obvert
Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011 From: PDX (and now) London, UK Status: offline
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Here in London the UK has moved to second stage of the govt's plan, with criticism coming from both experts and of course opposition parties about the lack of more extreme measures. My school closed today due to a parent testing positive. Interestingly the school was not notified but saw it first on the BBC. The parent is Mikel Arteta, head football coach for Arsenal. This may lead to an extended closure but it will definitely lead a a deep clean and many families self-isolating children, many teachers staying home, and the community slowly shrinking even if open. This has been a great thread, and really good for all of us to keep abreast of things. We will disagree, but hopefully we can agree to steer toward the middle of the road on politics and just talk about stats, hopes, fears, protections, etc. The GreyJoy note actually made me feel a bit resigned to my situation, which is all of our situations. For those who have not travelled a lot, or may think one country is better positioned than others, it's really not a useful comparison now. The reality is this is now being spoken of by those who are experts as something that will be around for a good while even if current outbreaks reach peaks and decline in the near future as China has done. It will by all accounts be back in the autumn in the North, affect the Southern Hemisphere more severely over the next five to six months, and may even mutate into unknown strains. If my wife wasn't about to give birth I would hope to just get it now and go through whatever happens, as this is very likely during the next 12 months anyway. Right now only .0015% of the UK population most likely are positive (using Boris' speculative high estimate of 10k current cases). There are a higher proportion in London for sure, so maybe .005% of London's population are now infected. It is still statistically rare, and my chances of dying from falling down the stairs are probably around the same as dying from this in my current health condition. That isn't the point though. It's a time to take care for those more vulnerable, those who have been unlucky in contraction and severity, and those who have no choice but to be exposed in their work as health care professionals and public safety professionals.
< Message edited by obvert -- 3/13/2020 9:46:59 AM >
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"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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