RE: Spain always joins Axis

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RE: Spain always joins Axis - 12/19/2016 4:13:48 PM

Goodmongo

Posts: 346
Joined: 9/22/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: oxford_guy

I was thinking this too, Sweeden would be a better long-term ally for the Axis, perhaps?

As Germany I usually don't mess with diplomacy, but if I get a message that Sweden is moving to the Allies I sink in 2-3 chits worth ASAP.

(in reply to OxfordGuy3)

Post #: 31

RE: Spain always joins Axis - 12/19/2016 4:32:37 PM

mavraamides

Posts: 447
Joined: 4/1/2005
Status: offline

Strange, I'm in my 3rd game as Allies and Spain only went Axis in one. I did lose Gibraltar in that one. Of course a counter invasion is also an option. You could try to push inland from Gibraltar and make a beach head that would be far more defensible or even go as far as invading in the North and drawing some forces off. But yeah, just trying to statically hold 'the rock' is a lost cause against a determined invasion.

BTW, if you do lose Gibraltar but still hold the Suez you can go the long way around Africa to get to the Med. Inconvenient but only costs you a couple more turns if you are using the double click moves. Plus the canal acts as a great escape path for any naval units that get in trouble which you may not have the MPP's to repair right away.

(in reply to OxfordGuy3)

Post #: 32

RE: Spain always joins Axis - 12/19/2016 4:34:59 PM

BillRunacre

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Joined: 7/22/2013
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Just to add that it should be hard for the Axis to get Spain via diplomacy, but not impossible, even if the UK counters, so I would be very interested in seeing any games where it seems to do it very easily.

_____________________________

(in reply to OxfordGuy3)

Post #: 33

RE: Spain always joins Axis - 12/19/2016 5:28:30 PM

Goodmongo

Posts: 346
Joined: 9/22/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Runacre

Just to add that it should be hard for the Axis to get Spain via diplomacy, but not impossible, even if the UK counters, so I would be very interested in seeing any games where it seems to do it very easily.

It really only happens if the AI Axis has 3-6 chits (3 Germany, 3 Italy) and the allies do nothing. 30% chance per turn for a 10-15% increase. In both games that it happened against me (I was allies) was because the AI put MPP there (I gave the AI a MPP boost) and I ignored Spain and lost NA in one game. 30% for 300 MPP can move it fast.

(in reply to BillRunacre)

Post #: 34

RE: Spain always joins Axis - 12/19/2016 8:06:28 PM

Hartmann

Posts: 888
Joined: 11/28/2000
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Goodmongo

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Runacre

Just to add that it should be hard for the Axis to get Spain via diplomacy, but not impossible, even if the UK counters, so I would be very interested in seeing any games where it seems to do it very easily.

It really only happens if the AI Axis has 3-6 chits (3 Germany, 3 Italy) and the allies do nothing. 30% chance per turn for a 10-15% increase. In both games that it happened against me (I was allies) was because the AI put MPP there (I gave the AI a MPP boost) and I ignored Spain and lost NA in one game. 30% for 300 MPP can move it fast.

This also explains why I have yet to see it: As Axis, I only do diplomacy to counter the Allies (like with Finland), and as the Allies, I always see to it that the Axis don't get Spain. I mean, if I see a message about Spain or Franco being "impressed", I always check the diplo tab and do something about it if necessary.

(in reply to Goodmongo)

Post #: 35

RE: Spain always joins Axis - 12/20/2016 8:51:30 AM

The Land

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Joined: 2/19/2010
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Interestingly, having taken Gibraltar, Spain then decided to declare war on Portugal - in roughly January 42 - which was quite handy as I already had the whole American army mid-Atlantic, and Portugal became a nice country-sized beachhead with friendly ports, while the British landed at Cadiz to re-take Gibraltar. I suspect Spain is better territory for the Allies than Italy or Greece as it's quite large and there is plenty of space for manouevre.

The AI is having a hard time defending Spain - they have are trying to be quite aggressive, but in a very piecemeal manner and without enough resource, meaning that individual counters keep getting cut off and destroyed - it's cost the Axis 6-8 units wiped out without cadre so far, and unless they move troops away from the Russian front Madrid can't be too far off falling.

Which is good, as I think I'm messing up the Eastern Front - the Germans are in Leningrad and it feels like I've hardly inflicted any casualties....

(in reply to Hartmann)

Post #: 36

RE: Spain always joins Axis - 12/20/2016 1:31:00 PM

vaalen

Posts: 387
Joined: 1/13/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Goodmongo

Two points on Spain joining the Axis.

1) If you don't want it you better invest diplomacy against it. So at the first warning spend the MPP to reverse or stop it.
2) If Spain does change then so what. Makes for an easy invasion site for the US to land on in early 1943.

Played a game as US/UK and Spain when Axis. So I invaded Spain and then easily crept up into France.

First, as the allies, I invest the maximum amount of Mpps to influence Spain as soon as possible. It does not stop them.

Second, to have Spain enter the war with this frequency is not historical, and the AI has trouble handling an allied invasion coming from Spain. In my latest game, Spain, invaded Portugal, its fellow Fascist nation, and I had a chance to get a free port in Lisbon and am fighting in Spain. In the meantime, the Axis continue to build the Atlantic Wall, in France.

(in reply to Goodmongo)

Post #: 37

RE: Spain always joins Axis - 12/20/2016 10:53:06 PM

ILCK

Posts: 422
Joined: 6/26/2004
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: The Land

Interestingly, having taken Gibraltar, Spain then decided to declare war on Portugal - in roughly January 42 - which was quite handy as I already had the whole American army mid-Atlantic, and Portugal became a nice country-sized beachhead with friendly ports, while the British landed at Cadiz to re-take Gibraltar. I suspect Spain is better territory for the Allies than Italy or Greece as it's quite large and there is plenty of space for manouevre.

The AI is having a hard time defending Spain - they have are trying to be quite aggressive, but in a very piecemeal manner and without enough resource, meaning that individual counters keep getting cut off and destroyed - it's cost the Axis 6-8 units wiped out without cadre so far, and unless they move troops away from the Russian front Madrid can't be too far off falling.

Which is good, as I think I'm messing up the Eastern Front - the Germans are in Leningrad and it feels like I've hardly inflicted any casualties....

Yeah Spain is a great target for amphib assaults. Easy jest not sure the Spanish forces are worth the cost to defend. The AI sends all their main forces east and what is left are easy pickings.

(in reply to The Land)

Post #: 38

RE: Spain always joins Axis - 12/21/2016 3:12:51 PM

Goodmongo

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Joined: 9/22/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: vaalen

First, as the allies, I invest the maximum amount of Mpps to influence Spain as soon as possible. It does not stop them.

Have you or I played 10,000 games? No so our evidence is anecdotal at best. It stops it every time for me and never for you. Both will be proved wrong as it will sometimes stop it and other times not.

But here is the kicker. We know for a fact that if neither side invested in diplomacy Spain would NEVER join the Axis. It simply can't as the events do not provide enough changes to do it. So it comes down to diplomacy.

UK, Germany and Italy can have 3 chits with 5% chance. USA can have 3 chits with 7%. If all sides do the max that means it's impossible for Spain to join. 36% allies vs. 30% axis. So once USA joins war if you really invest all chits then it is impossible to happen.

Now the max chance before USA joins war is 15%/turn if both Germany and Italy go max. You can do the math based on the events to see if from 1940 through end of 1941 what the real percentage chance will end up being.

But to claim that it always happened to you even when you ALWAYS go max against it doesn't mean squat. If you do this 10K times or show the math with all event variables then you might have a case.

(in reply to vaalen)

Post #: 39

RE: Spain always joins Axis - 12/27/2016 9:07:41 PM

The Land

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Joined: 2/19/2010
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Another data point - my next game as Allies, and Spain is at 81% Axis by July 1941. Luckily I've seen this coming and am just in the process of reinforcing Gibraltar and planning my attack on Tangier...

(in reply to Goodmongo)

Post #: 40