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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/13/2018 8:34:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/22/45

NoPac: An interesting clash around Kushiro today that demonstrates the difference between playing the game and playing the war.

Important Allied reinforcements landed at Kushiro. I knew the landing would likely be contested by enemy air. I didn't wish to risk major fighter battles, so rather than posting CAP, I used my smallest, least valuable merchants. Sure enough, Erik's bombers sortied, sinking more than a dozen ships here and close by, most of them low-value (plus a DE, Aussie DD, and a few higher value xAKs).

The Allies succeeded in what I need to achieve, getting the troops ashore without expending the one thing I didn't wish to expend (fighters). But Erik won the op from a gaming standpoint, as my ships cumalatively were worth meaningful points.

From a longer-range gaming standpoint, I'm satisfied that it offered the most efficient way to handle a dicey mission.

Many layers to the onion.





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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/13/2018 8:39:09 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/14/2018 12:46:52 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		I just thought of that "peeling back the layers of the onion" phrase the other night while I was...peeling back the layers of an onion. The outer layer beneath the skin had started to turn, you see. Like all produce around here, it was a powerful onion. It made me think that the best (and perhaps original?) use of the phrase is in reference to peeling back a layer that makes you cry, only to have to peel back another tear-jerking layer. In essence, one bad thing after another.

I don't think that's what you meant, though...

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 10:30:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/23/45

As a new turn (a new day) begins, the biggest question is whether Erik is withdrawing from, or reinforcing, Bihoro.

Kushiro: Lots of Japanese sweeps over Kushiro find no CAP. The airways are clear for Japanese strike aircraft to finish off the little transports that unloaded a bunch of engineers and an AA unit.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 10:37:10 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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No-Longer-Contested Hex: Erik's bombers are targeting the small but useful units here; beating them up badly. I'm weighing whether or not to intervene, based upon some more significant needs that may or may not occur over the next few days.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 10:40:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Etorofu: The past two days, it's been Ki-83s vs. F4U-1s and P-39s. My obsolete aircraft have actually held their own. This turn, I'll evaluate this more carefully - is it worth coming out 1:2 or 1:3 in these attacks if it keeps the Ki-83s busy and somewhat tuckered out?




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 10:45:30 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Bihoro: A large, well-coordinated raid with lots of heavies at 10k against no fighter opposition does very little damage.

Regular readers have seen this alot. I have too, of course. And it mirrors the at-sea bombardments. Simply tepid results.

This will factor heavily in my decision about how to handle Bihoro should Erik elect to make a stand here.

My bomber pilots are very experienced, high morale, etc. I cannot figure out why they preform so poorly. AA has something to do with it, but sheesh.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 10:49:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Bihoro: Ditto this raid. There were lots more small raids with proportionally small results.

If my air force and navy have trouble denting Bihoro, I think my decision is made. I won't fight here if Erik makes a stand.

I have other places I want to go. I don't want to blunt my air force against an (apparently) hardened target, nor get tied down here indefinitely in a place Erik wants to fight and apparently can.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 10:52:12 PM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
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Status: offline 		Heavy rain might be the issue.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 10:54:53 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Kuriles: The ingressing herd is escorted by a number of carriers, whose strike aircraft finish off a bunch of ACMs in the upper islands.

I forgot to stand down my strike aircraft. I'm glad Erik didn't have CAP up that might have made me blush.

The ingressing herd is about seven hexes or so east of the egressing herd and Death Star.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 10:56:37 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

Heavy rain might be the issue.


I didn't even take note of that, Bill. Thanks for pointing it out.

I know that weather has a decided affect on whether aircraft will sortie/fly missions, but (dumb question, I admit) does it also have an material impact on bombing results?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 11:05:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Kushiro: Enemy resistance eliminated.

After mulling things over for days, I'm satisfied that this base is secure even though I don't plan to post CAP over it (my fighters would get chewed on, which I cannot afford - I can only afford to fight in places where I have an advantage).

Erik doesn't like attacking bases with good AA, and I think he'll be leery of deploying ships. His navy is too weak to chance mishaps against mines or PT boats or whatever I might send here from time to time.









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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 11:11:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Bihoro: Erik has reinforced with 4th Div., a mixed brigade and an amphibious brigade.

I'm mulling things over a bit more, but I've about decided to pull my army back to Kushiro. It will take some hits on the way, but I'll use DS if necessary (though hopefully not for a week or so, as DS needs to replenish aircraft, etc.)

I absolutely believe Erik made the right call here. I was hoping to run a successful bluff that might persuade him to abandon the base. I thought I had about a 50% chance of succeeding. Had bombardment results and air attacks been as strong as I'd expected, I think it would've worked.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 11:29:38 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		[quote12.1 WEATHER
In addition to these weather zones, the map has been divided into 9 quadrants on the Weather
Map. Each of these weather quadrants will generate a different weather forecast for all hexes
in their quadrant. Offensive Missions can be aborted after all preparations have been made,
but prior to take-off, due to bad weather over the air unit’s base or over the intended target. A
message will display if this occurs. The aircraft will not fly another Mission during that Air Strike
phase. The weather at each base or target is determined each air phase, and is not linked to
prior weather at that location. Each base is checked each air phase for its weather independent
of all other bases. Each day a weather forecast is generated for each hex on the map based
on the forecast in the hex’s quadrant. Also the forecasted weather in the current hex is given
in the menu bar at top and for a base hex on the base orders screen. This weather forecast
impacts the check that is done at each base each phase to see if the base will have weather
bad enough to cause a cancellation of Missions. The forecast levels from best weather to
worst are clear, partly cloudy, overcast, rain (snow in cold zones in winter), and thunderstorms
(blizzard in cold zones in winter).
If the Advanced Weather Effects option is switched Off, the weather forecasts will always be
Partly Cloudy (except for turn 1 which will be clear). If it is switched On, a different weather
forecast will be generated every Day: Clear, Partly Cloudy, Overcast, Rain, Thunderstorms (turn
1 is always clear). The worse the weather that day, the greater the likelihood of an air Mission
missing the target, or even of being grounded before takeoff. With advanced weather, the
weather forecast in each quadrant from day to day will generally change slowly (moving only
up or down one level), but sometimes it can change dramatically from one day to the next.quote]

I will look some more elsewhere as well. But between the weather and the fortifications, you may not be able to do much.

As far as the bombing in the clear hex, do you have any extra AAA units that can go in? With radar, that should hurt his bombers.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/15/2018 11:40:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I don't have any AA to spare on Hokkaido, but I'd spare them anyway if they could reach the hex in time. But the road system in this corner is abysmal. It would take 8 or 9 days for the AA unit to move and then as long to return. I'd rather use LRCAP or Death Star CAP if things get really dicey for my army retiring from Bihoro.

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Post #: 3254
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/16/2018 12:17:33 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		Any designs on bringing the giant AA Regiments from India...eventually? May be too late now, the war might be over by the time they get there.

RE: the Ki-83's - don't forget that even if trading 1:2 or 1:3 is worthwhile to you in terms of opportunity cost on airframes alone, allowing his (presumably elite) pilots to get (even more) elite from experience gains from kills may swing it into the "not worthwhile on most days" column.

Also, being SR-3, the Ki-83 can't really sweep more than 3 days in a row.

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Post #: 3255
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/16/2018 12:48:17 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks, Lokasenna. I hadn't taken experience gain into consideration. Too many layers to the onion for me to keep count.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/16/2018 12:51:32 AM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/16/2018 9:38:36 AM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline 		The Kiwi's have some large AA brigades as well if you ever bought them out

_____________________________

Hans


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/16/2018 1:55:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That "expendables TF" (low-value xAP and xAK) brought in a big Kiwi unit to Kushiro just a few days ago. Kushiro will rely almost exclusively on AA for defense against strike aircraft. My fighters cannot go toe-to-toe that far forward, except under occasional and very specific circumstances.

Alot of Allied AA is in NoPac, with more inbound. Since I have to concentrate my fighters for self-preservation, alot of the AA defense is left to flak units.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/16/2018 2:38:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/23/45

NoPac: The Allies have a massive base of operations in the Kuriles, Sikhalin and Hokkaido. The navy is magnificent and dwarfs (sort of) the enemy naval forces. Air, sea and land forces have just engaged in a superb op that went pretty much as planned, wresting Kushiro from enemy clutches.

And yet....what a slog this is. What a grueling campaign. And I'm fighting defensively more than offensively, really.

All that becasue Japan controls the air war, except one or two spots that I have supremacy (over Death Star and, arguably, over Shikuka).

For the next few weeks, I'll concentrate on extracting my army from Bihoro and attending to the remaining Kuriles held by Japan. While that's going on Allied troops are prepping for the next next big thing. I like the plan but it has real, real challenges. The biggest question is - can I afford to leave NoPac to look out for itself for a month or more, or might Erik manage to overrun some of my holdings?







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/16/2018 4:36:17 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		The combination of high durability Allied LCUs (lots of built-in artillery/AA/etc.), anemic payloads on Japanese bombers, effectiveness of Allied AA weaponry, and low durability of Japanese bombers all add up to my conclusion that it's not necessary to waste CAP time over LCUs for the sake of the LCUs. With supply and a properly mixed force, Allied units post-1943 can take care of themselves vs. bombers. CAP/LRCAP should only be used when shooting down enemy planes is the goal.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/16/2018 4:44:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Loka, I agree. Unfortunately, that probably doesn't apply here. This army landed in a non-base hex and is heavy on combat squads and light on arty and AA guns. It'll be more prone to taking damage than usual. I do think it's large enough to absorb a lot of punishment without veering into dangerous "destroyed" territory, but I'll have to monitor that...and keep Death Star ready, if needed.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/17/2018 9:00:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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NoPac: Today is the eve of the invasion of Paramushiro. At Hokkaido, Allied fighters and bombers test some new tactics, trying to find targets protected by 2nd tier enemy fighters. It was pretty successful. And Erik's bombers tear into defenseless Allied units outside Kushiro, but on this particular day he used a lot of firepower against small units, while leaving my larger stacks alone. Tomorrow will be a different story, I'm sure.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/17/2018 9:18:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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SEAC: A rare post from a theater other than NoPac, as a major Allied invasion to take place tomorrow.

This is about a month ahead of schedule. I've been steaming invasion TFs in the Andaman Sea, back and forth, up and down, trying to keep Erik interested in the area and eventually lulling him into the idea that it was all a ruse to draw him down this way.

He's taken notice, ramped up patrols and recon, and posted some fighters that got chewed up by Allied sweeps.

I planned to continue this for another month unless I got what seemed like an opening. Today, the Allied invasion TFs steamed to within four hexes of the invasion target (Mergui) without apparent strong response.

I think it's 50/50 that a KB is in this area, but I came up with a plan that I think works while risking an acceptable number ofgood ships. The enemy garrison at Mergui is pretty small. The Allied invasion force is large. It will proceed to the beaches with relatively light cover (mainly, four CVEs). If enemy carriers aren't available, I don't think Erik will commit bombers in large numbers, due to fears of a CAP trap. IF carriers are here, he'll throw everything he has at my ships. I'll lose a bunch that I'm willing to lose in exchange for seizing a forward base that (may) unhinge his defenses in the Rangoon area.

Allied light infantry will also land a hex N of Mergui, to prevent rapid reinforcement via the good coastal road. No rail serves Mergui.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/17/2018 10:57:01 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm in negotiations with another long-time player to start a new game. I started casting around about a week ago, looking for indications that an old-timer might be it he market. I think I found one, though we haven't finalized things yet. The game with Obvert is getting late enough, and its tempo has slowed enough, that it seems like a good time to start a new match. It's been six years since I last started a 12/7/41 game.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/17/2018 11:50:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/25/45

This is D-Day for important invasions of Paramushiro and Mergui. I'm about to learn that my hunches were on target - that I have been basing my plans on solid information....but that I sometimes forget important details in the execution. IE, this game has a powerful way of reminded me of my limitations, even when I think things are unrolling marvelously.

Paramushiro: Another tepid Allied naval bombardment.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/17/2018 11:53:41 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Mergui: This TF doesn't have spotter planes but does pretty well - no shore gun opposition and probably not uber forts. The only enemy unit identified is a mixed regiment. Recon showed whatever is here has few guns, so I'm not anticipating a big fight.




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/17/2018 11:56:00 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/18/2018 12:01:09 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/25/45

Asahikawa: A modest number of 4EB and 2EB target this airfield and resources. Six Irvings were on CAP, disrupting the first small inbound raids, which did no damage. This and later ones did modest damage. Also, a few B-29 squadrons didn't get reset (my first "oops" of the turn) and scored a few manpower hits at Hakodate.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/18/2018 12:05:14 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Mergui: The first of many amphibious TFs arrives at the beachhead. There are no enemy shore guns to speak of, and no enemy combat TFs, mines or subs. The landings seem to go well. The key, here, is to get as many troops ashore as possible in case KB arrives to ravage the fleet. The enemy garrison seems small, so a good opening landing may be sufficient even if my ships get clobbered.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/18/2018 12:14:08 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/25/45

Uruppu Sweep: Mindful of the opportunity cost discussion yesterday, I think results like this are acceptable or favorable. This may be Erik's best fighter going up against a variety of Allied fighters. The Mustangs are a newly arrived squadron with decent but not elite pilots. I hope to get a feel for what he's doing so that, later, I can cross him up by bringing in squadrons that can perform better. But right now they're getting some much-needed rest.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/18/2018 12:17:23 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/25/45

Outside Kurshiro: Again, Erik uses lots of his best fighters to sweep over the Allied units outside Kushiro. He's expecting me to post LRCAP, which his sweepers would likely chew up, but I didn't. Instead, the Allied fighters and bombers are mostly focusing on Asahikawa industry today, if weather permits.






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