Slitherine

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As the weather warms up, people are gathering in droves to get drunk under the blossoming cherry trees, some restaurants are offering 30% “Beat The Coronavirus” discounts, public transport is full and even amusement parks are reopening.

So why aren’t more people dying? Japan has recorded a mere 49 deaths from Covid-19.

The answer is not simple: multiple factors are at work.

However, a Japanese official who gave an off-the-record briefing to Asia Times suggested that a “don’t ask, don’t tell” strategy, based on minimal testing and buttressed by information massage, has been quietly emplaced.

That may sound opaque – even inhuman. But it has ensured national calm and continued economic activity. It has kept the medical system from being overwhelmed and rests on a strong foundation: world-class treatment of the disease’s main symptomatic killer, pneumonia.

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ORIGINAL: Kull

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ORIGINAL: alanschu

Unfortunate about Italy though based on say, China, I suspect that part of the flattening will involve an actual plateau, as opposed to a sudden decline.

It's funny how anxious I am for their results hahaha.

I won't have granularity until the province data is available tomorrow, but here's a quick look at the trend based on the new country total. The rate of increase at the country level has stayed roughly the same for two days now. The death rate increase, while high, is definitely a trailing indicator and yet still a lot lower than it was a few days ago.

Also, the numbers posted by ITAKLinus are not accurate. I used the 3/24 update from Worldometers, which has proven to be correct (at least with respect to countries whose data we trust)

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ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

A few things:

Japan
This is a very interesting article on what's happening in Japan: Japan’s winning its quiet fight against Covid-19

The piece was edited by one of the chaps I had beers with on Friday night. Here's an excerpt:

quote:

As the weather warms up, people are gathering in droves to get drunk under the blossoming cherry trees, some restaurants are offering 30% “Beat The Coronavirus” discounts, public transport is full and even amusement parks are reopening.

So why aren’t more people dying? Japan has recorded a mere 49 deaths from Covid-19.

The answer is not simple: multiple factors are at work.

However, a Japanese official who gave an off-the-record briefing to Asia Times suggested that a “don’t ask, don’t tell” strategy, based on minimal testing and buttressed by information massage, has been quietly emplaced.

That may sound opaque – even inhuman. But it has ensured national calm and continued economic activity. It has kept the medical system from being overwhelmed and rests on a strong foundation: world-class treatment of the disease’s main symptomatic killer, pneumonia.

Cheers,
CB

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ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Obvert: One other factor is that things may change in Japan now that the Olympics are being pushed back. Maybe they'll become more transparent.

By the way, regarding:

"However, one tantalizing possibility – that the vaccination program for pneumonia which Japan has been enacting for the elderly since 2014 may be acting as a shield against Covid-19 – has not yet been scrutinized."

This idea has been shot down on my friend's Facebook page by various medical professionals.

Cheers,
CB

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ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

A few things:

Japan
This is a very interesting article on what's happening in Japan: Japan’s winning its quiet fight against Covid-19

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ORIGINAL: geofflambert

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

??????????

May/June 1998 issue of Columbia Journalism Review “Factoid Watch: Food poisoning's phony figures".

By Dan Wilson

Can you pull that?

So far only from here and I have no "Sign In"


https://go.gale.com/ps/anonymous?id=GALE%7CA20620070&sid=googleScholar&v=2.1&it=r&linkaccess=abs&issn=0010194X&p=AONE&sw=w

I went to see how far I got. Apparently some public libraries have credentials, so if you know somebody ...

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


Japan
Confirmed: 1,193
Deaths: 43
Recovered: 285
Active: 865


One boon may be the Japanese eat a anti-inflammatory diet.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Some stuff the public health people don't tell you:

"pre-existing condition" includes not just the obvious stuff like CHF and COPD and diabetes...but also hyperlipidemia and hypertension, both of which are extremely prevalent in middle aged adults. Then there is smoking and drinking. You know those friends who start to get red noses and cheeks as they age? Well, that is often microvascular disease from yeast ****. It's not just on the face either. It's in the lungs and it causes "shunting" which destroys the efficiency of gas exchange.

You use an inhaler twice a year? You have a mild form of chronic lung disease. Smoked for 10 years as a kid? Still got some lung disease. The point is if you start including everything as a pre-existing condition a large number of those over 40 have one. It is a trick the public health people use to avoid causing panic.

Do what you can to avoid this thing. Try to delay getting sick until there is a possible window of less transmissibility in the summer or there is a good prophylactic or therapeutic treatment or, even better, a vaccine. You need to lasso in everyone in your house and get your parents or grandparents to a very safe place with few people in the residence, no kids and almost no visitors. Over age 80 the rate of sever disease is truly shocking.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: witpqs
The trouble with anti-body testing (AFAIK) is that it does not confirm when a person was infected or developed the anti-bodies, so by the time that could be done it still might do nothing to confirm this theory.

A single serologic antibody survey is like a snapshot: it tells you what was happening at the time the blood was drawn. For a time study, one can perform paired samples: acute and convalescent serologic surveys. Check antibodies at time 0 and time 0+ down the line.

I think we can assume that there was no seroconversion to COVID-19 in GB prior to September 2019. So you can use some stored public serum for your t=0 snapshot. Then compare to whenever (e.g., now) you want your next snapshot.

If the authors of that theory are serious, then they need to provide some baseline evidence of seroconversion in the UK populace prior to, or in January 2020. Why don't they get some National Health / blood bank stored serum from there to buttress their computer model? My jaundiced worldview says its because they're some computer modeling wankers that are out of touch with reality, but I could be wrong.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities.

I read a paper by two human Chinese radiologists on their use of CT compared to RT-PCR for interpretational diagnostics. They claimed 97% sensitivity, but repeatedly glossed over specificity. That's only about 70%-from their 'official data'.

It's an interesting finding, if true. But the RSNA (Radiologic Society of North America) is still not recommending CT as a screening tool-probably because you have a grossly contaminated CT suite that is not amenable to decontamination between patients.

https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200843

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

COVID-19: Spain surpasses China’s death toll
Over last 24-hours, country reported 738 deaths, raising death toll to 3,434, confirmed nearly 8,000 new cases

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The Chicoms actually accepted lung CT as diagnostic for inclusion into the COVID-19 numbers. They also didn't have enough test kits either at the start. Plus, you can estimate the amount of COPD as well and it was probably useful to tell who would need a vent soon.

I suspect by the time this is over you just throw away your worn out $1M CT machine and don't bother with disinfecting the thing

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

I saw this article last night positing a reason for the situation in Italy.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/24/the-italian-connection/

The author's theory is that the virus got into Italy's health care system as mild cases not recognized at the time, and has wound up hitting those elderly and vulnerable people whom we know have been hardest hit. The small updates at the end add new info that seems to mitigate in favor of his theory.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

As for Japan, I suspect it's not "pneumonia" vaccine programs. The vaccine is specific for pneumococcus. The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities. Plus, sick patients usually ARE treated with antibiotics and it doesn't seem to work very well.

possible explanations:

1) A very large number of the initial cases in Japan were from the SS Princess Coronavirus. They knew ahead of time who had the disease with a high level of certainty. These patients were all carefully isolated

2) The Chinese don't very much like the Japanese and I think it's mutual. Last time a large number of Chinese tried to visit Japan the "divine wind" came along and killed them all. I don't think there is very much of a Chinese expat community in Japan like there is in Hawaii and SF and LA and Vancouver and NY and Singapore for eg.

3) Japan has a 100% water frontier.

4) The Japanese public respects seniors and those in authority and they culturally understand the value in social order. They don't go to freaking Spring Break and drink from common beer bongs. In the US, the Surgeon General had to ask the Kardashians for help.

5) Japanese seniors are MUCH healthier than almost any other population. Essentially everyone over about 78 in Japan grew up in wartime deprivation. It turns out if Curtis LeMay didn't drop incendiaries or a nuke on your head, living on calorie restriction in childhood confers longevity. Of course, it does make for lousy basketball teams.

6) Excellent cadre of skilled health providers in Japan and advanced technology

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

As for Japan, I suspect it's not "pneumonia" vaccine programs. The vaccine is specific for pneumococcus. The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities. Plus, sick patients usually ARE treated with antibiotics and it doesn't seem to work very well.

possible explanations:

1) A very large number of the initial cases in Japan were from the SS Princess Coronavirus. They knew ahead of time who had the disease with a high level of certainty. These patients were all carefully isolated

2) The Chinese don't very much like the Japanese and I think it's mutual. Last time a large number of Chinese tried to visit Japan the "divine wind" came along and killed them all. I don't think there is very much of a Chinese expat community in Japan like there is in Hawaii and SF and LA and Vancouver and NY and Singapore for eg.

3) Japan has a 100% water frontier.

4) The Japanese public respects seniors and those in authority and they culturally understand the value in social order. They don't go to freaking Spring Break and drink from common beer bongs. In the US, the Surgeon General had to ask the Kardashians for help.

5) Japanese seniors are MUCH healthier than almost any other population. Essentially everyone over about 78 in Japan grew up in wartime deprivation. It turns out if Curtis LeMay didn't drop incendiaries or a nuke on your head, living on calorie restriction in childhood confers longevity. Of course, it does make for lousy basketball teams.

6) Excellent cadre of skilled health providers in Japan and advanced technology

Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments.

So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

LA Times article about mathematically predicting the peak of Chinese COVID-19.

A total braniac dude who won the Nobel Prize for Chemistry for using mathematical techniques to examine molecular systems takes the Chinese data...sees an inflection point and realizes they are turning the corner..derives a function matching the data..first derivative..solves for zero..presto change-o...he predicts the date and the maximum number of cases to astounding precision.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

We need to get this guy in here to explain Japanese production