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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 8:54:01 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 885
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Of course this is true and I'm sure most of the people that work in these places are trying to better their situation or if not for them, for their children. The problem is the world has changed overnight and the worker got the short end of things fairly quickly. The plants got shut down because people were getting sick. That's the right thing to do. It's what happened after that that is troubling.

As for crappy jobs? We have all had them. Ever see the guy on the road crew raking the hot asphalt out of the truck and onto the road on a blasting hot day? That was me one summer. Got great money for that......but my grades got a lot better the next semester. I don't mind a hard days work but I wasn't going to do manual labor for the rest of my life. Meat packing has a large percentage of 1st generation immigrants working those jobs. Also part of the America story. Last guy in gets the jobs nobody else wants to do, but you want better for the next generation.



Lols, John. My older brother had the same job. He said the only upside was once they came across a case of beer some underage drinkers stashed one day.

My first job was as a dishwasher. If you have just a little bit of drive and ambition you aren't stuck in that entry level job for long. I well remember my first holiday busboy earnings.

Back to meatpackers, 70% of teh beef consumed in the US is from UFCW plants. A pretty impressive number.



I used to teach a programming class and would get people from all over the world but made it to this country either by H1-B visa or by sheer force of will. These were smart, driven people, some from nasty parts of the world. That was one of my ice breaker questions. What is the worst job you ever had? Oh the things I heard. I suspect teaching those classes had more effect on me than the people I was teaching. The saddest answer, and one I got a few times, was "Worst job I ever had was no job". One answer stuck out. A guy from Trinidad. He was lucky to get a job at the Aluminum plant. This was in Trinidad. Hot as hell. His job? They gave him a broom and for 10 hours a day he was to stamp out the embers from the plant that might light the underbrush on fire surrounding the plant. Makes you realize you hit half the lottery just being born here.



Amen to that!


_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7831
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 9:00:55 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The market solution is for maltreated workers to quit and for the employer to be forced to raise wages until they can find a workforce willing to do the job.


In theory. In practice, quite different as there's someone desperate enough to work under poor conditions. As others have stated, it's not as if corporate interests were strongly interested in working conditions prior to all this...


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The market solution is for maltreated workers to quit and for the employer to be forced to raise wages until they can find a workforce willing to do the job.

It is a crappy job. I would rather pick fruit or cut lettuce or push a broom at a work site.


I don't know, as an entry level job it teaches skills...I can see climbing the ladder to a grocery store butcher. In my neck of the woods that is a very good career for someone lacking a technical college degree. I know several grocery store butchers that went on to open their own small stores...I suspect that might be a bit suspect now though.

It is not for everyone, but as a boy growing up we were always cleaning fish to eat. That has probably changed over the years.



I genuinely struggle to imagine any serious career progression from something like a meat packing plant.

Granted, there will be some decent progression through the ranks so to speak, but let's not pretend that it is the norm for some guy on the factory floor will be CEO in twenty years time.


As far as the meat packing goes, one place where a lot of undocumented (illegal immigrant) workers were gone, the line for applicants stretched around the block. That was in the densely populated state of Iowa. That was just one situation, there are others.

As far as that kind of job, it is an incentive to better yourself to get a better job. Either in pay or working conditions. It does teach valuable job skills like being at a certain place, at a certain time, and be ready to work. Sadly, too many people don't have those skills.

I could post other things, but that could get difficult. PMs are welcomed to discuss things.



Yeah...about that. You've seen the current unemployment rate right? Where are these "better jobs"?

I think you've a narrow view on it - skills is absolutely a component, but there needs to be an opportunity to apply those skills. 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, so it's a challenge for, say, meat plant workers to get a new suit (and that assumes that the job is local and doesn't involve any transport costs).

The "bootstraps" narrative hasn't been working as many think it does for quite some time...


I think most people sleepwalk through life. By that I mean that, as they go about their daily affairs, opportunities arise and they take what is available instead of taking the time to plan a life. I submit that the primary word to focus on in the preamble is "pursuit" as it applies to pursuit of happiness.


I see where you're coming from, but I think being able to "plan" life is a luxury that comparatively few people are genuinely afforded. You get dealt the hand you play when you're born, and that then feeds in to anything else that follows on.

quote:


What do you want to be when you grow up? A plumber makes good coin. So does a weilder. the IT field has paid well. In California, within the community college and universities, the coin has been good to. In the end it is encumbent upon each of us to identify what we want and pursue it. I worked two part-time jobs and went to school full time when I was young. It paid off for me. Now in my case I was single and w/o children. In the state of California anyone can go to community college pretty much for free for their first two years of school. I know that you can take wielding classes and knock out a certification in less than a year. I know that you can go to school for driving a tractor-trailer - 3-5k and you can be on the road in about 6 weeks.
There are so many options available for us here in America. I assume the same is try in Europe and other parts of the world.


Of course, the options are there.

What was interesting from the PNAS (what a truly unfortunate acronym...) paper was the fact that the inequalities in social mobility have really been thrown in the spotlight in recent years in the US.

Plus, as the paper states, the notion of opportunity clashes quite harshly with the evidence that your socio-economic outcomes reflect your socio-economic origins...

quote:

I don't have problems with a bootstrap approach. Hell - join the Peace Corps or the military for a 3-year stint.


I don't think anyone does - the problem is the evidence that suggests it's not an approach that's working as people think it should.

FWIW, having socio-economic progression driven by a term of service in either an organisation like the Peace Corps or the military reeks of Robert Heinlein - not quite sure I'd approve.

quote:

I think that state and federal governments are still hoping that once we step back from the "Shelter-at-home" thing, businesses will perk up, people will start news businesses to take advantage of the misfortunes of others in the restaurant and hospitality sectors, and life will be great again.


There certainly will be keen entrepreneurs there to exploit a very fluid situation in a quick manner (eg converting closed restaurants to takeaway eating, adapting to physical distancing, etc), but I think it will not make up for what is a gutted sector. Given how much income is driven by foot-traffic and wider events (theatre, concerts etc), it doesn't look good...

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 7832
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 9:10:38 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



I posted this before, but I believe Obvert was busy with other things.

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article



Maybe you could give a little context to why you're posing the link with me in mind?

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7833
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 9:35:13 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

"Worst job I ever had was no job".



That is so sad.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7834
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 9:37:47 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



I posted this before, but I believe Obvert was busy with other things.

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article



Maybe you could give a little context to why you're posing the link with me in mind?


Because it talks about several factors, two of which (masks, droplets) you might find relevant and interesting, and that you probably missed the original post because you were having a baby.


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/16/2020 9:38:10 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7835
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 9:42:30 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nomad

Colorado changing the way they count deaths. I wonder how many other states will follow suit?

https://www.foxnews.com/us/colorado-lowers-coronavirus-death-count

I' sure you will see lots of changes in the way deaths are counted or if they are counted at all. Nebraska doesn't count the sick at the meat packing plants because it makes the rest of the state look bad. Not sure if they are counting the dead in those places. Florida only counts you dead from Corona if you are are a citizen of the State of Florida. If you are from out of state you don't count. Florida has hid lots of the nursing home deaths too. FOIA requests eventually get them but they have made a conscious effort to hide numbers. Every State seems to be not reporting nursing home deaths accurately. CDC official numbers are much lower than Johns Hopkins. They say it takes 3 weeks to tally the numbers but who knows? Once there are many truths who can tell any more?


I hate to ask this but I'm totally curious - is this a red state VS blue state thing in regards to reporting? Do you think some states are inflating their numbers?




I believe that the CDC requested all deaths, no matter the underlying cause(s), to be labelled a primary covid death if the person is tested or presumed to have covid. They are still free to assign co-moribidity causes.

Colorado's Governor is a Democrat.

In the best of times, the causes of death is wrong at least 33% of the time, going over 50% of the time in certain states.

Occam's razor I think holds primarily true and it is not a red/blue state thing.

Here is an article on it:

Just How Inflated Are Coronavirus Death Counts, Exactly?
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/tyler-o-neil/2020/05/15/just-how-inflated-are-coronavirus-death-counts-exactly-n394897


Here are several articles detailing the trail of conservative media's campaign to cast doubt on the death counts from Covid.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/05/10/death-toll-conspiracy-why-conservative-media-and-soon-possibly-trump-are-doubting-coronavirus-mortality-figures/#361f441a57d5


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/07/trump-death-toll-coronavirus-241819

An increasing number of conservatives are convinced the medical community and the media are inflating the coronavirus death toll for political purposes, despite nearly all evidence indicating that, if anything, the figure is an undercount.

“By diminishing the fatality and the overall burden of mortality with Covid-19, what people are trying to do is diminish the gravity of the situation for whatever agenda,” said Dr. Felipe Lobelo, a former officer at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who worked on the agency’s response to the H1N1 virus. “That will lead to relaxing of public health measures, or lack of funding for contact tracing, which is critical or testing, or all the things that we need to do in order to keep the virus at bay.”

To skeptics, it’s an understandable response to a biased media.

The idea that death tolls are overblown originates in a kernel of truth — the fact that some authorities are including suspected, but not confirmed, coronavirus deaths in their initial totals. Health specialists say the approach is essential to ensure that the death toll is not significantly undercounted in the moment.

“The danger is to have a misrepresentation of how lethal the virus is,” said Lobelo, now an associate professor at Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health.

In fact, researchers say, even the commonly accepted totals likely don’t capture the full scope of the pandemic’s fatalities. Early coronavirus deaths may have been misidentified, while others may have died from coronavirus without getting a test or going to the hospital.

--------------------

The result is that, like many things during Trump’s presidency, the death toll has become politicized. A recent Axios-Ipsos poll found 40 percent of Republicans said the death toll was overreported, while 65 percent of Democrats said it was underreported. The poll noted that people who watched Fox News were more likely to believe the death toll was overreported.



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7836
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:02:48 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

It is amazing to read how very little we know on the subject, and I am referring to the CDC study recently released.



A number of studies I've read including the one you posted have shown a surgical mask to protect the people around the wearer from a higher proportion of the virus than if they were not wearing it. How much more do we need to know about that?

quote:



There is a reason why the CDC was initially against facemasks for the general populace to begin with.



What was the reason?

quote:



Not mentioned in any of these studies is the, for lack of a better phrase, placebo effect. Being powerless sucks, and if you are only told not to touch your face and wash your hands, well that is not very satisfying.



What does this mean? Aren't we talking about droplets and aerosols here? There is no placebo involving whether or not virus particles pass through facemarks or not.

quote:


Wearing a facemask though is a huge public statement that is also inconvenient. You are in effect making a statement, and feel that you are being proactive and making a sacrifice to beat the virus. For a lot of people that feels really good.



With what we know about the asymptomatic nature of a high number of cases now it's about saving someone's life if you catch it and don't know that.

It is not a statement. It's empathetic to other humans around you. It also may offer you some protection.



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7837
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:08:36 PM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline
So trying to take the politics out of it, here is my take from inside the industry.

Testing: First off, there is to date only one test unit (Roche) that meets standards. Others have been given provisional approval because something is better than nothing, but some of these have false negatives approaching 20% and false positives in excess of 40%. Given that the Roche design is being ramped up and has been licensed by numerous companies, but the units are still is incredibly short supply. Each state was provided a few initially. More are being shipped each week, but the US alone is short 100's of thousands of these units. (each unit processes 1200 samples/day, 5M sample/day is what the CDC projects the US needs to have control on the COVID-19 virus, then don't forget the operators and the sampling staff to make this all happen, none of which exists today.)

So having set the baseline that there is grossly insufficient testing AND a great deal of current testing is inaccurate, let's move to the death certificate. Completed by attending MD or ME, it is based upon what is known at time of death. If a patient dies of pneumonia, unless there is a corresponding positive diagnosis of COVID-19, the CoD is pneumonia. Some states have the ability to list contributing factors, others do not. Where they do not, the MD must decide which to put on the DC, guildelines there vary state to state, county to county, hospital to hospital. EDIT: By guideline I mean whether it was the originating or ultimate factor in the cause of death. So even if COVID-19 was the originating, by some counties direction only the ultimate (pneumonia) is listed.

Now we come to agencies/researchers trying to come up with COVID-19 data. Read the prior 2 paragraphs and tell me how you collect the data. The answer to date is that you choose other metrics. For example, the metric most widely used right now to determine whether a state has "crested" in its current COVID-19 epidemic is not any COVID-19 number. Instead they use the UW numbers where the researchers are tracking ICU beds occupied within each state against the total number in that state. As that number tapers off the inference is that COVID-19 has as well. Hospital bed occupancy is easily and regularly tracked data.

So, no matter which side of the aisle you sit, no matter what news you watch/listen, the bias is equal. Each side chooses the COVID-19 numbers they prefer and at this time there is no way to reject either set. Hopefuly next month (June) testing in US will reach ~10M/week which will start to enable us to get accurate data. This means sometime in August we will actually be able to make some statistically meaningful statements about the COVID-19 pandemic. That data will be peer reviewed and issued by CDC/NIH.

Until then, my recommendation is to keep you and your family safe. If you have family members over 60 that you wish to continue to see, then be very careful.

Be Safe!

< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 5/16/2020 10:15:13 PM >


_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7838
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:08:41 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 885
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The market solution is for maltreated workers to quit and for the employer to be forced to raise wages until they can find a workforce willing to do the job.


In theory. In practice, quite different as there's someone desperate enough to work under poor conditions. As others have stated, it's not as if corporate interests were strongly interested in working conditions prior to all this...


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The market solution is for maltreated workers to quit and for the employer to be forced to raise wages until they can find a workforce willing to do the job.

It is a crappy job. I would rather pick fruit or cut lettuce or push a broom at a work site.


I don't know, as an entry level job it teaches skills...I can see climbing the ladder to a grocery store butcher. In my neck of the woods that is a very good career for someone lacking a technical college degree. I know several grocery store butchers that went on to open their own small stores...I suspect that might be a bit suspect now though.

It is not for everyone, but as a boy growing up we were always cleaning fish to eat. That has probably changed over the years.



I genuinely struggle to imagine any serious career progression from something like a meat packing plant.

Granted, there will be some decent progression through the ranks so to speak, but let's not pretend that it is the norm for some guy on the factory floor will be CEO in twenty years time.


As far as the meat packing goes, one place where a lot of undocumented (illegal immigrant) workers were gone, the line for applicants stretched around the block. That was in the densely populated state of Iowa. That was just one situation, there are others.

As far as that kind of job, it is an incentive to better yourself to get a better job. Either in pay or working conditions. It does teach valuable job skills like being at a certain place, at a certain time, and be ready to work. Sadly, too many people don't have those skills.

I could post other things, but that could get difficult. PMs are welcomed to discuss things.



Yeah...about that. You've seen the current unemployment rate right? Where are these "better jobs"?

I think you've a narrow view on it - skills is absolutely a component, but there needs to be an opportunity to apply those skills. 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, so it's a challenge for, say, meat plant workers to get a new suit (and that assumes that the job is local and doesn't involve any transport costs).

The "bootstraps" narrative hasn't been working as many think it does for quite some time...


I think most people sleepwalk through life. By that I mean that, as they go about their daily affairs, opportunities arise and they take what is available instead of taking the time to plan a life. I submit that the primary word to focus on in the preamble is "pursuit" as it applies to pursuit of happiness.


I see where you're coming from, but I think being able to "plan" life is a luxury that comparatively few people are genuinely afforded. You get dealt the hand you play when you're born, and that then feeds in to anything else that follows on.

quote:


What do you want to be when you grow up? A plumber makes good coin. So does a weilder. the IT field has paid well. In California, within the community college and universities, the coin has been good to. In the end it is encumbent upon each of us to identify what we want and pursue it. I worked two part-time jobs and went to school full time when I was young. It paid off for me. Now in my case I was single and w/o children. In the state of California anyone can go to community college pretty much for free for their first two years of school. I know that you can take wielding classes and knock out a certification in less than a year. I know that you can go to school for driving a tractor-trailer - 3-5k and you can be on the road in about 6 weeks.
There are so many options available for us here in America. I assume the same is try in Europe and other parts of the world.


Of course, the options are there.

What was interesting from the PNAS (what a truly unfortunate acronym...) paper was the fact that the inequalities in social mobility have really been thrown in the spotlight in recent years in the US.

Plus, as the paper states, the notion of opportunity clashes quite harshly with the evidence that your socio-economic outcomes reflect your socio-economic origins...

quote:

I don't have problems with a bootstrap approach. Hell - join the Peace Corps or the military for a 3-year stint.


I don't think anyone does - the problem is the evidence that suggests it's not an approach that's working as people think it should.

FWIW, having socio-economic progression driven by a term of service in either an organisation like the Peace Corps or the military reeks of Robert Heinlein - not quite sure I'd approve.

quote:

I think that state and federal governments are still hoping that once we step back from the "Shelter-at-home" thing, businesses will perk up, people will start news businesses to take advantage of the misfortunes of others in the restaurant and hospitality sectors, and life will be great again.


There certainly will be keen entrepreneurs there to exploit a very fluid situation in a quick manner (eg converting closed restaurants to takeaway eating, adapting to physical distancing, etc), but I think it will not make up for what is a gutted sector. Given how much income is driven by foot-traffic and wider events (theatre, concerts etc), it doesn't look good...


lol - it's OK to agree to disagree. I'm fine with Heinlein to an extent. (I'm doing my part) Here in America, a single person can work three jobs and eat bolonia for as long as it takes to climbed up to the next wrung of the ladder. Hey - I coulda been born to wealthy parents and not had to work for the rest of my life... Things are so unfair!

There are inequalities all over the place. I wanted to be a race-car driver. The closest I've been is on the dirt track (raced in two rallies - placed 3rd and 9th). I wanted to be a fire fighter. I served with Inyo County as an on-call fire fighter for 4 years. I wanted to be a doctor. I got my EMT license as part of being an on-call fire fighter. I wanted to be a soldier. I spent 12 years as a gun bunny.

I'm just trying to say that pursuit is important - it's what America was built on. A belief that I can be or do anything with the gifts of mind and body that my Higher Power granted to me. I'm white. Are there additional hurdles for the non-white in America? My experience and observation say "Yes" to that question. Is it better to be a male than a female when it comes to most careers in America? Again I would say yes. But I've met a lot of men and women of all shapes, sizes, and colors. Those that climbed up to a status of middle-class and higher here in America, for the most part, have had a dream that they pursued.


< Message edited by durnedwolf -- 5/16/2020 10:31:10 PM >


_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 7839
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:09:56 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



I posted this before, but I believe Obvert was busy with other things.

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article



Maybe you could give a little context to why you're posing the link with me in mind?


Because it talks about several factors, two of which (masks, droplets) you might find relevant and interesting, and that you probably missed the original post because you were having a baby.



I've seen several studies previous to the one you posted which analysed in laboratory settings how facemarks can reduce the amount of a virus that is transmitted to the air as both droplets and aerosols.

The CDC also only mentioned previous studies, mostly environmental in nature (not in a lab) which studies influenza types, not Coronavirus. The study you linked before studied both, and found conclusive evidence of reduction in virus transmission when wearing a surgical mask.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7840
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:13:22 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, that's true. All leading indicators (mortality, new cases, hospitalizations, etc.) are declining in Georgia. I'm worried (wary) about the wheels coming off, but man things seem very promising.

On a separate note, while returning to work an hour ago, a national radio talk show interview between two "experts" caught my ear when one said, "New York is not Georgia." They were making the same point made here earlier today - that the two jurisdictions, what they're dealing with and how they need to deal with it, are different. It's eerie how many times we've had discussion in here and the same thought/data shortly afterwards popped up in the news or talk shows, etc. (It's eerie because I don't have television, don't subscribe to newspapers, and only erratically hear radio news. The thoughts I share here are mostly self-generated, based on my experience, what I learn from you all, and the sources you've pointed me to.)


A point that is often lost in the reopen/stay closed debate is that even if mandatory shutdowns are lifted, that doesn't mean businesses are reopening or people are returning to pre-pandemic behavior patterns.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7841
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:18:35 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

quote:

We need more testing.

I can't figure out the testing reasoning, maybe somebody here can help. It seems that in this area [Maryland, USA] you only get tested if you are privileged [Governor, sports figure] or if you are sick and your doctor gives you permission to get tested. The reports are that folks can carry this virus and not display any symptoms. Not always, but sometimes. Therefore, it would seem a good idea to expand this limited testing, but that would mean all of us lining up at a test station every morning on our way to work, and that's not practical.

What seems reasonable is to have a home self-test, something we can buy over-the-counter, or pick up at a Free Gov'ment Kiosk, say 20 to a box or some such. Then we can all test ourselves at reasonable intervals. Otherwise there is a large percentage of carriers that are not detected until it is too late. However, because this virus cloaks itself in material common in humans [glucose and something else that slips me at this moment] so far the tests have resulted in a high percentage of false results. This makes home testing kits not feasible.

So my brain keeps running around in circles on this issue. By the way, the flu season generally fizzles out by this time of year. Each day that passes makes it more interesting to see how this virus holds up.


I think you have the testing reasoning figured out.

We need more testing to be able to open back up once we have current cases down to a very small number. Then you can test, trace, and isolate to prevent large outbreaks from recurring endlessly for months/years until there is a vaccine and/or herd immunity.

Or did you mean you can't figure out why some people are able to get tests, and others not? Basically: supply of tests. We (collectively, as a nation) squandered the 2+ months of lockdown (and the 2 months before that) when we should've been making a stockpile of hundreds of millions of tests.

(in reply to sPzAbt653)
Post #: 7842
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:19:55 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
Men don't like masks.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/16/men-masks-coronavirus-protests-masculinity-kills

A new survey of 2,459 people living in the US has found that men are less likely to don face masks because they believe wearing one is “shameful,” “a sign of weakness,” and “not cool.”

The survey, conducted by American and British researchers, also found that men are less likely to believe they’ll be significantly impacted by Covid-19 than women. Which is ironic, because there is a huge amount of evidence showing that men are much more likely to die from coronavirus. Researchers are still trying to figure out whether this is due to biology or behaviour.

Interestingly, the study found gender differences in intentions to wear a face covering basically disappeared in places were masks were made mandatory. In other words: men need to be forced to wear masks more than women do.

---------------------------

Reluctance to show any sign of weakness also factors into why men don’t go to the doctor as much as women do and why they’re less likely to adopt preventative health measures. Toxic masculinity kills.

Masks aren’t particularly fun to wear, but they work. One recent research paper found that if 80% of Americans wore masks, Covid-19 infections rates would drop to approximately one twelfth the number of infections.


https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says

If you’re wondering whether to wear or not to wear, consider this. The day before yesterday, 21 people died of COVID-19 in Japan. In the United States, 2,129 died. Comparing overall death rates for the two countries offers an even starker point of comparison with total U.S. deaths now at a staggering 76,032 and Japan’s fatalities at 577. Japan’s population is about 38% of the U.S., but even adjusting for population, the Japanese death rate is a mere 2% of America’s.

This comes despite Japan having no lockdown, still-active subways, and many businesses that have remained open—reportedly including karaoke bars, although Japanese citizens and industries are practicing social distancing where they can. Nor have the Japanese broadly embraced contact tracing, a practice by which health authorities identify someone who has been infected and then attempt to identify everyone that person might have interacted with—and potentially infected. So how does Japan do it?

“One reason is that nearly everyone there is wearing a mask,”


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7843
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:22:29 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Wow. The thing is you need a serious human safety study with any COVID vaccine because of this whole cytokine storm business and the many apparent immune mediated side effects (like Kawasaki Disease in kids)

I think the recombinants or mRNA-based approaches (as opposed to spike glycoprotein or whole virus) approaches are less likely to result in such nasty side effects, don't you?


What about the replicants?

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 7844
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:23:22 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The market solution is for maltreated workers to quit and for the employer to be forced to raise wages until they can find a workforce willing to do the job.


In theory. In practice, quite different as there's someone desperate enough to work under poor conditions. As others have stated, it's not as if corporate interests were strongly interested in working conditions prior to all this...


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The market solution is for maltreated workers to quit and for the employer to be forced to raise wages until they can find a workforce willing to do the job.

It is a crappy job. I would rather pick fruit or cut lettuce or push a broom at a work site.


I don't know, as an entry level job it teaches skills...I can see climbing the ladder to a grocery store butcher. In my neck of the woods that is a very good career for someone lacking a technical college degree. I know several grocery store butchers that went on to open their own small stores...I suspect that might be a bit suspect now though.

It is not for everyone, but as a boy growing up we were always cleaning fish to eat. That has probably changed over the years.



I genuinely struggle to imagine any serious career progression from something like a meat packing plant.

Granted, there will be some decent progression through the ranks so to speak, but let's not pretend that it is the norm for some guy on the factory floor will be CEO in twenty years time.


As far as the meat packing goes, one place where a lot of undocumented (illegal immigrant) workers were gone, the line for applicants stretched around the block. That was in the densely populated state of Iowa. That was just one situation, there are others.

As far as that kind of job, it is an incentive to better yourself to get a better job. Either in pay or working conditions. It does teach valuable job skills like being at a certain place, at a certain time, and be ready to work. Sadly, too many people don't have those skills.

I could post other things, but that could get difficult. PMs are welcomed to discuss things.



Yeah...about that. You've seen the current unemployment rate right? Where are these "better jobs"?

I think you've a narrow view on it - skills is absolutely a component, but there needs to be opportunity to apply those skills. 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, so it's a challenge for, say, meat plant workers to get a new suit (and that assumes that the job is local and doesn't involve any transport costs).

The "bootstraps" narrative hasn't been working as many think it does for quite some time...


Well then, since the economies are not going to get better, quit letting in the immigrants. Especially since so many are going to decide to retire early, there won't be any job openings. Nope, none at all.

There are places that accept donated clothing for job seekers.

I read where a lot of employers would rather hire someone who had a job that was beneath their skills when there weren't better jobs available instead of sitting at home.

As far as people living paycheck to paycheck, is that because they have a house payment, a car payment, a truck payment, a boat payment, an ATV payment and a snowmobile payment? Maybe even more than one ATV and/or snowmobile that they are paying on?


Getting back to the person with all of those payments, that was a man who had a good, relatively high paying union job who asked someone running a summer camp so his child could attend. He just did not have enough money to pay for it.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7845
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:25:53 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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Well, I just went to a store and I did not wear a mask. I saw no one wearing a mask either. As far as wearing a tight fitting mask, I have a furry face.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7846
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:28:21 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I posted this before, but I believe Obvert was busy with other things.

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article


Maybe you could give a little context to why you're posing the link with me in mind?


Because it talks about several factors, two of which (masks, droplets) you might find relevant and interesting, and that you probably missed the original post because you were having a baby.


He was not having the baby, his wife was. He was just observing.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 7847
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:29:32 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Total Covid-19 cases per 100k residents, at county level - stolen from elsewhere on the internet.



Some real interesting insights from this.

Florida still seems to be doing fairly well, but what worries me is the string of black across the Midwest...


That "string" of black across the Midwest, west of Chicago, is basically in Iowa.

That area, unless it is where Cedar Rapids and Iowa City are, is pretty sparsely populated (I think Iowa City/Cedar Rapids are the orange-ish set of 2-3 just below there, with the black one to the west of there being west of the cities and rural).

Likewise, the little C-shaped one is on the west bank of the Mississippi, where there are no cities. None. Zero. There aren't even really any towns... Iowa has 99 counties, and a population of about 3M. More than half of that population is concentrated in less than 10 counties, with 93 counties having less than 100K population. Of those, 89 have less than 50K... I'm sure Iowa isn't the only state with extreme splits like this, and it's also worth pointing out that Iowa has a fairly regular division of counties (they're mostly square and tiny). Compare to Maryland, which has many fewer counties that are bigger and more irregularly shaped. At the national level, comparing by county is really not useful.

This should be kept in mind while looking at these charts. I don't actually find them very helpful when zoomed out to the national level like this. It makes it too hard to pick out the urban/suburban/rural context.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 7848
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:32:01 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe



The image did not show up for me. I can't get to https://i.redd.it/vy7y44mhf0z41.png either.

But I can imagine that the black is the high number of cases at the meat packing plants. Those pose unique situations that have been commented on before.

I can imagine that the food processing plants may have similar problems. Maybe not as bad, but the harvesting work is done by hand, then the fruits and vegetables have to be processed. The processing plants may end up being bad. The harvesting may not be so bad if precautions are taken on any bus rides but then the workers would be in the fields with less contact and more air movement plus the natural UV light.



Doesn't really track with meatpacking plants in Iowa - at least, not very well: https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=where+are+meat+packing+plants+in+iowa

The big Tyson plant is in Cedar Falls, which appears to be north of that black spot. Could be the driver of the black spot on the Mississippi, though.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7849
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:42:43 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Well, I just went to a store and I did not wear a mask. I saw no one wearing a mask either. As far as wearing a tight fitting mask, I have a furry face.


As posted above;

One recent research paper found that if 80% of Americans wore masks, Covid-19 infections rates would drop to approximately one twelfth the number of infections.

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/16/2020 10:43:02 PM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 7850
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:43:02 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

I'm just trying to say that pursuit is important - it's what America was built on. A belief that I can be or do anything with the gifts of mind and body that my Higher Power granted to me. I'm white. Are there additional hurdles for the non-white in America? My experience and observation say "Yes" to that question. Is it better to be a male than a female when it comes to most careers in America? Again I would say yes. But I've met a lot of men and women of all shapes, sizes, and colors. Those that climbed up to a status of middle-class and higher here in America, for the most part, have had a dream that they pursued.



Working for something is important, but socioeconomic mobility in the US is much lower than is commonly mythologized - especially in modern times.

The wiki page on this actually has quite a bit of information with several citations. Synopsis: there is some bad news and some neutral news, with basically only 1 piece of news that could be called vaguely good (the part I underlined in the quote below).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socioeconomic_mobility_in_the_United_States
quote:


In recent years, several studies have found that vertical intergenerational mobility is lower in the US than in some European countries.[3] US social mobility has either remained unchanged or decreased since the 1970s.[4][5][6][7] A study conducted by the Pew Charitable Trusts found that the bottom quintile is 57% likely to experience upward mobility and only 7% to experience downward mobility.[8]

A study published in 2008 showed that economic mobility in the U.S. increased from 1950 to 1980, but has declined sharply since 1980.[9]

A 2013 Brookings Institution study found income inequality was increasing and becoming more permanent, sharply reducing social mobility.[10]

A large academic study released in 2014 found US mobility overall has not changed appreciably in the last 25 years (for children born between 1971 and 1996), but a variety of up and down mobility changes were found in several different parts of the country. On average, American children entering the labor market today have the same chances of moving up in the income distribution (relative to their parents) as children born in the 1970s.[11][12]

However, because US income inequalities have increased substantially, the consequences of the "birth lottery"—the parents to whom a child is born—are larger today than in the past. US wealth is increasingly concentrated in the top 10% of American families, so children of the remaining 90% are more likely to be born at lower starting incomes today than the same children in the past. Even if they are equally mobile and climb the same distance up the US socioeconomic ladder as children born 25 years earlier, the bottom 90% of the ladder is worth less now, so they gain less income value from their climb, especially when compared to the top 10%.[11][12]


And that's just from the header... there's more, and I've could find plenty of other citations as well.

Again, that's not to say that it's impossible - just that it's harder than in the past, and also to point out that the mythologizing of "you can do anything if you only just work hard enough" as the common narrative sold to the American worker/workplace is nowhere close to the actual truth.

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 7851
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 10:51:33 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

I'm just trying to say that pursuit is important - it's what America was built on. A belief that I can be or do anything with the gifts of mind and body that my Higher Power granted to me. I'm white. Are there additional hurdles for the non-white in America? My experience and observation say "Yes" to that question. Is it better to be a male than a female when it comes to most careers in America? Again I would say yes. But I've met a lot of men and women of all shapes, sizes, and colors. Those that climbed up to a status of middle-class and higher here in America, for the most part, have had a dream that they pursued.



Working for something is important, but socioeconomic mobility in the US is much lower than is commonly mythologized - especially in modern times.

The wiki page on this actually has quite a bit of information with several citations. Synopsis: there is some bad news and some neutral news, with basically only 1 piece of news that could be called vaguely good (the part I underlined in the quote below).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socioeconomic_mobility_in_the_United_States
quote:


In recent years, several studies have found that vertical intergenerational mobility is lower in the US than in some European countries.[3] US social mobility has either remained unchanged or decreased since the 1970s.[4][5][6][7] A study conducted by the Pew Charitable Trusts found that the bottom quintile is 57% likely to experience upward mobility and only 7% to experience downward mobility.[8]

A study published in 2008 showed that economic mobility in the U.S. increased from 1950 to 1980, but has declined sharply since 1980.[9]

A 2013 Brookings Institution study found income inequality was increasing and becoming more permanent, sharply reducing social mobility.[10]

A large academic study released in 2014 found US mobility overall has not changed appreciably in the last 25 years (for children born between 1971 and 1996), but a variety of up and down mobility changes were found in several different parts of the country. On average, American children entering the labor market today have the same chances of moving up in the income distribution (relative to their parents) as children born in the 1970s.[11][12]

However, because US income inequalities have increased substantially, the consequences of the "birth lottery"—the parents to whom a child is born—are larger today than in the past. US wealth is increasingly concentrated in the top 10% of American families, so children of the remaining 90% are more likely to be born at lower starting incomes today than the same children in the past. Even if they are equally mobile and climb the same distance up the US socioeconomic ladder as children born 25 years earlier, the bottom 90% of the ladder is worth less now, so they gain less income value from their climb, especially when compared to the top 10%.[11][12]


And that's just from the header... there's more, and I've could find plenty of other citations as well.

Again, that's not to say that it's impossible - just that it's harder than in the past, and also to point out that the mythologizing of "you can do anything if you only just work hard enough" as the common narrative sold to the American worker/workplace is nowhere close to the actual truth.


There is also the obvious follow-on that if everyone did try to work multiple jobs to get ahead and had those same dreams and goals, some would still lose out because that would be the normal, and someone still has to do the s*** work.

The American Dream simply cannot work for everyone. When that realisation seeps in somewhere between age 15 and 35, it can create a lot of frustration, anger, despair. Is it possibly a coincidence that as social mobility reduces drug use and related deaths from overdoses increase?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/611012/number-of-drug-overdose-deaths-in-the-us-by-gender/

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/16/2020 10:52:21 PM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7852
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 11:03:09 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
For example, the metric most widely used right now to determine whether a state has "crested" in its current COVID-19 epidemic is not any COVID-19 number. Instead they use the UW numbers where the researchers are tracking ICU beds occupied within each state against the total number in that state. As that number tapers off the inference is that COVID-19 has as well. Hospital bed occupancy is easily and regularly tracked data.


I have really only found county level information tracking ICU bed usage...is it being reported on regionally or nationwide somewhere. Very interesting. I have found state level after a lot of digging.

And, who is using that metric right now? I saw a fair bit of reporting on it at the end of March, but it is hard to find now. I probably am looking in the wrong places.

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 7853
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 11:04:14 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



I posted this before, but I believe Obvert was busy with other things.

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article



Maybe you could give a little context to why you're posing the link with me in mind?


Because it talks about several factors, two of which (masks, droplets) you might find relevant and interesting, and that you probably missed the original post because you were having a baby.



I've seen several studies previous to the one you posted which analysed in laboratory settings how facemarks can reduce the amount of a virus that is transmitted to the air as both droplets and aerosols.

The CDC also only mentioned previous studies, mostly environmental in nature (not in a lab) which studies influenza types, not Coronavirus. The study you linked before studied both, and found conclusive evidence of reduction in virus transmission when wearing a surgical mask.


Sorry if you didn't find it interesting. I thought you would.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7854
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 11:08:53 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

I'm just trying to say that pursuit is important - it's what America was built on. A belief that I can be or do anything with the gifts of mind and body that my Higher Power granted to me. I'm white. Are there additional hurdles for the non-white in America? My experience and observation say "Yes" to that question. Is it better to be a male than a female when it comes to most careers in America? Again I would say yes. But I've met a lot of men and women of all shapes, sizes, and colors. Those that climbed up to a status of middle-class and higher here in America, for the most part, have had a dream that they pursued.



Working for something is important, but socioeconomic mobility in the US is much lower than is commonly mythologized - especially in modern times.

The wiki page on this actually has quite a bit of information with several citations. Synopsis: there is some bad news and some neutral news, with basically only 1 piece of news that could be called vaguely good (the part I underlined in the quote below).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socioeconomic_mobility_in_the_United_States
quote:


In recent years, several studies have found that vertical intergenerational mobility is lower in the US than in some European countries.[3] US social mobility has either remained unchanged or decreased since the 1970s.[4][5][6][7] A study conducted by the Pew Charitable Trusts found that the bottom quintile is 57% likely to experience upward mobility and only 7% to experience downward mobility.[8]

A study published in 2008 showed that economic mobility in the U.S. increased from 1950 to 1980, but has declined sharply since 1980.[9]

A 2013 Brookings Institution study found income inequality was increasing and becoming more permanent, sharply reducing social mobility.[10]

A large academic study released in 2014 found US mobility overall has not changed appreciably in the last 25 years (for children born between 1971 and 1996), but a variety of up and down mobility changes were found in several different parts of the country. On average, American children entering the labor market today have the same chances of moving up in the income distribution (relative to their parents) as children born in the 1970s.[11][12]

However, because US income inequalities have increased substantially, the consequences of the "birth lottery"—the parents to whom a child is born—are larger today than in the past. US wealth is increasingly concentrated in the top 10% of American families, so children of the remaining 90% are more likely to be born at lower starting incomes today than the same children in the past. Even if they are equally mobile and climb the same distance up the US socioeconomic ladder as children born 25 years earlier, the bottom 90% of the ladder is worth less now, so they gain less income value from their climb, especially when compared to the top 10%.[11][12]


And that's just from the header... there's more, and I've could find plenty of other citations as well.

Again, that's not to say that it's impossible - just that it's harder than in the past, and also to point out that the mythologizing of "you can do anything if you only just work hard enough" as the common narrative sold to the American worker/workplace is nowhere close to the actual truth.


I could state some reasons why this is but that would get into murky areas for this thread.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 7855
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 11:16:53 PM   
durnedwolf


Posts: 885
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

I'm just trying to say that pursuit is important - it's what America was built on. A belief that I can be or do anything with the gifts of mind and body that my Higher Power granted to me. I'm white. Are there additional hurdles for the non-white in America? My experience and observation say "Yes" to that question. Is it better to be a male than a female when it comes to most careers in America? Again I would say yes. But I've met a lot of men and women of all shapes, sizes, and colors. Those that climbed up to a status of middle-class and higher here in America, for the most part, have had a dream that they pursued.



Working for something is important, but socioeconomic mobility in the US is much lower than is commonly mythologized - especially in modern times.

The wiki page on this actually has quite a bit of information with several citations. Synopsis: there is some bad news and some neutral news, with basically only 1 piece of news that could be called vaguely good (the part I underlined in the quote below).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socioeconomic_mobility_in_the_United_States
quote:


In recent years, several studies have found that vertical intergenerational mobility is lower in the US than in some European countries.[3] US social mobility has either remained unchanged or decreased since the 1970s.[4][5][6][7] A study conducted by the Pew Charitable Trusts found that the bottom quintile is 57% likely to experience upward mobility and only 7% to experience downward mobility.[8]

A study published in 2008 showed that economic mobility in the U.S. increased from 1950 to 1980, but has declined sharply since 1980.[9]

A 2013 Brookings Institution study found income inequality was increasing and becoming more permanent, sharply reducing social mobility.[10]

A large academic study released in 2014 found US mobility overall has not changed appreciably in the last 25 years (for children born between 1971 and 1996), but a variety of up and down mobility changes were found in several different parts of the country. On average, American children entering the labor market today have the same chances of moving up in the income distribution (relative to their parents) as children born in the 1970s.[11][12]

However, because US income inequalities have increased substantially, the consequences of the "birth lottery"—the parents to whom a child is born—are larger today than in the past. US wealth is increasingly concentrated in the top 10% of American families, so children of the remaining 90% are more likely to be born at lower starting incomes today than the same children in the past. Even if they are equally mobile and climb the same distance up the US socioeconomic ladder as children born 25 years earlier, the bottom 90% of the ladder is worth less now, so they gain less income value from their climb, especially when compared to the top 10%.[11][12]


And that's just from the header... there's more, and I've could find plenty of other citations as well.

Again, that's not to say that it's impossible - just that it's harder than in the past, and also to point out that the mythologizing of "you can do anything if you only just work hard enough" as the common narrative sold to the American worker/workplace is nowhere close to the actual truth.


There is also the obvious follow-on that if everyone did try to work multiple jobs to get ahead and had those same dreams and goals, some would still lose out because that would be the normal, and someone still has to do the s*** work.

The American Dream simply cannot work for everyone. When that realisation seeps in somewhere between age 15 and 35, it can create a lot of frustration, anger, despair. Is it possibly a coincidence that as social mobility reduces drug use and related deaths from overdoses increase?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/611012/number-of-drug-overdose-deaths-in-the-us-by-gender/


Like I said - it's OK to agree to disagree. I'm not saying it's easy. It wasn't easy for me. I still think a person can get ahead.

Edit - and I noted gifts I was born with as a factor. We each have a set of attributes that we need to play too. Maybe you are a "brainy" kind of guy. Maybe you are really good at drawing. Or playing music. Or learning languages comes easy for you. Or taking things apart and putting them back together. I had to keep things real. It's ok to want and dream but at the end of the day I went down a road that catered to my strengths and I didn't spend too much time wringing my hands over could-have-bens. I believe that if you can find a job that you like, where you don't watch the clock 5 minutes before quitting time and you take the time to become really-really good at, I think a person will do just fine.


< Message edited by durnedwolf -- 5/16/2020 11:25:12 PM >


_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7856
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 11:22:04 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says

If you’re wondering whether to wear or not to wear, consider this. The day before yesterday, 21 people died of COVID-19 in Japan. In the United States, 2,129 died. Comparing overall death rates for the two countries offers an even starker point of comparison with total U.S. deaths now at a staggering 76,032 and Japan’s fatalities at 577. Japan’s population is about 38% of the U.S., but even adjusting for population, the Japanese death rate is a mere 2% of America’s.

This comes despite Japan having no lockdown, still-active subways, and many businesses that have remained open—reportedly including karaoke bars, although Japanese citizens and industries are practicing social distancing where they can. Nor have the Japanese broadly embraced contact tracing, a practice by which health authorities identify someone who has been infected and then attempt to identify everyone that person might have interacted with—and potentially infected. So how does Japan do it?

“One reason is that nearly everyone there is wearing a mask,”



It is an interesting article, but it is referencing the result of a computer model. It may very well turn out the masks are the salient factor, or it might be other things. We don't know yet, and I am quite curious to see how it all falls out.

There is no doubt that Japan is handling covid differently, though.

Japan’s Halfhearted Coronavirus Measures Are Working Anyway
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/14/japan-coronavirus-pandemic-lockdown-testing/

With respect to men vs women wearing masks....I can't tell locally since mask usage seems to be at 100% locally. The only time I don't see masks is on the walking/jogging trails and runners. I suspect it probably varies a lot by how hard each region is being hit.



< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/16/2020 11:23:49 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 7857
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 11:24:30 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The market solution is for maltreated workers to quit and for the employer to be forced to raise wages until they can find a workforce willing to do the job.


In theory. In practice, quite different as there's someone desperate enough to work under poor conditions. As others have stated, it's not as if corporate interests were strongly interested in working conditions prior to all this...




No, in this case there IS a shortage of workers willing to take the job for the pay offered, given the risk. That is exactly why they are "euthanizing" millions of chickens. To fill those jobs you would have to take an idle Disney cruise ship down to Honduras or Guatemala, promise tall blonde dancer girls and salsa picante on the cruise AND a green card and you could fill the thing up...and then after 3 or 4 weeks, they would all have $15 an hour jobs at Pollo Loco

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 7858
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 11:32:16 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The market solution is for maltreated workers to quit and for the employer to be forced to raise wages until they can find a workforce willing to do the job.


In theory. In practice, quite different as there's someone desperate enough to work under poor conditions. As others have stated, it's not as if corporate interests were strongly interested in working conditions prior to all this...




No, in this case there IS a shortage of workers willing to take the job for the pay offered, given the risk. That is exactly why they are "euthanizing" millions of chickens. To fill those jobs you would have to take an idle Disney cruise ship down to Honduras or Guatemala, promise tall blonde dancer girls and salsa picante on the cruise AND a green card and you could fill the thing up...and then after 3 or 4 weeks, they would all have $15 an hour jobs at Pollo Loco



The United Food and Commercial Workers union reports that more than 70% of all beef and 60% of all pork consumed in the US is processed by UFCW workers. They have 1.3 million workers. To date they have had 73 deaths.



(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7859
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/16/2020 11:35:39 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
There is a price for which I would work at Chicken plant. The thigh would have exactly one half of the joint capsule and the rest the other half. I would demand a fresh #15 blade for every beast and air conditioning and the Mozart Oboe Concerto in C Major on the headphones....and I would would have authority to pause the line on the most sublime parts (of the Concerto, not the chicken)

Alas, nobody could afford the chicken but there would NEVER be a femur chopped off 1.5 cm from the joint.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7860
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