warspite1
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Some thoughts.
1. Germany invades Spain. In line with Klydon, I just cannot see this as a possibility to the point that, to my mind, it is simply not worth thinking about. It was bad enough trying to get the German public (not to mention the party faithful) and other countries, sympathetic to Germany, to accept the Nazi-Soviet Pact, but a declaration of war against a right-wing/Fascist country that they had fought alongside just the previous year? Another consideration - although nowhere as important - is that one of the reasons for allowing Vichy was to stop the Germans from having to administer such a large country; well Spain is little different in size – and parts of it are a good deal less hospitable. A considerable number of German troops would be required not only to conquer Spain but to garrison it afterwards - not to mention Spanish Morocco.
In addition to the problems of Nazi Germany attacking Spain, as brian brian said, there is no way realistically that Mussolini – who invested far more than Germany into installing Franco, and with whom, as a southern European nation, the Italians had far more in common with – could survive such a volte-face; particularly so as it would be clear that Italy are simply doing Germany’s bidding.
So for me that is out.
2. So we are back to the feasibility – or otherwise - of Germany getting Spain into the war. So how could that play out? Historically:
1940
3rd June. It is clear that the French are defeated. Franco writes personally to Hitler in gushing terms – but also bemoaning the fact that after 3-years of Civil War, the country is screwed (or words to that effect). He follows this up by sending the head of the Spanish General Staff to meet Hitler in Belgium to follow up the point – oh and to make clear that the Spanish want French Morocco. He also mentions Spanish plans to take Gibraltar.
Hitler has other things on his mind – the final defeat of France, the negotiation (or imposition) of an armistice upon France. At this stage he hasn’t got round to thinking ‘what the hell do we do now?’
16th July. With France now tidied up, Hitler puts out a final ‘offer of peace’ in some turgid speech or other zzzzzzz. Churchill is not interested and Hitler organises a meeting with his military top brass for the 31st July. During that month a German military mission is sent to Spain and the news that comes back is not great…. the Spanish plans for attacking Gibraltar are woeful. Not only that – but the Spanish insist that it is they that will undertake the operation, with Luftwaffe support provided only if the Royal Navy make their presence felt.
Early August. The Spanish present the full shopping list of requirements to Hitler – in return for which, they will join the war. These include:
- Gibraltar, French Morocco, Northwest Algeria, additional territory in Central Africa
- Military supplies by the bucketload. Equipment for the Spanish army to be supplied by the Germans and Italians!
- 400,000 tons of oil
- 500,000 tons of coal
- 200,000 tons of wheat
- 100,000 tons of cotton
and a very, very long list of other items. And of course this is just the start.
13th August. Realising that Britain needs to be taken out, Hitler orders the air war over the UK to destroy the RAF and so make conditions possible for Operation Sealion.
Meanwhile on the 27th August the Germans draw up a treaty to allow the Spanish to enter the war. To say this was unacceptable to the Spanish would be an understatement. Essentially the Spanish would have to wait for territorial questions to be resolved in line with an overall settlement with France, there would be no territorial gain in Central Africa, military and economic aid would be provided (subject to further discussion), Germany would be given bases in one of the Canary Islands, and in Morocco etc etc……
The Spanish and Germans – specifically the Foreign Ministers Serrano and Ribbentrop – spent a good dealing of time the following month building up a hate/hate relationship and generally talking past each other over what each side wanted/was offering. Despite this, during the meeting at Hendaye on the 16th October, both sides appeared to believe that a mutually agreeable outcome was possible….
Unsurprisingly that proves not to be the case.
So. If Hitler is going to agree to Franco’s demands (their counter-'offer' is of course withdrawn) we need to:
a) Work out what France do. I can see no other option than the Vichy territories turning Free French and the fleet trying to escape Toulon.
b) Understand what the effect is on the German economy. How much oil – in barrels – is being asked for? What is the German output of wheat and coal per annum?
c) Know what forces the French have in Algeria and Morocco to counter any Spanish / German moves.
d) Know what is available in Tunisia to threaten Libya?
e) Know what can forces in Senegal and elsewhere do to reinforce French Morocco.
f) Know what immediate assistance can the British provide?
g) Understand the extent to which the British can reinforce Gibraltar - at least initially to delay the enemy?
< Message edited by warspite1 -- 10/10/2015 3:24:44 PM >
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RE: The Italian Spear - 
). 
and certainly not one where basic facts are ignored. When was the switch to the cities? When were the barges ready? An invasion in August? Really? 
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