HMSWarspite
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Joined: 4/13/2002
From: Bristol, UK
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Von Rom
[B]Hi :)
As noted above in an earlier post, most of Germany's initial 65 U-boats were built in secret. Most submariners were trained in secret.
300 U-boats (at least many of them, would also have been built in secret). The problem was not material or opportunity, but Hitler's lack of strategic vision, and his desire to start the war sooner, rather than later. . .[/B][/QUOTE]
Excuse me...what is this fantasy that Germany built the U boats in secret? They DESIGNED them in secret, but the existance of the German submarine programme was know about. The Anglo-German naval treaty of 1935 allowed Germany:
"(f) In the matter of submarines, however, Germany, while not exceeding the ratio of 35:100 in respect of total tonnage, shall have the right to possess a submarine tonnage equal to the total submarine tonnage possessed by the Members of the British Commonwealth of Nations. The German Government, however, undertake that, except in the circumstances indicated in the immediately following sentence, Germany's submarine tonnage
shall not exceed 45% of the total of that possessed by the Members of the British Commonwealth of Nations. The German Government reserve the right, in the event of a situation arising which in their opinion makes it
necessary for Germany to avail herself of her right to a percentage of submarine tonnage exceeding the 45% abovementioned, to give notice to this effect to His Majesty's Government in the United Kingdom and agree that the matter shall be the subject of friendly discussion before the German Government exercise that right."
(quote from a Note from the UK Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs to the German Ambassador, London) (ref http://www.warships1.com/W-INRO/INRO_Anglo_German_Agreement_1935.htm)
There is a view that this was agreed to by Britain because thay knew it was happening anyway, and by Germany because they couldn't build fast enough to exceed the treaty levels anyway.
[QUOTE] [B]Even so, the USA had had the opportunity to observe the German U-boat from Sept 1939 until Jan 1942 (more than two years of actual war), and yet still had almost no defense against them when they struck along the eastern seaboard on Jan 13, 1942 (despite warnings from British intelligence), and sank ship after ship for another 6 months. . . [/B][/QUOTE]
I did grant that, however this was very much against the developing run of losses on the North Atlantic. I have never understood (and nor did the UK sources I have read) why on earth the US was caught out so badly.
[QUOTE] [B]A bit of information:
WWI and WWII
In World War I, the "primitive Imperial Navy U-boat force had come very close to imposing a war-winning maritime blockade aginst Great Britain. Had Germany built large numbers of U-boats rather than big ships for the High Seas Fleet, and had the Kaiser authorized unrestricted U-boat warfare in the first year of the war, [Admiral Karl] Donitz concluded, Germany could have achieved an early and decisive naval victory over the Allies. With proper organization and planning and modern submarines and new tactics, he believed victory could be realized in the war he saw coming" (Clay Blair, Hitler's U-Boat War: the Hunters 1939-1942, Random House, NY, 1996, p.37).[/B][/QUOTE]
No challenge to that, although he discounts the huge difference that the convoy made (even without effective anti sub detectors and weapons). I think it would be interesting to see what a greater U Boat war would have done in WW1. Also, early unlimited UBoat attacks might bring in the US earlier, and politically and emotionally were very difficult (which is why they were interupted).
[QUOTE] [B]In addition to World War One, had Hitler put more resources into building and utilizing U-boats in the Second World War, the German Navy "might well have defeated England (and thus denied the United States that island base from which to mount a joint American-British invasion of German-occupied Europe). . ." (Michael Gannon, Operation Drumbeat Harper & Row, New York, NY, 1990, p.xix). Admiral Donitz "easily imagined the crippling blow he could have delivered with a three-hundred-boat fleet in that first year before British defenses stiffened" (Ibid., p.75).
With regard to North America, Donitz originally wanted to send one hundred submarines to attack the United States, but he only had twelve U-boats "to strike simultaneously against offshore North America from Halifax in the north to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, in the south" (Ibid., p.74). This large number of submarines would have caused untold devastation.
Operation Paukenschlag (Drumbeat): the War Against America
With the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbour on Dec 7, 1941 Hitler was bound by a promise to Japan to also declare war on the US. He did so promptly on December 11 and after that all restrictions on German U-boats not to attack American shipping were removed. This opened up a whole new field for Dönitz who immediately drew up plans for a devastatingly swift blow on the US eastern seaboard. "When the Fuhrer declared war on the United States. . . Donitz would be poised to strike a blow against the United States as sudden and as jarring as a beat on a kettledrum. And that, he decided, was what he would call it: Operation Paukenschlag ("Operation Drumbeat")" (Gannon, Operation Drumbeat, p.xvii).
On January 13, 1942 six German U-boats initiated a surprise attack along the east coast of the United States that resulted in America's Atlantic Pearl Harbour. Just two months after suffering the crippling Japanese attack at Hawaii, the Americans were once again taken by surprise (despite being warned by British intelligence). On that first day German U-boats sank 25 ships. Over the course of six months, wave after wave of U-boats attacked shipping off the American and Canadian coasts. The result? "The United States had virtually no defense against the U-boats and, in the first six months of 1942, lost 585 ships totaling over 3,081,000 tons" (Hawkins, Vincent B., "Doentiz, Karl", in Brassey's Encyclopedia of Military History and Biography, Ed. by Franklin D. Margiotta, Brassey's, Washington: 2000, p.276).
"The ships sunk in the campaign in the Americas in this period constitute about one-quarter of all Allied shipping sunk by German U-boats in World War II. Thus, the campaign was the single most important of the war in terms of sinkings achieved in a relatively brief time period for effort expended - the high-water mark of the U-boat war" (Clay Blair, Hitler's U-Boat War: the Hunters 1939-1942, Random House, NY, 1996, p.694).
Admiral Donitz had been right - the United States was defenseless against his U-boats - they had proven to be the perfect silent killers.
Cheers! [/B][/QUOTE]
This , whilst true, is still missing the point I was making. There IS undoubtably a number of U Boats that would win the war for Germany, or at least force a stalemate in their favour. I do not know whether 300 from day 1, or 500, or 1000 is the number. However, Germany could NOT build up a force of 300 by 1939 without some response by the Western Europeans. (Or even at all - has anyone got any idea what the German ship building industry was capable of in 1935-39?)
If you want to play 'what if games' a MUCH more realistic one is the one a mentioned earlier: keep the historic number of U Boats at the start of the war, and introduce a full, competant U Boat staff, proper scientific research once U boat losses start rising, and elimination of the almost religious faith in Naval Enigma. This would (to me) produce a more likely set of changes, without giving the Allies stimulus to counter them. If you still are not content, you could then up the U Boat production rate by 10% or so, due to better prioritisation.
The 300+ U Boats by Sept 1939 is in the same catagory as a full Plan Z fleet by 1942 I am afraid...it would have been countered, and probably wasn't even possible.
_____________________________
I have a cunning plan, My Lord
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