RE: OT: Corona virus

Matrix Games Forums

Forums Register Login Photo Gallery Member List Search Calendars FAQ

My Profile Inbox Address Book My Subscription My Forums Log Out

RE: OT: Corona virus

View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest

Users viewing this topic: none

Printable Version

All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus

Page: << < prev 170 171 [172] 173 174 next > >>

Message

<< Older Topic Newer Topic >>

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 1:04:17 AM

Nomad

Posts: 5905
Joined: 9/5/2001
From: West Yellowstone, Montana
Status: offline

sorry

< Message edited by Nomad -- 4/18/2020 1:29:42 AM >

_____________________________

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)

Post #: 5131

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 1:45:17 AM

Alfred

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

... I didn't realise that Professor Ferguson had got it so wrong with BSE/CJD - that was definitely a major goof-up on his part.

He has a well established track record of getting it seriously wrong, a fact overlooked by unqualified journalists who just accept any "expert's" mo9delling without looking at the assumptions underpinning any model.

1. 2005, Ferguson claimed bird flu could claim up to 200 million. Result was 282 world wide deaths between 2003 and 2009.

2. 2009, the claim was swine flu had a fatality rate of 0.3 to 1.5%. He/Imperial College settled for a 0.4% rate which fed into a UK government estimate of 65,000 UK deaths. Actual result was 457 UK deaths, a rate of 0.026% 9f those infected.

3. 2001, their modelling of foot and mouth disease led to UK government policy which cost the UK 10 billion pounds. The modelling was strongly criticised as being severely flawed by Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University.

4. 2002, their modelling expected 50 to 50,000 people dying from mad cow disease, increasing to 150,000 if there was also a sheep epidemic. Result is 177 UK deaths.

5. Nor is their current COVID-19 modelling far from being generally accepted as being accurate. Besides the Oxford study which produces quite different results, Professor John Ioamidis of Stanford University has commented that some of the major assumptions and estimated seem to be substantially inflated.

None of this is surprising when it is realised (as disclosed by Ferguson on 22 March 2020) that their model is based on undocumented 13 year old computer code written for an influenza pandemic, not a coronavirus pandemic. IOW the model is not available for peer review nor does it fully incorporate the specific characteristics of the current pandemic.

Alfred

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)

Post #: 5132

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 2:37:05 AM

RangerJoe

Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline

Finland puts brakes on EU unemployment scheme
Helsinki has concerns about how much it could have to pay into the SURE scheme.

quote:

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented SURE two weeks ago as a tool to support countries worst-hit by the coronavirus crisis. The Commission and the Croatian presidency of the Council of the EU had pushed for the instrument to be adopted next week as a sign of EU solidarity and financial support ahead of a videoconference of EU leaders next Thursday.

Although SURE could theoretically be adopted by a two-thirds majority of EU countries, in practice it needs approval from all countries because they have to issue financial guarantees to the Commission to make the scheme work.

According to two diplomats, Kulmuni on Thursday urged her EU partners not to adopt SURE against Finland's will, warning this could have implications on the Finnish parliament's readiness to approve the required guarantees.

SURE requires countries to put up �25 billion in guarantees so the Commission can issue debt of up to �100 billion on capital markets and distribute loans for aid to employers that would otherwise lay off workers.
.
.
.
This raised fears that if other countries were to delay their payments, or even renounce on them, then Helsinki might need to shoulder a much higher financial burden.

https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-puts-brakes-on-commissions-unemployment-scheme/

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

(in reply to Alfred)

Post #: 5133

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 6:25:52 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nomad

An article with an interesting conclusion. https://townhall.com/columnists/marinamedvin/2020/04/15/israeli-professor-shows-virus-follows-fixed-pattern-n2566915

quote:

"�Is the coronavirus expansion exponential? The answer by the numbers is simple: no. Expansion begins exponentially but fades quickly after about eight weeks,� Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concluded. The reason why coronavirus follows a fixed pattern is yet unknown. "I have no explanation,� he told Mako, �There are is kinds of speculation: maybe it's climate-related, maybe the virus has its own life cycle.� "

Interesting article. I've seen no comments on it.

I checked out his support page, and from what I could discern (not being able to read Hebrew) is that he's using Sweden as a prime example of how the virus curve will "flatten" after eight weeks regardless of lockdown or not.

Sweden is not doing nothing. A lot is open, but not everything, and the government is acting on it's knowledge of the social awareness and responsibility of its citizens (usually remarkably good in Northern European countries) to reduce virus transmission.

Polling suggests many Swedes continue to support the government�s strategy, which has entailed urging citizens to take personal responsibility for following physical distancing guidelines rather than strictly enforcing mandatory rules.

While authorities have closed senior high schools and banned gatherings of more than 50 people, they have asked � rather than ordered � people to avoid non-essential travel, work from home and stay indoors if they are over 70 or are feeling ill.

Statistics show roughly half the Swedish workforce is now working from home, public transport usage has fallen by 50% in Stockholm and the capital�s streets are about 70% less busy than usual � but Swedes are still able to shop, go to restaurants, get haircuts and send children under 16 to class even if a family member is ill.

They still have a much higher rate of infection than neighbouring countries that did have lockdowns.

So I don't really think this article (from a non-peer reviewed study) in a news source that is debatably fairly extreme in its viewpoint (article on how the "Kennedy matriarch named her dog Che after Che Guevarra) will be something I'd hang my hat on as a milepost in this pandemic.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to MakeeLearn)

Post #: 5134

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 6:39:35 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

This is interesting. Not peer reviewed. From Stanford.

Actual numbers of cases might be 50 to 85 times more than indicated from testing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

Just for kicks, if that is true in the US it would be 35,344,000 to 60,084,800 as of today's numbers!!!

In the UK that would be 5,434,600 to 9,238,820!

So that Oxford study stating 5 million might have already been infected a few weeks ago might not be as far off as it seemed then.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 5135

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 9:59:38 AM

Cap Mandrake

Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

Santa Clara County, Calif. prevalence estimate using serologies was between 1.8 and 5.8% (95% CI). The study ended on April 1 so it would presumably be higher now.

In any event, it was 60-80x higher than the reported cases based on nasal swab PCR testing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=be77753b5f9c509cb865d14fbdaf97eeb78e11d5-1587139595-0-AWIUFx6wN0uXOvkl2GvKJJc-Ig8sPLjxRzO454lTi9KpWYjKbxnVGQzEHGD9bYZUKYUUOdrfRQ_wQREzNDVmpdEWVIZYt6UTI9m_LD7byikYQA-loXE677ZRO1gHfKAz7mccB9JD5q3Y8YVehLtYCxNulZzxgq75-rzgoHZ2Heyj5PDAftyTcJ9j-gS_9XvqhP1w_lcrCrvVy9EM4vDfOYSqAiDYODT4O2PXN776dtAuibDok5gMCdzZYcCoRi69cdjoFoqV7X4-dhUOTFhjUA5EzGIOpkN7fsqrkufnBv0pOXqb3nOUoVRFDs5ZdBzO9w_yicdwyhIdvht3lBZyMgA

1000 positive by PCR out of about 5000 sailors aboard Roosevelt...that's about 20%

The stuff is contagious as Hell and the mild/asymptomatic cases are HUGE. Why are there so few new cases in Wuhan?

1) Either the Chicoms are lying

2) Everyone there already had the damn thing

3) They have achieved herd immunity

(in reply to Nomad)

Post #: 5136

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 10:04:50 AM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline

quote:

None of this is surprising when it is realised (as disclosed by Ferguson on 22 March 2020) that their model is based on undocumented 13 year old computer code written for an influenza pandemic, not a coronavirus pandemic. IOW the model is not available for peer review nor does it fully incorporate the specific characteristics of the current pandemic.

That got a few raised eyebrows when he revealed that. Given the tools for collaboration online, especially in coding, that was something of a suprise.

That said, I can appreciate why having bad code now is better than perfect code in three weeks time.

This is why you should always comment your code people!

(in reply to Alfred)

Post #: 5137

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 10:13:34 AM

HansBolter

Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Just a visual of US uneployment...?

That's unemployment insurance claims though? Is that something that is run by the government or through private insurance? Either way it represents people who have been in stable employment for long enough to be entitled to claim - exactly the demographic that would be worst hit by a sudden heavy change in circumstances like we have now.

In terms of pure unemployment both the US and UK have been gradually tracking down from c. 8% towards the end of 2011 to c.3.5% in late 2019. The OBR forecasts we had for a situation where we had to stay in lockdown into summer had unemployment going up to 10% in the UK.

Going of the same forecasts the thing to look at is not unemployment but reduction in GDP - they were forecasting a drop of 35% which would be a far bigger retraction than any of the recessions of living memory (and worse than the retraction that followed the Spanish Flu epidemic)

Private insurance has no role in providing unemployment benefits. They are provided by states and backstopped by the federal government. 'Insurance' is what it is presented to the people as representing.

_____________________________

Hans

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)

Post #: 5138

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 10:13:42 AM

Cap Mandrake

Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

Man there is some good news evolving.

--Remdesivir seems to work for severe cases
--We AREN'T Going to run out of vents
--The number of mild cases means we can achieve some form of herd immunity sooner than expected
--Maybe we can halt the economic damage before we are mud gatherers

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 5139

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 10:16:37 AM

HansBolter

Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is interesting. Not peer reviewed. From Stanford.

Actual numbers of cases might be 50 to 85 times more than indicated from testing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

Just for kicks, if that is true in the US it would be 35,344,000 to 60,084,800 as of today's numbers!!!

In the UK that would be 5,434,600 to 9,238,820!

So that Oxford study stating 5 million might have already been infected a few weeks ago might not be as far off as it seemed then.

I don't find this to be in any way as surprising as you seem to.
Aren't something like 80% of cases exhibiting almost no symptoms?

40m people with no symptoms are not gonna freak out over having it.

_____________________________

Hans

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 5140

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 10:18:11 AM

Cap Mandrake

Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

I think most of the money for unemployment insurance in "normal" times comes from payroll deductions so, mostly, it IS paid for by employees and employers.

Of course in a disaster of this scale they will likely blast through the funds quickly and the federal bailout bill include wads of taxpayer money to bail out the states..

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 5141

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 10:20:36 AM

Cap Mandrake

Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

The $1200 "stimulus checks" are right from the US Treasury (we borrowed the money).

Oddly, the IRS has seemed to have forgotten to send me one.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 5142

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 12:03:47 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Santa Clara County, Calif. prevalence estimate using serologies was between 1.8 and 5.8% (95% CI). The study ended on April 1 so it would presumably be higher now.

In any event, it was 60-80x higher than the reported cases based on nasal swab PCR testing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=be77753b5f9c509cb865d14fbdaf97eeb78e11d5-1587139595-0-AWIUFx6wN0uXOvkl2GvKJJc-Ig8sPLjxRzO454lTi9KpWYjKbxnVGQzEHGD9bYZUKYUUOdrfRQ_wQREzNDVmpdEWVIZYt6UTI9m_LD7byikYQA-loXE677ZRO1gHfKAz7mccB9JD5q3Y8YVehLtYCxNulZzxgq75-rzgoHZ2Heyj5PDAftyTcJ9j-gS_9XvqhP1w_lcrCrvVy9EM4vDfOYSqAiDYODT4O2PXN776dtAuibDok5gMCdzZYcCoRi69cdjoFoqV7X4-dhUOTFhjUA5EzGIOpkN7fsqrkufnBv0pOXqb3nOUoVRFDs5ZdBzO9w_yicdwyhIdvht3lBZyMgA

1000 positive by PCR out of about 5000 sailors aboard Roosevelt...that's about 20%

The stuff is contagious as Hell and the mild/asymptomatic cases are HUGE. Why are there so few new cases in Wuhan?

1) Either the Chicoms are lying

2) Everyone there already had the damn thing

3) They have achieved herd immunity

All of the above.

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 5143

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 12:28:52 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is interesting. Not peer reviewed. From Stanford.

Actual numbers of cases might be 50 to 85 times more than indicated from testing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

Just for kicks, if that is true in the US it would be 35,344,000 to 60,084,800 as of today's numbers!!!

In the UK that would be 5,434,600 to 9,238,820!

So that Oxford study stating 5 million might have already been infected a few weeks ago might not be as far off as it seemed then.

I don't find this to be in any way as surprising as you seem to.
Aren't something like 80% of cases exhibiting almost no symptoms?

40m people with no symptoms are not gonna freak out over having it.

As far as anyone who is coming up with figures like the 80% exhibiting almost no symptoms, those are known cases.

So using the premise of this study (and others) the total of asymptomatic cases could actually be much, much higher, which would be very surprising, yes.

If the actual cases in the US are 35 million, but we've only got 700k+ known cases from testing, and 80% of the known cases are asymptomatic, what percentage of the "other" unknown cases are asymptomatic? Or do they have different symptoms, like a common cold, or just aches, or just a stomach upset, etc. Would it be 90% asymptomatic? Or more?

The implication would be both positive and negative. Very good if so many had had it already, and the case mortality rate would plummet. Very bad it's so contagious and we can't keep it away from vulnerable groups easily. So we'll all be wearing face masks and not visiting elderly relatives for a good while.

If reliable serology tests can be made in mass quantities, or even if these studies gain some traction from peer review and are shown to be reliabe, it could also mean opening things up more quickly and effectively.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to HansBolter)

Post #: 5144

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 12:38:17 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Santa Clara County, Calif. prevalence estimate using serologies was between 1.8 and 5.8% (95% CI). The study ended on April 1 so it would presumably be higher now.

In any event, it was 60-80x higher than the reported cases based on nasal swab PCR testing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=be77753b5f9c509cb865d14fbdaf97eeb78e11d5-1587139595-0-AWIUFx6wN0uXOvkl2GvKJJc-Ig8sPLjxRzO454lTi9KpWYjKbxnVGQzEHGD9bYZUKYUUOdrfRQ_wQREzNDVmpdEWVIZYt6UTI9m_LD7byikYQA-loXE677ZRO1gHfKAz7mccB9JD5q3Y8YVehLtYCxNulZzxgq75-rzgoHZ2Heyj5PDAftyTcJ9j-gS_9XvqhP1w_lcrCrvVy9EM4vDfOYSqAiDYODT4O2PXN776dtAuibDok5gMCdzZYcCoRi69cdjoFoqV7X4-dhUOTFhjUA5EzGIOpkN7fsqrkufnBv0pOXqb3nOUoVRFDs5ZdBzO9w_yicdwyhIdvht3lBZyMgA

1000 positive by PCR out of about 5000 sailors aboard Roosevelt...that's about 20%

The stuff is contagious as Hell and the mild/asymptomatic cases are HUGE. Why are there so few new cases in Wuhan?

1) Either the Chicoms are lying

2) Everyone there already had the damn thing

3) They have achieved herd immunity

The French CV was a much higher percentage positive. It had been out about 3-4 weeks, and had 1,081 of the 2,300 positive, or 47%.

But, and this is the case with any closed environment being tested en masse during a short period presumably, there must have been many more cases earlier that were recovered already. Possibly a lot more.

The Chinese really need to get the whole of Wuhan tested serologically, but if the US could do it in NY, or the Italians in Lombardy, or the NHS here in London, it will be a game changer. So it doesn't matter so much whether that is done in China now. We have enough places where we know it moved through a lot of the population before being noticed, and then had a severe outbreak.

It might be better if serological tests were done in these environments where we could be more confident of the numbers, really.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 5145

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 12:42:45 PM

Encircled

Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline

The ventilator scandal in the UK summed up perfectly.

Sadly we've completely messed this up and its going to be a long time till we get back to normal in the UK

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1251434219139665920

_____________________________

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 5146

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 12:54:43 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

John Barry discusses the more recent work on the 1918 flu pandemic. In recent years the origin has been found to likely not been Kansas and it was probably not a swine flu.

#107 - John Barry: 1918 Spanish flu pandemic�historical account, parallels to today, and lessons

quote:

In this episode, John Barry, historian and author of The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History, describes what happened with the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, including where it likely originated, how and why it spread, and what may have accounted for the occurrence of three separate waves of the virus, each with different rates of infection and mortality. While the current coronavirus pandemic pales in comparison to the devastation of the Spanish flu, John highlights a number of parallels that can be drawn and lessons to be learned and applied going forward.

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

(in reply to Encircled)

Post #: 5147

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 2:04:10 PM

Cap Mandrake

Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

Nearly 1/3rd of Chelsea, Mass residents walking around on the street are serologically positive for COVID

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/

(in reply to witpqs)

Post #: 5148

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 2:26:16 PM

Olorin

Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

The ventilator scandal in the UK summed up perfectly.

Sadly we've completely messed this up and its going to be a long time till we get back to normal in the UK

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1251434219139665920

You can blame all this on bad advice from the Imperial college charlatans.

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to Encircled)

Post #: 5149

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 2:28:06 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Nearly 1/3rd of Chelsea, Mass residents walking around on the street are serologically positive for COVID

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/

So another of these showing the numbers are really off the charts, literally, from what we've been thinking.

Read this and it sounds like many of he residents here had to continue to travel to work, and a high proportion work in hospitality in healthcare, so are more exposed.

I'd love to see them do this outside a Safeway or Piggly Wiggly somewhere. Just start picking random grocery store lines and get a blood drop from everyone there. Do about 1,000 in each location and see what happens.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 5150

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 2:35:22 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

The ventilator scandal in the UK summed up perfectly.

Sadly we've completely messed this up and its going to be a long time till we get back to normal in the UK

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1251434219139665920

Well, this is not all bad. I do think to design these from scratch was ambitious and perhaps foolhardy, but at the time they were looking for any and every solution. The existing design also being manufactured have in fact been delivered (100 of them) and the article states 10k is the target for those. So really it's about trying to get all industry involved, going fast and learning what was necessary on the way.

I don't see this as a fiasco, but I also teach design and engineering, and I know prototyping designs and getting things to work from a complex purpose is not going to be easy from the start, and won't likely be quick.

The CPAP has been used a lot too and the F1 team helping to manufacture those seems to be working out.

The fact now is that the curve is flattening so the frantic nature of initial efforts is also flattening into a more reasoned approach to get more trusted models from existing and new manufactures.

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/18/2020 2:36:11 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Encircled)

Post #: 5151

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 2:40:53 PM

Encircled

Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

The ventilator scandal in the UK summed up perfectly.

Sadly we've completely messed this up and its going to be a long time till we get back to normal in the UK

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1251434219139665920

Well, this is not all bad. I do think to design these from scratch was ambitious and perhaps foolhardy, but at the time they were looking for any and every solution. The existing design also being manufactured have in fact been delivered (100 of them) and the article states 10k is the target for those. So really it's about trying to get all industry involved, going fast and learning what was necessary on the way.

I don't see this as a fiasco, but I also teach design and engineering, and I know prototyping designs and getting things to work from a complex purpose is not going to be easy from the start, and won't likely be quick.

The CPAP has been used a lot too and the F1 team helping to manufacture those seems to be working out.

The fact now is that the curve is flattening so the frantic nature of initial efforts is also flattening into a more reasoned approach to get more trusted models from existing and new manufactures.

The fear was ventilator capacity being overwhelmed though!

If it had been, then this would be much more serious.

But I do take your point

_____________________________

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 5152

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 2:42:21 PM

Encircled

Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Olorin

quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

The ventilator scandal in the UK summed up perfectly.

Sadly we've completely messed this up and its going to be a long time till we get back to normal in the UK

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1251434219139665920

You can blame all this on bad advice from the Imperial college charlatans.

Well, the ultimate responsibility is on the government.

While Europe shut down, we didn't, and that is where the questions are being asked.

_____________________________

(in reply to Olorin)

Post #: 5153

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 3:15:27 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The $1200 "stimulus checks" are right from the US Treasury (we borrowed the money).

Oddly, the IRS has seemed to have forgotten to send me one.

You're probably, like me, one of the 'fortunate' few that are above the income threshhold for consideration. Benefits start getting phased out >$150,000 IIRC. If you make >$175k you get bupkis.

_____________________________

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 5154

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 3:21:46 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
The Chinese really need to get the whole of Wuhan tested serologically, but if the US could do it in NY, or the Italians in Lombardy, or the NHS here in London, it will be a game changer.

Disagree. The 'game' is afoot no matter what we test, whom we test, when we test or how we test them. We need to move forward assuming incomplete information, not wait on some novelty finding or curiosity. We cannot wait for serologic findings on a small town or other artificial 'population' to move on.

So let's say you find a higher % seroconverters than you expect from a small town (e.g., Santa Clara, CA or Chelsea, Mass) sampling? How will that affect your decision to move forward? ~33% seroconversion= ~66% susceptible. So what? That doesn't impact my perceptions of the disease process or the societal impact one iota.

_____________________________

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 5155

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 3:24:19 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Man there is some good news evolving.

--Remdesivir seems to work for severe cases
--We AREN'T Going to run out of vents
--The number of mild cases means we can achieve some form of herd immunity sooner than expected
--Maybe we can halt the economic damage before we are mud gatherers

"Ooh! Denis! There's some lovely filth down here!"

_____________________________

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 5156

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 3:29:11 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
If reliable serology tests can be made in mass quantities, or even if these studies gain some traction from peer review and are shown to be reliabe, it could also mean opening things up more quickly and effectively.

Again, disagree. "Reliable" serology tests en masse will take months or years. We simply don't have that time to wait. And I deny the applicability of small scale testing to a different 'population' for decision making purposes (e.g., what 'works' for Chelsea, Mass or a French Aircraft carrier doesn't mean anything for San Antonio, TX). We move forward with incomplete information, regardless of how uncomfortable that feels.

_____________________________

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 5157

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 3:30:43 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Santa Clara County, Calif. prevalence estimate using serologies was between 1.8 and 5.8% (95% CI). The study ended on April 1 so it would presumably be higher now.

In any event, it was 60-80x higher than the reported cases based on nasal swab PCR testing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=be77753b5f9c509cb865d14fbdaf97eeb78e11d5-1587139595-0-AWIUFx6wN0uXOvkl2GvKJJc-Ig8sPLjxRzO454lTi9KpWYjKbxnVGQzEHGD9bYZUKYUUOdrfRQ_wQREzNDVmpdEWVIZYt6UTI9m_LD7byikYQA-loXE677ZRO1gHfKAz7mccB9JD5q3Y8YVehLtYCxNulZzxgq75-rzgoHZ2Heyj5PDAftyTcJ9j-gS_9XvqhP1w_lcrCrvVy9EM4vDfOYSqAiDYODT4O2PXN776dtAuibDok5gMCdzZYcCoRi69cdjoFoqV7X4-dhUOTFhjUA5EzGIOpkN7fsqrkufnBv0pOXqb3nOUoVRFDs5ZdBzO9w_yicdwyhIdvht3lBZyMgA

1000 positive by PCR out of about 5000 sailors aboard Roosevelt...that's about 20%

The stuff is contagious as Hell and the mild/asymptomatic cases are HUGE. Why are there so few new cases in Wuhan?

1) Either the Chicoms are lying

2) Everyone there already had the damn thing

3) They have achieved herd immunity

All of the above.

Excuse me. I believe you meant to say, "One from column 'A' and one from column 'B'".

_____________________________

(in reply to witpqs)

Post #: 5158

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 3:36:31 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

... I didn't realise that Professor Ferguson had got it so wrong with BSE/CJD - that was definitely a major goof-up on his part.

He has a well established track record of getting it seriously wrong, a fact overlooked by unqualified journalists who just accept any "expert's" mo9delling without looking at the assumptions underpinning any model.

1. 2005, Ferguson claimed bird flu could claim up to 200 million. Result was 282 world wide deaths between 2003 and 2009.

2. 2009, the claim was swine flu had a fatality rate of 0.3 to 1.5%. He/Imperial College settled for a 0.4% rate which fed into a UK government estimate of 65,000 UK deaths. Actual result was 457 UK deaths, a rate of 0.026% 9f those infected.

3. 2001, their modelling of foot and mouth disease led to UK government policy which cost the UK 10 billion pounds. The modelling was strongly criticised as being severely flawed by Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University.

4. 2002, their modelling expected 50 to 50,000 people dying from mad cow disease, increasing to 150,000 if there was also a sheep epidemic. Result is 177 UK deaths.

5. Nor is their current COVID-19 modelling far from being generally accepted as being accurate. Besides the Oxford study which produces quite different results, Professor John Ioamidis of Stanford University has commented that some of the major assumptions and estimated seem to be substantially inflated.

None of this is surprising when it is realised (as disclosed by Ferguson on 22 March 2020) that their model is based on undocumented 13 year old computer code written for an influenza pandemic, not a coronavirus pandemic. IOW the model is not available for peer review nor does it fully incorporate the specific characteristics of the current pandemic.

Alfred

GIGO by any other name?

_____________________________

(in reply to Alfred)

Post #: 5159

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/18/2020 3:49:22 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
Very good if so many had had it already, and the case mortality rate would plummet.

Technically, the CFR would be about the same as it is now, if one stuck to the conventional definition of what a 'case' is (displaying clinical signs). The IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) or 'if I get this thing, what are the odds that I die from it' would decrease significantly. Semantics? Yes, to an extent. But to the lay audience out there, they're conflating two very different things that are actually represent very different outcomes.

_____________________________

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 5160