Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, and Moon to line up before sunrise this weekend


On Saturday morning, look to the east-southeast between 5 a.m. and about 30 minutes before sunrise(EST). In the coming days, the warning crescent moon will thin into a slender sickle, vanishing entirely as a “new moon” arrives Tuesday night.

Where is that photo taken from?! It's incredible. We've had Venus really bright recently - don't know if that is because of a reduction in air pollution or just a normal astronomical phase.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

France finds more than 1,000 coronavirus cases on aircraft carrier
Today


https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/17/breaking-news/france-finds-more-than-1000-coronavirus-cases-on-aircraft-carrier/



"PARIS >> The French navy is investigating how the coronavirus infected more than 1,000 sailors aboard the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, amid growing pressure on government leaders to explain how it could have happened.

The ship, France’s biggest carrier and the flagship of its navy, is undergoing a lengthy disinfection process since returning to its home base in Toulon five days ago.

One person remains in intensive care and some 20 others hospitalized, navy spokesman Cmdr. Eric Lavault told The Associated Press."

Ships seem to be supplying a good look at what this virus will do in closed communities without social distancing in place.

Defense Minister Florence Parly told lawmakers that 1,081 of the 2,300 people aboard the Charles de Gaulle and its escort vessels have tested positive so far — nearly half the overall personnel.

The defense minister defended the decision to allow the ship to stop in Brest in mid-March, even though France had already ordered all schools closed to fight the virus and the government was preparing confinement measures. Hours after the ship left, President Emmanuel Macron announced a nationwide lockdown, among the strictest in Europe.

In a span of probably 3-4 weeks about half of the crew were infected and have been tested as positive. As above, it looks like the young crew are doing better than the demographic on cruise ships, with only one removed to ICU, and twenty others bad enough for admission to a hospital from 1,081.

In virtually every country it's been moving through the same must be true in the first weeks of exposure. So how many have really been exposed, infected and didn't even know it?

If we're going (mostly) by cases severe enough to have symptoms, then allowed to be tested, actual numbers may be much, much higher than we're looking at every day. I'm starting to wonder if that Oxford study might have more to it than it seemed.

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ORIGINAL: Encircled

Another Johnson cheerleading paper reporting that oxygen supplies are being rationed.

We are in big trouble over here because the government has been used to be able to blame somebody else for stuff going wrong.

They are finding out that doesn't work with real stuff like this.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Encircled

Another Johnson cheerleading paper reporting that oxygen supplies are being rationed.

We are in big trouble over here because the government has been used to be able to blame somebody else for stuff going wrong.

They are finding out that doesn't work with real stuff like this.

It's becoming increasingly farcical over here isn't it. Nobody seems willing to make any decisions or take responsibility for fear that they will be the fall guy once Johnson is back.

If Johnson is out of the picture for the foreseeable I think we are getting into 'government of national unity' territory. Potentially with Starmer as the guy at the top but with a Tory cabinet below him. So we can actually get on with doing stuff and give all the politicians the leg-room to blame the other guy if things don't go to plan.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

OXYGEN being rationed.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Just buy some from the French. The can ship it cryogenic trucks. Sure,they might want money but just borrow it. That's what we do.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Just buy some from the French. The can ship it cryogenic trucks. Sure,they might want money but just borrow it. That's what we do.

My understanding of the situation is that we have plenty of oxygen itself but the delivery systems are substandard. There was a report a few days ago suggesting that if the delivery systems being used hit capacity they wouldn't switch to providing less oxygen across the board but would start shutting down entirely without warning. This article is from 10 days ago - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-oxygen-hospitals-nhs-cases-a9451751.html

Grim stuff

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ORIGINAL: Encircled

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Just buy some from the French. The can ship it cryogenic trucks. Sure,they might want money but just borrow it. That's what we do.

My understanding of the situation is that we have plenty of oxygen itself but the delivery systems are substandard. There was a report a few days ago suggesting that if the delivery systems being used hit capacity they wouldn't switch to providing less oxygen across the board but would start shutting down entirely without warning. This article is from 10 days ago - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-oxygen-hospitals-nhs-cases-a9451751.html

Grim stuff

Christ, I'd never even heard about that.

For the telegraph to printing it shows how badly its getting though.

Its actually a bit of relief that its the delivery system, as there won't be a shortage of portable oxygen and tanks one would think.

Still bad though.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Everyone is already walking in my neighborhood. One of the neighbors is even practicing social distancing by bagging up the dog **** and throwing it over my fence. While I am doing telehealth visits I watch to see who has blue dog **** bags and who is carrying one on the way back up the street. This incentive is helping to maintain my mental health.

I drive through Irvine on the way to work. The whole city is out exercising. It's amazing. City and County and State parks and beaches are closed and they police them. You could easily drive 100 mph on the freeways if you are willing to risk a ticket. There is very little traffic. Mostly trucks

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ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[In reply to RFalvo:]
[...snip...]
This is the third time a forumite has raised the "additional deaths" argument against those he disagrees with. That's....well, any word inserted is too charged. Put it this way - it's a loathsome way to try and make points, suggesting that others favor or are responsible for or will cause deaths.

I'll address this, because I think that it is an important point.

I disagree that this approach is "loathsome".

This virus is putting all of us in a very unique situation: we all could become a loaded gun; a gun that "shoots" when it wants, not us.

OK, I'll look inside my country only. As I told (dozens of pages ago) when Lombardy declared the quarantine scores of people "escaped" to Southern Italy. Right on cue, after the average incubation period, cases in S.Italy spiked. This is on those people.

Then me. A few days ago I suffered from a mild case of hay fever: mild running nose, coughing, red eyes and a mild fever, for two days.

Now, rationally I knew that it was my usual hay fever... possibly. Truth was: "What if this is CODIV19?" And I didn't thought about me. I thought about my daughter, about her boyfriend, about her boyfriend's parents... and so on.

Like it or not, we all are now a potential viral scatter gun. You want to kill yourself? Fine. But don't involve others in this decision.

And all of this is new: a new way for suffering and death to happen. It doesn't cancel the others. But, by not denying this, at least we can do something about this.

But, wait... let's pull back a bit and examine this "more people die under a bus than from Coronavirus" sentence that it is being passed around like a magic formula. Let's try to look at it from a different perspective.

You are the bus driver.

You took an exam. You have procedures to follow. If you act recklessly you will cause for more people to suffer and die.

... you will cause for more people to suffer and die. On top of all other reasons.

There is a reason as why they nail you if you are DUIing.

Sorry, but this is how I see it. Men always fought (*) to reduce causes of death. Now there is a new one. What we can do? I'm open to suggestions, ideas and even criticism (as long as it is factual and constructive). I'm not open to consider our attitudes towards Coronavirus "political" or "too charged words to consider". We.Can.Act.

Give me graphs but also give me ideas. Ideas based on the hard facts, and actions based to these, not to vague "beliefs" born in another era, because the current one is unprecedented. The faster we recognise this, the sooner we will be across. Then we will think about the other bridges.

(*) Yes, I'm aware of the implicit irony.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe




Hasn't Italy, especially Northern Italy, have had problems with influenza outbreaks overwhelming the healthcare system?

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Some patients needing under 5 or 6 LPM can by with a portable concentrator

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ORIGINAL: Nomad

An article with an interesting conclusion. https://townhall.com/columnists/marinamedvin/2020/04/15/israeli-professor-shows-virus-follows-fixed-pattern-n2566915

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"“Is the coronavirus expansion exponential? The answer by the numbers is simple: no. Expansion begins exponentially but fades quickly after about eight weeks,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concluded. The reason why coronavirus follows a fixed pattern is yet unknown. "I have no explanation,” he told Mako, “There are is kinds of speculation: maybe it's climate-related, maybe the virus has its own life cycle.” "

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe




Hasn't Italy, especially Northern Italy, have had problems with influenza outbreaks overwhelming the healthcare system?

I think that, with the exception of Germany and the Scandinavian countries, Western European health systems are run on a 'just in time' basis. So they are all vulnerable to spikes in demand - whether it be from a particularly bad flu season or from something like the 2003 heatwave which caused c.35,000 deaths in Europe.

The idea in theory is that if something exceptional happens central government funnels money in to give a short term fix. That's why the Washington projections for the UK went from 60k deaths to 20k deaths - we basically threw a whole load of money and logistics into massively increasing our ICU capacity temporarily.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

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ORIGINAL: Nomad

An article with an interesting conclusion. https://townhall.com/columnists/marinamedvin/2020/04/15/israeli-professor-shows-virus-follows-fixed-pattern-n2566915

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"“Is the coronavirus expansion exponential? The answer by the numbers is simple: no. Expansion begins exponentially but fades quickly after about eight weeks,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concluded. The reason why coronavirus follows a fixed pattern is yet unknown. "I have no explanation,” he told Mako, “There are is kinds of speculation: maybe it's climate-related, maybe the virus has its own life cycle.” "

Interesting article. I've seen no comments on it.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Just a visual of US uneployment...?

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe




Hasn't Italy, especially Northern Italy, have had problems with influenza outbreaks overwhelming the healthcare system?

I think that, with the exception of Germany and the Scandinavian countries, Western European health systems are run on a 'just in time' basis. So they are all vulnerable to spikes in demand - whether it be from a particularly bad flu season or from something like the 2003 heatwave which caused c.35,000 deaths in Europe.

The idea in theory is that if something exceptional happens central government funnels money in to give a short term fix. That's why the Washington projections for the UK went from 60k deaths to 20k deaths - we basically threw a whole load of money and logistics into massively increasing our ICU capacity temporarily.

The Japanese "just in time" system works for automobile manufacturing when you can predict how many Toyota Camry red leather seats you need. It does not work for needed maintenance or upgrades on health care infrastructure which might takes months to install or custom build. It also does not work for vents or PPE when everyone in the world is trying to buy the stuff at the same time.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Hasn't Italy, especially Northern Italy, have had problems with influenza outbreaks overwhelming the healthcare system?

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

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ORIGINAL: Nomad

An article with an interesting conclusion. https://townhall.com/columnists/marinamedvin/2020/04/15/israeli-professor-shows-virus-follows-fixed-pattern-n2566915

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"“Is the coronavirus expansion exponential? The answer by the numbers is simple: no. Expansion begins exponentially but fades quickly after about eight weeks,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concluded. The reason why coronavirus follows a fixed pattern is yet unknown. "I have no explanation,” he told Mako, “There are is kinds of speculation: maybe it's climate-related, maybe the virus has its own life cycle.” "

Interesting article. I've seen no comments on it.

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ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Hasn't Italy, especially Northern Italy, have had problems with influenza outbreaks overwhelming the healthcare system?

Not that I'm aware of. Nothing that made the big news, like an emergency, AFAIK.

Italy usually has 2,500,000-3,000,000 flu cases every year, starting in late october and peaking in mid-January. Northern Italy has always more cases than the Mid-South, but it is also more populate and people travel more.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Hasn't Italy, especially Northern Italy, have had problems with influenza outbreaks overwhelming the healthcare system?

Not that I'm aware of. Nothing that made the big news, like an emergency, AFAIK.

Italy usually has 2,500,000-3,000,000 flu cases every year, starting in late october and peaking in mid-January. Northern Italy has always more cases than the Mid-South, but it is also more populate and people travel more.

It's a long way back in this thread now but I remember looking at comparative deaths/1000 people for influenza/pneumonia and Italy and Spain I think were the 2nd and 3rd highest in the world (can't remember which way round). At that time I discounted the link because #1 by a fair way was Japan who have been doing very well compared to elsewhere.

Let me know if you want me to dig up the link - it'll take a fair bit of internet history 'archaeology'!

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ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Hasn't Italy, especially Northern Italy, have had problems with influenza outbreaks overwhelming the healthcare system?

Not that I'm aware of. Nothing that made the big news, like an emergency, AFAIK.

Italy usually has 2,500,000-3,000,000 flu cases every year, starting in late october and peaking in mid-January. Northern Italy has always more cases than the Mid-South, but it is also more populate and people travel more.

It's a long way back in this thread now but I remember looking at comparative deaths/1000 people for influenza/pneumonia and Italy and Spain I think were the 2nd and 3rd highest in the world (can't remember which way round). At that time I discounted the link because #1 by a fair way was Japan who have been doing very well compared to elsewhere.

Let me know if you want me to dig up the link - it'll take a fair bit of internet history 'archaeology'!

because the COVID19 emergency really exploded out of nowhere and there was a lot of chaos in classify what was what during those first days...