Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Only if the virus doesn't beat you first. In the case of COVID-19, large portions of nursing home populations won't have the opportunity to develop herd immunity if they die en masse from a point source introduction. One of the most frustrating things about this disparity in clinical disease/mortality is how young carriers of the agent are entirely unaffected while the most susceptible die with alarming alacrity. Nasty wicked problem.

Did you see Switzerland's studies were children can not carry enough of the virus to actually pass it on someone else?

Although studies may exist, I know of two cases among friends here in London where children did pass it on to adults, their parents. In one, our good friend, the one and a half year old toddler had a mild cough and a moderate temperature, much like a cold. She then caught it and because her brother is a doctor, got a test immediately, which was positive. She's in her late 30s and recovered after some scary days, but nothing that made her go to hospital.

I've be vey interesting to read the Swiss study of course, since I've got one and another on the way, and the 3 yr old will be heading back to nursery soon. There is no distancing of under fives.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

My impression of the day-to-day US state figures is that they are all over the place, particularly in terms of deaths. Worldometers has Louisiana going from 126 deaths yesterday to 2 today. I am now just looking at the overall US figures and in terms of individual states the comparison between total reported deaths and the predicted total figures for that day from the Washington models.

Exactly. So using this map, taking into account mobility, accessibility, randomness...

Confirmed cases 886,047
(Today: +16,877)

A starting point..

I'd say ~x8 higher of infected people.

I'm a little cautious of that map as it is showing total case numbers and not case numbers/capita.

If I was going to give a layman's estimate of 'real' prevalence I'd be going along with something close to your estimate - something like 90% of cases going unreported. If that was right then the US would be up be up to c.9M infections - or 2.5% of the US population. Even if you took it up to 99% of cases being unreported that still only gets up to 25% of the population.

Personally I'm very sceptical of suggestions that the big countries in Europe are running at even 10% rates of infection. Put bluntly a person can only die once. In addition it seems fairly sensible to suggest that the more vulnerable you are the quicker you will die. So the higher the real prevalence the bigger and quicker the drop off you will see in deaths from peak. That doesn't seem to be what we are seeing in Spain/Italy where there has been a drop off from the peak daily deaths but then a settling of daily deaths at around 400/day. That's in the context of lockdown measures that have been in place for well over a month.

This has numbers/capita. The NY Times has a load of good map graphics here.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

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A Long Island bicyclist who confronted CNN anchor Chris Cuomo for not self-quarantining with the coronavirus earlier this month told "Tucker Carlson Tonight" Friday that he thought the 49-year-old "Cuomo Prime Time" host had "roid rage" and was potentially "dangerous."

"It was Easter Sunday evening, it was chilly and cold," David Whelan recalled. "I grew up about 1,000 feet from where he [Cuomo] is building his new house, which is nothing but a steel frame [at this point].

"I go by, down the trail that runs past where his new structure is being built and there's a bunch of people there," Whelan continued. "I've been riding for seven or eight miles, take a little break, and am just walking. And a woman says 'May I help you?' I said 'No, I'm just looking'."

At that point, Whelan said, he thought he recognized Cuomo, who announced March 31 that he had tested positive for coronavirus. Whelan said he asked Cuomo if he had the coronavirus and was supposed to be in self-quarantine.

"I think his next words were, 'What the hell do you know about this? What do you know about the rules?'," the cyclist recalled.

Whelan told host Tucker Carlson that his daughter is a physician at Johns Hopkins University and he has become accustomed to noticing and calling out violations of social distancing guidelines.

"He continued to come closer and closer, and I would like to say he's like a boiling pot, you could see his head," Whelan recalled. "He was just getting more and more angry. And I said, 'So are you gonna lose your temper like you did on the guy at Shelter Island?'"

At a private event last year in the Hamptons community, Cuomo was caught on tape swearing profusely at a man who called him "Fredo," a reference to the weak, younger Corleone brother in "The Godfather." At the time, Cuomo claimed he was the victim of an anti-Italian slur and appeared to threaten to "throw [the man] down [a flight of] stairs" and "f---ing ruin [his] s--t."

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't bowl, don't have tattoos, and learned to cut my own hair last week, so the easing of countermeasures in Georgia won't affect me (yet).

I've heard in depth analysis as to why the state is doing what it's doing. While I would've waited, the explanations are sensible. I'm pretty optimistic about how it will go and optimistic that the medical community has the capacity to handle flair ups. And a lot of people are reacting cautiously to the easing anyhow - showing their own autonomous feelings on the matter. So what's going on isn't going to be much.

And it'll be a good test run, helping other states get a feel for whether this is the time and way to do things.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

My dog brought a dead baby rabbit into the house today. It was so small she had in her mouth like a wad of chewing tobacco.
She either wanted me to cook it... or ...she wanted to trade it for ice cream.

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

My dog brought a dead baby rabbit into the house today. It was so small she had in her mouth like a wad of chewing tobacco.
She either wanted me to cook it... or ...she wanted to trade it for ice cream.

Did you trade?

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't bowl, don't have tattoos, and learned to cut my own hair last week, so the easing of countermeasures in Georgia won't affect me (yet).

I've heard in depth analysis as to why the state is doing what it's doing. While I would've waited, the explanations are sensible. I'm pretty optimistic about how it will go and optimistic that the medical community has the capacity to handle flair ups. And a lot of people are reacting cautiously to the easing anyhow - showing their own autonomous feelings on the matter. So what's going on isn't going to be much.

And it'll be a good test run, helping other states get a feel for whether this is the time and way to do things.

Slacker! I've been cutting my own hair for years.

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ORIGINAL: 22sec

Looking at my state of Mississippi on this map, and then looking at the cases per 1M, and the test per 1M it is interesting to determine if this accurately portrays the situation here. The state is over 18,000 tests per 1M, which is above the national average, and cases per 1M is at 1,800 which is below the national average. How does that information jive with the NYT county map? I honestly don't have an answer, and really over the last couple of weeks I have stopped using these kinds of numbers to asses the situation. I am curious if anyone else has an opinion on the apparent disconnect between the NYT county map, and the numbers when looked at statewide? Also, how does the number of test, which seems to be in line with the ongoing discussion here about testing, help understand the situation?

On a side note, I have been impressed with our director of the Health Department, and the work he and they department have done. In addition to providing very sensible answers at the regular press conferences with the governor, MSDH has been releasing a ton of extra data each day. The two sets I have found most useful are:


https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-onset-23.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-hospitalizations-by-date-23.png

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Only if the virus doesn't beat you first. In the case of COVID-19, large portions of nursing home populations won't have the opportunity to develop herd immunity if they die en masse from a point source introduction. One of the most frustrating things about this disparity in clinical disease/mortality is how young carriers of the agent are entirely unaffected while the most susceptible die with alarming alacrity. Nasty wicked problem.

Did you see Switzerland's studies were children can not carry enough of the virus to actually pass it on someone else?

Although studies may exist, I know of two cases among friends here in London where children did pass it on to adults, their parents. In one, our good friend, the one and a half year old toddler had a mild cough and a moderate temperature, much like a cold. She then caught it and because her brother is a doctor, got a test immediately, which was positive. She's in her late 30s and recovered after some scary days, but nothing that made her go to hospital.

I've be vey interesting to read the Swiss study of course, since I've got one and another on the way, and the 3 yr old will be heading back to nursery soon. There is no distancing of under fives.

I understand your concern, but how is it known the toddler caught the illness first or that they weren't infected by different sources.

This is from April 20th https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quickly-do-covid-19-symptoms-develop-and-how-long-do-they-last :

It is not always possible to know when people were first infected, especially if they may have received several 'doses' of virus.
There seems to be significant variation in the length of time it takes people to develop symptoms.
Some countries only test (and confirm) coronavirus in people with severe infection, and it's not known if the incubation period for people with critical/severe/moderate/mild infection is different.
It's thought that many people do not develop symptoms (they are 'asymptomatic') so there are no symptoms to count back from.
However, one study has looked at confirmed cases from 50 provinces, regions and countries outside Wuhan, where it was possible to identify a single source of infection. They found that:

The median incubation period (half of all cases occur before this time and half after) was 5.1 days.
97.5% of people who develop symptoms will have got them within 11.5 days.

----

The idea of getting several doses of the virus from different sources seems to have merit.

I seriously question data and numbers provided by China (and Pennsylvania!) and perhaps these doctors do to, and the study is accurate.

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

OK - that was an image I did not need to see posted.....

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

witpqs, after his most recent haircut.

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't bowl, don't have tattoos, and learned to cut my own hair last week, so the easing of countermeasures in Georgia won't affect me (yet).

I've heard in depth analysis as to why the state is doing what it's doing. While I would've waited, the explanations are sensible. I'm pretty optimistic about how it will go and optimistic that the medical community has the capacity to handle flair ups. And a lot of people are reacting cautiously to the easing anyhow - showing their own autonomous feelings on the matter. So what's going on isn't going to be much.

And it'll be a good test run, helping other states get a feel for whether this is the time and way to do things.

Slacker! I've been cutting my own hair for years.

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store support press newsletter

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ORIGINAL: 22sec





Looking at my state of Mississippi on this map, and then looking at the cases per 1M, and the test per 1M it is interesting to determine if this accurately portrays the situation here. The state is over 18,000 tests per 1M, which is above the national average, and cases per 1M is at 1,800 which is below the national average. How does that information jive with the NYT county map? I honestly don't have an answer, and really over the last couple of weeks I have stopped using these kinds of numbers to asses the situation. I am curious if anyone else has an opinion on the apparent disconnect between the NYT county map, and the numbers when looked at statewide? Also, how does the number of test, which seems to be in line with the ongoing discussion here about testing, help understand the situation?

On a side note, I have been impressed with our director of the Health Department, and the work he and they department have done. In addition to providing very sensible answers at the regular press conferences with the governor, MSDH has been releasing a ton of extra data each day. The two sets I have found most useful are:


https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-onset-23.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-hospitalizations-by-date-23.png

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Many teachers at my school in London would not go back in,

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Only if the virus doesn't beat you first. In the case of COVID-19, large portions of nursing home populations won't have the opportunity to develop herd immunity if they die en masse from a point source introduction. One of the most frustrating things about this disparity in clinical disease/mortality is how young carriers of the agent are entirely unaffected while the most susceptible die with alarming alacrity. Nasty wicked problem.

Did you see Switzerland's studies were children can not carry enough of the virus to actually pass it on someone else?

Although studies may exist, I know of two cases among friends here in London where children did pass it on to adults, their parents. In one, our good friend, the one and a half year old toddler had a mild cough and a moderate temperature, much like a cold. She then caught it and because her brother is a doctor, got a test immediately, which was positive. She's in her late 30s and recovered after some scary days, but nothing that made her go to hospital.

I've be vey interesting to read the Swiss study of course, since I've got one and another on the way, and the 3 yr old will be heading back to nursery soon. There is no distancing of under fives.

I understand your concern, but how is it known the toddler caught the illness first or that they weren't infected by different sources.

This is from April 20th https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quickly-do-covid-19-symptoms-develop-and-how-long-do-they-last :

It is not always possible to know when people were first infected, especially if they may have received several 'doses' of virus.
There seems to be significant variation in the length of time it takes people to develop symptoms.
Some countries only test (and confirm) coronavirus in people with severe infection, and it's not known if the incubation period for people with critical/severe/moderate/mild infection is different.
It's thought that many people do not develop symptoms (they are 'asymptomatic') so there are no symptoms to count back from.
However, one study has looked at confirmed cases from 50 provinces, regions and countries outside Wuhan, where it was possible to identify a single source of infection. They found that:

The median incubation period (half of all cases occur before this time and half after) was 5.1 days.
97.5% of people who develop symptoms will have got them within 11.5 days.

----

The idea of getting several doses of the virus from different sources seems to have merit.

I seriously question data and numbers provided by China (and Pennsylvania!) and perhaps these doctors do to, and the study is accurate.

Sure. It's always possible. In this case it really does point fairly certainly to the toddler as the source of the virus for the mother.

They are in our nursery but in the lower age room. We took our daughter out a week before the schools closed since my work had transitioned to home already. They stayed in another 3 days of the following week. They then packed up and travelled to the country house they'd been fixing up. Just the three, mum, dad and toddler.

About five days after arriving, the toddler became sick. He was sick for about 4-5 days, but very mildly. The mother became sick after his symptoms tapered off. Just a little cough, then a slight temperature and she was mild for about 5 days. Her brother the doctor got a test for her which was positive. It seemed to begin to get better, then after another two days got worse. Felt like it moved to her chest. The brother prescribed her antibiotics and after about three more days she began to feel better and the cough tapered off.

So unless she caught it from an independent source and her incubation was very long, it sure seems like it came from the toddler.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Many teachers at my school in London would not go back in,

I really wonder how that feeling would change if it cost them their careers. Not maliciously, but as a simple consequence of the virus and Govt actions, their careers would have to be reset to beginning...i.e. having to go retrain, re-certify, re-whatever and start back at a starting wage or even have to start a brand new career because of the Gov't classify which careers are safe and which are shut down.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Many teachers at my school in London would not go back in,

I really wonder how that feeling would change if it cost them their careers. Not maliciously, but as a simple consequence of the virus and Govt actions, their careers would have to be reset to beginning...i.e. having to go retrain, re-certify, re-whatever and start back at a starting wage or even have to start a brand new career because of the Gov't classify which careers are safe and which are shut down.

I assume it would be industrial action through the unions and so whilst they would not be paid (at least up to the summer holidays in mid July) their jobs would be safe.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John Dillworth hasn't logged onto the forum in two weeks. I've sent him a PM, hoping that him and his family are fine. As most people here know, he leads an emergency NY City agency, so has been closely involved in that city's fight against the virus.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

This one is more telling though in light of re-openings happening and being considered in various places. The counties here will show a more exact number on rollover for the doubling rate, some of the dark ones being more like 1.5-4.5 days rather than 7. I'm going many local mayors and county governments encourage continued distancing and slow, slow opening procedures in some places where the rates of increase are higher.

Alpina county MI for instance is shown to be on pace to double its cases 1.5 days. Walker County in Georgia in 2.5 days. Williams county Ohio is every 3 days. Grayson county KY is every 3.5 days. Finney county Kansas is every 3.5 days. Simpson county in MS is every 4.5 days.

So check the link and source more detail.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Many teachers at my school in London would not go back in,

I really wonder how that feeling would change if it cost them their careers. Not maliciously, but as a simple consequence of the virus and Govt actions, their careers would have to be reset to beginning...i.e. having to go retrain, re-certify, re-whatever and start back at a starting wage or even have to start a brand new career because of the Gov't classify which careers are safe and which are shut down.

I assume it would be industrial action through the unions and so whilst they would not be paid (at least up to the summer holidays in mid July) their jobs would be safe.

I am trying to make a hypothetical assertion...IF the virus and govt action effectively cost them their career (as it certainly has in many other job vocations) would they sing a different tune?

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Many teachers at my school in London would not go back in,

I really wonder how that feeling would change if it cost them their careers. Not maliciously, but as a simple consequence of the virus and Govt actions, their careers would have to be reset to beginning...i.e. having to go retrain, re-certify, re-whatever and start back at a starting wage or even have to start a brand new career because of the Gov't classify which careers are safe and which are shut down.

I assume it would be industrial action through the unions and so whilst they would not be paid (at least up to the summer holidays in mid July) their jobs would be safe.

I am trying to make a hypothetical assertion...IF the virus and govt action effectively cost them their career (as it certainly has in many other job vocations) would they sing a different tune?

I still don't get you? If their job had gone then they wouldn't need to worry about it being safe or not.

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Many teachers at my school in London would not go back in,

I really wonder how that feeling would change if it cost them their careers. Not maliciously, but as a simple consequence of the virus and Govt actions, their careers would have to be reset to beginning...i.e. having to go retrain, re-certify, re-whatever and start back at a starting wage or even have to start a brand new career because of the Gov't classify which careers are safe and which are shut down.

I assume it would be industrial action through the unions and so whilst they would not be paid (at least up to the summer holidays in mid July) their jobs would be safe.

I am trying to make a hypothetical assertion...IF the virus and govt action effectively cost them their career (as it certainly has in many other job vocations) would they sing a different tune?

I still don't get you? If their job had gone then they wouldn't need to worry about it being safe or not.

I think inherent in Lowpe's hypothetical situation is a point at which the School Board (whomever runs it) says, it's time to come back to work or be laid off with no future consideration of seniority on re-hire.
He is suggesting that if the authorities made the choice that stark, the protests would cease. That sort of use of power may be accepted in some US states, but I don't think it would fly in the US or Canada because the Unions have legal recourse regarding being told to work in unsafe conditions.