RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/29/2015 8:26:55 PM

sillyflower

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It's just that posting takes ages as I have to find the old screenshots, decipher my scribbled notes on the turn, try to think of a way of being vaguely interesting but succinct, not least because I type with 1 finger and then hopefully correct all the typos on a system that uses American spelling.

Anyway, AGC

HMMMMMMM

Brian made a bit of a mess of the almost-pocket, including moving the majority of his units out, and broke the small one. Surprisingly, he left the 2 divs in place so I was able to reform it more strongly. It didn't disrupt the rest of the turn.

I formed the bigger pocket as best I could but the panzers have little fuel so there is a weak spot with a lone PzG 3 div on the north side. Fingers crossed it holds.

Losing a bit of momentum here - credit to Brian.

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< Message edited by sillyflower -- 12/29/2015 9:35:43 PM >

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/29/2015 8:37:33 PM

sillyflower

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South

This is a bit more fun.Off-screen, E Kiev and its 3 divs surrender. Gomel, Chernigov, Kirovograd, Nikolaev and Kremenchug are also liberated and Z town's arms and HI factories locked down. There were few defenders south of K Rog and I suspect Brian didn't know how much armour was in reach of the area. 10 divs in a pocket that meets all my rules: most importantly including the full strength cav xx that isolated the pz div in K. Rog

. Waste of a cav xx IMHO just to stop 1 div getting petrol for 1 turn, So I'm even more please that I occupied the city last turn.

The FBD is somewhere in the blob of airbases so most of the armour will be within 20 MPs of the railhead next turn. I could not quite reach D town and its remaining 8 arms factories, but did overrun some airbases.

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< Message edited by sillyflower -- 12/30/2015 5:15:56 PM >

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/30/2015 4:07:53 PM

sillyflower

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Thoughts on T8

Losses 8.4K to 79K which is pretty poor. Far too few Russians but an inevitable consequence of T7's lack of fresh pockets. Air 109 axis

, thanks to refusal of LW fighters to escort bombers in the north, despite all being under same HQ and the very first air mission of the turn. Soviet losses 399 (very good) despite absence of any airbase bombing by Brian, but helped by some airbase overruns. Maybe Brian has decided that the loss ratios in his airbase bombing are too high in my favour. That would be a shame.

A total of 17 russian divs in pockets so next turn should show improvement, but AGC needs to get its act together. One bit of good news. Brian seems to be a bit behind in railing out factories. Poltava and Bryansk empty, but D town has 8 arms, Z town 4 0f each and Ordsomething (next to Bryansk) still has its 3A + 4HI. L'grad's BA10s are never getting out.

Current factory losses are 23 each of arms and HI - despite Pelton's assertion (I assume against a good russian player) that it is impossible to get more than 20 of each under the latest beta. I'm hopeful of more...............but I do need to get the kills back up. It is easier to kill the enemy and then gobble up the terrain than vice versa.

< Message edited by sillyflower -- 12/30/2015 5:24:33 PM >

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/30/2015 5:54:40 PM

M60A3TTS

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From the way Brian is handling Pelton, it looks like you have your hands full. You definitely want to make the most of this summer.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/30/2015 7:17:18 PM

timmyab

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quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower
Current factory losses are 23 each of arms and HI - despite Pelton's assertion (I assume against a good russian player) that it is impossible to get more than 20 of each under the latest beta.

Two turns of mud probably hasn't helped him a lot and because of the loss of momentum that possibly becomes more like a three turn delay. The Soviet player can clear something like 30 arms and 15 HI in that time. Random weather with two unlucky mud turns in July is a game changer.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/30/2015 8:08:35 PM

sillyflower

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I agree which is why we're playing fixed weather, even though in general terms random favours German because he always knows what weather his opponent will get.

I study the Pelton v Brian game with care. A bit scary

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 7:58:40 AM

sillyflower

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quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab

quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower
Current factory losses are 23 each of arms and HI - despite Pelton's assertion (I assume against a good russian player) that it is impossible to get more than 20 of each under the latest beta.

Two turns of mud probably hasn't helped him a lot and because of the loss of momentum that possibly becomes more like a three turn delay. The Soviet player can clear something like 30 arms and 15 HI in that time. Random weather with two unlucky mud turns in July is a game changer.

I have looked at Pelron's post again.It was a general comment only about the effects of the latest patch. Nothing about random weather or his game vs Brian. Maybe he can clarify what he meant if he reads this.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 9:24:54 AM

timmyab

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Surely it can't have been hyperbole

Not from Pelton, I can't believe it

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 1:46:49 PM

mktours

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Interesting game to watch! Thanks for sharing it.
Judged from the AARs Brian G shared, he seemed to have a very unique strategy as Soviet.
First, he write off Lennigrad from start. His priority seems to be Stalino, Moscow, Leningrad, I am curious to know if he sent strong reinforcement from south to leningrad front in this game?
I am very surprise that he could successfully keep Stalino in all his games in 1941. It looks like that he keep the strong troops in the south and evacuate Lennigrad from start, hold it until the port fall.
That is a good thinking, and the merit is that it would eavcuate more industry, and it would not loss many troops in leningrad, this plan works especially well against Pelton, who always set Lenningrad as the first priority for Germany.
The problem of this plan might be Moscow. It is more diffcult to send troops from Stalinno to Moscow than from Leningrad, once the situation become dangerous in the Moscow front.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 2:05:04 PM

timmyab

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The other thing to think about is the early release of 4th pz group and some of the infantry for use elsewhere. The key to a 'Leningrad light' defense is keeping these units in the North for as long as possible. Deception can play a part here.
On the whole I think it's correct to defend the South aggressively against a strong Southern opening under the current patch. You not only gain time to evacuate the industry but also you can move more of it because there are less combat units to rail.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 2:25:03 PM

mktours

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quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab

The other thing to think about is the early release of 4th pz group and some of the infantry for use elsewhere. The key to a 'Leningrad light' defense is keeping these units in the North for as long as possible. Deception can play a part here.
On the whole I think it's correct to defend the South aggressively against a strong Southern opening under the current patch. You not only gain time to evacuate the industry but also you can move more of it because there are less combat units to rail.

To determine to hold Leningrad at all cost is very tempting for many players ( the more confident the player is, the more tempting). but defending Leningrad required a big commitment and once it failed, it often results losing many troops. Also, Germany could just ignore Lennigrad ( I did it in all my games as Germany).
Brian G's defending in Lenningrad is quite smart, he evacuate it early and make sure Germany need the port to kill it.
That way, Germany need more time to get it. It is always good to think before what will happen, so you see things just work as you plan (your opponent didn't foresee it).
I myself always want to fight hard at Lennigrad as soviet, but that requires 1:1=2:1. It is fun, but too risky, even with 1:1=2:1. The tempting is that if Soviet fend off the Germany in Lenningrad, it won a early game. But if the Germany knows the business, Soviet should not do this.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 3:57:50 PM

Peltonx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab

quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower
Current factory losses are 23 each of arms and HI - despite Pelton's assertion (I assume against a good russian player) that it is impossible to get more than 20 of each under the latest beta.

Two turns of mud probably hasn't helped him a lot and because of the loss of momentum that possibly becomes more like a three turn delay. The Soviet player can clear something like 30 arms and 15 HI in that time. Random weather with two unlucky mud turns in July is a game changer.

I have looked at Pelron's post again.It was a general comment only about the effects of the latest patch. Nothing about random weather or his game vs Brian. Maybe he can clarify what he meant if he reads this.

The mud was the game changer.

vs great Russian players random weather is a killer

vs Brian T-3 mud center zone which is basicly 100% of the front.
then again turn 6 mud south which killed my southern thrust as I did a HQBU in 3 corps to hit D?Z - town and over the rivers.

So random weather can hit 3 times in one summer.

Also as far as 42+ goes there are far less mud turns so a big + for Russia

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 3:58:14 PM

Peltonx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab

Surely it can't have been hyperbole Not from Pelton, I can't believe it

trolling?

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 4:00:46 PM

Peltonx

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As morveal stated random weather is a big + for Russia.

all things being equal non-random is the only way to go.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 4:13:40 PM

Peltonx

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quote:

sillyflower

AGN your doing very good.
AGC is ok your not in bad shape IF your moving panzers + 2 infantry Corp from AGN to AGC.
AGS is behind (non-random) ok random

Brian basicly did same thing vs me, but had 2 free turns in south.

41 is all about getting the other guy off balance and keeping him that way.

Brians southern strategy will not work with non-random weather vs a good german player all in in the south, he be playing right into their hands.

You need to roll up as much ground as you can above the Oka and dig in and hold it.

Good game over all silly and nice AAR.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 8:23:57 PM

sillyflower

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Halfway through the fun weeks - T9

I push on. Brian did retreat Totenkopf, but lost over 100 tanks in the process. Revenge was had on his 2 biggest units as per battle report. I could easily have surrounded them, but the need for speed was greater for once. Schisselberg was too heavily defended to attack but the R. Neva was reached. Pushkin fell to Model's I corps whilst the Manstein and elements of 16 Army pushed east to clear the west bank of the Volkov. I decided not to do HQBU on LVI Pz xx as it is close to the rail head and there are no long distance offensives to be had here.

Finns in the far north again fail to make any progress across the river, but they are keeping at least 9 Russian divs up there.

For the learners: I keep as few Finns as possible in contact with the Russians at the end of each turn in order to keep attrition to a minimum. Shortage of young men after the Winter War is the Finns' main weakness. Rest of the Finns go into reserve mode in case Brian starts getting cheeky. He is from New York after all.

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< Message edited by sillyflower -- 12/31/2015 10:04:44 PM >

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 9:05:34 PM

Peltonx

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Once u take Leningrad send your best 6 infantry to the Fin river up north and crack that line.

1. They take it easy
2. it will throw a major monkey wrench in Brians master plan.
3. they cant possibly get to Moscow in time to make a difference.

Brians plan if you look at his past AAR's and mine is to hold hexes west of rivers using them as counter attack spots.
You crack the river line one north and south of Ilmen and his way of grinding you down is sunk = he have to send more units north.

Cost to Germans 0.

This is really a very important things that should be done.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 12/31/2015 10:09:55 PM >

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 9:09:14 PM

Peltonx

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Also after playing allot of games past 43 I see one major screw up on my part.

1. Russian Rifle Corps + sappers will take any finnish hex.
2. Finland will fall earlier then historical IF Russia wants to take it.
3. If your saving finish manpower as I have your wasting it.
4. Pound away in 41+42 because if you don't they will simply surrender = unused manpower.

Same goes for all the minor allies.

Put them up front and alleast get some trade off, saving them to surrender is not a good use of millions of men.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 12/31/2015 9:48:01 PM

chaos45

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after much blood Soviet rifle corps w/sappers will take a hex lol.....and even then alot depends on how strongly manned your finnish forces are.

In our game---things you could have done better with finns----keep all the fins fighting for finland a big start. The only reason I cracked you at leningrad was because you had 2 divisions or so of fins fighting in the german lines to SW instead of putting them in leningrad when u had a chance right before I cut lines of communication. This left you threadbare on that line.

In the north I probably never could have cracked that river line if you had finnish units in reserve activation behind the line or had fresh units to rotate in to replace the battered units and give them a week to rest off fatigue/disruption/damage.

Just my 2 cents on fighting the finns as the soviets and expending some extra effort on them.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 1/1/2016 7:29:15 AM

sillyflower

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Thank you Mr P for your various comments and advices. AGN either has to go north to help the Finns or east gain ground or south to Moscow. The main nerf to the Germans in this game is that there aren't enough of them

. I don't think I'm biased towards one side as I think the same about my Russians in '41 too.

< Message edited by sillyflower -- 3/15/2016 10:40:46 AM >

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 1/1/2016 7:30:41 AM

sillyflower

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T9 centre

Starting to make a bit of progress but mot enough. The tiny 2 div pocket was eliminated and the other one seems to be secure at last! Also started to make a little progress with some grinding, with a few routs but obviously no pockets. Good news is that the rail head is now close enough so that a pz corps is able to do my 2nd HQBU of the game. Hopefully next turn will see the pocket wiped out and some real momentum eastwards. There doesn't seem to be much behind Brian's formidable-looking front line.

2PzG's 36th Pz xxx returns to the centre. Only consists of 1 pz xx, 1 inf and Grossdeutschland. using the opportunity to convert large a large chunk of empty territory in and east of the Pripyat marshes.

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< Message edited by sillyflower -- 1/1/2016 8:49:38 AM >

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 1/1/2016 7:50:52 AM

sillyflower

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South

The juicy K Rog pocket surrendered. I made sure that the cav xx that isolated the panzers in K. Rog on T7 was the first unit to die: not that I'm the sort to hold a grudge. I just don't like horses. Cleared the rest of the Dnepr bulge whilst herding 2 cav xx into a 1 hex pocket. I should also have added an inf xx to that but I messed up and it routed instead

. The pz xxx at K Rog performed an HQBU to be ready for crossing the lower Dnepr in force next turn. I pz div went SE and broke the rail line into the Crimea at Yakimova, and the advanced back the way it had come in order to refuel courtesy of the LW, whilst retaining its bribgehead on over the river. Unfortunately, Brian had removed the rest of D town's arms factories. 6th Army continues to fan out unopposed whilst gobbling up hexes and manpower centres.

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< Message edited by sillyflower -- 1/1/2016 9:30:34 AM >

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 1/1/2016 9:20:44 AM

loki100

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quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

.. I made sure that the cav xx that isolated the panzers in K. Rog on T7 was the first unit to die: not that I'm the sort to hold a grudge. I just don't like horses. ...

quite agree, I tend to end up with a unit that I really really dislike and take great pleasure in its destruction. There is a Prussian hussar regiment in Rise of Prussia that I really loathe and spend ages hunting down.

but more generally, just to add to the praise for the AAR. It is a masterclass, not just in the execution but the way you are setting out your reasons and so on

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 1/1/2016 12:52:19 PM

sillyflower

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You are very kind Loki.

Thought on T9

Like a dog returning to its own vomit, Brian returns to bombing my recce bases. He does destroy 1 a/c, but loses 103 bombers in the process. Long may this continue. Land losses back where I want them at 12K to 154K, with 12 communist divisions destroyed. The HIWIs I will get from this mean that net axis manpower losses are virtually nil. Air losses 87 (same old problem) to 363. I took Morvael's advice and put kluge Hans into OKH, with Kesselring taking over 4th Army.

Pelton's assessment on my progress was interesting. Mine is slightly different because P's had to be based on geographical progress, whilst I have information he does not have. At the end of T9 Russian OOB is bang on 3.9M. At the risk of getting ahead of myself, it was only 10K higher t the end of my T10. Pelton's list of Russian T10 OOBs is:

"Trend Lines of 1.08.00 +
Did not make 10 turns
Mr.X, Oshawatt, Shermanny
Turn 10
Pelton vs Pitmen Stavka OOB: 3,955,000
Pelton vs smokendave Russian OOB: 4,422,000
Pelton vs Huw Jones Stavka OOB: 4,473,000
Pelton vs rkimmi Stavka OOB: 4,548,000
Pelton vs BrianG Stavka OOB: 4,555,000
Pelton vs Chaos45 Stavka OOB: 4,626,000
Pelton vs Callistrid Stavka OOB: 4,552,000
Pelton vs Vigebrand Stavka OOB: 4,382,000"

Apart from the game vs Pitmen, I have reduced the Russian OOB to 500K fewer men. This must be largely down to AGS as that's where the vast majority of the pockets have been. It's AGC that I'm least happy with. I know that some, and possibly all, of P's games have been with random weather, but I doubt the the weather could be responsible for such disparity. I think that is because we approach the problem of the Russian hordes in slightly different ways. He puts more emphasis on taking ground in the early turns, whereas I care more about maximising enemy losses. I'm also aware that a direct comparison between our respective games vs Brian has little if any value (tho' perhaps more schadenfreude

) because P was very badly hit by mud.

All to play for. I need to capitalise on the low soviet OOB to make more ground and capture more factories.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 1/2/2016 3:48:38 PM

HITMAN202

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A few thought and questions.

1) Your FBD snafu (it's actually a military acronym) is no big deal IMO. Yes, if you were playing a cream puff and planning a huge push east of Moscow, then your petals should be a little wilted. But you've got Brian in the ring, so to speak. AGC infantry arrive piecemeal turns 4-7 to the front and a 1 turn delay can make the initial offense thrust toward Moscow more powerful. Again, no big deal.

2) A weakly held AGN can not only lead to the freeing up of units to aid AGC's advance, but also allow the strong Volkov River line and rough defense terrain SE of Lake Ilmen to be taken. This shortens the Axis front during the not too friendly '41 blizzard. Also having a 100 or so miles of AGN covered by the Finns is a big plus. Allows a few more strong Germen units to shelter in cities during the cold.

3) Reducing Soviet OOB in units, not numbers, is the key. Granted, they're closely correlated, but reducing the number of units is what leads to the offense momentum the Germans hope for late fall '41.

4) Hiwi's. David M. I think pockets need to be cleared quickly. If not the high attrition surrounded units suffer will reduced the total captured and subsequently lower the Hiwi's "earned".

5) How aggressively do you use air ground attack as a primer to major attacks ??

6) What criteria do you use to replace division commanders ?? I start with mech first and give a value to each leader by adding their admin + initiative + morale + x2 combat rating. A dog like Keinitz would be a 24. Any low cost AP leader with a value +4 would be a candidate. It's humorous to see how weak are the leaders with last names starting with "K". Also the weakness of the "von"'s show that nobility isn't all cracked up tp be.

< Message edited by HITMAN202 -- 1/2/2016 6:45:00 PM >

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 1/2/2016 4:08:55 PM

sillyflower

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HITMAN202

4) Hiwi's. Dave I think pockets need to be cleared quickly.

If I knew anyone called "Dave" I would ask them to answer your questions.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 1/2/2016 5:45:55 PM

HITMAN202

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My snafu corrected.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 1/2/2016 7:14:45 PM

timmyab

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HITMAN202
It's humorous to see how weak are the leaders with last names starting with "K". Also the weakness of the "von"'s show that nobility isn't all cracked up tp be.

Someone must have forgotten to tell Von Kleist about these two rules :)

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 1/2/2016 8:40:47 PM

HITMAN202

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Of the 7 starting (count em) Corp commander's last name beginning with K, Kempf is the only one worthy to be mentioned. Of the 13 von's that start as Corp commanders 9 should be cashiered. QED ... signed sealed and delivered. von Keist is a stud.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 1/2/2016 9:17:33 PM

sillyflower

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HITMAN202

A few thought and questions.

1) Your FBD snafu (it's actually a military acronym) is no big deal IMO. Yes, if you were playing a cream puff and planning a huge push east of Moscow, then your petals should be a little wilted. But you've got Brian in the ring, so to speak. AGC infantry arrive piecemeal turns 4-7 to the front and a 1 turn delay can make the initial offense thrust toward Moscow more powerful. Again, no big deal.

2) A weakly held AGN can not only lead to the freeing up of units to aid AGC's advance, but also allow the strong Volkov River line and rough defense terrain SE of Lake Ilmen to be taken. This shortens the Axis front during the not too friendly '41 blizzard. Also having a 100 or so miles of AGN covered by the Finns is a big plus. Allows a few more strong Germen units to shelter in cities during the cold.

3) Reducing Soviet OOB in units, not numbers, is the key. Granted, they're closely correlated, but reducing the number of units is what leads to the offense momentum the Germans hope for late fall '41.

4) Hiwi's. David M. I think pockets need to be cleared quickly. If not the high attrition surrounded units suffer will reduced the total captured and subsequently lower the Hiwi's "earned".

5) How aggressively do you use air ground attack as a primer to major attacks ??

6) What criteria do you use to replace division commanders ?? I start with mech first and give a value to each leader by adding their admin + initiative + morale + x2 combat rating. A dog like Keinitz would be a 24. Any low cost AP leader with a value +4 would be a candidate. It's humorous to see how weak are the leaders with last names starting with "K". Also the weakness of the "von"'s show that nobility isn't all cracked up tp be.

1 I have made bigger mistakes before now, but this is the worst of this game and has cost time: the resource the German most lacks in the summer of '41. Anyway, you saw my very early post in which I said I wanted to reach Moscow by T10. No sillier tham Manstein thinking he could get to L'grad in 2 weeks: but Barbarossa was the first time he had commanded armour, and he was a quck learner.

2 Indeed. Taking L'grad is a 'must do' for the Germans IMHO. Doing it early will help to achieve other objectives

3 I agree totally. You are clearly very wise

. OOB level is the common currency for comparisons, which makes sense given that Russian unit losses only matter so much in '41. In '42 it's AP value more than anything else. For the axis, OOB is the important statistic.

4 Good point. I don't know where attrition losses of surrounded units go. Perhaps Morvael/ Denniss can answer if one of them reads this. In any event, I agree that it is generally better to clear pockets quickly. My caveat is: as long as that doesn't slow the forward march too much, unless the pocket is in the way of the advance in which case it needs to go pronto. The other exception can be if the pocket can reasonably be left until Russians lose the free unit return.

5 This is something I whinge about every week. Can't do much without losing lots of bombers, and I don't like boosting his fighter units.In the north, fighters sometimes won't fly at all and will never fly a second time even if I still have some who have not flown yet. Sanity is apparently going to return with this month's patch but that will be a little late for me. Still, not an issue to justify a pause in the game.

6 I can't replace div commanders. Assuming I don't have higher priorities for my APs, corps commanders replaced on basis of need ie which corps are going to be doing the most fighting, or because the commander just needs replacing because of low ratings. An example of the former is my move of Manstein to the other Pz xxx in PzG4 on about T4.I assess commanders on the ratings other than politics and the troop type they will not be commanding. I don't use a mathematical formula, but I understand that between admin and initiative, former is more useful for attacking because of a bigger effect on MPs, and initiative when you need reserve activations more which is usually on defence.

I can never remember names so I will have to take your observations about those on trust. Did your family drop the 'von' when it moved to the USA, Herr Timm? At least the vons and the Ks get better ratings than the H's Hitler + Himmler

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(in reply to HITMAN202)

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