Land Combat. Lille, France.

19. Nope. The Germans roll a 5, modified to an 18. The French lose one unit and keep the city. All attackers are disorganized.

20. The two German land combat rolls were in stark contrast to the Luftwaffe ground strikes on these two hexes. The ground strikes manage to disorganize all six French units in the two hexes. Unfortunately, the Germany army was unable to exploit these successful ground strikes even with an O-chit to double their combat factors.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 2:33:55 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Axis #2. Reorg.

21. Rundstedt is able to reorganize 8 of the 9 disorganized German ground units.

22. Maybe the Germans can still salvage something out of their spring offensive.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 2:48:09 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Allied #3 & Axis #4 Impulse Pair.

Weather.

23. It's wonderful. Well, it's wonderful if your axis and would have got to move first. It's frustrating if your the axis and have to move second.

Allied.

24. With the exception of a German seaplane unit, both the Luftwaffe and French air forces have been used up this turn. However, the RAF still have two bomber units with TAC factors left (i.e., organized). They each ground strike a stack of German units.

25. The first ground strike is against a stack that contains a German 7-4 infantry corps, 8-4 infantry corps and a 3-3 artillery division. The ground strike manages to disorganize the 8-4 corps.

26. The second ground strike is against a stack that contains an 8-6 mech corps and a 7-5 armor corps. The strike is ineffective and both units remain organized.

Axis.

27. German, Italy and Japan take land options.

28. Italy and German declare war on Greece. The USA does react to this and the CW aligns Greece.

29. Italy has one air mission which is uses to successfully ground strike and disorganize a Greek 4-4 mountain corps. Italian units from the west and Bulgarian units from the east move into Italy. German units disembark in Albania. The axis are in position to attack the Greek 4-4 mountain corps next impulse. They're also in position to take the mountain port city of Patras in Peloponnesos.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 3:00:17 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Japan.

30. Though neutral, USA production includes trade to the CW (3 oil) and China (1 non-oil). While Japan is in no position to do anything about the USA trade to Great Britain, they can do something about US aid to China. Japan elects to close the Burma road thus blocking the flow of the USA trade to China. The USA has no reaction to this.

31. In northern China, the Japanese successfully retake the communist held city of Kaifeng and destroys a communist 3-5 cavalry unit.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 3:06:21 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Axis #3. The Western Front. Land Combat. France [53,30].

32. Well, the Germans roll a 3 and another decent odds Blitzkrieg attack is frustrated. Really, there's not much more to say about the attack.

Reorg.

33. A German Ju-52 air unit reorganizes a 7-5 armor corp, von Bock reorganizes 3 more ground units and von Leeb 2 more. Maybe, just maybe something of the German offensive in France can be salvage this turn.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 3:11:51 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Allied #5 & Axis #7 Impulse Pulse. Weather.

34. You got to be kidding me!!! A weather roll of 1. If I didn't know better I'd say the German roller made that roll. Well, this weather pretty much shuts down combat operations across the globe this impulse pair.

35. Really, there's nothing of consequence to report this pulse pair. Well, with the exception that the weather put a halt to axis ground movement in the mountains of Greece. And, for the axis to capture the undefended port city of Patras in the Peloponnesos would require that they disorganize the captors (i.e., the unit(s) who would move across the straights to capture the city). The axis decide to wait until their next impulse to capture the city and resume their offensive in Greece when the weather (hopefully) clears.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 3:19:33 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Allied # 9 & Axis #10 Impulse Pair.

36. Well maybe things are looking up after all for the axis. The weather changes to fine across the globe. All German land units in France are organized and ready to make one more, hopefully, good attack on the French lines. The Italians and Germans in Greece are ready to renew their invasion. But first the allies have to take their move.

37. The allied players take notice of all this and of the end of turn probabilities of 30/40/50%. That is, 50% if all the allies pass, 40% if all but one pass and 30% if two or more don't. The allied players are all tempted to pass, but the CW really has some business that it needs to take care of. So, in a compromise, all allies players but the CW pass. This means that the end of turn chance is 40%.

38. Well, you've probably guessed it. The turn ends with a roll of 3. Well played by the allies.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 3:22:36 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. US Entry Options.

39. The USA choose entry option 16, Gift of destroyers to the CW. What they're really focused on is gear up production. This reduces and entry level of 22 and tension level of 11 in both pools. They're close now, but at best 2 turns away and at worse maybe 3.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 3:23:23 AM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Country Economic Reports.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 3:26:43 AM

rkr1958

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July/August 1940. Country Trade Reports.

40. Because of the closing of the Burma road, the US cancelled its trade agreement with China.

41. The US will send the Philippine non-oil resource intended for China to the US to replace one of its oil resources currently being used for production. This oil resource will then be added to the three currently being sent to the CW and stored in Canada. So the USA modified its trade agreement with the CW from sending 3 to sending 4 oil resources.

42. Note that the German trade agreement with Italy is unchanged from last turn.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 12:31:11 PM

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I like the economic reports, rkr.
After some recent comments by others about the axis suffering the most from the oil rule, I started to wonder how much oil the CW and USA really should be saving and the economic reports make it easier to determine that.

The period I am most interested in, is when the USA and USSR are both in the war.
I want to know if the allies can keep their max production, aid Russia AND save enough oil for fuel.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 2:17:20 PM

composer99

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What a turn!

If the dice cooperate in July/August, the Axis should be able to clear up France. Greece will be trickier what with the mountains, but they should both be cleared up this summer/fall unless the Germans remain snake bitten and the Allies can keep ending the turn.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 10:07:14 PM

rkr1958

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TeaLeaf

I like the economic reports, rkr.
After some recent comments by others about the axis suffering the most from the oil rule, I started to wonder how much oil the CW and USA really should be saving and the economic reports make it easier to determine that.

The period I am most interested in, is when the USA and USSR are both in the war.
I want to know if the allies can keep their max production, aid Russia AND save enough oil for fuel.

Thanks. I find that the economic reports help me gauge production versus saving oil. For example, this turn German had to back off production and save an additional 3 oil points. However, the loss of the 3 oil points from production cost the Germans only 2 BP's because of the 0.75 multiplier and rounding.

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

What a turn!

If the dice cooperate in July/August, the Axis should be able to clear up France. Greece will be trickier what with the mountains, but they should both be cleared up this summer/fall unless the Germans remain snake bitten and the Allies can keep ending the turn.

I haven't played the turn yet but I've determined the initiative. The axis lost another two rolls in a row. Since the allies moved first last turn, the axis would win ties. This time the chance of the axis losing both rolls and not moving first was 16%, or about 1 out of 6 (or 5 out of 6 they'd win one of the two rolls). That's four initiative rolls in a row that the axis have lost! So prior to the rolls, the odds of losing these four rolls in a row were about 1 in 24 (or about 4%).

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 10:38:56 PM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Destroyed and Repair Pools.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 10:39:59 PM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. Scrapped Pool. All Units Scrapped to Date.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/14/2015 10:41:04 PM

rkr1958

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May/June 1940. 6 Month (3 turns) Production Queue.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/15/2015 1:39:43 PM

Centuur

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

quote:

ORIGINAL: TeaLeaf

I like the economic reports, rkr.
After some recent comments by others about the axis suffering the most from the oil rule, I started to wonder how much oil the CW and USA really should be saving and the economic reports make it easier to determine that.

The period I am most interested in, is when the USA and USSR are both in the war.
I want to know if the allies can keep their max production, aid Russia AND save enough oil for fuel.

Thanks. I find that the economic reports help me gauge production versus saving oil. For example, this turn German had to back off production and save an additional 3 oil points. However, the loss of the 3 oil points from production cost the Germans only 2 BP's because of the 0.75 multiplier and rounding.

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

What a turn!

If the dice cooperate in July/August, the Axis should be able to clear up France. Greece will be trickier what with the mountains, but they should both be cleared up this summer/fall unless the Germans remain snake bitten and the Allies can keep ending the turn.

I haven't played the turn yet but I've determined the initiative. The axis lost another two rolls in a row. Since the allies moved first last turn, the axis would win ties. This time the chance of the axis losing both rolls and not moving first was 16%, or about 1 out of 6 (or 5 out of 6 they'd win one of the two rolls). That's four initiative rolls in a row that the axis have lost! So prior to the rolls, the odds of losing these four rolls in a row were about 1 in 24 (or about 4%).

Initiative isn't that important. Sure, it is a little better to move first, but if the other side wins initiative, let them decide if they like to move first. Every reroll deminishes the chances for the Axis to be able to make that decision.

If it is a winter turn, why not let the Allies go first in early war even if the Axis did win the initiative? If in a summer turn in 1940, the Allies win the initiative: let them go first if they want to. You might gain an initiative modifier back if you do so...

What's more shocking for the Axis is the way the dice ended up during land combat. You made reasonable attacks and you've got nothing in return... That's "ouch". Losing the initiative is a minor inconvenience compared to this...

< Message edited by Centuur -- 4/15/2015 2:47:58 PM >

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/15/2015 5:28:10 PM

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I quite agree with Centuur - Initiative is good to have when you badly need it, like if you end previous turn and want to move first the next turn, in Russia or so.
Or other situations offering an exploitable situation. At worst to have some meager chances to have the odd, extra impulse in a summer turn.

The low rolls in France are something I tend to dread - simply because they're game ruiners in my eyes. If France lives through or Germany is too weakened / slowed down, it's pratically game over already unless you want what people seems to call "Sitzkrieg".
That's one of the reason for which me and my friend sort of ditched Axis Empires. IF during the campaign of France for "the attack" you roll 6 (on a dice of 6), you're screwed and it turns into a WW1 environment.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/16/2015 2:14:26 AM

rkr1958

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Initiative isn't that important. Sure, it is a little better to move first, but if the other side wins initiative, let them decide if they like to move first. Every reroll deminishes the chances for the Axis to be able to make that decision.

If it is a winter turn, why not let the Allies go first in early war even if the Axis did win the initiative? If in a summer turn in 1940, the Allies win the initiative: let them go first if they want to. You might gain an initiative modifier back if you do so...

What's more shocking for the Axis is the way the dice ended up during land combat. You made reasonable attacks and you've got nothing in return... That's "ouch". Losing the initiative is a minor inconvenience compared to this...

I certainly understand during poor weather that even not going first could be best.

My concern, as the German player, with the upcoming turn was the risk of seeming "my" spearheads disorganized by allied ground strikes even before I started my turn. Did I over react, as the German player, to that risk by wanting the initiative?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cohen

I quite agree with Centuur - Initiative is good to have when you badly need it, like if you end previous turn and want to move first the next turn, in Russia or so.
Or other situations offering an exploitable situation. At worst to have some meager chances to have the odd, extra impulse in a summer turn.

The low rolls in France are something I tend to dread - simply because they're game ruiners in my eyes. If France lives through or Germany is too weakened / slowed down, it's pratically game over already unless you want what people seems to call "Sitzkrieg".
That's one of the reason for which me and my friend sort of ditched Axis Empires. IF during the campaign of France for "the attack" you roll 6 (on a dice of 6), you're screwed and it turns into a WW1 environment.

The low rolls by the Germans are definitively giving me, as the CW player, something to think about. Specifically, does the CW go all in, or almost all in, in France to try to stop the Germans from taking France this year? Or, is that even possible? I have to tell you that I'm having a blast managing all sides and all their options. This game plays remarkably well solitaire and is a heck of a lot of fun. Though playing against a worthy AIO would be fun too. Maybe in a few years?

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/16/2015 2:28:19 AM

rkr1958

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Jul/Aug 1940. Initiative.

1. The German player wants the initiative to move first this turn very badly. Whether or not he should want it that badly or not I guess is debatable. The German player is worried that if the allies move first then a series of successful ground strikes by them could disorganize units in their front stacks, or even disorganize HQ units and, in effect, throw one or more monkey wrenches into their offensive plans. So in the frame of mind the roll(s) for the initiative are made. Since the allies moved last last turn, the axis would win ties. And since the axis have a +1 modified then they get the initiative if they win the first, or if necessary, second roll.

2. First Roll. The axis roll a 7, which is modified by +1, to an 8. The allies beat them with a 10. Not again!

3. Second Roll. The axis roll a 5, which is not modified. The allies, again, beat the axis with a roll of 10. The allied player rolled two 10's in a row! It's hard to beat that. The allies, delighting too much in the frustration of the German player, choose to move first. By the way, this is the 4th initiative roll in a row that the German player has lost.

Jul/Aug 1940. Allied #1.

4. Except for a band of rain across the equator in the North Monsoon weather zone, the weather is fine worldwide.

5. As I've gained experience in this game I've grow to try to avoid combined actions for a nation at war unless I just have to. I feel that this is one of those times that one should, so the CW takes a combined. France and China take a land. And the USSR and USA, both of which are still neutral, take a combined.

6. The RAF and French airforces throw everything they have available on the Western Front into Ground strikes against lead German stacks and HQ units.

7. 6 of 7 available Luftwaffe fighter units scramble to meet this threat. A massive air battle in the skies over France and Belgium ensues.

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/16/2015 2:35:09 AM

rkr1958

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Jul/Aug 1940. Allied #1. RAF and French Air Force Ground Strikes.

8. Luftwaffe fighters backed by AA divisions do well to neutralize the allied ground strikes. Only one German unit out of 16 at risk was disorganized. The RAF lost two bomber units along with their pilots and the Germans lost two fighter units (pilots survived).

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RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/16/2015 2:38:59 AM

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Jul/Aug 1940. Allied #1. Greece.

9. The reason for CW taking a combined was to get CW grounds units into Greece, which they did. Also, a Greek corps is railed to defend the port of Patras and one of two gateways into the Peloponnesos.

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)

Post #: 239

RE: Historical Global War AAR #2 - 4/16/2015 2:50:11 AM

rkr1958

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Joined: 5/21/2009
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Jul/Aug 1940. Axis #2. Ground Strikes.

10. With the RAF and French air forces used up, Luftwaffe bombers ground strike targets with impunity except for French AA fire. The Germans ground strike two French stacks that will be the targets of land combat. The Luftwaffe achieve respectable results disorganizing 3 of the 5 French units at risk.

11. The Italians ground strike the Greek mountain corps but the ground strike is ineffective.