Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

I see nor think anything disparaging about that pic. It's my heritage, my family.

For those that do not know, in this scene, Mammy has just told Scarlett a TRUTH that Scarlett did not want to hear. And Mammy is "UH-HA I told you!"

If the moderator wants to remove it.... he will.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

MacArthur went behind Truman's back to the Press and got his Hero of Inchon ass fired...with good reason.

Not quite the same circumstances in any way, shape or form, is it?

No, MacArthur needed to be removed. He was veering toward a messianic state. I think the Captain of Roosevelt felt compassion toward his crew and knew he would get sacked but did it anyway. It is noble in a way and understandable..but still wrong. You can't have officers disobeying orders because it is a difficult ask. He essentially declared to the world that an entire USN carrier battle group was out of action. Suppose the CCP decides THIS is the time to invade Taiwan based on that information (not likely of course)? Or the mullahs of Iran decide to stir up **** right now (more likely) and they miscalculate badly?

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[To MakeeLearn:] Well, her character Mammy didn't receive an income during her years of servitude. After the war she probably got room and board and maybe some allowance or minimal pay.

That image will simply inflame things without any possible productive reason that I can think of (or did I simply miss it?). Similarly, any discussion of a minimum basic income, though arising from the present crisis, is sure to veer off into the political minefield we've just gotten through (sorta).

I'm not hall monitor but the good residents of the forum have done a pretty good job of self-regulating the past few days. I'd avoid the topic and redact the image if I could.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

And if Covid-19 doesn't get you, maybe Chernobyl will. A forest fire near the reactor site has raised radiation levels in the air 16X normal. I hope they do a better job of protecting their firefighters this time!

warspite1

For those with some expertise in this area, I am curious to know how the fire in the forest around Chernobyl has raised the radiation levels.

Thank-you.

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

And if Covid-19 doesn't get you, maybe Chernobyl will. A forest fire near the reactor site has raised radiation levels in the air 16X normal. I hope they do a better job of protecting their firefighters this time!

warspite1

For those with some expertise in this area, I am curious to know how the fire in the forest around Chernobyl has raised the radiation levels.

Thank-you.

I only know from the mini-series "Chernobyl" (which appeared to be well-researched) that the contamination from the fire at the reactor fell on tens of thousands of square kilometers. The Soviets later sent 350,000 army personnel with Geiger counters to locate hot-spots, and bury them in situ by turning over the soil that the radiation was on. They could not ensure the tree foliage was clean and the buried bits could easily have got into the tree in the ground water. So now when the trees burn, the ash contains the radioactive material.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I just went back and skimmed through the first five pages of this thread. Lots of interesting reading there. Early projections and analysis from rank amateurs, thoughtful forumites and outright experts. Some things gotten right and some wrong. Back then, the mortality figured used was 2% in this thread (and, from memory, 3% to 5% in many sources). Right now that figure seems to be mostly at 1%. If RangerJoe's source is right, and if things continue improving, in the end this may be much less than 1%. There was some early discussion of that possibility in this thread, at a time when it seems hopelessly optimistic.

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

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ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm not going to get political here. I will say that some of us do understand the difference between the Government of China and it's history of abuses and people who look to be from an East Asian country. There are a lot of people who don't and who equate the two things. They hear these comments and they act on them against real people.

We don't need to support the use of terminology that could be interpreted as biased against a nation and its people, in spite of its government's culpability in this crisis.

I agree. I would have chosen a different way to call them on their BS.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My email to family last Tuesday included this assessment: "A few days ago, a major university in the UK revised its mortality estimate for that country from 500,000 to 20,000. Similarly, the US projections are currently 100k to 200k mortality (as widely reported in the news). That’s down by 10x what had been projected a few weeks ago. I think US estimate will drop more – probably a lot more. In the end, I expect (as a layman, an optimist without any credentials whatsoever) that the US death toll will be something in line with a seasonal flu outbreak – perhaps 20k to 40k over the next three or four months. Most mortalities will be the elderly and those with exacerbating conditions (obesity) or health issues (diabetes, etc.)."

At the time, the news and information coming at us was almost uniformly negative. Things were bleak and seemed to be spiraling continually bleaker. But it was the first time there seemed to be enough reliable data to hazard a guess.

(My family has strictly adhered to countermeasure requirements in place in our jurisdictions.)

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing


Well, it also looks like you can't have a Nav Sec losing the confidence of every person in the chain of command below them either.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There has to be a high level of security in the military. Must be.

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Looks like NYC is under-counting, by a wide margin, the number of dead from Corona-19. It's a big city and typically 20 people die at home every day. In the last few weeks, over 200 people a day are dying at home. Coincidence? I think not. Anyway, if you die at home the body is not tested for Corona-19. So the actual body count may be significantly higher than the reported number. Not sure of other locals policies but I suspect they are similar. At home deaths are not being counted so the 1% mortality rate (so-far) is probably artificially low

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only know from the mini-series "Chernobyl"

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I prefer accurate numbers

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There has to be a high level of security in the military. Must be.

Agreed, the security breach was a cardinal sin.

The part that troubles me is that no one higher up the chain seemed to be able to arrange what he finally had to do - put in at Guam. Once he was there and word was out, they made ground arrangements quickly. That suggests that the Pentagon was so obsessed with not letting anyone find out about their predicament that they wanted to keep the CVN at sea.

Sounds like the Soviets at Chernobyl - not wanting to let the secret out in a situation that could not be covered up for long. In the meantime, more and more people were being affected and higher numbers of deaths would be a statistical probability.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There has to be a high level of security in the military. Must be.

Agreed, the security breach was a cardinal sin.

The part that troubles me is that no one higher up the chain seemed to be able to arrange what he finally had to do - put in at Guam. Once he was there and word was out, they made ground arrangements quickly. That suggests that the Pentagon was so obsessed with not letting anyone find out about their predicament that they wanted to keep the CVN at sea.

Sounds like the Soviets at Chernobyl - not wanting to let the secret out in a situation that could not be covered up for long. In the meantime, more and more people were being affected and higher numbers of deaths would be a statistical probability.

Once the carrier put in at Guam, it was in a static position and not mobile. Easier to target and destroy. Once word got out about the readiness state, it just made it worse. Most of the US Navy at sea should be relatively young and healthy. I think that the Captain sort of panicked.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's a map showing tallies in the World as a whole, as of 3/1/20 (see upper right) and USA (left).

I've been following this map since a Forumite posted a link to it two or three days back.

Two days ago, the USA had 40-something cases and no deaths. Yesterday it was 60-something and 1 death. Today 71 and 1 death.

That is a linear rather than geometric progression, if I'm using the terms correctly. If that's true, that's encouraging! But we don't know yet if the testing is accurate or thorough or if many new cases are missed. If so, we could see geometric increases, as time goes on.

Let's hope it remains linear.

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

Another example of preparation not maintained.

How New York City’s Emergency Ventilator Stockpile Ended Up on the Auction Block

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East Hogshed County, Minnebraska