Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Today is a milestone date for my state. Georgia began easing countermeasures 19 days ago, to much fanfare and criticism. Then, 14 days ago, the governor allowed many other restrictions, including shelter in place, to expire. Local and national media predicted terrible things, as typified by that Atlantic headline "Georgia begins Experiment in Human Sacrifice." John Dillworth noted (correctly) that Georgia was effectively serving as a bellwether for the rest of the country.

So far, so good. Numbers have been trending positive for a month and continue to do so. None of the calamities predicted by the press or the political opponents. Lots of things remain closed, including those who have the option of re-opening, but many people are back to work and things are ramping up gradually, which seems like a sensible way to do it. All medical systems have plenty of capacity to handle the occasional hotspots (there has been one - in Hall County, reportedly tied to a poultry-processing facility).

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Today is a milestone date for my state. Georgia began easing countermeasures 19 days ago, to much fanfare and criticism. Then, 14 days ago, the governor allowed many other restrictions, including shelter in place, to expire. Local and national media predicted terrible things, as typified by that Atlantic headline "Georgia begins Experiment in Human Sacrifice." John Dillworth noted (correctly) that Georgia was effectively serving as a bellwether for the rest of the country.

So far, so good. Numbers have been trending positive for a month and continue to do so. None of the calamities predicted by the press or the political opponents. Lots of things remain closed, including those who have the option of re-opening, but many people are back to work and things are ramping up gradually, which seems like a sensible way to do it. All medical systems have plenty of capacity to handle the occasional hotspots (there has been one - in Hall County, reportedly tied to a poultry-processing facility).

Indeed, things look promising. I've heard anecdotal evidence that while business are open, attendance at some restaurants was down considerably from mothers day last year. I've been unable to get any evidence either way. Not trying to make any point but Georgia has been hit harder than most on the lost jobs front. Don't know why Georgia lost so many jobs so fast. Anyway, see if you can find any info on actual attendance at places. I also understand bars are still closed. That seems wise because as soon as they opened them in Korea and Germany that is where the spikes were. Easy for us non-drinkers to say stuff like that I suppose but I understand that our fellow forum participants might modestly partake from time to time

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Coronavirus In Pennsylvania: Attorney General Opens Criminal Investigation Into Nursing Homes


https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/05/12/pennsylvania-attorney-general-nursing-home-coronavirus-investigations/


I have no idea where all this will end. The cynic in me -- is that the State will fully prosecute some nursing homes to divert blame from their own orders.

More information on the Sec of Health moving her 93 year old mother out of a nursing home, and into a hotel while mandating nursing homes take covid positive patients and denying them the already setup state level nursing home mitigation program.

Doesn't look good.

Meanwhile a town near me did say they are going to open up. In addition, another town turn turned down a visit from the President (and a detail of 20 security/aides) on the grounds it was too dangerous. Instead the President is visiting a company in Allentown area of Pennsylvania tomorrow. Meanwhile, Bucks County (democrat) still has not heard from the office of the Governor.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

This tactic is really go viral across the United States, I hear even states are adopting it.

Portland Public Schools plans to furlough teachers, principals, other staffers 1 day a week -- but they’d make more money not less

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2020/05/portland-public-schools-plans-to-furlough-teachers-principals-other-staffers-1-day-a-week-but-theyd-make-more-money-not-less.html

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Today is a milestone date for my state. Georgia began easing countermeasures 19 days ago, to much fanfare and criticism. Then, 14 days ago, the governor allowed many other restrictions, including shelter in place, to expire. Local and national media predicted terrible things, as typified by that Atlantic headline "Georgia begins Experiment in Human Sacrifice." John Dillworth noted (correctly) that Georgia was effectively serving as a bellwether for the rest of the country.

So far, so good. Numbers have been trending positive for a month and continue to do so. None of the calamities predicted by the press or the political opponents. Lots of things remain closed, including those who have the option of re-opening, but many people are back to work and things are ramping up gradually, which seems like a sensible way to do it. All medical systems have plenty of capacity to handle the occasional hotspots (there has been one - in Hall County, reportedly tied to a poultry-processing facility).

Indeed, things look promising. I've heard anecdotal evidence that while business are open, attendance at some restaurants was down considerably from mothers day last year. I've been unable to get any evidence either way. Not trying to make any point but Georgia has been hit harder than most on the lost jobs front. Don't know why Georgia lost so many jobs so fast. Anyway, see if you can find any info on actual attendance at places. I also understand bars are still closed. That seems wise because as soon as they opened them in Korea and Germany that is where the spikes were. Easy for us non-drinkers to say stuff like that I suppose but I understand that our fellow forum participants might modestly partake from time to time

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

....And hopefully Obvert has some good news for us (apologies if I missed an announcement).

Cheers,
CB

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A cousin just dropped by. He's an Air Force Academy graduate, longtime fighter pilot, now commercial airline pilot. His work load has been reduced but he has a sense of optimism. As he expressed it, he thinks there will be pent up demand for travel, including vacations, as things gradually returns to normal.

We both agree that there's no sense of doom and gloom in this area. No sense of pending financial catastrophe that seemed to descend with the 2008 financial crisis. That may be coming, it may be inevitable, it may be delayed as ripples are felt months and years from now. But, to this point, the population seems fairly optimistic and normal. That may be an anachronism of life in a semi-rural and small-town environment. Is it different elsewhere? Is there a sense in NYC or similar urban centers that the wheels have come off?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there a sense in NYC or similar urban centers that the wheels have come off?

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Americans don't realize that coronavirus recovery may take months

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-slow-economic-recovery-consumer-confidence-77195468-d470-4448-a185-59f11d102346.html

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll start looking now, but it shouldn't take long. The press isn't into owning up.

That's not fair. Meet the Press admitted their hatchet job last weekend. Still waiting for 60 Minutes to admit to their hatchet job.

For those not aware of what transpired, both deliberately edited out full answers provided by the Foreign Secretary and the A-G. The edited "answer" broadcast was one which allowed cheap shots at the integrity of the officials.

Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there a sense in NYC or similar urban centers that the wheels have come off?

warspite1

The wheels are off. They are no longer attached to the car but the car hasn't crashed yet as its still moving forward on momentum (Government spending) - but it's slowing. The car will stop. How exactly it stops - a painful slide or crashing and burning (or a myriad of options in between) will depend on a number of things, not least what (if anything) this virus still has in store.

But at present, there is absolutely no reason or justification for anyone feeling optimistic or normal here. In the UK the money paid out to date - even if this all stopped (which isn't going to happen) tomorrow - has to be repaid. Big employers are going to be laying off people big time as the reality sinks in and the Governments realise they can't just keep writing cheques.

Pent up demand for travel? Well quite, we all want to go back to normal don't we? But that doesn't mean people are travelling anywhere anytime soon. As I pointed out previously, just who is going to go on holiday without insurance - what insurance companies are going to start re-insuring travellers overseas on packed aircraft to destinations that are not Covid-free? How does anyone come to the UK for a holiday with a 14-day quarantine period? And its not just the travel industry.

Can this thing just die out in a short space of time, allowing us to 'gradually return to normal'? Well I don't know anything about viruses but from what I've read, no that doesn't appear likely. Look at South Korea's reaction to the nightclub incident. What happens if there is a sudden up tick in New York, London, Madrid etc?

I think anyone that thinks there is some gradual return to normal and that this is nothing like 2008 are yet to get with the program.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there a sense in NYC or similar urban centers that the wheels have come off?

warspite1

The wheels are off. They are no longer attached to the car but the car hasn't crashed yet as its still moving forward on momentum (Government spending) - but it's slowing. The car will stop. How exactly it stops - a painful slide or crashing and burning (or a myriad of options in between) will depend on a number of things, not least what (if anything) this virus still has in store.

But at present, there is absolutely no reason or justification for anyone feeling optimistic or normal here. In the UK the money paid out to date - even if this all stopped (which isn't going to happen) tomorrow - has to be repaid. Big employers are going to be laying off people big time as the reality sinks in and the Governments realise they can't just keep writing cheques.

Pent up demand for travel? Well quite, we all want to go back to normal don't we? But that doesn't mean people are travelling anywhere anytime soon. As I pointed out previously, just who is going to go on holiday without insurance - what insurance companies are going to start re-insuring travellers overseas on packed aircraft to destinations that are not Covid-free? How does anyone come to the UK for a holiday with a 14-day quarantine period? And its not just the travel industry.

Can this thing just die out in a short space of time, allowing us to 'gradually return to normal'? Well I don't know anything about viruses but from what I've read, no that doesn't appear likely. Look at South Korea's reaction to the nightclub incident. What happens if there is a sudden up tick in New York, London, Madrid etc?

I think anyone that thinks there is some gradual return to normal and that this is nothing like 2008 are yet to get with the program.

I've been waiting for the Conference Board to update the UK's LEI/CEIs. They're overdue for April. So this is the latest update as of April 11 (from March data sets). I love you guys, but this isn't a good place to start a recession from mate. You guys will have some pretty hardcore economic issues in short order. I'm sorry.

Our LEIs dropped by 6.7% last month and will drop more this month. The Conference Board needs to call the ball on this sooner rather than later-we are a recession now. Full stop.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Homer Simpson: "Mmmmmmm, Soylent Green."

That club outbreak in Seoul from 12 days ago has resulted in a total of... wait for it... 119 new infections. Here's the story: Infections linked to Itaewon clubs 'soar' to 119 [my scare quotes]

Call me optimistic, but 119 infections out of 14,121 at-risk people being tested tells me the system here is working (although the clubs' customer logbooks had a lot of bogus phone numbers, they did end up using cell phone triangulation and credit card data to track down the rest of the club goers and people nearby). Most of you gents are facing much higher numbers of new cases in your regions. Nevertheless, the government here pushed back public school openings one week. If they are going to overreact every time one of these spikes happens Little Johnny won't be seeing the inside of a classroom anytime soon.

Shout out to Cap Mandrake for meritorious service in the front lines of this outbreak. Keep up the good work, sir.

And hopefully Obvert has some good news for us (apologies if I missed an announcement).

Cheers,
CB

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

France has 14.6% mortality (total cases divided by mortality, Worldometers). Italy, UK, Belgium, Sweden and Netherlands are over 10%. Spain is right at 10%. The US at 6%. Germany at 4.4%. South Korea 2.5%. Japan 4%.

There are large numbers of cases in many countries, but mortality percentages differ greatly. Why? Tabulating criteria? Quality of medical care? Average age or underlying health conditions of patients? Population density? Environmental conditions (such as pollution)? A combination of these and/or others?

One possibility: 3.6% of Japanese are obese (BMI over 30). The correlation doesn't hold well among western nations, however, where the rate is 39% of Americans, 29% UK and 23% Germany (figures limited to adults for these three nations) - if obesity were the overriding factor, you'd expect the highest mortality rate to be in the US.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

France has 14.6% mortality (total cases divided by mortality, Worldometers). Italy, UK, Belgium, Sweden and Netherlands are over 10%. Spain is right at 10%. The US at 6%. Germany at 4.4%. South Korea 2.5%. Japan 4%.

There are large numbers of cases in many countries, but mortality percentages differ greatly. Why? Tabulating criteria? Quality of medical care? Average age or underlying health conditions of patients? Population density? Environmental conditions (such as pollution)? A combination of these and/or others?

One possibility: 3.6% of Japanese are obese (BMI over 30). The correlation doesn't hold well among western nations, however, where the rate is 39% of Americans, 29% UK and 23% Germany (figures limited to adults for these three nations) - if obesity were the overriding factor, you'd expect the highest mortality rate to be in the US.

I think that the reason is the higher number of tests per capita done because that would find more cases. More milder cases found and found sooner for appropriate medical care would mean fewer deaths per case. But what do I know, I am not a politician.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
My household has taken up baking like it is a competitive sport.

Funny you should mention that.

Our supermarkets here have resumed a sense of near normalcy for most things. A month or so ago, you'd have great difficulty in locating toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, hand sanitizer and anything with bleach as a primary ingredient. Now these things are readily available.

But I haven't been able to locate baker's yeast (instant dry yeast) anywhere in the last couple of weeks. I actually went into the store to find some (usually I use the curbside grocery pickup service to reduce exposure) last week. Empty shelves. AP flour was pretty sparse too.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka, I took another look at that chart (https://rt.live/) with regard to your comment (in bold, below). It shows Georgia Ro below 1.0 (at .83) and the confidence interval (margin of error) doesn't reach 1.0, as best I can tell.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

IHME's updated US mortality projection is 137k by August 4, if that's what you're looking for (I may not be comprehending the point you're making).

Georgia may be the bellwether for all this. We began gradually easing countermeasures 18 days ago. So far, so good. From my seat it seems like the easing wasn't premature. I gather from Chickenboy's post a few hours back that he feels the same about Texas. My daughter and son-in-law feel the same about Tennessee. But there is no doubt there are jurisdictions where easing wouldn't be prudent right now.

Yes, that's the number I was looking at.

The state-by-state transmission number over on rt.live appears to be good data, although the confidence interval for recent dates for Texas and Georgia includes values higher than 1.0 (it looks like the data is refined over time as well and is about 7-days delayed).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The press and those medically and/or politically opposed to re-opening predicted surges in new cases and morality when shelter-in-place ended in some states. But the Ro rates remain level or close thereto, including: Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Mississippi, Kansas and Idaho (source: https://rt.live/). The rates in each of those states is below 1.0, meaning the pandemic continues to decline. It's possible that the wheels may come off here or there, but to this point sky-is-falling assertions have been wrong.