Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Reinforcing Hawaii just means more mouths to feed in a location that is completely dependent on imported supplies and/or resources. Hawaii will also require fuel for ASW operations to keep the sea lanes open to bring in the supplies/resources. How are the Japanese going to get all of those troops out of Hawaii if Hawaii gets bypassed?

Hawaii makes a little supply. Hilo has the Resources.

quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain



I do not think the opponent is making such an obvious mistake. Thus, he must have a purpose for transporting all those excessive units to Hawaii, not reinforcing or developing the North Pacific, and halting his advance in the South Pacific. Given his past attempts to garner VP from an otherwise pointless strategic bombing campaign on the West Coast, I think it is safe to conclude he is trying to achieve an automatic victory. Since this is a game that I think he wants to win in dramatic fashion, having taken over after Hawaii was captured, winning by automatic victory with a successful invasion of an essential West Coast base is his plan.

quote:

... as the Centpac (island-hopping) offensive and strategic bombing of the HI doesn't work.

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

The fuel requirement for a couple of xAKLs on a CS setting between Pearl and Hilo is minimal.

The threat of subs is minimal as well as the entire route is through shallow waters that can be heavily over watched by ASW air assets.

The organic supply generation of the islands may not be sufficient for the entire garrison, but does reduce the load for bringing in supply form an external source.

quote:

ORIGINAL: venividivici10044a

You've previously stated that PH has not affected your convoy routing bu much time. You state above that you have no plans on going Centpac and don't need PH for Sopac. You mention his Alaskan holdings are not well defended. So is it your conclusion that he's defending against an Allied run against Centpac and leaving the door open for a run at Norpac?

What are your thoughts as to the value of PH for Japan prior to it becomming a problem in 1944?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

How's the Great Campaign Against Tobacco going, Jocke? I hope you kicked its butt, giving you yet another reason to celebrate your birthday. :)

quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Happy Birthday. I won't waste a birthday wish on anything as mundane as success in this game. Instead my wish for you is for you to get more joy out of life than you would sinking the KB in the coming year.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Grattis på födelsedagen!!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

full KB sunk?

na, maybe the escape of the former Ledo defenders should be enough for now.
That will become an interesting 'meeting engangement' - seriously, is there something like an automatic attack modeled, when marching forces met each other?
Back to silence, as I follow both sides.
Excellent read btw, as usual, I might add.

quote:

11th RF Gun Battalion is loaded on xAK Nitian Maru moving to Pearl Harbor.
5th Air Division is loaded on xAP Teikyo Maru moving to Lahaina.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


Anyone still think I should worry about a WC invasion?

quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown
Yes. What happens if he takes Portland? I think all the ships that are scheduled to arrive here are destroyed.
What if he takes LA? All of the aircraft factories are destroyed.

I think you see what I am saying. He doesn't have to hold a base, he just has to take it one day
and a lot of production is down the drain.

quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

I think it is safe to say an invasion of the West Coast resulting in a decisive Japanese victory is not realistic. A direct amphibious assault at a major base will face either level 8 or 9 forts, substantial CD and well prepped defenders. Any will be reinforced well before the local garrisons can be defeated.

Acknowledging this, it doesn't mean the Japanese won't try just for the heck of it. This is a game, and your opponent may have enough invested in a WC invasion to say "Let's go for it" since similar circumstances will not likely present themselves in future games. He could decide to invade for the entertainment value.

quote:

Sub attack near Phuket at 48,70

Japanese Ships
xAK Kiyoshima Maru, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
PB Kiko Maru

Allied Ships
SS Trusty

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown
Yes. What happens if he takes Portland? I think all the ships that are scheduled to arrive here are destroyed.
What if he takes LA? All of the aircraft factories are destroyed.

I think you see what I am saying. He doesn't have to hold a base, he just has to take it one day
and a lot of production is down the drain.

Yes, but he can´t teleport his troops straight to Portland...how many days out will he be detected? Lets use Portland as an example.

D-3 Fleet is detected. Rapid response troops (1 Armored ID, 2 IDs + 1 USMC ID, 2 Tank BTLs) move towards Portland. Troops in LA, SD, SF and Seattle go to strat mode. Fighters fly to Northern WC. Subs move for the area.
D-2. Rapid response troops arrives in Portland. Shifts to Combat Mode
D-1. Possible Allied conterstrikes from the air. Troops in the rest of US strat move towards Portland.
Landing. Japanese troops start unloading. Emergency reinforcements triggered. 5000ish AV rails towards Portland. Rapid response team are in combat mode.
D+1. AV at Portland 2200 behind level 6 forts in x2 terrain. Earliest possible Japanese attack. 5000 AV arrives in strat mode.
D+2 More allied troops arriving. Regiments are now in Combat mode. Emergency reinforcements rails towards Portland.
D+3 More allied troops arriving. Some divisions are now in Combat mode.
D+5 20 divisions are now in Portland.

This is just an example. Most likely I would get a lot more warning then just 3 days. I have subs stationed of the coast as well as SIGINT.

All I have to do is prevent a Japanese capture for a couple of days. I also think its highly unlikely the Japanese could attack on the first day after the landing.

LA is beyond Japanese capabilities to capture at this stage. UH (x3) terrain and level 8 forts make it utterly impossible.

No matter how much I twist and turn this I can´t see any possible way that the Japanese could pull this off. Especially not under the current circumstance when the Allies are prepared.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK
But,

Multiple threats appear on D-3, which is the real target??
Have to hold reinforcements until sure. (This was the beauty of Operation Fortitude)

Landings in multiple places, do any possible landing points interdict the Nth - Sth movement of your reaction.

How far can japanese transports drop Para's, further cutting your LOC's

I reckon its a stupid plan for the timeline, maybe in very early 1942 as a continuation of the original landings. However, it would make for an interesting AAR.

Dont forget to keep your troops Resting/Training as much as is possible. Your50=60 exp units would be facing 80+ exp troops, and keep working on a plan to make such an attack a bad idea!

quote:

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

I like how you are thinking in terms of time. I also think his chance of success would be low if he tried, but your timeline is a bit off.

You may detect his fleet at D-3, but how will you know where it is going? A Portland force could be going to Seattle or even northern cal. I don't think you can commit reserves that early. That said, with size 6-8 forts, waiting until landing won't make Mich difference in the end.

A few other things to consider. First, he could land something in the north (portland), then bring in the main force south (or vice versa).
As for sigint...he only needs to prep a few units for the landing site. He can have other units prepped for other landing sites he has no intention of using (or as secondary targets if he discovers the primary is too tough).
In the end, it probably won't matter, but it isn't quite as simple as you make it out.