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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 4:45:51 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Only China and Korea made managed to slow this down. What did they do? Quarantine. They found home confinement useless. They test every one. If you have it, or have a fever, you are sent to a fever clinic. No choice. Home confinement has only led to families becoming infected. We are still in denial. Shut everything down. Test everyone. Isolate the sick or infected. China and Korea are doing a fine job of feeding their people and they have far less food resources than we do. What’s your plan? Wait for it to go away? Have the Federal reserve do another rate cut? It’s here and it is spreading at an exponential rate. Harsh measures are in order. Or maybe it’s time for a rude tweet? We have no real plan to slow the infection rate. This is not an economical problem. We need science here. In NY state we have 28 labs ready and fully equipped to start testing. The only thing holding up that testing is the Federal Government needs to approve testing. So far they have refused! 28 labs ready to test and the Federal Government will not approve! This is madness


I know. Take everyone and their families who has the virus and put them in camps surrounded by barbed wire. Take their personal possessions away from them and either destroy those possessions or sterilize them. If they are sterilized, then sell them at local thrift stores since there won't be any new goods going through the distribution system to regular stores.

The people in camps will be allowed to work but won't be fed enough due to corruption as well as the attitude "They are going to die anyway!" Since their personal clothing is now gone and they are in camps, give them all a unique outfit so they can easily be seen if they should leave the camps. Since they are going to die and their bodies may still carry the disease, have large cremation ovens. Since they are going to be cremated, make sure that any gold teeth are removed.

The guards should all have a nice uniform. Maybe a nice black (for mourning) with nice black boots. To show where they work so people will respect them, have a symbol like a skull (to show that they work around death) on their uniform.

To insure that the rest of the population stays in line, how about have check points where police check peoples papers to make sure that they are actually allowed to travel? With corona virus 19 checks as well? With secret police in plain clothes everywhere as well?

Is that what you want?


A little hysterical, no? Oh, and you forgot the part where big GUB-MINT takes you guns away


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 4:49:58 PM   
Q-Ball


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I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure

< Message edited by Q-Ball -- 3/12/2020 4:50:29 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 4:50:42 PM   
Kull


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Yes, that was exactly my point - that the mortality rates we've seen so far can easily rise if not enough hospital beds are available for those who need them. With good hospital care, it's mostly only the elderly or chronically ill who are dying, but there are many others who are being hospitalized. If a smaller percentage can access good hospital care while sick, their chance of a good outcome will decrease.

Regards,

- Erik




You are, of course, talking about the famous "flatten the curve" chart (see item #1 on the attachment). Of course, the key item on that chart which doesn't get quite as much attention is that it doesn't correlate the two curves - what exactly are the "protective measure" which will drop it down to "healthcare capacity"?

Less widely promulgated is another curve chart (#2) which shows the way a single intervention method ("social distancing") can flatten the curve (and the risks associated with issuing an "all clear").

What remains to be seen is whether other strategies can have a similar effect. Because right now all the really scary forecasts seem to be based on the "no measures" curve.

(Edited for clarity)





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/12/2020 4:56:11 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 4:51:49 PM   
geofflambert


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This is disturbing:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 4:52:13 PM   
Zorch

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure

Dr. Strangelove would agree with you, from the bottom of a mine shaft.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 4:52:28 PM   
traskott


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Here in Spain we are at the rise of the wave. Problem is the pointed by Erik. Mortality isn't high...asuming you have a doctor, a bed at hospital.... but with more ill people than beds... someone got no aid so it's at risk of death, and then is when danger appears.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 4:55:17 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

This is disturbing:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most

Oh, great! You post a link that wants $29 for the privilege of viewing ... what's your cut?

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:06:38 PM   
geofflambert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

This is disturbing:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most

Oh, great! You post a link that wants $29 for the privilege of viewing ... what's your cut?


Sorry, digital media is getting to be a pain. You can't find a pic anymore without "alamy stock photo" or "Getty images" all over it.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:08:35 PM   
Canoerebel


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From WHO yesterday, when announcing the upgrade to "pandemic" status: "Of the 118,000 cases reported globally in 114 countries, more than 90 percent of cases are in just four countries, and two of those – China and the Republic of Korea - have significantly declining epidemics." [emphasis added]

This is consistent with the information coming from Johns Hopkins, which we've been posting here regularly. That's good news. China and South Korea have faced the onslaught, handled it, and survived.

*A link to the WHO transcript from 3/11/20: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:08:37 PM   
geofflambert


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Apparently things are a lot worse in Iran than has been reported by them. The Chinese numbers are also screwy, most of their confirmed cases are listed as "recovered". That's just plain nonsense.

< Message edited by geofflambert -- 3/12/2020 5:09:54 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:14:52 PM   
Canoerebel


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WHO, Johns Hopkins, The New York Times, and a host of other outlets are meticulously reporting data from around the world every day, including China. All of them indicate the same info about the number of total cases, deaths, and recoveries in China....but Geoff concludes "that's just plain nonsense."

I'm an optimist without credentials. Geoff is a pessimist without credentials.


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:17:05 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Apparently things are a lot worse in Iran than has been reported by them. The Chinese numbers are also screwy, most of their confirmed cases are listed as "recovered". That's just plain nonsense.

I think it is possible - the outbreak started in China back around Christmas 2019. Given a couple of months spreading and a couple of months recovering from the illness they should have the majority of infected persons recovered by now.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:28:24 PM   
geofflambert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

WHO, Johns Hopkins, The New York Times, and a host of other outlets are meticulously reporting data from around the world every day, including China. All of them indicate the same info about the number of total cases, deaths, and recoveries in China....but Geoff concludes "that's just plain nonsense."

I'm an optimist without credentials. Geoff is a pessimist without credentials.




Well, they are well ahead of us (this from https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-testing-problems-timeline-2020-3)


China developed a blood test that looked for specific antibodies produced by the body to fend off the virus. The test worked even for patients in recovery, whereas PCR tests (the kind developed in the US) can only diagnose patients when they're ill.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:30:05 PM   
Canoerebel


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So it's not nonsense?

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:31:43 PM   
Canoerebel


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Here's the latest Johns Hopkins map, from about 9:30 a.m. today.

It's interesting to scroll back through this thread and see previous Johns Hopkins screengrabs.

A lot of news outlets and others are using this source now. Sometimes, it's slow to load.




Attachment (1)

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:37:48 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Well, the numbers are as good as the reporting. The Washington Post is posting photos of burial pits in Iran that you can see from space. The Satellite photos seem legit so either the photos are wrong or the reporting is wrong. What I will repeat , and none of the sites you list are disputing. The number of cases in the United States is doubling every 3 days. Simple math tells you that we can not sustain that rate. The numbers would reach into the millions by early summer. Either the curve declines or we do.

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 3/12/2020 5:41:14 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:38:40 PM   
Canoerebel


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The curve will decline.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:45:46 PM   
RangerJoe


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Your immune system fighting back against Covid-19 virus might end up killing you, explained

https://mothership.sg/2020/02/what-happens-infected-coronavirus/

and from there:

Here’s what coronavirus does to the body
From blood storms to honeycomb lungs, here’s an organ-by-organ look at how COVID-19 harms humans.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 5:49:14 PM   
geofflambert


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https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html

From 3/4. For those who get dunned for a subscription, here are the headlines:

DEC. 31
Chinese authorities treated dozens of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause.
JAN. 11
China reported its first death.
JAN. 20
Other countries, including the United States, confirmed cases.
JAN. 23
Wuhan, a city of more than 11 million, was cut off by Chinese authorities.
JAN. 30
The W.H.O. declared a global health emergency.
JAN. 31
The Trump administration restricted travel from China
FEB. 2
The first coronavirus death was reported outside China.
FEB. 5
A cruise ship in Japan quarantined thousands.
FEB. 7
A Chinese doctor who tried to raise the alarm died.
FEB. 10
The death toll in China surpassed the number SARS killed worldwide.
FEB. 13
There were more than 14,000 new cases in Hubei Province.
FEB. 14
France announces the first coronavirus death in Europe.
FEB. 17
Chinese officials draft legislation to curb the practice of eating wildlife.
FEB. 19
Hundreds leave the quarantined cruise ship.
FEB. 21
A secretive church is linked to outbreak in South Korea.
FEB. 21
The virus appears in Iran from an unknown source.
FEB. 23
Italy sees major surge in coronavirus cases and officials lock down towns.
FEB. 24
The Trump administration asks Congress for $1.25 billion for coronavirus response.
FEB. 24
Iran emerges as a second focus point of the virus.
FEB. 26
Latin America reports its first coronavirus case.
FEB. 28
The number of infections in Europe spike.
FEB. 28
Sub-Saharan Africa records its first infection.
FEB. 29
The United States records its first coronavirus death and announces travel restrictions.
MARCH 3
U.S. officials approve widespread coronavirus testing.


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 6:03:49 PM   
Q-Ball


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Since the Chinese Lunar New Year, roughly when the virus hit full bore in China, coal consumption (an indicator of economic activity) has dropped 35%, and Auto Sales have dropped 80%. 80%! We didn't see drops like that even in depths of 2008 recession.

Aside from the virus, this is going to be a very bumpy economic ride

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 6:07:41 PM   
Canoerebel


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If this manages/happens to run its course in a month or so, imagine the surge in confidence/relief/exuberance as world's economies begin to ramp up and then gain steam going into the summer and the autumn. (The longer it takes for the virus to run it's course, the less resilient the economies, in all likelihood).

But there will be all kinds of collateral damage requiring government interventions, as airlines, cruise lines, and many other industries and business suffer tremendous shocks to their cash flow.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 6:12:00 PM   
geofflambert


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Another timeline:
Below is a timeline of Trump’s comments playing down the threat posed by the virus.

Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control.”

Jan. 24: “It will all work out well.”
China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!
4:18 PM - Jan 24, 2020
Jan. 29: “Just received a briefing on the Coronavirus in China from all of our GREAT agencies, who are also working closely with China. We will continue to monitor the ongoing developments. We have the best experts anywhere in the world, and they are on top of it 24/7!”

Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for it. So that I can assure you.”

Feb. 2: “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. … We can’t have thousands of people coming in who may have this problem, the coronavirus. So we’re gonna see what happens, but we did shut it down, yes.”

Feb. 7: “Nothing is easy, but [Chinese President Xi Jinping] … will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone.”
Feb 7, 2020
Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus. He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but...
@realDonaldTrump
....he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!
5:31 AM - Feb 7, 2020
Feb. 10: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine.”

Feb. 14: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”

Feb. 19: “I think it’s going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let’s see what happens, but I think it’s going to work out fine.”

Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

@realDonaldTrump
The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!
4:42 PM - Feb 24, 2020
Feb. 25: “You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are … getting better. They’re all getting better. … As far as what we’re doing with the new virus, I think that we’re doing a great job.”

Feb. 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus, including the very early closing of our borders to certain areas of the world.”

Feb. 26: “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done."

Feb. 26:

Q: This is spreading — or is going to spread, maybe, within communities. That’s the expectation.
A: It may. It may.
Q: Does that worry you?
A: No. ... No, because we’re ready for it. It is what it is. We’re ready for it. We’re really prepared. ... We hope it doesn’t spread. There’s a chance that it won’t spread too, and there’s a chance that it will, and then it’s a question of at what level.
Feb. 27: “Only a very small number in U.S., & China numbers look to be going down. All countries working well together!”

Feb. 28: “I think it’s really going well. We did something very fortunate: we closed up to certain areas of the world very, very early — far earlier than we were supposed to. I took a lot of heat for doing it. It turned out to be the right move, and we only have 15 people and they are getting better, and hopefully they’re all better. There’s one who is quite sick, but maybe he’s gonna be fine. … We’re prepared for the worst, but we think we’re going to be very fortunate."

Feb. 28: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

Feb. 29: “We’re the number-one travel destination anywhere in the world, yet we have far fewer cases of the disease than even countries with much less travel or a much smaller population.”

March 4: “Some people will have this at a very light level and won’t even go to a doctor or hospital, and they’ll get better. There are many people like that.”
March 5: “With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths.”


@realDonaldTrump
With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!
11:34 AM - Mar 5, 2020
March 6: “We did an interview on Fox last night, a town hall. I think it was very good. And I said, ‘Calm. You have to be calm. It’ll go away.' ”

March 7: “It came out of China, and we heard about it. And made a good move: We closed it down; we stopped it. Otherwise — the head of CDC said last night that you would have thousands of more problems if we didn’t shut it down very early. That was a very early shutdown, which is something we got right."

March 8: Retweets a story about Surgeon General Jerome Adams playing down the risk of coronavirus for Trump personally.
@thedailybeast
Surgeon General Jerome Adams used his comments to downplay the risk of coronavirus to the president https://trib.al/BkZPHz3


Surgeon General to Jake Tapper: Trump Is ‘Healthier’ Than I Am
The surgeon general used his comments to downplay the risk of coronavirus to the president.
12:39 PM - Mar 8, 2020
March 9: “The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power (it used to be greater!) to inflame the CoronaVirus situation, far beyond what the facts would warrant. Surgeon General, ‘The risk is low to the average American.’ ”

March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”

@realDonaldTrump
So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!
9:47 AM - Mar 9, 2020
March 10: “As you know, it’s about 600 cases, it’s about 26 deaths, within our country. And had we not acted quickly, that number would have been substantially more.”

March 10: “And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

March 11: “I think we’re going to get through it very well.”

March 12: “It’s going to go away. ... The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.”


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 6:28:17 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Erik can say for sure, but I think he meant the overall mortality rate would be higher than otherwise if/when the health care system is overwhelmed, and that is what the experts have said IIRC. That's the news coming from Italy, too.


Yes, that was exactly my point - that the mortality rates we've seen so far can easily rise if not enough hospital beds are available for those who need them. With good hospital care, it's mostly only the elderly or chronically ill who are dying, but there are many others who are being hospitalized. If a smaller percentage can access good hospital care while sick, their chance of a good outcome will decrease.

Regards,

- Erik


One of the Public Health doctors being interviewed on a news channel mentioned that Doctors would then be forced into brutal choices. If there are three people needing a ventilator to keep them alive and only one is available, which do you choose? I have already accepted that, at my age, I would not likely be one of the chosen so my will already says "no heroic measures" and my NOK know that. Anything to make their and the physicians decision easier.


That literally is what they are already doing in Italy. That's hard news, not rumor. The government health authorities have issued written guidance on the matter.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 6:39:41 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If this manages/happens to run its course in a month or so, imagine the surge in confidence/relief/exuberance as world's economies begin to ramp up and then gain steam going into the summer and the autumn. (The longer it takes for the virus to run it's course, the less resilient the economies, in all likelihood).

But there will be all kinds of collateral damage requiring government interventions, as airlines, cruise lines, and many other industries and business suffer tremendous shocks to their cash flow.


A very big if.

Side note - I do like how you are engaging with the evidence on this. Need more of it in general.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 7:04:13 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If this manages/happens to run its course in a month or so, imagine the surge in confidence/relief/exuberance as world's economies begin to ramp up and then gain steam going into the summer and the autumn. (The longer it takes for the virus to run it's course, the less resilient the economies, in all likelihood).

But there will be all kinds of collateral damage requiring government interventions, as airlines, cruise lines, and many other industries and business suffer tremendous shocks to their cash flow.


A very big if.

Side note - I do like how you are engaging with the evidence on this. Need more of it in general.

Recommend you listen to/view the interview with the infectious disease researcher Michael Osterholm (linked earlier).

Here is the text intro of him that was given:
quote:


Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info. https://amzn.to/2IAzeLe


He was quite clear we are in for a lot more than another month. And a vaccine ready very quickly? That's just "happy talk".

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 7:06:54 PM   
witpqs


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 7:07:20 PM   
witpqs


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Some of the current country info:




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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 7:21:21 PM   
Canoerebel


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The "exponential growth curve" in China lasted from about 1/24/2020 to about 3/1/2020. Five weeks.

Western Europe is probably two or three weeks into its own exponential curve. It may last longer than China's did. How much?

The USA/Western Hemisphere is about 10 days into its exponential curve. Will it experience a similar outcome to China, or not?

The virus escaped containment and had quite a period of time of unhampered growth in China; then China instituted strong countermeasures and had a darned quick taper-off.

I don't think Western countries (Europe and USA, etc.) were bushwhacked to the extent that China was - after all, it began in China with no notice and little fanfare; in the West, a fair amount of notice and more fanfare. The West has only now instituted varying degrees of lockdown. In Europe, perhaps a week or less. In some ways, the USA is ahead, mostly because notice was taken of what was going on in Europe.

China, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and other "first gen" countries are not teetering on the brink of annihilation.

From a numbers/trends standpoint - and everything I've seen in my life about "the sky is falling" (countered by "Pollyanna" responses) plus the quality of healthcare (at least in the West), I do not foresee anything like what is being predicted.

I'm going out on limbs here. If I'm wrong, I will lack any credibility and will have to assume life as a hermit in the woods. So be it. But the numbers aren't consistent with disaster.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 7:34:00 PM   
alanschu

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
That literally is what they are already doing in Italy. That's hard news, not rumor. The government health authorities have issued written guidance on the matter.


Yeah, I was increasingly "okay best be careful" but Italy's breakdown was a definite "oh ****" moment for me.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/12/2020 7:49:23 PM   
mind_messing

 

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Experts wrong, CR right, nothing to see here.

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