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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/23/2015 1:56:06 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr


quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

Thank you, Bill.

quote:

wdolson wrote: This was done in part to overcome the 20/20 hindsight effect. Any human player who knows any of the history knows a lot more than that side
knew at any point during the war. An AI that is as cautious as the Japanese actually were can be more easily foiled by an Allied player who knows what to expect
next.

Fair enough. Better learning…My problem would be to balance the Japanese reaction to the more aggressive US behavior. How fast and with how much. And in what way
would this have influenced on the other areas?

quote:

wdolson wrote: If planes didn't fly it could be due to many things such as poor morale, poor leadership, poor search coverage, no warning (such as given by
radar), damage to the airbase, and probably some reasons I'm not thinking of.

It couldn’t be any of those as they suddenly went inoperative of sort. Not available for operations - maintenance or damage, I don’t remember exactly. Except maybe
damage to the airbase. I’m not sure if I have registered any air assaults on Namlea. Thinking about it I might have. But the planes there weren’t operational
before that, either.

That said, there were 0 fuel and, if I remember correctly, about 800 supply points. Would that be enough for air operations?

Fred



The planes will burn the supply to 0 before they stop flying so it was not that.

What is the airfield level? Planes flying any type of assault mission need lvl 2 or better. LVL 1 only works for search/CAP.

Leandros, your comment that the aircraft went inoperative is a clue. This can happen when the aircraft themselves become "fatigued" from constant and long-ranged operations. Click on the "Planes" text at the bottom of the air unit screen to see the current fatigue level of a unit's aircraft. Anything over 30 means it might be taken off-line for immediate maintenance. Aircraft like B-17s that fly long range missions need a lot of maintenance.

Maintenance turnaround also depends on having enough Air Support squads to handle the number of aircraft and their state of fatigue/morale. Operating with too few AS squads in a small, malaria infested base without rest will make them ineffective in just a few turns.

Another possibility is that the aircraft were damaged on landing. This can happen if there are a lot of craters in the runway from bombing or bombardment, and because you did not get combat reports you would not have been aware this happened unless you checked the base repair status each turn. Along with damage, very poor weather can damage a lot of aircraft. When this happens the Operations Report will have a line about the aircraft being "damaged on landing".

It will take a while to develop your eye for detail to check each turn. It's all part of the learning curve! Even the most experienced players frequently miss something each turn because they need to keep track of huge amounts of detail to maximize their chances.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 91
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/23/2015 3:32:43 PM   
Leandros


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

The planes will burn the supply to 0 before they stop flying so it was not that.

What is the airfield level? Planes flying any type of assault mission need lvl 2 or better. LVL 1 only works for search/CAP.

It's not that, either. They were simply not available for missioning - 0! Every type. No transfers.

We don't use more time on this. I shall check around more thoroughly if I experience something similar. Thank you!

Fred


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 92
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/25/2015 9:34:56 AM   
Leandros


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

It will take a while to develop your eye for detail to check each turn. It's all part of the learning curve! Even the most experienced players frequently miss
something each turn because they need to keep track of huge amounts of detail to maximize their chances.


Hi, BBF - thank you! I'm not too concerned about the problems so far, learning something new every day.....The Japanese are worse. Real pain in the a** the last
couple of days........More on that.

Fred

_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 93
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/25/2015 11:02:23 AM   
Leandros


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February 1st, 1942.

1. The last four days have seen some confused fighting in the DEI and PI. The enemy has not pushed further south towards the oil-rich areas of DEI but for now seems content to hold on to the Western coast of Borneo. Only the last two days has he started the invasion of Tarakan after the usual feelers of air reconnaissance and occasional bombing attacks. Even some days after the fall of Singapore there are no signs of him crossing over to the Sumatra side of the Strait. He has started bombings and some naval intrusions in Sumatra and Java ports, though. The Java bombers are mainly flying from Kuching, Borneo.

There is an impression of frustration in the enemy with the many resistance pockets in his back – Bataan and still four in different parts of Mindanao and the many independent garrisons in the Visayas. The withdrawn Menado garrison is still holding up in Sibate on the Southern side of the Menado Peninsula where it has been supplied by PBY’s and submarines.

His first invading attempt on Ambon was thwarted even if he, quite cleverly, was able to achieve a foothold on Namlea. This was unfortunate as a good air base was under development there. This force has, however, been more or less cut off by our naval forces and a Marine company is being inserted in its back. A lengthy affair with the few PBY’s and transport aircraft available.

There has, at times, been four or five enemy TF’s running about north and west of Ambon and Namlea. The last development seems to be a concentration against Kendari. His initial landings there was also rejected, he is stuck on an island on the outside with a small force only. A 2-CA TF of ours is now guarding the approach to Kendari and other US units are coming up in the enemy rear area.

The enemy has lost 3 DD’s, several PB’s and many Marus in their recent invasion attempts. This has been possible because his CV force has left the area completely, it has withdrawn towards NE. It has been claimed that CV Akagi is sunk by DD torpedo and Shokaku damaged by gunfire. This allegedly happened in a nightly surprise attack by DD’s Smith and Preston, near Ambon a couple of nights ago. The two DD’s were able to approach the enemy as close a 2.000 yards before they were detected. CV Akagi has been advertised as sunk.

SBD’s (ex-Enterprise and Lexington) and 139’s flying out of Kendari have also claimed many hits on Marus approaching Kendari. However, the statistics are still very much in the enemy’s favor.

2. Saumlaki has been much reinforced with Base Forces and an under-manned Marines Para Battalion. More support units are poured in to have an operational air base there as soon as possible.

3. Koepang is being reinforced by a US infantry regiment and a coast artillery unit.

4. CV Lexington is just south of Torres Strait and Saratoga is two days behind her. Langley+ is soon in Ambon with a considerable number of new P-40’s. A squadron from the same shipment has been flown up to Darwin.

5. Our 6 C-47’s are now down to 3.

6. As more and more troops are coming into the frontline more work is obviously needed to keep track of supplies and replenishment. Luckily, there is still a lot in Australia and as much as possible oil and fuel is taken out of the DEI.

7. Little more reinforcements are available from the US at the moment. The “political” situation seems to block it.

8. The Australians are keeping up their Wirraway-attacks on Lae. Tulagi has been captured and a large transport TF has been reported in the The Solomons Sea, heading west.

9. There is enemy submarine activity on the Australian east coast, south of the Torres Strait. A couple of freighters have been sunk. The Dutch submarines are also quite active, with some good results. S-39 has been scuttled in port of Butuan. It was too damaged to get away when the Japanese took the city.

10. Ambon airfield seems to have been infested by the same disease as Namlea in that only a few planes are operational at the same time. I hope to get more air support units in there shortly. If only the enemy could switch to the Malayan Barrier and leave us alone to build up our forces in peace and quiet.……

11. An enemy CV-TF is reported on a westerly course south of Bandjermasin. No planes onboard, except 5 auxiliaries….?

12. Our naval forces have been instilled the importance of this coming night, no withdrawals, to totally destroy the next Kendari invasion attempt as they nearly did with the first. A job well done by the CA’s Salt Lake City and San Diego, assisted by 2 DD’s.

Fred


< Message edited by Leandros -- 4/25/2015 12:10:07 PM >


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to Leandros)
Post #: 94
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/25/2015 11:06:44 AM   
Leandros


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duplicate!

Fred

< Message edited by Leandros -- 4/25/2015 12:07:56 PM >


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to Leandros)
Post #: 95
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/25/2015 1:00:18 PM   
Mike McCreery


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FYI,

Most ships that get torpedoed are reported sunk. That does not mean that they are.

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Post #: 96
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/25/2015 2:40:05 PM   
Leandros


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

FYI,

Most ships that get torpedoed are reported sunk. That does not mean that they are.

Thank you - I've understood that......that's why I often use the words "alleged", "reported" and "claimed"...

Fred




_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 97
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/28/2015 9:18:06 AM   
Leandros


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Starting anew!

I have now reached February 10th 1942 and feel it’s time to break off this first AAR series to install the updated WITP AE that has been waiting impatiently in my drawer for a couple of weeks and start a new one based on my Rookie experiences and, not the least, all the valuable inputs given by the helpful members here.

The basic pre-requisites for this next AAR are the same as those stated in my first postings:

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3840708&mpage=1&key=

Before I start a new one I’d like to share some of my experiences in my first venture into the world of WITP. The opponent (the AI) is much more aggressive, and acts considerably faster to changed conditions, than in the RL. This complicates my “test” where the main issue is to exploit the shortest supply route between Australia and the PI, the Moluccans. To get this right would, I suppose, necessitate an opponent that played like the RL up to the point where my intentions were firmly established and, after that, with a reaction time that mirrored the main Japanese aims and RL. A good example is the delayed reinforcing of the Bataan siege force and occupation of the rest of the PI.

I suppose the only way to resolve this would be with an opponent playing along those rules or playing both sides myself. Also, a considerable number of sea transports would have to be changed - all those US-PI ships which were called back, delayed or diverted at the outbreak of war. If this can be done in the Editor I do not know. That shall come later.

An example of this is the Pensacola convoy. It arrived in Brisbane on December 22nd but could possibly have been there a week earlier due to being kept in limbo in the pacific for a period, awaiting confirmation to proceed directly to Australia. This convoy I found so crucial in investigating “my” scenario that without it I don’t think I would have considered it at all.

I’ll explain: Onboard were three complete artillery regiments with guns for four, plus super-numary personnel that was organized into an infantry “defense” battalion, 52 crated A-24 dive bombers of the 27th BG, the personnel already on site in the PI, and 18 P-40 fighters together with heaps of all sorts of vehicles and equipment. Artillery, or trained artillery units, was what was most lacking in the Philippine army organization, particularly in those divisions based in the Visayas and on Mindanao. When MacArthur decided he had to withdraw into Bataan he initiated a general reinforcement of Mindanao with units from the Visayan islands. This proved successful in that the Japanese Davao (Miura) Detachment was checked for three months, actually before the mentioned reinforcements arrived in any numbers. After that, Mindanao was declared an independent command by MacArthur, led by Brig.-General Sharp. His intention was surely to assure a continued resistance in the PI even if Bataan fell. Remember, Washington’s promises of major assistance was kept up for a long time.

Provided the supply line through the Moluccans was kept open a reinforced Mindanao defense would have been much tougher to beat.

Now to the game: Apart from the many hick-ups, delays and downright wrong decisions by me, the situation developed partly as hoped for. The Pensacola artillery units never got there, they got stuck up in Suva, but the Aussies contributed with several units to the defense of Menado, the crucial point in the Moluccan supply link. This defense rejected the first Japanese invasion attempts. Instead they changed their efforts to Ternate, east of Menado and as potentially troublesome as a Menado in Japanese hands but with less basing potential. This cost them dearly. In all 26 transports and naval vessels were sunk by marauding allied warships in the following two weeks, till Menado was taken in a renewed assault. In the meantime the Japanese had been chased out of Davao.

This repeated itself a little later when they went for Ambon (at exact the same date as RL). Beaten back they instead went for Namlea, west of Ambon. An easy capture with no garrison but a good airfield (in actuality, Namlea had two airfields – as had Ambon). The history repeated itself, the reinforcement of Namlea became quite costly for them, US warships constantly venturing out on bombardment missions from Ambon.

Just now the fighter situation has improved drastically, Koepang and Saumlaki have beeen reinforced together with Ambon and much more troops are arriving shortly. CV Saratoga has arrived, too, but Lexington needs to be withdrawn to a base for some minor repairs. Her fighter complement (Buffalos) is also tied down for maintenance on Ambon. The enemy seems more or less to have given up improving on the situation in the center. Instead they have landed two places on Java and are building up on Southern Papua - Lae and Buna. Would there have been a Coral Sea battle? Hardly, I do not have any naval forces there…..Has he lost his nerve regarding landing operations with his heavy losses in transports….? Shall he instead chose to advance along the Kokoda trail to Port Moresby…? We shall never know….

Well, on to the new installation and all that follows with that…..Thank you all, for your attention.

Fred


< Message edited by Leandros -- 4/28/2015 11:34:51 AM >


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to Leandros)
Post #: 98
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/28/2015 10:37:44 AM   
wdolson

 

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It will take some further learning, but you can edit scenarios and even AI scripts. You could set up an AI script that has the Japanese follow history fairly closely.

Bill

_____________________________

WitP AE - Test team lead, programmer

(in reply to Leandros)
Post #: 99
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/28/2015 10:42:16 AM   
BBfanboy


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You CAN play both sides initially to get the historic Japanese responses in the Philippines, and then switch the Japanese side back to the AI, but ... you need to play the entire Japanese side including some of the management of their industry - a huge undertaking. To thoroughly test your ideas under the historic conditions you want, you would really have to set up a new scenario in the editor - copy the existing Grand Campaign Scenario 1 to a different game slot and start editing force locations and targets. I do not know how to modify AI scripts so I can't say if everything would follow historic lines from the edited changes.

Re: Lae to Buna on Papua/New Guinea - I think the Japanese held these and were already trying to advance on the Kokoda track before they launched the invasion of Port Moresby, which triggered the battle of the Coral Sea. Yamamoto was not in favour of that invasion as he wanted all six of his big carriers for the Midway operation, but the high command forced him to provide Shokaku and Zuikaku to support the army.



_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Leandros)
Post #: 100
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/28/2015 10:43:13 AM   
warspite1


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Would it not make more sense to play hotseat vs yourself so that you can control how the Japanese respond? I am just thinking otherwise you run the risk that you get deep into the game and the AI makes a move that you really don't think the Japanese would have made - which kind of spoils what you are trying to achieve here. I guess the downside would be the extra time it takes?

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



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Post #: 101
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/28/2015 11:15:20 AM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Would it not make more sense to play hotseat vs yourself so that you can control how the Japanese respond? I am just thinking otherwise you run the risk that you get deep into the game and the AI makes a move that you really don't think the Japanese would have made - which kind of spoils what you are trying to achieve here. I guess the downside would be the extra time it takes?


The AI is definitely going to do things the Japanese would not have done.

The only way to turn the game into a pseudo simulation of history is to play both sides.

However, one would need an inestimable knowledge of every detail of history to be able to pull it off.

_____________________________

Hans


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Post #: 102
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/28/2015 11:20:37 AM   
Leandros


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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Would it not make more sense to play hotseat vs yourself so that you can control how the Japanese respond? I am just thinking otherwise you run the risk that you
get deep into the game and the AI makes a move that you really don't think the Japanese would have made - which kind of spoils what you are trying to achieve here. I guess the downside would be the extra time it takes?

Yes, but I still need to make a lot of editing to get to the correct starting point. Mainly the progress of the various US supply and reinforcement transports.
To have those going as originally planned instead of being stopped, delayed or diverted is the crux of the test. After that the AI could eventually take over. The
way I have experienced it in the game untill now the AI is a more dangerous opponent than the real one. More aggressive, more reckless. To make it against the
AI would therefore perhaps be a stronger confirmation that my theory is valid.

BBF: I wouldn't put much emphasis on the industrial side as I think the result, either way, would have to surface within six to eight months. If the Philippine
US forces had survived and been reinforced relatively intact up to such time, and the supply line (Relief Route) upheld, it should influence greatly on the further
progress of the Japanese. Remember: The US-sponsored Philippine Army wasn't only what is was in December 1941 but also had a great potential for expansion
given some time.

Fred


< Message edited by Leandros -- 4/28/2015 12:22:07 PM >


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 103
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/29/2015 11:14:25 AM   
Buckrock

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros
An example of this is the Pensacola convoy. It arrived in Brisbane on December 22nd but could possibly have been there a week earlier due to being kept in limbo in the pacific for a period, awaiting confirmation to proceed directly to Australia. This convoy I found so crucial in investigating “my” scenario that without it I don’t think I would have considered it at all.


How do you get up to a week's delay from the period the convoy spent while "in limbo"? The original (pre-war) sailing schedule from Oahu had an ETA for the Suva stop-over of around 12th Dec. Despite all the limboing after Dec 7th, the convoy managed to arrive at Suva on the 13th Dec. It then spent a day there while the SS Admiral Halstead made some urgent boiler repairs before the convoy sailed on the 14th direct for Brisbane.

quote:


When MacArthur decided he had to withdraw into Bataan he initiated a general reinforcement of Mindanao with units from the Visayan islands. This proved successful in that the Japanese Davao (Miura) Detachment was checked for three months, actually before the mentioned reinforcements arrived in any numbers.


The "success" in keeping the Japanese "in check for three months" needs to also be kept in perspective. The Miura Detachment operating from Davao consisted only of one reinforced Japanese battalion. As in the game, USAFFE started with the equivalent of a PA Division at 2/3 troop strength for the defence of Mindanao. And in early January, the first of the reinforcing PA regiments from the surrounding islands arrived.

It's surprising enough that Miura's force managed to keep hold of Davao for the three months you mention, let alone the fact it tried it's hand at an offensive push in January '42 after the much larger Sakaguchi Detachment had left the Island.

Regardless, I doubt Washington expected to still have Mindanao in play for very long after the initial Japanese landings there. They could not have known the bulk of the Japanese landing force was destined for the DEI rather than to take the rest of Mindanao.

_____________________________

This was the only sig line I could think of.

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Post #: 104
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 4/30/2015 6:18:07 AM   
Leandros


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Thank you, Buckrock - appreciate your inputs.

Fred

_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to Buckrock)
Post #: 105
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/1/2015 8:17:56 AM   
Buckrock

 

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You're welcome.

But given it's "crucial" role in your hypothetical scenario, it would still be interesting to hear from you on how exactly the Pensacola Convoy could have arrived at Brisbane up to a week earlier if the historical high level command indecision that occurred after Dec 7th does not take place. As stated previously, I'm only seeing the "being kept in limbo" aspect putting the convoy about a day overall behind schedule.

_____________________________

This was the only sig line I could think of.

(in reply to Leandros)
Post #: 106
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 8:22:14 AM   
Leandros


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Buckrock

You're welcome.

But given it's "crucial" role in your hypothetical scenario, it would still be interesting to hear from you on how exactly the Pensacola Convoy could have arrived
at Brisbane up to a week earlier if the historical high level command indecision that occurred after Dec 7th does not take place. As stated previously, I'm only
seeing the "being kept in limbo" aspect putting the convoy about a day overall behind schedule.

But, wasn't the convoy ordered several times to reverse its course? Did they make up for it?

Fred


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to Buckrock)
Post #: 107
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 9:04:57 AM   
obvert


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quote:

This complicates my “test” where the main issue is to exploit the shortest supply route between Australia and the PI, the Moluccans. To get this right would, I suppose, necessitate an opponent that played like the RL up to the point where my intentions were firmly established and, after that, with a reaction time that mirrored the main Japanese aims and RL. A good example is the delayed reinforcing of the Bataan siege force and occupation of the rest of the PI.


You have to also take into account how the Japanese would have responded had something like this actually happened. They would not have continued as they did in the war just ignoring a resupply effort. They just would have diverted forces that went to Borneo to the Moluccas. Done.

I'm sure you've read extensively on this period in the war. I recently finished 'Fortress in the Pacific' and it has a ton of info early about the campaign in the PI and DEI. Based on this and other reading I've done, which highlights the massive difference in capability of the Allies vs the war-ready Japanese in this period, I can't help but think any resupply/reinforcement of the PI in this period by convoy would have been disastrous. There is a reason Japanese troops, ship crews, air pilots and leaders have more experience in their numbers in game during this period. Naval battles all went to the Japanese, air battles, even with the most advanced bomber on the planet, the B-17, went to the Japanese, and the quick invasions and fast moving, experienced troops were too much for any of the Allied forces here.

The Allied commanders needed time to learn, to understand their opponent's real capabilities, and to recognize that this was a new kind of war. No one had fought naval air power before this time, and any slow moving convoy to the PI would get just get sunk like the ships leaving the PI.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Leandros)
Post #: 108
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 10:55:53 AM   
Leandros


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It may come as no surprise to some members here that I was not able to end my first WITP game as planned – it is intoxicating…. Also, there was one more thing I
had to go through before starting anew - that of an amphibious landing. I don’t think the manual is explaining this point very good. The idea of generating barges
out of loaded supplies first sounded a little queer to me. Would it not have been better to have that sort of cargo as a particular type? And the MTB’s? As it were,
I never (I believe) activated any barges.

Anyway, I decided to expel the enemy from Namlea before rounding off. You may remember that he went ashore there after his Ambon landing had been rejected due to
the extensive defense I had put up there. That was not a problem for him as there was no defense on Namlea – but a nice airfield. Namlea is also quite close to
Ambon.

My first attempt sort of misfired. I started to load up an “amphibious” AK with a Marine Raider battalion, one of the first to arrive from the US. Before I had
arranged for more ships or an escort it set off on its own. They probably wanted the glory all for themselves – or I shouldn’t have put in the destination before
I was ready to send them off. They went ashore nicely but after a day they were struck down by the hardy Japanese defenders - Japanese Marines. They surrendered!
I started anew with the 8th Marines. The loading took several days in the over-crowded an under-serviced (that has been remedied now) port of Ambon. Every day some
Marines were lost during the loading procedures. When the four transports were ready I gave them some destroyers for fire support, a couple of independent
bombardment missions and the A-24 squadron based in Ambon. Waiting in the wings, just SW of Ambon, was a convoy with a Base Force (with radar) and an EAB
(800-something) unit onboard.

Before that I had inserted part of the 8th and a small Base Force on the western side of Namlea, the idea was to have them move on the port of Namlea cross-country.
Due to terrain (I suppose) this force never came into play and it had to be supported, and reinforced, by air-dropped supplies and PBY’s landing on the coast.

The next attack went in nicely and within a day the enemy was driven out of Namlea so that the airfield could be used again. Two more days, with the support of the
newly arrived Base forces (I suppose), the defenders were destroyed “by attrition”.

In the meantime the opponent had been active on the southern part of Celebes, Java and Halmahera (Ternate). Sumatra was largely over-looked. This cost him dearly
in transports and light escorts due to “our” daily and nightly raids around the Moluccan Sea with combined CL and DD forces. Some Dutch units were particularly
effective. Even combinations of DMS’s. Lately, the enemy has been quite passive in the use of his carriers and heavy units in the central area. Could this be
because he has had some confirmed losses there? OTH, he has invaded the Andamans and created havoc around Ceylon.

I have neglected the islands along the Pacific supply lines with the result that several central islands have been invaded, necessitating major southerly
re-routings. The Lae-Buna area seem to be in a major build-up stage and the Japanese have landed in Milne Bay. They’re flying regular missions south of the
Torres Strait and against Port Moresby. PM has been reinforced by a US (56th) CD regiment.

Bataan fell on February 22nd after very heavy daily artillery bombardments and bombings – up to 700 guns participating with US losses 300-1500 per bombardment.
Apart from the many small garrisons in the Visayas there are still three resistance pockets on Mindanao, the main one being around Zamboanga. This last one is
bombed daily, the Japanese flying out of Jolo and Luzon.

For me, the chance of keeping the Philippine Relief Route open hinged around the holding of Menado. For that the artillery units in the Pensacola convoy were
“crucial”. You may remember that the first Japanese attempt failed, diverting them to Ternate. As we know, the Pensacola units became stuck in Suva for many weeks, only
now are they in the Moluccan area. To take back Menado implies a very major operation considering the Japanese bases skirting the Moluccan Sea now.

The “Second Barrier”, behind the “Malayan Barrier”, is now the moon-shaped Timor-Saumlaki-Ambon/Namlea line. Ambon/Namlea is heavily defended, Timor, too, while
Saumlaki need more reinforcements. The purpose of Saumlaki is to ensure the air route to Ambon. Timor need a second, eastern, resistance point. CV Saratoga is
operating out of Koepang, Timor. CV Lexington is under repairs in Darwin.

Is now the time to bail out?

Fred





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Leandros -- 5/4/2015 12:30:49 PM >


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 109
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 12:34:11 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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Have a look at the Wargmr vs njp72 game right now. The PI is not taken and it's into mid-42. Wargmr may have some insights for you about the possibility or impossibility of reinforcing/resupplying the PI.

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(in reply to Leandros)
Post #: 110
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 12:42:55 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Have a look at the Wargmr vs njp72 game right now. The PI is not taken and it's into mid-42. Wargmr may have some insights for you about the possibility or impossibility of reinforcing/resupplying the PI.


I think this is an exceptional game where njp72 tried a very aggressive start with expansion in every direction but did not have enough to secure everything behind his perimeter, and Wargamr is especially good at taking advantage of that. I don't think the AI would ignore the programmed targets for long.

_____________________________

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(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 111
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 12:49:18 PM   
Leandros


Posts: 1740
Joined: 3/5/2015
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Have a look at the Wargmr vs njp72 game right now. The PI is not taken and it's into mid-42. Wargmr may have some insights for you about the possibility or impossibility of reinforcing/resupplying the PI.

Thank you, guys. Please accept my apology for my upcoming post. I was just working on it.

Fred


< Message edited by Leandros -- 5/4/2015 2:19:48 PM >


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 112
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 12:50:10 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Have a look at the Wargmr vs njp72 game right now. The PI is not taken and it's into mid-42. Wargmr may have some insights for you about the possibility or impossibility of reinforcing/resupplying the PI.


I think this is an exceptional game where njp72 tried a very aggressive start with expansion in every direction but did not have enough to secure everything behind his perimeter, and Wargamr is especially good at taking advantage of that. I don't think the AI would ignore the programmed targets for long.


Exactly. But why has Wargmr decided not to reinforce the PI? That's the question that is relevant.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 113
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 1:11:27 PM   
Leandros


Posts: 1740
Joined: 3/5/2015
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

This complicates my “test” where the main issue is to exploit the shortest supply route between Australia and the PI, the Moluccans. To get this right would, I
suppose, necessitate an opponent that played like the RL up to the point where my intentions were firmly established and, after that, with a reaction time that
mirrored the main Japanese aims and RL. A good example is the delayed reinforcing of the Bataan siege force and occupation of the rest of the PI.


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
You have to also take into account how the Japanese would have responded had something like this actually happened. They would not have continued as they did in
the war just ignoring a resupply effort. They just would have diverted forces that went to Borneo to the Moluccas. Done.

Doesn’t my above insert by you cover this….? This has also been my experience with the AI even if I believe it has been much cleverer, and faster, than the RL
would have been.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
I'm sure you've read extensively on this period in the war. I recently finished 'Fortress in the Pacific' and it has a ton of info early about the campaign in
the PI and DEI. Based on this and other reading I've done, which highlights the massive difference in capability of the Allies vs the war-ready Japanese in this
period, I can't help but think any resupply/reinforcement of the PI in this period by convoy would have been disastrous.

Thank you for the tip. You have to consider my pre-requisite that the USN was wholly used for US purpose and not ABDA’s. Even several transports got through both
ways, none (that I know of – other than singular submarine missions) had any USN support. As late as the beginning of April a final mission was planned – Operation
PLUM – to supply Bataan by three inter-island freighters, supported by B-25’s and B-17’s flown up from Australia. Only the AAC was involved in supporting this. It
failed, partly because of a too tight schedule of the bombers meant to participate. Included in that force was a number of B-25’s. Imagine if Doolittle’s planes,
among others, had been used for such purposes instead. Surely, Doolittle’s raid was good for the domestic morale but it didn’t help the poor guys at Bataan very
much. I'm just hinting at actions taken that didn't do any good where it really mattered.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
There is a reason Japanese troops, ship crews, air pilots and leaders have more experience in their numbers in game during this period.

So, you think the game is reasonably realistic in this respect?

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
Naval battles all went to the Japanese, air battles, even with the most advanced bomber on the planet, the B-17, went to the Japanese, and the quick invasions
and fast moving, experienced troops were too much for any of the Allied forces here.

Surely, but looking at each encounter there was as much the question of numbers and materiel that counted. A main part in my scenario is to get the numbers forward.
On Bataan the numbers were to US advantage. RL also shows that the Japanese were quite hung up in their original planning. They had to give up the (first) planned
occupation of Mindanao because some of the forces there were also meant to be used on the southbound advance through The Moluccans. The same happened in the game,
the AI actually withdrew completely from Davao, only to come back later. I wonder if the game is considering the number of potential Japanese conscripts in the
Davao area? Morrison, if I remember correctly, sets the number to 7.000.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

The Allied commanders needed time to learn, to understand their opponent's real capabilities, and to recognize that this was a new kind of war. No one had fought
naval air power before this time...

Particularly the carrier war shows that the USN wasn’t behind the Japanese in that respect. Just my opinion. But in the beginning they wasted much time cruising
around the Pacific attacking small Japanese island garrisons. But, I’m sure it was good training.

quote:

….and any slow moving convoy to the PI would just get sunk like the ships leaving the PI.

Unescorted ships did got through as late as March….some went the other way, too.

Fred


< Message edited by Leandros -- 5/4/2015 2:18:53 PM >


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to Leandros)
Post #: 114
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 1:28:07 PM   
Leandros


Posts: 1740
Joined: 3/5/2015
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I think this is an exceptional game where njp72 tried a very aggressive start with expansion in every direction but did not have enough to secure everything behind his perimeter, and Wargamr is especially good at
taking advantage of that. I don't think the AI would ignore the programmed targets for long.

Isn't this really what the Japanese did in RL? According to Morrison, before the war, Washington analysts deemed such behaviour as a clear over-stretch. Problem
is Washington didn't act like it were - coupled with committing the USN Resources wholly to ABDA and holding back the large mass of men and materiel already on
its way or about to leave the US for The Philippines.

Fred


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 115
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 3:10:06 PM   
Leandros


Posts: 1740
Joined: 3/5/2015
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Exactly. But why has Wargmr decided not to reinforce the PI? That's the question that is relevant.

I've quickly (and partly) read through the thread. How can he do it when the Torres Strait is closed and the Moluccan Islands were taken quite early? Also, at the time they
don't really need to be reinforced or resupplied as long as there are no assaults. I should think the US army could be feed by local sources but their materiel
situation would inevitably get worse.

That said, an interesting scenario. How much better would the PI army be, given the the increased period of training and organisation? The 10 divisions could be
fully manned and trained in larger formations. How much fuel for Aircraft training and patrolling and the navy and inter-Island transports.

Fred


< Message edited by Leandros -- 5/4/2015 4:15:05 PM >


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 116
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 3:19:36 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline
Leandros,

I am not sure anyone has mentioned this yet but the game follows a script and that script can be different from game to game. I have heard that there are 12 possible scenarios. So, you may find that as you play repeatedly against the AI you may not get the same results.

Other people have much more information on this than I do.

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Post #: 117
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 3:23:34 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Have a look at the Wargmr vs njp72 game right now. The PI is not taken and it's into mid-42. Wargmr may have some insights for you about the possibility or impossibility of reinforcing/resupplying the PI.


I think this is an exceptional game where njp72 tried a very aggressive start with expansion in every direction but did not have enough to secure everything behind his perimeter, and Wargamr is especially good at taking advantage of that. I don't think the AI would ignore the programmed targets for long.


Exactly. But why has Wargmr decided not to reinforce the PI? That's the question that is relevant.



NJP did not attack the Philipines until late in the last game. In fact, I think I still held Singapore. Check the AAR "What could possibly go wrong?" for a very detailed AAR from the beginning till January 1945.

In my opinion the supply of the Phillipines is not sustainable and throwing good ships after lost troops is foolish. The only advantage of trying would be that I would divert some of his assets to sinking cargo ships and I do not need to draw his attention/forces in that direction at that cost.

NJP will shortly finish taking the Philipines. He has lost some fuel but otherwise strategically it has not hurt him IMO.

It would be interesting to see how you played a game under these conditions Obvert.

_____________________________


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 118
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 3:47:00 PM   
Leandros


Posts: 1740
Joined: 3/5/2015
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

In my opinion the supply of the Phillipines is not sustainable and throwing good ships after lost troops is foolish.

No problem with that. As long as the supply route is closed, it's closed. With no assets used to keep it open it must inevitably be closed.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

NJP will shortly finish taking the Philipines. He has lost some fuel but otherwise strategically it has not hurt him IMO.

I agree. With the described scenario, Australia for a large part in Japanese hands, Mr. Quezon would probably have sent MacArthur home and sued for peace.
I wouldn't have blamed him...

Fred


< Message edited by Leandros -- 5/4/2015 4:54:54 PM >


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 119
RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 3:57:05 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

In my opinion the supply of the Phillipines is not sustainable and throwing good ships after lost troops is foolish.

No problem with that. As long as the supply route is closed, it's closed. With no assets used to keep it open it must inevitably be closed.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

NJP will shortly finish taking the Philipines. He has lost some fuel but otherwise strategically it has not hurt him IMO.

I agree. With the described scenario, Australia for a large part in Japanese hands, Mr. Quezon would probably have sent MacArthur home and sued for peace.
I wouldn't have blamed him...

Fred



Baah, it is only a flesh wound!! The Allies are currently marching on Adelaide and Brisbane as we speak!!

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