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Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses

 
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Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/22/2019 11:18:47 PM   
Disgruntled Veteran


Posts: 615
Joined: 2/19/2012
Status: offline 		Just as the title says. What is the level of armament factories lost that ensures the Red army will have difficulty building a quality army?
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RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/23/2019 6:48:47 AM   
thedoctorking


Posts: 2297
Joined: 4/29/2017
Status: offline 		People have said below 300 starts getting kind of questionable. I'm in a game right now, spring 1942, and I have 304. So we'll see.

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RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/23/2019 9:00:52 AM   
xhoel


Posts: 3219
Joined: 6/24/2017
From: Germany
Status: offline 		I think the numbers have changed. There is a lot more room for the Soviets to lose industry now due to the multipliers. A Soviet player can confirm better than I can though.

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RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/23/2019 9:55:14 AM   
mrblonde1


Posts: 51
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Status: offline 		https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4646699

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RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/23/2019 10:44:22 AM   
chaos45

 

Posts: 1889
Joined: 1/22/2001
Status: offline 		Optimal is 300 armaments and 180 heavy industry.

You can still survive on less but those are the numbers you want to shoot to save as minimum as the soviets....if you give up anything give up abit more heavy and save the armaments.

The big issue is they have changed the production so much over the years that I'm not sure what you would even need to produce everything you could in a week. As limits to artillery especially were added to the game per week production. Before without the limit, it was all about how many armaments plants you had on how quickly you could build up your heavy artillery regiments.

With 300 you should easily get all your small arms and probably max out your max artillery tube production per week.

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RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/23/2019 12:35:42 PM   
7sisters

 

Posts: 12
Joined: 7/31/2019
Status: offline 		It seems the link by mrblonde1 is on more recent data by EwaldvonKleist. So I would go with 280.

I know the old numbers for 300 were calculated by loki100 - but they themselves said it was an older version and you should go with the numbers based on the latest versions of the game.


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RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/23/2019 4:26:33 PM   
chaos45

 

Posts: 1889
Joined: 1/22/2001
Status: offline 		Actually the 300/180 were calculated by myself long ago..think I put them up around the time I was playing pelton like 4-5 years ago lol....as I said those are optimal numbers....below that you will suffer a slower rebuild of the soviet army....like EVK says your armaments shortage will last longer.

You can survive with less depending on player skill/losses an such...but you should aspire to keep at least the optimal amounts.

Also I don't think patches have changed the multiplies of production in like forever other than reducing soviet manpower generation. Its been a steady constant in the game. By 1943 the soviets can actually survive with less than 180 heavy industry easily...its why I say if you give up anything give up HI....as you really only need it until 1943 to ensure you have more than enough supplies for full production/combat/fort building.



< Message edited by chaos45 -- 9/24/2019 6:03:43 AM >

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RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/23/2019 9:40:51 PM   
Disgruntled Veteran


Posts: 615
Joined: 2/19/2012
Status: offline 		TBH, I didn't know what the Soviets start with as I'm almost always an axis player. It appears they start with 370 arm, so If I've captured 61 in my current game (which I thought was awesome) I haven't really broken the Soviet industry it seems? This is of course the amount captured before blizzard.

Thanks for the feedback!

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RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/24/2019 10:01:18 AM   
xhoel


Posts: 3219
Joined: 6/24/2017
From: Germany
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Disgruntled Veteran

So If I've captured 61 in my current game (which I thought was awesome) I haven't really broken the Soviet industry it seems? This is of course the amount captured before blizzard.

Thanks for the feedback!


In the current version it is very hard or almost impossible to negatively affect the Soviets by capturing industry. You should still try to capture as much as possible, just don't expect much from it.

Cheers!

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RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/24/2019 10:37:27 AM   
EwaldvonKleist


Posts: 2038
Joined: 4/14/2016
From: Berlin, Germany
Status: offline 		According to the calculations from this thread: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4646699 (also linked by MrBlonde) 280 AP and 170 should be sufficient for the Reds save for a short AP shortage in early 1942. I have seen games where the Reds were doing fine industry wise with even less, on the paradox forum there is an ongoing AAR where someone built a 10 Mio. men army with 260ish APs. The classical 300/200 or 300/180 numbers for a minimum are definititely too high/have too much safety margin.

So in short winning the game by AP/HI industry destruction is almost impossible.


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RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/24/2019 10:38:12 AM   
chaos45

 

Posts: 1889
Joined: 1/22/2001
Status: offline 		Basically capturing soviet industry does help the Germans...as the more industry you destroy the longer it will take the Soviet army to reach full strength as the game goes on. Thus in general the longer you can delay the turning point in overall combat power of the two armies.

However this abit simplistic as well.....because the soviets also need men to man all of the equipment they are producing. So really with the manpower nerf from like 3-4 years ago it has become more about soviet manpower than really soviet armaments.

Another interesting thing, is if in the new patch HQ units cannot leave pockets...this will mean a large chunk of additional total soviet losses at the start of the game the Soviet player will have to replace and train....going to be very interesting to see how this new patch plays out as before the soviet player usually kept about 40% of the men in the support units and HQs from the border now those will all be permanent losses and give the Germans yet more Hiwis if this change is in the patch.

Going to add a final caveat...player skill and game results matter as well into what is optimal....also the army build the soviet player goes with matters a great deal in armaments consumption. So if you build a soviet army that has a lot of armament hog units you need more. IMO artillery is one of the big tipping points in combat power between the armies so IMO the soviets building more artillery SU is good long term, but also takes more armaments. Thus I do not agree with EVK as in a lot of matters we have disagreed with on in the past.

< Message edited by chaos45 -- 9/24/2019 11:17:50 AM >

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RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/24/2019 11:45:53 AM   
morvael


Posts: 11762
Joined: 9/8/2006
From: Poland
Status: offline 		It's very easy to alter manpower production modifiers. The problem is: to what value... Since AIvsAI tests didn't result in huge increases to manpower losses I could not justify changing them right from the start (but as we know AI is bad at making encirclements other than from the starting moves). We'll have to see what players can do.

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Post #: 12
RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/24/2019 5:02:29 PM   
thedoctorking


Posts: 2297
Joined: 4/29/2017
Status: offline 		One question, probably more for designers that developers like Moravel, but maybe he has some insight: why can't factories that are destroyed by being overrun by the Germans be repaired? Why eliminate them? I know that historically, the Germans got a good bit of production out of captured Soviet factories, and when they were recaptured by the Soviets, they were once again repaired and put back into service. Both sides got quite good at repairing damaged industrial infrastructure - Speer gave an often-cited figure of four to six weeks to fully repair a factory damaged by bombing. The US Strategic Bombing Survey bore this out, remarking especially on the rapid repairs in the German aviation industry that allowed factories marked as totally destroyed on American maps to go on producing. Ground combat wrecks a landscape maybe more efficiently than aerial bombardment, but still I'd think that totally destroying the factories without any chance of repair is going too far.

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Post #: 13
RE: Tipping point for Sov Arm factory losses - 9/26/2019 7:47:51 AM   
56ajax


Posts: 1950
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Carnegie, Australia
Status: offline 		Tend to agree on this in that Lend Lease provided goods other than weapons and supplies; for example machine tools and aluminium (60% of Soviet requirements). So I would expect some expansion of Soviet industry, but perhaps this is factored into the multipliers.

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