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RE: bill Brings Banzai - 7/3/2019 5:24:15 PM

BillBrown

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I must be more careful of mine, here is a screen shot from August 1943. All my squadrons are full with 4 extra sirframes.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 271

RE: bill Brings Banzai - 7/3/2019 5:46:56 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
Reducing the Allies submarine inventory is a minor speed bump that will not be keenly felt.

I'm not sure I agree with this. From the perspective of late 1945, you've got more submarines than targets-like IRL. But this isn't about a ledger at the end of 1945. This is about submarines that can act as your eyes and ears and take direct action in 1941-1942. Such a complete loss defangs any Allied reconnaisance / interdiction during the time of Japanese expansion in the DEI/Philippines.

A Manila strike guts the US Asiatic Fleet at a stroke and causes the DEI defense to implode quickly. And the Allies are in a much worse position to forestall Philippines landings, investment of Java and Sumatra and so forth. To me, that's a powerful argument that's probably worth a few hundred VPs left 'on the table'.

But...and it's a big but: It's up the Japanese player to maximize the benefits of the Manila strike with follow-on shock and awe. They've got to be in a position to accelerate the historical timetable because the opposition is on its heels. If they don't or they can't, then the opportunity has been (partially) squandered.

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Post #: 272

Aloha - 7/3/2019 6:55:39 PM

durnedwolf

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Hi Bill,

I want to extend my congratulations on your naval success; good show. :-)

Using Scenario 2, I like the PI strikes against Manila also. Another added feature to having KB near Manila at the open of the game is that it's a fairly quick jog west to support operations against Singapore.

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I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to BillBrown)

Post #: 273

RE: Aloha - 7/3/2019 8:19:57 PM

BillBrown

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OK. I might be a fool, but we are going to restart. I do not expect him to leave his CVs hanging out this game.

So, I will do Manila as opposed to Pearl Harbor. How best to do that? KB in one group to the West of Manila?
Split KB with half East and half West? Must think about this.

(in reply to durnedwolf)

Post #: 274

RE: bill Brings Banzai - 7/3/2019 8:38:56 PM

Anachro

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From: The Coastal Elite
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There is no reason this game needs to be restarted. First, you are both learning your respective sides and whatever successes you have had early on and failures for him will be made up by failures and successes elsewhere over the course of the game, not including the difficulty of managing the Japanese economy for the first time. Moreover, the Allies can still very much fight early on, even with the carrier losses sustained, given that they pick and choose their battles. It's not like your opponent doesn't get additional carriers prior to the arrival of the Essex's in '43, he does, and then beyond that his material production will more than make up for any losses taken. The only carriers you get until your Unryu's, etc. arrive in later '43 or '44 are the Hiyo-class "carriers." This is by no means a lost cause.

In the mean time, this game will be a great learning opportunity for him because of his earlier failures, probably more than it would have been if he had not taken such losses. He'll have to focus on his ground combat, his LoC, his LBA cover, etc - these are all great places to learn. The allies don't need their carriers to win. Beyond that, there's the harm done to his reputation were he to give up so easily, which it'd be better to avoid.

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Post #: 275

RE: Bill Brings Banzai - 7/3/2019 8:44:01 PM

BillBrown

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Well, I gave him the choices and I have to abide by his choice. I agree with you Anachro that he could learn a lot from fighting out of a hole, but I have agreed.

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Post #: 276

RE: Bill Brings Banzai - 7/3/2019 8:49:09 PM

Anachro

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Sudden Carrier Loss Syndrome is a terrible thing and often these decisions are made in the heat of the moment by the one that suffers from it.

Shame for us as the situation presented is more interesting than your standard game.

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Post #: 277

RE: bill Brings Banzai - 7/3/2019 8:49:18 PM

Mike Solli

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Personally, I prefer hitting Pearl with KB. I look at it from the Allied fighter perspective (which is what I want to destroy). The Air Forces in the DEI are doomed. There's just too much excellent land based Japanese air power there. I want to put a dent in the US Air Force stationed at Pearl. If you go for Manila, the Hawaiian Air Force is untouched.

In addition, with no Japanese carriers in the Pacific, the US carriers (even with their woefully unprepared pilots) can stop just about anything the Japanese try. Wake will not fall. The Japanese will have a difficult time just reinforcing the possessions they have at the beginning of the war.

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Post #: 278

RE: bill Brings Banzai - 7/3/2019 9:04:53 PM

jdsrae

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Personally, I prefer hitting Pearl with KB. I look at it from the Allied fighter perspective (which is what I want to destroy). The Air Forces in the DEI are doomed. There's just too much excellent land based Japanese air power there. I want to put a dent in the US Air Force stationed at Pearl. If you go for Manila, the Hawaiian Air Force is untouched.

In addition, with no Japanese carriers in the Pacific, the US carriers (even with their woefully unprepared pilots) can stop just about anything the Japanese try. Wake will not fall. The Japanese will have a difficult time just reinforcing the possessions they have at the beginning of the war.

I agree, but...
Even when Bill�s opponent sees the KB in the Phillipines do you think he will risk his CVs west of PH again?!
Will be interesting to see what he does with them in v2 but I�m tipping his focus will be on trying not to lose them.

Congrats on your first win as Japan Bill.

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Post #: 279

RE: bill Brings Banzai - 7/3/2019 9:39:30 PM

mind_messing

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Manila is absolutely not worth it IMO.

A concentrated air campaign using the KB against PH from day 1 can (and does) cause a deep dent in Allied assets in the early war.

It's not just ships either: fighters, bombers and patrol planes can all be damaged severely at Pearl.

I'd look into follow-on strikes for Dec 8th and 9th as well, TBH.

(in reply to jdsrae)

Post #: 280

RE: bill Brings Banzai - 7/3/2019 9:48:05 PM

Chickenboy

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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

In addition, with no Japanese carriers in the Pacific, the US carriers (even with their woefully unprepared pilots) can stop just about anything the Japanese try. Wake will not fall. The Japanese will have a difficult time just reinforcing the possessions they have at the beginning of the war.

Sorry Mike, but you're off the mark here. Just because the KB strikes Manila and helps out in the DEI (or a part of it does) doesn't mean that it has vacated the Pacific forevermore. I usually have KB (+/- Kaga) shimmy on down to support the assault on Rabaul, Wake and points South. It can be done readily.

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Post #: 281

RE: Aloha - 7/3/2019 9:53:24 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown
So, I will do Manila as opposed to Pearl Harbor. How best to do that? KB in one group to the West of Manila?
Split KB with half East and half West? Must think about this.

I'll keep KB intact and ESE of Luzon, within easy striking distance of Manila and other ports on Luzon. After the requisite bashing of Manila, you can pare off the slower Kaga and have it hook up with your CVL/CVEs in the area for a mobile strike force in the area. These forces, plus your surface fleet, are sufficient to the task of sweeping the Allied chaff out of the way of your invasion convoys.

In the meantime, KB (- Kaga) can escort or precede your usual littany of South Pacific / Wake / Guam / etc. TFs en route to their targets.

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Post #: 282

RE: Aloha - 7/3/2019 10:11:33 PM

BillBrown

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Well, it looks things have changed. Keith has requested that we continue on. So, no restart. I am getting confused.

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Post #: 283

RE: Aloha - 7/3/2019 10:25:59 PM

Anachro

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Heat of the moment from SCLS is strong. Perhaps the cooling off period has started.

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Post #: 284

RE: Aloha - 7/3/2019 11:18:11 PM

jdsrae

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Well, I take back my congratulations then.
Maybe all those clicks setting up mid and late war aircraft weren�t wasted after all!

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Post #: 285

RE: Aloha - 7/4/2019 9:25:02 PM

BillBrown

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This game is definitely over. I just got this email:

I've been reflecting on the game up until now and come to the conclusion that due to changes in my personal circumstances over the past few weeks and resulting other demands, I don't have the capacity to give this game the time it needs and you, as a decent opponent, the commitment you deserve. Given the work put in to set it up (particularly by you), I've been trying to play on and keep things moving but the result is I've been rushing it and missing key things I should be paying attention to (besides the errors out of ignorance/misunderstanding of the rules). The results are only too evident. I don't think my situation is likely to change in the foreseeable future and I don't think it would be fair on you to try and continue in these circumstances.

So as you might be able to salvage something from this, attached is the end of orders file for the previous turn, in case someone else wants to pick this up. I haven't changed anything, so you should be able to re-run it and get an approximation of what happened. The password is Player2.

Please accept my sincere apologies for how this has worked out. I wish you well in your future games as Japanese player and hope you are able to find an opponent more worthy of you.

Regards

Keith

(in reply to jdsrae)

Post #: 286

RE: Aloha - 7/4/2019 9:29:55 PM

Zorch

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

This game is definitely over. I just got this email:

I've been reflecting on the game up until now and come to the conclusion that due to changes in my personal circumstances over the past few weeks and resulting other demands, I don't have the capacity to give this game the time it needs and you, as a decent opponent, the commitment you deserve. Given the work put in to set it up (particularly by you), I've been trying to play on and keep things moving but the result is I've been rushing it and missing key things I should be paying attention to (besides the errors out of ignorance/misunderstanding of the rules). The results are only too evident. I don't think my situation is likely to change in the foreseeable future and I don't think it would be fair on you to try and continue in these circumstances.

So as you might be able to salvage something from this, attached is the end of orders file for the previous turn, in case someone else wants to pick this up. I haven't changed anything, so you should be able to re-run it and get an approximation of what happened. The password is Player2.

Please accept my sincere apologies for how this has worked out. I wish you well in your future games as Japanese player and hope you are able to find an opponent more worthy of you.

Regards

Keith

This game is dead. Congratulations!

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Post #: 287

Congratulations - 7/4/2019 10:29:45 PM

durnedwolf

Posts: 885
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

This game is definitely over. I just got this email:

I've been reflecting on the game up until now and come to the conclusion that due to changes in my personal circumstances over the past few weeks and resulting other demands, I don't have the capacity to give this game the time it needs and you, as a decent opponent, the commitment you deserve. Given the work put in to set it up (particularly by you), I've been trying to play on and keep things moving but the result is I've been rushing it and missing key things I should be paying attention to (besides the errors out of ignorance/misunderstanding of the rules). The results are only too evident. I don't think my situation is likely to change in the foreseeable future and I don't think it would be fair on you to try and continue in these circumstances.

So as you might be able to salvage something from this, attached is the end of orders file for the previous turn, in case someone else wants to pick this up. I haven't changed anything, so you should be able to re-run it and get an approximation of what happened. The password is Player2.

Please accept my sincere apologies for how this has worked out. I wish you well in your future games as Japanese player and hope you are able to find an opponent more worthy of you.

Regards

Keith

Congratulations on your win. The nice thing about going through the turn 1 process as Japan is that you gain a greater understanding of the board from the view of Japan; it will make you a better player as the allies.

I play pretty exclusively as Japan, so as I go through the turn 1 process for a new game I always seem to have picked up a new "trick" that I add/implement into that new first turn.

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Post #: 288

RE: Congratulations - 7/5/2019 12:22:21 AM

Miller

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Sorry your game ended so early, considering the effort you have to put in during the first couple of weeks in the game. Was your opponent a regular on here and/or an experienced player? Most of the time it's better to hang on for a proven skilled opponent than take the first offer that comes along....

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Post #: 289

RE: Congratulations - 7/5/2019 12:36:36 AM

BillBrown

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

Sorry your game ended so early, considering the effort you have to put in during the first couple of weeks in the game. Was your opponent a regular on here and/or an experienced player? Most of the time it's better to hang on for a proven skilled opponent than take the first offer that comes along....

He has been a member for over 5 years and has 6000+ posts.

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Post #: 290

RE: Congratulations - 7/5/2019 3:41:31 PM

Miller

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From: Ashington, England.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

Sorry your game ended so early, considering the effort you have to put in during the first couple of weeks in the game. Was your opponent a regular on here and/or an experienced player? Most of the time it's better to hang on for a proven skilled opponent than take the first offer that comes along....

He has been a member for over 5 years and has 6000+ posts.

Oh right, very bad luck then.

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Post #: 291

RE: Congratulations - 7/6/2019 1:29:34 AM

BillBrown

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As I continue to try and wrap my head around Japanese production, I ran across this tidbit.
Does anyone know if it is correct or not?

It is 30 times more likely that you will repair one point of your 0(30) than that you will repair the one point of your 0(1).

The probability of getting one point repaired on any given day is (total-factory-size)/(days-until-available). If the result is greater than 100% you are guaranteed to repair exactly one point on that day.

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Post #: 292

RE: Congratulations - 7/6/2019 2:54:22 AM

jdsrae

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

As I continue to try and wrap my head around Japanese production, I ran across this tidbit.
Does anyone know if it is correct or not?

It is 30 times more likely that you will repair one point of your 0(30) than that you will repair the one point of your 0(1).

The probability of getting one point repaired on any given day is (total-factory-size)/(days-until-available). If the result is greater than 100% you are guaranteed to repair exactly one point on that day.

I trust that it is so.
I also used that formula in a spreadsheet to forecast factory repairs in my current game and as at Apr 42 it looks to be holding true*.
* performance of individual factories does vary and past performance is no guarantee of future performance yada yada yada...

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Post #: 293

RE: Congratulations - 7/6/2019 3:03:13 AM

BillBrown

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Thank you, another strategy change needed.

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RE: Congratulations - 7/6/2019 10:37:14 AM

Chickenboy

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From: San Antonio, TX
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I think the probability formula you provided in your quote, Bill, is correct. As are the myriad caveats jdsrae provided.

With regards to this statement:

It is 30 times more likely that you will repair one point of your 0(30) than that you will repair the one point of your 0(1).

I think that accurate with the exception of engine research repair. In this case a 0(30) will (assuming supply blah blah blah) go to 1(29) on the next day. And a 0(1) will go to 1(0) on the next day. I don't think there is any difference for this rate of repair.

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Post #: 295

RE: Congratulations - 7/6/2019 12:20:23 PM

Mike Solli

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I think the probability formula you provided in your quote, Bill, is correct. As are the myriad caveats jdsrae provided.

With regards to this statement:

It is 30 times more likely that you will repair one point of your 0(30) than that you will repair the one point of your 0(1).

I think that accurate with the exception of engine research repair. In this case a 0(30) will (assuming supply blah blah blah) go to 1(29) on the next day. And a 0(1) will go to 1(0) on the next day. I don't think there is any difference for this rate of repair.

That is correct. R&D engine factories repair at a rate of 1 per day regardless of when that engine becomes operational. You can calculate to the day exactly when that engine will become operational assuming you repair the factories to at least 30. Also note that the max is 1% per factory per day with a size 30+ factory. So a fully repaired size 60 factory still gains 1% per day. It's not worth building R&D engine factories to larger than 30.

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Post #: 296

RE: Congratulations - 7/7/2019 11:35:39 AM

Canoerebel

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Hey, Bill, you've sailed through the storm perfectly! You took on Japan and managed to defeat the Allies (all in just over a week, but who's counting?)! Well done.

You put a lot of thought and effort into the game so it must be frustrating to see it end so early....but my goodness, you earned the boasting rights.

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RE: Congratulations - 7/7/2019 12:14:35 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Bill, you've sailed through the storm perfectly! You took on Japan and managed to defeat the Allies (all in just over a week, but who's counting?)! Well done.

You put a lot of thought and effort into the game so it must be frustrating to see it end so early....but my goodness, you earned the boasting rights.

+1

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Post #: 298

RE: Congratulations - 7/7/2019 2:00:26 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Bill, you've sailed through the storm perfectly! You took on Japan and managed to defeat the Allies (all in just over a week, but who's counting?)! Well done.

You put a lot of thought and effort into the game so it must be frustrating to see it end so early....but my goodness, you earned the boasting rights.

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Post #: 299

RE: Congratulations - 7/8/2019 5:46:29 PM

Bif1961

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Congrats on your first win as the empire. It can be done more than once. The Allies have a ticklish first 1-12 months and then things slowly get better for them. An early big loss to an allied player may end games early, as in this one. The Japanese have their own pressure early but the pummeling is much longer after 1943 for them and many times ends in an early victory for the Allies as the Japanese player throws in the towel. Remember Tojo was removed for the invasion of the Marianas and what it foretold for the Japanese Empire. I hope you can find an opponent to either pick up this game or be willing to be your worthy opponent in a new contest with you again being the evil Empire.

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Post #: 300