Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

warspite1

Its expected that Boris will announce much stricter rules tonight. I hope he doesn't go so far as the Belgians - although at least they are trying to be sensible about it. It's only non-essential threesomes that are a problem. Phew.... that's a relief.

Aye. But what it *you* are the non-essential member of that threesome?

warspite1

Well allow me if you will, the following, of course, purely hypothetical situation. The threesome involves a dashing, witty, bon viveur and international lover (lets call him mr w1), and two dark haired impossibly pretty young ladies (lets go with miss B and miss c - I can't possibly imagine who they may be referring to, can you?). I put it to you that in such a scenario, there really is at no point a non-essential member (fnarr, fnarr) so to speak.

I would make so bold as to venture that the above scenario is essential in all and every scenario - indoors, outdoors, wherever - and indeed should be compulsory. So with the greatest respect Ms Health Minister I don't believe a ban would apply here.

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ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Today's data:

+3.780 infections
+602 deaths
+408 cured

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A third and final excerpt.

It's interesting to see the occasional positive report. I heard the Italy news (2nd consecutive day, etc.) on national radio today. So a trickle of positive reports. A week ago, there was a post the positive news might begin appearing "in a week or so." Nothing definitive taking place yet, but glimmers of hope, here and there.

It talked to a prominent businessman in Atlanta today. He was audibly shocked to hear some encouraging tidbits, as we've touched on in here. He said the news in Atlanta is 100% negative and panicky. I've heard similar reports from 20-somethings fixated on social media.

It Italy has indeed turned, we're seeing the light at the end of a still long tunnel.

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ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's another drop in daily mortality for Italy. Good news, if trending (but last week the numbers flattered only to deceive).

Mortality is a lagging indicator of the leading edge of the infection 'wave'. Those that die from this virus and its complications were infected some weeks ago. I too want to see the mortality drop off, but I'm more interested in the waning of 'new cases' to track the progression of the virus through a given population.

Also, I've been following Japan more closely. They've got one of the oldest populations on the planet and they've had comparatively few cases to date, in spite of widespread testing. As far as I'm concerned, they're the champs at social distancing and 'flattening the curve'-a model for others. I'd like to hear more about how they've successfully stemmed the tide so far.

Of course, they're an island. Relatively xenophobic culture. Social distancing is their normative behavior anyways. No PDAs or touchy-feely in public. Perhaps that's the key to all this.

There is a major flaw in this reasoning. It relies on a number, the new infections, that is not really reliable.

Deaths are much easier to count and are "certain" by definition (unless the population starts to massively hide dead bodies, something I find quite... unlikely).

Now, it's probable that the number of infected people is grossly underestimated and that it reflects more the capability of a system (region/city/country) to test its citizens. Basically, if I have 10.000 positive people per-day and I can do 3.000 tests, I will never ever be able to track/test all of the 10.000.

On the other side, deaths are very easy to track even if the information we receive is delayed.

I suppose another important indicator is the number of people who got accepted in intensive care units.

I'm a strong proponent of deaths as the most reliable information. Secondarily, people admitted to ICUs and hospitalized.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

The John Hopkins site is definitely behaving a bit odd - all of the US cases have disappeared from their lists and they currently seem to have assigned all of France's deaths and recoveries to French Polynesia.

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ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

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ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Today's data:

+3.780 infections
+602 deaths
+408 cured

Hi ITAKLinus,

I wonder if some of this is living-style? Here in America, it's rare to have more than a nucleus family (parents and kids) living in the same household. Does Italy still have multi-generations (like maybe grandparents, parents, and kids) as kind of the norm within their household?

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's another drop in daily mortality for Italy. Good news, if trending (but last week the numbers flattered only to deceive).

Mortality is a lagging indicator of the leading edge of the infection 'wave'. Those that die from this virus and its complications were infected some weeks ago. I too want to see the mortality drop off, but I'm more interested in the waning of 'new cases' to track the progression of the virus through a given population.

Also, I've been following Japan more closely. They've got one of the oldest populations on the planet and they've had comparatively few cases to date, in spite of widespread testing. As far as I'm concerned, they're the champs at social distancing and 'flattening the curve'-a model for others. I'd like to hear more about how they've successfully stemmed the tide so far.

Of course, they're an island. Relatively xenophobic culture. Social distancing is their normative behavior anyways. No PDAs or touchy-feely in public. Perhaps that's the key to all this.

There is a major flaw in this reasoning. It relies on a number, the new infections, that is not really reliable.

Deaths are much easier to count and are "certain" by definition (unless the population starts to massively hide dead bodies, something I find quite... unlikely).

Now, it's probable that the number of infected people is grossly underestimated and that it reflects more the capability of a system (region/city/country) to test its citizens. Basically, if I have 10.000 positive people per-day and I can do 3.000 tests, I will never ever be able to track/test all of the 10.000.

On the other side, deaths are very easy to track even if the information we receive is delayed.

I suppose another important indicator is the number of people who got accepted in intensive care units.

I'm a strong proponent of deaths as the most reliable information. Secondarily, people admitted to ICUs and hospitalized.

warspite1

But it could be that deaths are unreliable too? I've no idea if this is true but there is talk of the way the Germans are dealing with deaths and whether they count as coronavirus victims. I would love to know more on this as, whichever way one tries to rationalise it, Germany's deaths and intensive care/critical numbers just seem totally at odds with the likes of Italy or Spain.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

MindMessing, I'm not on any "train." These are mostly my thoughts, but it is encouraging to see that there are others. And this thing will end eventually, and the news will too. When is the question.

Not very open-minded to characterize my analysis as "wishful thinking," any more than it would be for me to call yours "irrational hysteria" (I wouldn't, because I don't think that.)

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: alanschu

I was curious about how things were in some of the smaller total case numbers areas and did see some potentially concerning upticks in new cases. Of course, new cases has challenges around it, though I'll defer to BBfanboy's statements that it's still a metric that has value (I had often been leaning death counts as well).


Canada saw a jump from 1470 to 2091 (42% increase)

Others
Austria: 3582 to 4474 (25%)
Portugal: 1600 to 2060 (29%)
Brazil: 1546 to 1924 (24%)
Israel: 1071 to 1442 (34%)
Romania: 433 to 576 (33%)
South Africa: 274 to 402 (46%)
India: 396 to 499 (26%)


Small numbers which can make a sudden shift shoot up, but hopefully these countries were able to get ahead of things. I'm not sure how the countries all relate in terms of ability to detect virus, family gatherings etc, as well as health care systems in general. Daily deaths are all still quite low for these countries.



(USA is also big still with a 29% increase, though I don't think this is news for anyone in this thread and I was trying to spot check bigger jumps among the smaller counts).

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

warspite1

Its expected that Boris will announce much stricter rules tonight. I hope he doesn't go so far as the Belgians - although at least they are trying to be sensible about it. It's only non-essential threesomes that are a problem. Phew.... that's a relief.

Aye. But what it *you* are the non-essential member of that threesome?

warspite1

Well allow me if you will, the following, of course, purely hypothetical situation. The threesome involves a dashing, witty, bon viveur and international lover (lets call him mr w1), and two dark haired impossibly pretty young ladies (lets go with miss B and miss c - I can't possibly imagine who they may be referring to, can you?). I put it to you that in such a scenario, there really is at no point a non-essential member (fnarr, fnarr) so to speak.

I would make so bold as to venture that the above scenario is essential in all and every scenario - indoors, outdoors, wherever - and indeed should be compulsory. So with the greatest respect Ms Health Minister I don't believe a ban would apply here.

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In a dramatic sign of the coronavirus' anticipated toll, the Army Corps of Engineers is planning to convert vacant hotels, college dormitories and other facilities into intensive care wards with tens of thousands of makeshift hospital beds, first in New York but probably expanding to California and other states.

That announcement Friday at a Pentagon news conference by Lt. Gen Todd T. Semonite, commander of Army Corps of Engineers, marks an escalation of the U.S. military role. Already it is providing 2,000 ventilators and 5 million protective masks and preparing to dispatch hospital ships on both coasts. Governors are calling up thousands of National Guard troops.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Man dies after self-medicating with chloroquine phosphate to treat coronavirus

https://nypost.com/2020/03/23/man-dies-after-self-medicating-with-chloroquine-phosphate-to-treat-coronavirus/

"Within 30 minutes of taking chloroquine phosphate, the man in his 60s experienced “immediate effects” and had to be admitted to a nearby Banner Health hospital, the medical system in Arizona said in a press release Monday.

His wife, also in her 60s, is in critical condition after taking the additive, which is used in aquariums to kill some organisms, like algae, that may harm fish."

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


I've never washed my hands so much as I have in the past three days. Dealing with locked doors, so "who" enters can be screen. Filling out forms and having temp taken with every entrance to a building.

I'am going to have the "Permission to Travel" paper framed, when all this is done.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Man dies after self-medicating with chloroquine phosphate to treat coronavirus

https://nypost.com/2020/03/23/man-dies-after-self-medicating-with-chloroquine-phosphate-to-treat-coronavirus/

"Within 30 minutes of taking chloroquine phosphate, the man in his 60s experienced “immediate effects” and had to be admitted to a nearby Banner Health hospital, the medical system in Arizona said in a press release Monday.

His wife, also in her 60s, is in critical condition after taking the additive, which is used in aquariums to kill some organisms, like algae, that may harm fish."

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ORIGINAL: warspite1
I put it to you