Anachro
Posts: 2506
Joined: 11/23/2015 From: The Coastal Elite Status: offline
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So, there are a couple of things to consider here from my perspective: 1. Strength and Potential Intervention of KB1: KB1 has been roving around for at least 10-12 days and has traveled a decent little distance; I am unsure as to its fuel situation. It could very well be that he needs to fuel up at Truk first and can not make a run down south, or, more likely, at least not a flank speed run. That said it's not a good idea to bet on this and so we have to assume that he has the fuel to move south. Moreover, the most recent estimate of KB1's strength is most likely not an accurate one, given the fighter/bomber estimates from previous days. Thus, in prudence, we should assume at least decent fighter coverage and strike power from KB1. 2. John's Psychological State and Portents for Situation of KB2 and Intentions: John sent me an email with the most recent turn that I think points to him being a bit depressed as to the results, thereby giving away that perhaps the damage to the carriers of KB2 was a bit worse than what might be expected from the turn replay. In the end, four fleet CVs did receive 3 semi-armor piercing bomb hits apiece: CV Akagi, Amagi, Soryu, and Hiryu. One has sunk, but the others might not be able to move very far and were last seen on fire with some heavy smoking; and I don't think any of these carriers are particularly well-armored. It could well be that at least 1-2 carriers from KB2 will not be able to move very far and might be in range of strikes even if I don't move aggressively east or north. That said, this is tempered by the risky gambits John might try out of desperation to save his carriers: 1) splitting off an SCTF from KB2 to try and hit my carriers in a night action; 2) flank speed south with SCTF's from Truk and KB1. Nonetheless, John's email to me coming immediately after this turn strikes me as someone not very happy at all with the results. What does that tell me about the situation? Furthermore, his mindset will affect his decision-making. quote:
Just wanted to send this Posting I made earlier on my AAR. Glad I made the decision prior to the last 2-3 turns. Hello All. My match with Sean is rolling on and we're in late-August 43. I have decided to stop my AAR due to a new match I will be starting later this month. There is no way that I can have two campaigns and TWO AARs running at the same time. Do not have time in life for all that. Feel like it is better to stop this AAR right now before something happens that cheats you guys when reading. TRUST ME though you WANT the AAR in the next match! There will be tons of excitement and a huge following for each of our AARs! Anybody wanna take a guess??? Naaaaa...that isn't fair to ask. It is gonna be EPIC! 3. My A/C and Fuel Situation: Finally, my own carriers are in decent shape, if not amazing. Most, of the A/C losses from the past turn were in my bombers. This means I have close to my full fighter complement, which is 445 fighters currently. In addition to this, I still have 284 dive bombers and torpedo bombers. This means I can pack a decent punch while having enough CAP to fend off some good attempts to hit my carriers by air. I could probably even risk a reduced CAP on the morrow, throwing more fighters into escort duty. I have a replenishment carrier at Milne Bay carrying additional TBs and Hellcats. Beyond that, my fuel situation is pretty decent for all of my carrier TFs and very good for two of them. I should not run out of fuel any time soon, but I won't try flank speed runs either. Thoughts: With the above in mind, it becomes a question of how far I move towards the danger of the risky moves John might try. I'm more inclined to not move too far. If I move 8 hexes east north-east, for instance, I should have good strike range against a potentially crippled KB2. if that's the case. while also remaining 19 hexes from KB1's current position and 16 hexes from Truk. This is one potential move, as there are others. I think the main thing is to try and avoid a surface action like Spruance immediately after Midway (and no, I don't think this is a Midway situation for Japan...yet) while retaining a good chance of a second day strike, cognizant of KB1's CAP and strike power, as well as the significant IJN surface forces nearby. I don't want to turn a good event into a disaster. I could split off some vessels from all three TFs to create an accompanying surface TF. I could bring up some of my surface ships from Milne Bay, etc. So many things to ponder as I approach this turn...
< Message edited by Anachro -- 12/2/2019 9:51:56 AM >
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