KenchiSulla
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Joined: 10/22/2008
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
quote:
ORIGINAL: Feltan
Amoral,
You are correct. I offered the notion more as rationale for playing the historical first turn. Given the facts on the ground to the Japanese at the time, NOT attacking Pearl would have been silly. If they believed, which they did, that the carriers would be there .... how on earth could you justify going for subs at Manila?
Regards,
Feltan
I have a few thoughts on the issue of historical first turn, but also on the first phase overall now that the game is six years old.
Background: I'm in my third PBEM with my third opponent. The second game is on-going, now in September 1943. The third is 42 days in. All have been played with non-historical first and surprise on. No Allied orders on the 7th except to existing TFs and limited CAP in zones already at war such as China. All have been played with no HRs. Let me EMPHASIZE that in the third game I describe below I mean no criticism of my opponent's play. I agreed to the terms. He is an excellent player. But the results to date make me think I may not play another non-historical start.
On the Dec. 7th move alone the issue to me is basically one of immobile game design in the areas of magic TFs and the amphib bonus, coupled with perfect Japanese knowledge of every single Allied force disposition down to individual device, a case that does not occur again ever in the next four years of war, AND six years of Japanese players refining and tightening their first moves to the Nth degree so as to not waste a ship, a plane, or a soldier. This was not the case when the game was new. This was not the case when the magic TF and amphib bonus code was written. But it's true now, and whether the move is on Manila, a Mersing Gambit, multiple-day PH attacks, or as was the case in my game a KB attack on a sleeping San Diego, the initial situation the Allies find themselves in serves to bake in a 1942 that is wholly unlike anything even in the same neighborhood as history.
On the 42nd day (my FOW here of course) Japan has gained 7458 VPs; I have lost 2777. A net swing of 10,235. I have lost 271 ships, including Saratoga at the pier on the first turn with her complete air group. Japan has lost 11 ships. I have lost 609 planes; Japan 517. I have lost Midway, the Aleutians up to Dutch Harbor, Singers (modified Mersing during the first week.) Manila port was bombed the first day and nearly every day since. I have lost about 14 subs and the rest of the tenders, support ships and DDs that were there. Soerbaja was neutralized in the first week at the cost of multiple CLs, most of the air force, and any hope of it being a sub base for Manila survivors. A Netty base was quickly established at Denpassar (sp?) to the SE, cutting off that escape route for any merchant refugees. In fact every escape route out of the central map was efficiently cut off by a perfectly balanced surface TF supported by search within the first week. Suva has a division plus a regiment; three attempts to re-supply have been sunk by a perfectly placed surface TF supported by search. I expect Pago Pago will be treated the same, with final back-fill to Noumea. In contrast to the deep takings, the PI are being left alone; long experience has taught Japan players this is fine. And so on.
The historical Allied OOB and dispositions cannot withstand this perfect storm of knowledge and code gifts (the amphib bonus is shattering with the experience now held) and still maintain any hope of a 1942-half-of-1943 which is other than not simply getting ready to "do something." Targets like Noumea and Suva, given their VP multiples, cannot be ignored, yet they cannot be re-taken before carrier strength and some semblance of amphib vessel force is gained. Unlike the free canvas offered to a creative Japan player, an Allied player six years into the game's life is channeled into a pure survival stance for about half the game's span, operating in wholly ahistoric geographies, facing torpedo bombers and third-gen aircraft operating in ways the Empire could only dream of. Island hopping is simply impossible before dominant carrier power is achieved sometime in 1944. And once that early period is withstood and the Allies can begin to operate historically, many Japan players quit and leave.
Much of this is not the fault of an ahistoric first turn. It's the fault of an immobile and un-editable EXE file coupled with six years of refinement. But an ahistoric Dec. 7 contributes, particularly as in my game where one precious carrier is lost at a location impossible for the IJN to reach on Dec. 7th. A Dec. 8 start does not fix the magic TF problem or the amphib bonus duration problem. But it helps put 1942 on some sort of reasonable start position.
Edit: I believe I misspoke. A Dec 8th start DOES fix the magic TF problem by making them moot. Correct?
You have lost Saratoga, that stings... There are houserules for this, the only way to keep the engine controllable for turn 1....
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AKA Cannonfodder
"It happened, therefore it can happen again: this is the core of what we have to say. It can happen, and it can happen everywhere.”
¯ Primo Levi, writer, holocaust survivor
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