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RE: Manila Falls - 7/21/2016 10:12:57 PM   
Grollub


Posts: 6674
Joined: 10/9/2005
From: Lulea, Sweden
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Lowpe's question makes me wonder though.

If the Allied player sees a false combat animation for an event that didn't happen could that provide some intel?

Suppose he saw a surface combat encounter that actually never happened.

Although the encounter never happened, its possible the two involved forces actually are in the area and the random die rolls caused no encounter to happen.

The Allied player seeing the false encounter would then have intel on the composition of the TF that is in the area but he never had a dust up with.

This is the kind of thing I think Lowpe was alluding to.


I had exactly that scenario in one of my earlier campaigns. A surface engagement with a Dutch CL SCTF grossly outgunned by a Jap CA SCTF. The engagement didn't go well for the Dutch.

After having a later look at the combat report, it appeared that the engagement never had happened. Instead, one of the Dutch subs in the area had put two torps into CS Nisshin in another TF apparentely trailing what I guessed were the SCTF I (hadn't) fought.

I avoided Surface combat the next turn, instead vectoring subs to the presumed retreat routes.

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Post #: 2131
RE: Manila Falls - 7/22/2016 4:11:45 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Lowpe's question makes me wonder though.

If the Allied player sees a false combat animation for an event that didn't happen could that provide some intel?

Suppose he saw a surface combat encounter that actually never happened.

Although the encounter never happened, its possible the two involved forces actually are in the area and the random die rolls caused no encounter to happen.

The Allied player seeing the false encounter would then have intel on the composition of the TF that is in the area but he never had a dust up with.

This is the kind of thing I think Lowpe was alluding to.


Hans, you are quite correct. Nicely worded.



This is true, but that would involve different ship movement. So far as I know, the only way this could occur is if there was a night-time reaction based on night aerial search hits, as that's the only part where there would be RNG rolls. TF movement is almost never based on RNG rolls. The only time I can think of is an aggression check for reacting or retreating.


Edit: or the sub action thing above, which would affect a TF's movement by slowing it down. That's also subject to RNG.

< Message edited by Lokasenna -- 7/22/2016 4:15:08 AM >

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2132
RE: Manila Falls - 7/28/2016 4:53:47 AM   
bigred


Posts: 3599
Joined: 12/27/2007
Status: offline 		Hi Lowpe. So is the main hammer coming down at Seattle?

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IJ Production mistakes--
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Post #: 2133
RE: Manila Falls - 7/28/2016 7:33:34 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline 		Boy, that would be a masterstroke, no?

Cheers,
CC

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Post #: 2134
RE: Manila Falls - 7/28/2016 2:55:28 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		I don't know what you guys are smoking...I don't have that many troops, and quite frankly Portland and Seattle terrain preclude taking the base quickly.

Argh...last turn went poorly in the air over southern California. Working on it now after a hiatus for Jocke's vacation.

More later today...

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 7/28/2016 2:56:28 PM >

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 2135
RE: Manila Falls - 7/28/2016 3:15:43 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Is it time for a Dunkirk?

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Post #: 2136
RE: Manila Falls - 7/28/2016 4:14:23 PM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		Whatever Greyjoy did to pull out 100,000 troops overnight at Madras is what you need to pull off here.

Not going to be easy, and its a loooooooonnng way back even to Pearl

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Post #: 2137
RE: Manila Falls - 7/29/2016 1:02:27 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Jan 23, 1943

Let's see missed an update.

I really screwed up the 22nd turn. After spending hours on it, setting up a 300 plane strike at Port Blair and destroyer raid there, retrenching my planes in the West Coast I sent the turn off to Jocke and forgot about it.

Then checking my email later, I see that I had two posts from Jocke...I didn't do an end turn send, so I thought I merely saved the game and didn't click end turn and save.

My bad, and since I am running slow I opened the turn, checked on one thing that I thought I did last, and ended the turn and sent it promptly to Jocke.

Oops. In reality I save the first and proper turn to a different file number, and sent Jocke a turn with about 5 minutes worth of orders in it. No attacks in the west, which judging by the replay would have done really well as there was no air CAP over all Jocke's juicy APs. No destroyer raid.

In the West Coast my ships don't move, so no bombardments, etc and Jockes Jugs come screaming in and get a 9-1 or so kill ratio.

Argh.

Ok, not the end of the world...today I send my destroyers in at Port Blair (but since the base fell yesterday, the Allied ships are gone, my 300 betties don't fly, nor my 100 Lilly DBs).

Then to add insult to injury, Jockes killer CL task force closes during the night with portions of the mini KB and in two fights does wonderful work savaging them and sinking one outright with others in danager of burning up to a crisp. His TF threaded between destroyer scouts to the north and hit paydirt.

The Hei and Ise and Tone Task Force that is hanging out in this area, anticipating such a move, diverted back to Pearl to refuel another careless lack of a click on my part and there are even oilers following them. Yuck.

Well done...I doubt his ships are sunk, but you never know.

And then, after having the baby carriers savaged, a Yank sub fires off a spread on the Akagi...but misses.

Two poor days, I cannot wait until I get one game going again. Two is clearly way too many for me as all I have done is screw up in the last several weeks.

And then Jocke flipped the turn while I slept and the ball is back in my court. At least the DNC convention is over and perhaps I will regain some time lost.

Time to knuckle down and think things thru, and click on them. I am my own worst enemy here.





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< Message edited by Lowpe -- 7/29/2016 1:04:32 PM >

(in reply to Grollub)
Post #: 2138
RE: Manila Falls - 7/30/2016 5:05:28 AM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
Joined: 9/15/2001
From: Los Angeles
Status: offline
quote:

Then to add insult to injury, Jockes killer CL task force closes during the night with portions of the mini KB and in two fights does wonderful work savaging them and sinking one outright with others in danager of burning up to a crisp. His TF threaded between destroyer scouts to the north and hit paydirt.


What's the damage situation on the surviving flattops? Since they're on fire (but I assume not torpedoed), do they still have enough speed to get to a friendly base?

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Post #: 2139
RE: Manila Falls - 8/1/2016 6:22:16 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Jan 23, 1943

Allies pushing ...Solomons, Burma and the Andammans.

Looks like all four baby carriers will burn up and be toast. Added ships and set to cruise but they are all gone. Sigh, silly me. Might catch his CL force tomorrow.

Another big attack at LA...

Naval bombardment causes 300 losses at San Diego.

In trouble, and getting worse...




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Post #: 2140
RE: Manila Falls - 8/2/2016 5:09:12 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Two poor days, I cannot wait until I get one game going again. Two is clearly way too many for me as all I have done is screw up in the last several weeks.



I have no idea how you do it either. It is all I can do to focus on one game .. no way to do 2...



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Pax

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Post #: 2141
RE: Manila Falls - 8/2/2016 11:58:46 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline
quote:

I have no idea how you do it either. It is all I can do to focus on one game .. no way to do 2...


+1

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Post #: 2142
RE: Manila Falls - 8/2/2016 12:55:08 PM   
dave sindel

 

Posts: 488
Joined: 3/13/2006
From: Millersburg, OH
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

quote:

I have no idea how you do it either. It is all I can do to focus on one game .. no way to do 2...


+1

+2 - and doing an AAR on both games as well

(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 2143
RE: Manila Falls - 8/3/2016 3:40:49 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Well, I am getting a break tonight as the computer started the upgrade process on me. If I had known prior I could have transferred the file to another computer (I still have one win 7 left) or to a linux machine.

Jocke is going to kill me for being so slow, but I am over 2 hours lost on this upgrade, time I was going to get the turn done and now bedtime is rapidly approaching.

Argh.

I now see that you that the upgrade gets automatically scheduled for the top of the next hour after downloading all the files.

(in reply to dave sindel)
Post #: 2144
RE: Manila Falls - 8/3/2016 5:59:21 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		I got the turn away, and Jocke is going to turn it around tomorrow morning...giving me a little breathing time to do some off turn work on the game.

I gotta escape from LA!




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Post #: 2145
RE: Manila Falls - 8/5/2016 2:49:54 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Next day...

Allies lightnings and jugs sweep...6-1 in the Allied favor.

2 baby carriers burn up taking 40 planes with them. Four baby carriers gone....

Catch the Allied ships responsible...sink 3 CL and perhaps 5-6 destroyers. Small satisfaction.

Grim., grim and grimmer.




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Post #: 2146
RE: Manila Falls - 8/5/2016 2:52:23 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Judy...




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Post #: 2147
RE: Manila Falls - 8/9/2016 4:28:37 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Planning a retreat from the West Coast...will see how it goes.

Finally got the turn around, hope to improve turnarounds here shortly.\

Frank A factory fully repaired and researching. Two Jack J2M3 r&D fully, and one George factory researching the other at 29 repaired and 1 one left.

90 Oscar IIIa in the pool...how will they do against the Jugs I wonder?

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2148
RE: Manila Falls - 8/10/2016 7:32:30 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Jan 26, 1943

Meh, not a great day...really in a pickle.




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Post #: 2149
RE: Manila Falls - 8/10/2016 7:33:41 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Ship losses...




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Post #: 2150
RE: Manila Falls - 8/10/2016 7:34:49 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		P40 and Lightning swept prior to a nicely escorted heavy bombing run at Pendleton.




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Post #: 2151
RE: Manila Falls - 8/10/2016 10:42:22 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		Must not make clucking noises... must not make clucking noises...

So, when are you getting out? What are you going to try to save? What are you writing off?

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2152
RE: Manila Falls - 8/11/2016 5:30:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Hey, Jeff, thanks for taking the road less traveled to explore the possibilite of a West Coast invasion in early '43. Things haven't turned out how you'd like, but I'll bet you've learned a great deal that will benefit you in future games.

From the perspective of your Penaut Gallery, it's the most fun to follow AARs that delve into unusual approaches to the game. It is and has been entertaining.

It looks like things have veered off course for you in such a way that you are probably disheartened a bit at the moment. As well all know, breaking contact can be the most challenging, complicated and painful undertaking in this game (and in real war, I think).

Against your wishes, you will now be involved in another novel war - one in which Japan has created an unusual alignment of forces in pursuit of an objective...and one in which the Allies, consequently, have unusual openings.

Just how creative and tenacious can you be in crafting new strategies to meet these novelties? I strongly suspect that you will surprise yourself going forward with just how tough a Japanese player can be.

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Post #: 2153
RE: Manila Falls - 8/11/2016 8:29:12 PM   
tiemanjw

 

Posts: 580
Joined: 12/6/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Jeff, thanks for taking the road less traveled to explore the possibilite of a West Coast invasion in early '43. Things haven't turned out how you'd like, but I'll bet you've learned a great deal that will benefit you in future games.

From the perspective of your Penaut Gallery, it's the most fun to follow AARs that delve into unusual approaches to the game. It is and has been entertaining.

It looks like things have veered off course for you in such a way that you are probably disheartened a bit at the moment. As well all know, breaking contact can be the most challenging, complicated and painful undertaking in this game (and in real war, I think).

Against your wishes, you will now be involved in another novel war - one in which Japan has created an unusual alignment of forces in pursuit of an objective...and one in which the Allies, consequently, have unusual openings.

Just how creative and tenacious can you be in crafting new strategies to meet these novelties? I strongly suspect that you will surprise yourself going forward with just how tough a Japanese player can be.


+1

Especially the exploring the road less traveled part.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2154
RE: Manila Falls - 8/12/2016 6:11:19 AM   
njp72

 

Posts: 1372
Joined: 9/20/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Jeff, thanks for taking the road less traveled to explore the possibilite of a West Coast invasion in early '43. Things haven't turned out how you'd like, but I'll bet you've learned a great deal that will benefit you in future games.

From the perspective of your Penaut Gallery, it's the most fun to follow AARs that delve into unusual approaches to the game. It is and has been entertaining.

It looks like things have veered off course for you in such a way that you are probably disheartened a bit at the moment. As well all know, breaking contact can be the most challenging, complicated and painful undertaking in this game (and in real war, I think).

Against your wishes, you will now be involved in another novel war - one in which Japan has created an unusual alignment of forces in pursuit of an objective...and one in which the Allies, consequently, have unusual openings.

Just how creative and tenacious can you be in crafting new strategies to meet these novelties? I strongly suspect that you will surprise yourself going forward with just how tough a Japanese player can be.


+1

Especially the exploring the road less traveled part.



Excellent summary.

Though there is no way Lowpe knows retreat, he will just advance in another direction. One of the most resilient individuals in our little community.

(in reply to tiemanjw)
Post #: 2155
RE: Manila Falls - 8/12/2016 11:36:48 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		Troops are expendable, airframes are expendable (ok, there are costs but at least you can replace them)

The IJN isn't

Abandoning your troops and getting out of Dodge asap might be the only way out of this.

Either way, just want to echo what others have said, these are fascinating reads for those of us with the time/skills/guts to do an AAR!

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Post #: 2156
RE: Manila Falls - 8/12/2016 12:47:03 PM   
dave sindel

 

Posts: 488
Joined: 3/13/2006
From: Millersburg, OH
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Jeff, thanks for taking the road less traveled to explore the possibilite of a West Coast invasion in early '43. Things haven't turned out how you'd like, but I'll bet you've learned a great deal that will benefit you in future games.

From the perspective of your Penaut Gallery, it's the most fun to follow AARs that delve into unusual approaches to the game. It is and has been entertaining.

It looks like things have veered off course for you in such a way that you are probably disheartened a bit at the moment. As well all know, breaking contact can be the most challenging, complicated and painful undertaking in this game (and in real war, I think).

Against your wishes, you will now be involved in another novel war - one in which Japan has created an unusual alignment of forces in pursuit of an objective...and one in which the Allies, consequently, have unusual openings.

Just how creative and tenacious can you be in crafting new strategies to meet these novelties? I strongly suspect that you will surprise yourself going forward with just how tough a Japanese player can be.


+1

Especially the exploring the road less traveled part.


+2

(in reply to tiemanjw)
Post #: 2157
RE: Manila Falls - 8/12/2016 1:02:08 PM   
Drakanel

 

Posts: 253
Joined: 4/6/2015
Status: offline 		I too have really enjoyed this, no matter the results.

And I too agree with encircled. Absolutely prioritize ships over troops and airframes.

Also, be sure to prepare for counterattacks around the map. Harden your defenses at key targets and the like. He's bound to press on hard now.

(in reply to dave sindel)
Post #: 2158
RE: Manila Falls - 8/12/2016 2:28:24 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Sorry for being so late. I am still enthused about the game, just going thru a rocky spot with regard to my health.

I should flip the turn today, although it might be late for Jocke to get it.


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Post #: 2159
RE: Manila Falls - 8/12/2016 3:23:28 PM   
bigred


Posts: 3599
Joined: 12/27/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not sure how it works on the Allied side of things, but here is a list of CVE that spawn at San Diego. If this were Japan, they would be destroyed and VP awarded for their destruction.

Not to mention the destruction of all the Plane factories.

What a delicious target.





Not certain if San Diego is best target for a December 1942 invasion. I would need to give more consideration to the planning first.

The good news is that if you do capture an Allied port which has ships scheduled to arrive, those ships are destroyed (as in scuttled or cancelled) and you receive 50% of their standard VP. Which is one reason why other important ports with far larger than San Diego Allied ship "construction" (=ship arrival dates) need to be considered.

Then again San Diego has all those aircraft factories although again other significant aircraft factory sites also exist. For example capturing Seattle really does cripple the Allied 4E force structure as American 4E production is heavily dependent on onmap, not offmap, factory production. Which would Japan rather face in 1944, 4E or 2E Allied bombers.

Were it not for the effect of the narrow straits, landing directly at Portland or Tacoma has a lot of merit. Partly because you could factor in friendly LBA and use of paratroops as blocking forces.

There is a lot more than the above to take into account before settling on the final destination.

Alfred

Question Alfred. Are the ships destroyed if the allies recapture the base? If the allies recature the city/planes factories can the research/ production factories be repaired?

< Message edited by bigred -- 8/12/2016 3:27:12 PM >

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IJ Production mistakes--
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Post #: 2160
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