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- 7/26/2003 11:34:07 PM   
TIMJOT

 

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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Von Rom
[B]

There is much talk that any of Germany's actions or anything it built could be countered, etc. But politics and human nature run counter to this thinking.

[/B][/QUOTE]



I would also add, that where as the Kriegsmarine could have easily cancelled the 2 BCs, 2 BBs, 4 CAs and 2 CVs to make the construction of 300 Uboats possible. Britain on the otherhand cound NOT have correspondingly cancelled the 3 KGIVs BBs, 3 Indomitibles CVs, and 6 Southhamptons CAs to make room for the matching ASW construction. The Royal Navy was a World Navy with World commitments. Even if they knew exactly how many Uboats were being constructed (doubtful). At best they could have increased production as they did for A/C and AFV, but would not be able to overtake or even match it.

Personally I doubt that 300 uboats could win the war, but I do agree that regardless Germany could have built them if they had so wished and Britain could not have effectively countered them if they tried. Unless perhaps if the US had transfered many more 4 pipers which were available.

(in reply to U2)
Post #: 151
- 7/27/2003 1:05:03 AM   
Apollo11


Posts: 24082
Joined: 6/7/2001
From: Zagreb, Croatia
Status: offline
Hi all,

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Von Rom
[B]



By mid-1941, Germany was at the height of its power. But for some incredibly short-sighted and stupid actions, and some incredible luck, Germany had the potential for success.



[/B][/QUOTE]

First of all I would like to say that the world was lucky that Germans didn't
succeed and that lunatic Hitler was leading them.


The other thing is that their peak of power was not in summer of 1941 but in
summer of 1940.

After the success in the west (against France, Belgium and Netherlands) they
were the strongest. But Hitler then demobilized some units and never prepared
for total war he wanted to lead (i.e. war against Russia).

The state of German armed forces in summer of 1941 (war with Russia) was not
better than in summer of 1940 (successful finish of war in the west France /
Belgium / Netherlands).

The number of units did increase but this was mostly on paper (i.e. newly
created units on behalf of weakening of existing ones).

The weapon systems also didn't improve much at all.

All in all Hitler practically lost the war during this almost 1 year period...


Leo "Apollo11"

(in reply to U2)
Post #: 152
Germany - 7/27/2003 1:13:54 AM   
mogami


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Hi, While I agree things could have been much harder I doubt Germany could have ever forced the USA out of the war. Without a Navy to cross the Atlantic and occupy Washington D.C. It becomes simply a question of how long will it take the USA to mount their invasion of Europe. (assuming the wildly improbable surrender of British Empire)

We know the U-boats will be castrated in 43. We know the USA will begin producing their bombs in 45. The USA has enough non European Allies to make things rough in the mean time. (The USA would clobber Japan faster)

The USA out produced every other Nation combined. The USA gave away more equipment then Germany and Japan combined produced.

It's not a question of "IF" but of "when"

I often wonder why people just assume the USA is some kind of punk nation. (It's always proved once you wake it up your screwed)

By the end of 1940 the world had learned a hard lesson. This was simply you could not surrender to Germany.

_____________________________






I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

(in reply to U2)
Post #: 153
- 7/27/2003 1:53:57 AM   
juliet7bravo

 

Posts: 894
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The Brits could not, and would not, have reacted in any meaningful way to an increase in the number of operational U-boats during the pre-early war years. They initially refused (shades of WW1) to institute an convoy system. They refused to place long range bombers on ASW patrol/release them to Coastal Command. Their ASW measures stank. Period. The first 2-3 aircraft to attempt to bomb surfaced U-boats literally shot themselves down when the bombs bounced off and hit the AC. The Brits would have did nothing. They didn't have the will, the money, or the technology. Vitually everything needed to wage war was imported via ship. Say what you want about Lend-Lease...but the POTUS made sure he'd stripped the Brits of just about every portable asset they had first. This includes gold reserves and making them sell off US based assets at fire sell prices.

The US went through EXACTLY the same gyrations once they entered the war. These are the biggest sins laid on Ernie Kings doorstep. The POTUS had to literally order him to start producing PC's as King flatly refused to do so.

Both the Brit's and USN initially tried using Hunter/Killer groups to hunt U-boats...a totally failed concept, that only became effective once the escort carrier became widely used, and the weapons, tactics, and doctrine was worked out. The techniques, tactics, and technology used to successfully negate the U-boat threat were developed over a period of time, and under the pressure of survival. This wouldn't have happened pre-war, mostly because they'd (those guys) "decided" that the submarine threat had been totally negated by the invention of ASDIC, aircraft, and treaties aginst "unrestricted submarine warfare". Overlooking the fact that ASDIC really isn't that effective, most of their "ASW" didn't have it anyway, their DC's were mostly useless, and they wouldn't release AC for ASW (Gotta bomb the Reich!).

The Germans COULD have increased the numbers of U-boats available. They were planning for war in '45 (Plan "Z"?). Hitler, in his infinite wisdom had other plans. They had the capability, the limiting factor was that Hitler wouldn't give them the resources needed. Don't forget, this is the period when Hitler was ordering them to use concrete bombs, and bombs made from gas cylinders because they'd failed to prep for the war. Hitler never put the German economy on a war footing. During the early war period, Germany had the highest standard of living in Europe, possibly in the world. At peak production, the 3rd Reich never reached war material production levels reached during WW1.

You can talk about the German torpedo problems...but one look at the tonnage sunk shows that it wasn't exactly a show-stopper. If they'd been more reliable, it woulda been...for the Brits. The US out-produced everyone combined...but they weren't during the peak U-boat threat period. They were just getting warmed up, for that matter, the US economy was just peaking when the war ended. When the US entered the war, the Brits were about one convoy from throwing in the towel. Historical fact, not speculation.

(in reply to U2)
Post #: 154
- 7/27/2003 2:10:57 AM   
HMSWarspite

 

Posts: 1401
Joined: 4/13/2002
From: Bristol, UK
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I do not doubt that it was well within the bounds of possibility for Ge to win the European war and (by keeping the US out), hence the world war. However, I still believe the way to do it is not some hypothetical 300 sub building programme from 1935-39. I do not understand why no one is following the much easier arguement about the more effective use of what they had. The U Boat arm was crippled by their lack of knowledge of Allied HF/DF, centimetric radar, and most importantly the penetrations of Enigma.
By 1941, the U-Boats had basically not changed their equipment (excepting the Torpedoes), the UK was using (experimentally or in service) centimentric radar, improved Asdic(sonar), forward throwing weapons, HF/DF, systematic training 'games' for ASW training of task forces, etc etc, and most importantly reading U Boat traffic for significant periods from May for the rest of the year, Referring to 'British Intelligence in the Second World War' (the official history), and 'Enigma The Battle for the Code' (High Senag-Montefiore)
"Enigma's greatest contribution to the war at sea occurred when it helped Britain to defeat the U boats in the Atlantic between October and November 1941. ... If sinkings of merchant ships supplying Britain had increased proportionately with the number of new U boats coming in to service during the second half of 1941 and the early part of 1942 - as would probably have been the case had Enigma not been broken - who knows what might have been the result?". Granted the UK convoy codes were penetrated, but that was at least corrected.
An interesting exercise: plot losses (monthly) to U Boats, vs the periods where the U Boats codes were being read fairly continuously. Now exclude all those periods, and fill in the gap with the average losses whilst the codes were not being read (scaled by the Uboats at sea). Now see what the total shipping losses were. I have never seen this done, and may get around to it one day.

As for Drumbeat.. impressive but irrelevant to the U Boat war. As soon as the US came in, the writing was on the wall. In one way, the 1942 happy time did the Germans no favours: sank a lot of replaceable ships, and masked from them to an extent the fact that they were not winning the U Boat war. By 1943, it was all over. Yes there were some horific convoy battles (HX229&SC122 for example), but in terms of pure shipping sunk, 1943 showed it was all over. I think that 1942 might have given them the stimulus to improve were it not for Drumbeat (racy theory, but why not?)

_____________________________

I have a cunning plan, My Lord

(in reply to U2)
Post #: 155
- 7/27/2003 5:38:31 AM   
Von Rom


Posts: 1705
Joined: 5/12/2000
Status: offline
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Apollo11
[B]Hi all,



First of all I would like to say that the world was lucky that Germans didn't
succeed and that lunatic Hitler was leading them.


The other thing is that their peak of power was not in summer of 1941 but in
summer of 1940.

After the success in the west (against France, Belgium and Netherlands) they
were the strongest. But Hitler then demobilized some units and never prepared
for total war he wanted to lead (i.e. war against Russia).

The state of German armed forces in summer of 1941 (war with Russia) was not
better than in summer of 1940 (successful finish of war in the west France /
Belgium / Netherlands).

The number of units did increase but this was mostly on paper (i.e. newly
created units on behalf of weakening of existing ones).

The weapon systems also didn't improve much at all.

All in all Hitler practically lost the war during this almost 1 year period...
Leo "Apollo11" [/B][/QUOTE]

In June, 1941 Operation BARBAROSSA began with over 3 million German soldiers, 3,300 tanks and 2,000 aircraft, organized into three Army Groups.

This is not an insignificant number. But I know exactly what you are referring to. :)

When I mentioned the summer of 1941, I was referring to the peak or extent of their success before Barbarossa began.

And you are very correct - Germany actually de-mobilized troops in '41, and cut back on production.

Germany did not reach Total War production until 1943-44 under Speer, and this during the height of the Allied bombing offensive.

For several years, Germany had unused capacity in all areas, including armour, infantry and U-boats.

Had full industrial capacity (or close to it) been implemented just prior to, and after, Sept 1, 1939, things might look a bit different.

This goes hand-in-hand with the U-boat building from 1935 on. . .

In 1936, Germany built 36 U-boats. In 1937 only one was built; in 1938 only 13 were built; and in 1939 only 18 were completed.

This clearly indicates unused building capacity. Again, had only 30 U-boats been built each year between 1936 up to 1939, Germany would have begun the war with 126 U-boats (including the 36 commissioned in 1936), and not 65.

I believe had greater priority been given to the U-boat arm, even this number might have been exceeded, considering ALL research, design, testing, parts, training, prototypes, shipyards, etc, had been completed in secret years prior to 1935.

It is the potential of what might have been that is of concern here, had the German High Command realised from the beginning what could be accomplished with the U-boat.

_____________________________


(in reply to U2)
Post #: 156
Re: Germany - 7/27/2003 5:53:56 AM   
Von Rom


Posts: 1705
Joined: 5/12/2000
Status: offline
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Mogami
[B]Hi, While I agree things could have been much harder I doubt Germany could have ever forced the USA out of the war. Without a Navy to cross the Atlantic and occupy Washington D.C. It becomes simply a question of how long will it take the USA to mount their invasion of Europe. (assuming the wildly improbable surrender of British Empire)

We know the U-boats will be castrated in 43. We know the USA will begin producing their bombs in 45. The USA has enough non European Allies to make things rough in the mean time. (The USA would clobber Japan faster)

The USA out produced every other Nation combined. The USA gave away more equipment then Germany and Japan combined produced.

It's not a question of "IF" but of "when"

I often wonder why people just assume the USA is some kind of punk nation. (It's always proved once you wake it up your screwed)

By the end of 1940 the world had learned a hard lesson. This was simply you could not surrender to Germany. [/B][/QUOTE]

The situation must be looked at in its entirety. The U-boat could not win the war on its own; but it was, and could have been, a fundamental tool in its prosecution.

What I also mentioned was the series of mistakes that Hitler made that led to Germany's downfall.

A few of them:

1) Failure to produce large numbers of U-boats leading up to 1939, and afterwards.

2) Failure to bag all the Allied troops at Dunkirk (over 330,000 were allowed to escape). Guderian was ordered to stop.

3) Failure to seize North Africa before the attack on the USSR.

4) Hitler's incredibly stupid declaration of war on the USA in Dec, 1941.

5) Failure to gear the economy for Total War.

6) And on, and on, and on. . . .

The failure to produce more U-boats is just part of the over-all picture of the lost potential Germany had to achieve greater success.

In many ways, the Allies received some incredibly lucky breaks. In others, Hitler's own stupididty led to disasterous situations (Stalingrad anyone?).

Had Hitler left the war in the hands of his most capable officers, I am afraid of what might have happened between 1939 and 1941 - even before the USA was dragged into the war.

If Britain had been knocked out of the war - what then?

_____________________________


(in reply to U2)
Post #: 157
Re: Re: Germany - 7/27/2003 6:01:29 AM   
Chiteng

 

Posts: 7666
Joined: 2/20/2001
From: Raleigh,nc,usa
Status: offline
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Von Rom
[B]The situation must be looked at in its entirety. The U-boat could not win the war on its own; but it was, and could have been, a fundamental tool in its prosecution.

What I also mentioned was the series of mistakes that Hitler made that led to Germany's downfall.

A few of them:

1) Failure to produce large numbers of U-boats leading up to 1939, and afterwards.

2) Failure to bag all the Allied troops at Dunkirk (over 330,000 were allowed to escape). Guderian was ordered to stop.

3) Failure to seize North Africa before the attack on the USSR.

4) Hitler's incredibly stupid declaration of war on the USA in Dec, 1941.

5) Failure to gear the economy for Total War.

6) And on, and on, and on. . . .

The failure to produce more U-boats is just part of the over-all picture of the lost potential Germany had to achieve greater success.

In many ways, the Allies received some incredibly lucky breaks. In others, Hitler's own stupididty led to disasterous situations (Stalingrad anyone?).

Had Hitler left the war in the hands of his most capable officers, I am afraid of what might have happened between 1939 and 1941 - even before the USA was dragged into the war.

If Britain had been knocked out of the war - what then? [/B][/QUOTE]


In 'Lost Victories' Manstein states his opinion that the ONLY
way to end the war on German terms was to invade and defeat
England. He goes into great detail about all the other options,
and NONE of them, result in victory on German terms.
Not even the defeat of the USSR.

_____________________________

“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

French Priest

"Statistic

(in reply to U2)
Post #: 158
- 7/27/2003 6:07:20 AM   
Von Rom


Posts: 1705
Joined: 5/12/2000
Status: offline
[QUOTE]Originally posted by HMSWarspite
[B]I do not doubt that it was well within the bounds of possibility for Ge to win the European war and (by keeping the US out), hence the world war. However, I still believe the way to do it is not some hypothetical 300 sub building programme from 1935-39. I do not understand why no one is following the much easier arguement about the more effective use of what they had. The U Boat arm was crippled by their lack of knowledge of Allied HF/DF, centimetric radar, and most importantly the penetrations of Enigma.
By 1941, the U-Boats had basically not changed their equipment (excepting the Torpedoes), the UK was using (experimentally or in service) centimentric radar, improved Asdic(sonar), forward throwing weapons, HF/DF, systematic training 'games' for ASW training of task forces, etc etc, and most importantly reading U Boat traffic for significant periods from May for the rest of the year, Referring to 'British Intelligence in the Second World War' (the official history), and 'Enigma The Battle for the Code' (High Senag-Montefiore)
"Enigma's greatest contribution to the war at sea occurred when it helped Britain to defeat the U boats in the Atlantic between October and November 1941. ... If sinkings of merchant ships supplying Britain had increased proportionately with the number of new U boats coming in to service during the second half of 1941 and the early part of 1942 - as would probably have been the case had Enigma not been broken - who knows what might have been the result?". Granted the UK convoy codes were penetrated, but that was at least corrected.
An interesting exercise: plot losses (monthly) to U Boats, vs the periods where the U Boats codes were being read fairly continuously. Now exclude all those periods, and fill in the gap with the average losses whilst the codes were not being read (scaled by the Uboats at sea). Now see what the total shipping losses were. I have never seen this done, and may get around to it one day.

As for Drumbeat.. impressive but irrelevant to the U Boat war. As soon as the US came in, the writing was on the wall. In one way, the 1942 happy time did the Germans no favours: sank a lot of replaceable ships, and masked from them to an extent the fact that they were not winning the U Boat war. By 1943, it was all over. Yes there were some horific convoy battles (HX229&SC122 for example), but in terms of pure shipping sunk, 1943 showed it was all over. I think that 1942 might have given them the stimulus to improve were it not for Drumbeat (racy theory, but why not?) [/B][/QUOTE]

There seems to be some misunderstanding. Donitz had wanted a 300 U-boat fleet, but had planned to have it by 1942, the year Hitler had promised his High Command that war would be started. Hitler jumped the gun.

And if Hitler had waited until 1942, Germany would have been even stronger (with a U-boat fleet 5 times the size of the one it had in 1939), while the USA, in all probabilty, would have remained isolationist and ill prepared.

As things stand, I see no reason why Germany could not have started the war with about 120 U-boats (or twice what it started with), given the available capacity it had. It did build 36 U-boats in 1936.

The U-boat could not have won the war all by itself. However, if used in larger numbers, with a better strategy in mind, and in concert with all the other tools Germany had, then the situation would have been bleak indeed.

Operation Drumbeat irrelevant? A dozen U-boats sink 585 ships. The single most successful U-boat operation of the war. Irrelevant?

Cheers!

_____________________________


(in reply to U2)
Post #: 159
Re: Re: Re: Germany - 7/27/2003 6:29:24 AM   
Von Rom


Posts: 1705
Joined: 5/12/2000
Status: offline
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Chiteng
[B]In 'Lost Victories' Manstein states his opinion that the ONLY
way to end the war on German terms was to invade and defeat
England. He goes into great detail about all the other options,
and NONE of them, result in victory on German terms.
Not even the defeat of the USSR. [/B][/QUOTE]

During the darkest days of the Battle of Britain, Churchill considered that Britain would fall. In that event, he had instructed the Monarchy and the Royal Navy to be sent to Canada. And from there continue the prosecution of the war. Churchill, himself, had decided to stay and fight.

We soon forget that Britain and her Commonwealth stood all alone against the German juggernaut. And how close the war hung in the balance. . .

If Britain had been knocked out of the war before the USA entry into it, what then?

Gone would be the unsinkable island carrier from which the Allies launched the invasion of Europe.

Yes, things would look very different. . .

_____________________________


(in reply to U2)
Post #: 160
- 7/27/2003 8:35:21 AM   
Nikademus


Posts: 25684
Joined: 5/27/2000
From: Alien spacecraft
Status: offline
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Mr.Frag
[B]Missing the point really ... yes, the Allieds almost caught up in building compared to losses but those ships sunk were also full of supplies. Just because you replaced the losses ship wise barely, doesn't mean the supplies got to the Uk and Russia. If they had, the war would have been over years sooner.

Just looking at it from a weight perspective, assume a Sherman + ammo = 50 tons ... thats over 30,000 tanks that could have make it accross the shores to fight that didn't. Pretty dramatic for a handful of U-Boats.

This is with the old crap boats, which were really not up to the task by submarine standards. Had Germany had the XXI designs soon enough to enter the war (the first real submarine), I have to wonder if the building capacity would have even mattered. [/B][/QUOTE]

no, not missing the point. That was part of Blair's thesis. Most historians and others look at this total and say exactly what you just did, look at all the lost supplies and equipment.

But looks can be deceiving. Blair claims through his research and data that the U-boats in their entire campaign......1939 - 1945, sank only 1% of all laden transport between Britian and the US.

That means that 99% of all supplies, men and equipment made it to it's destination.

Many of the ships attacked, and many of the convoys slated for "wolfpack" operations were empty cargo ships.

So add that figure to the 30 million gross tons of merchant shipping in existance, the growing ability of the allies to produce even more shipping, and the increasing sophisitication of Allied ASW and you can see the problem i have with the "if only there had been more Uboats argument"

(in reply to U2)
Post #: 161
- 7/27/2003 8:53:17 AM   
Nikademus


Posts: 25684
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From: Alien spacecraft
Status: offline
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Von Rom
[B]Hi :)

I have read Blair's books. Yes, they contain a lot of data and stats and facts. . .

But one thing his books do not contain is the psychological impact of the U-boat campaign. The U-boat was a terror weapon.

The Allied leaders were men with human emotions, who read lists of ship sinkings and of dead soldiers and sailors. They had to take into account the lives of their men, something historians do not have to do. These men were also the product of their times: they lived through some of the darkest days of the 20th Century.

I believe Churchill over any historian, when he stated, "The only thing that ever frightened me during the war was the U-boat peril". He lived through every day of the war; he had access to all the in-coming reports; the secret intelligence, etc.

It is one thing to say to a merchant Captain in 1941: "Hey, the German U-boat can now only sink two ships per day." It is quite another to tell him: "One of those ships that might be sunk could be yours." [/B][/QUOTE]

Churchill was also a passionate man who once latched onto an idea would not let go of it like a German Shepard that has it's teeth sunk into a meety bone. No dig against the man. But all i'm saying is that just because he "says" his nitemare and fear was the U-boat doesn't mean it "was" one in reality or for every one else. Remember at that time he was strongly campaigning to get the Americans to do what he wanted to most of his abilities. If you want someone to come to your way of thinking, you might be tempted to overinflate or overemphasis in order to get your point across.

Churchill did not have all the facts at the time nor all the data so as such I have no doubt that while he did fear the Uboat, neither does that make that fear a reality nor does that mean his resolve would waver

I disagree too that the Uboat was a terror weapon. Uh uh. It was a means envisioned by Doneitz to knock a maritime empire out of a war with germany and to prevent others from bringing war to Europe under German control. In that function it failed.

As for dead soldiers....again this is a misconception. You said you've read Blair....yet you are ignoring a very salient point. The US suffered *NO* major troop convoy casualties caused by Uboats. The oft malinged Admiral King made a hard choice to use his ASW assets to protect the US troop convoys vs the merchants beset by Drumbeat. One can argue that decision but the point here is that there was no long list of "casualties" for the US leaders to haw and hem about.

Britian did suffer some casualties because they saw things differently and gave equal measure to both merchant and troop convoys so they did suffer losses. They did not waver nor were these losses crippling.

Increase the Uboats and yes you increase their potential, but i do not believe anything happens in a vaccum despite arguments to the contrary. 300 Uboats is a major change and despite problems in finance, i do not doubt that the UK and US would have responded in some measure to this. Maybe you'll increase the total loss from 1% to 10%......but would it be decisive? Uboats were far more of a "terror" during WWI and they still failed.

No.....300 uboats is no easy answer.

(in reply to U2)
Post #: 162
- 7/27/2003 4:49:28 PM   
HMSWarspite

 

Posts: 1401
Joined: 4/13/2002
From: Bristol, UK
Status: offline
[QUOTE]Originally posted by juliet7bravo
[B]The Brits could not, and would not, have reacted in any meaningful way to an increase in the number of operational U-boats during the pre-early war years. They initially refused (shades of WW1) to institute an convoy system.[/B][/QUOTE]

I do not know where you are getting your facts from, but most of them are inaccurate, or plain wrong. The convoy system was introduced as fast as could be done, given the number of escorts (unlike WW1). The system was always extended to any new area that started to suffer losses. It was very successful. Of the 1787 ships lost 9/39 to 6/41, only 362 were in convoy. This was known at the time, and every effort was made to increase the ships in convoy.

[QUOTE] [B] They refused to place long range bombers on ASW patrol/release them to Coastal Command. [/B][/QUOTE]

Correct, however refers to the new 4 engined types, from 1942 on. The refusal was in response to the agreed priorities of heavy bombers vs UBoats, and reflects (as much as anything) that the U Boat war was NOT at such a bad state that the priorities needed to be changed. Whether bombing Germany is a better way to win the war than sinking UBoats (or more accurately stopping them sinking ships - the main effect of aircover over convoys), that is a different question.

[QUOTE] [B]Their ASW measures stank. Period. The first 2-3 aircraft to attempt to bomb surfaced U-boats literally shot themselves down when the bombs bounced off and hit the AC.[/B][/QUOTE]

Sources please. I do not know where you get this from - UK ASW was amongst the best in the world. There were some issues (inappropriate use of Fleet carriers to hunt subs, no effective aircraft ASW weapon), but these were common to several navies, and VERY soon corrected.


[QUOTE] [B] The Brits would have did nothing. They didn't have the will, the money, or the technology. [/B][/QUOTE]

See above. Who invented Sonar, Radar, Squid and Hedgehog (forward thrown ASW weapons), most ASW tactics 1939-41?

[QUOTE] [B]Vitually everything needed to wage war was imported via ship. Say what you want about Lend-Lease...but the POTUS made sure he'd stripped the Brits of just about every portable asset they had first. This includes gold reserves and making them sell off US based assets at fire sell prices.[/B][/QUOTE]

How is this relevant? This (although exagerated) relates to after the start of the war, NOT 1935-39. Most Lend lease was actually on credit (because all the foreign exchange reserves were exhausted)

[QUOTE] [B]The US went through EXACTLY the same gyrations once they entered the war. These are the biggest sins laid on Ernie Kings doorstep. The POTUS had to literally order him to start producing PC's as King flatly refused to do so.[/B][/QUOTE]

Not relevant to 1935-39 (or early war). Why does everyone keep citing US actions in early 1942 as a justification for supposed UK activity (or lack of) in 1935-9, or 1941? The British pleaded with the US to do something about it.

[QUOTE] [B]Both the Brit's and USN initially tried using Hunter/Killer groups to hunt U-boats...a totally failed concept, that only became effective once the escort carrier became widely used, and the weapons, tactics, and doctrine was worked out.[/B][/QUOTE]

NOT true. The hunter killer group was a fundamental cause of the demise of the UBoat. The CVE was merely one additional weapon for the group, and most groups did not have one. Walker's group (one of the most successful) didn't have one. The mistake in the early war was that the HK groups should only have been set up once all convoys were adequately escorted. Once this was so, free ranging ASW vessels are essential to follow up contacts, whilst convoys sail on.

[QUOTE] [B] The techniques, tactics, and technology used to successfully negate the U-boat threat were developed over a period of time, and under the pressure of survival. This wouldn't have happened pre-war, mostly because they'd (those guys) "decided" that the submarine threat had been totally negated by the invention of ASDIC, aircraft, and treaties aginst "unrestricted submarine warfare". [/B][/QUOTE]

Completely overlooks that fact that UBoat tactics also evolved. 300 UBoats 1939 would NOT have been effective as 300 in 1942, because they did not have the experience, the French ports, etc.

[QUOTE] [B]Overlooking the fact that ASDIC really isn't that effective, most of their "ASW" didn't have it anyway, their DC's were mostly useless, and they wouldn't release AC for ASW (Gotta bomb the Reich!). [/B][/QUOTE]

In order: WHAT? Sources please. WHAT? Not true. I suspect the DC comment is the aircraft one I addressed earlier, the ship bourne charges were perfectly adequate. For example U16 sunk Oct 39 by DC, U27 sunk Sept 39 by DC etc etc. The point on aircraft (as said before) is 1942, NOT 1939.

[QUOTE] [B]The Germans COULD have increased the numbers of U-boats available. They were planning for war in '45 (Plan "Z"?). Hitler, in his infinite wisdom had other plans. They had the capability, the limiting factor was that Hitler wouldn't give them the resources needed. Don't forget, this is the period when Hitler was ordering them to use concrete bombs, and bombs made from gas cylinders because they'd failed to prep for the war. Hitler never put the German economy on a war footing. During the early war period, Germany had the highest standard of living in Europe, possibly in the world. At peak production, the 3rd Reich never reached war material production levels reached during WW1.[/B][/QUOTE]

I have never said that the Germans could not have increased UBoat production..merely that they could not have produced 300 (OCEAN GOING) subs by 1939, without unrealistic effort, and Allied counter measures. What effect would producting 300 subs have had on the battle for France (tanks anyone?), or the BOB (aircraft...)

[QUOTE] [B]You can talk about the German torpedo problems...but one look at the tonnage sunk shows that it wasn't exactly a show-stopper. If they'd been more reliable, it woulda been...for the Brits. [/B][/QUOTE]

Completely factuous comment. It was a show stopper for the Germans...THEY LOST THE UBOAT WAR! What realistic alternative history prefers to build a hypothetical 300 subs, rather than bring forward the an event (correction of the Torpedoes) that happened by a couple of years?

[QUOTE] [B]The US out-produced everyone combined...but they weren't during the peak U-boat threat period. They were just getting warmed up, for that matter, the US economy was just peaking when the war ended. When the US entered the war, the Brits were about one convoy from throwing in the towel. Historical fact, not speculation. [/B][/QUOTE]

The US production is not disputed in any way (or not by me!). I use it to say that by the US entry, the Germans were NEVER going to win the Uboat war. I do not know where you get the idea that the UK was one convoy from surrender in Dec 1941? There was a period in April 41 when it looked critical, but sinkings then started to decline ( not least because of the Enigma penetration). By the end of 1941, they were well down. As an aside, the UK cut its need for imports by about half during the war, thus further relieving the strain on convoys to prevent surrender. You have to remember the surrender could only be brought about by lack of food etc. In the event of the Uboat war going critical (really critical, not just close), the shipping priorities would have changed, and the UK offensive potential would have been reduced - less bombing of Germany, worse position in North Africa (now there's an interesting 'what if'!)

The U Boat war WAS scary, and could have gone the other way. But so could the BoB, the Bismark, and lots of other events in the war.

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Post #: 163
- 7/27/2003 5:03:17 PM   
HMSWarspite

 

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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Von Rom
[B]There seems to be some misunderstanding. Donitz had wanted a 300 U-boat fleet, but had planned to have it by 1942, the year Hitler had promised his High Command that war would be started. Hitler jumped the gun.

And if Hitler had waited until 1942, Germany would have been even stronger (with a U-boat fleet 5 times the size of the one it had in 1939), while the USA, in all probabilty, would have remained isolationist and ill prepared. [/B][/QUOTE]

Interesting. So FDR would have stood by whilst Germany developed a navy capable of real impact in the North Atlantic (both surface ships and subs)? One theory....

[QUOTE][B]As things stand, I see no reason why Germany could not have started the war with about 120 U-boats (or twice what it started with), given the available capacity it had. It did build 36 U-boats in 1936.[/B][/QUOTE]

I have already granted that c 100 subs might be achievable (but most are still coastal boats)

[QUOTE][B]The U-boat could not have won the war all by itself. However, if used in larger numbers, with a better strategy in mind, and in concert with all the other tools Germany had, then the situation would have been bleak indeed.[/B][/QUOTE]

Agreed, this is what I ahve been saying, but with the emphesis on strategy and science, rather than just numbers.

[QUOTE][B]Operation Drumbeat irrelevant? A dozen U-boats sink 585 ships. The single most successful U-boat operation of the war. Irrelevant?

Cheers! [/B][/QUOTE]

You mis-understand me. I mean Strategically irrelevant, as in 'had no effect on the outcome'. Tactically, is was a huge success - no doubt there. However, I maintain that on balance, the Germans might have been better without it. Apart from the loss of US lives, morale, and the actual ships/cargo, how did any of it effect the UK? I am not aware that it effected UK at all - in fact it ensured that UK bound convoys had a few less subs to deal with. The US coastal shipping routes were not the cjoke point, and not enough ships were lost to win by the pure 'never mind where you sink them, just sink them faster than built' arguement.

A fun debate....but why oh why not just use the ones Germany had better...?

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Post #: 164
- 7/27/2003 9:47:02 PM   
Von Rom


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Nikademus
[B]Churchill was also a passionate man who once latched onto an idea would not let go of it like a German Shepard that has it's teeth sunk into a meety bone. No dig against the man. But all i'm saying is that just because he "says" his nitemare and fear was the U-boat doesn't mean it "was" one in reality or for every one else. Remember at that time he was strongly campaigning to get the Americans to do what he wanted to most of his abilities. If you want someone to come to your way of thinking, you might be tempted to overinflate or overemphasis in order to get your point across.

Churchill did not have all the facts at the time nor all the data so as such I have no doubt that while he did fear the Uboat, neither does that make that fear a reality nor does that mean his resolve would waver

I disagree too that the Uboat was a terror weapon. Uh uh. It was a means envisioned by Doneitz to knock a maritime empire out of a war with germany and to prevent others from bringing war to Europe under German control. In that function it failed.

As for dead soldiers....again this is a misconception. You said you've read Blair....yet you are ignoring a very salient point. The US suffered *NO* major troop convoy casualties caused by Uboats. The oft malinged Admiral King made a hard choice to use his ASW assets to protect the US troop convoys vs the merchants beset by Drumbeat. One can argue that decision but the point here is that there was no long list of "casualties" for the US leaders to haw and hem about.

Britian did suffer some casualties because they saw things differently and gave equal measure to both merchant and troop convoys so they did suffer losses. They did not waver nor were these losses crippling.

Increase the Uboats and yes you increase their potential, but i do not believe anything happens in a vaccum despite arguments to the contrary. 300 Uboats is a major change and despite problems in finance, i do not doubt that the UK and US would have responded in some measure to this. Maybe you'll increase the total loss from 1% to 10%......but would it be decisive? Uboats were far more of a "terror" during WWI and they still failed.

No.....300 uboats is no easy answer. [/B][/QUOTE]

The U-boat was a great threat in WWII, especially to Britain during the years from 1939 to 1942.

Britain's imports - upon which it heavily relied - were halved during the war by the U-Boat threat, leading to enforced rationing and the introduction of the victory gardens.

Had Germany placed greater emphasis in more U-boats, history might have taken a different turn.

The tactics worked. The real problem was that Hitler did not build enough U-boats. Usually, only six U-boats were at sea at any one time in the early years.


This is from the BBC's History of WWII:


Winston Churchill once wrote that "The only thing that ever really frightened me during the war was the U-boat peril". In saying this, he correctly identified the importance of the threat posed during World War Two by German submarines (the 'Unterseeboot') to the Atlantic lifeline. This lifeline was Britain's 'centre of gravity' - the loss of which would probably have led to wholesale defeat in the war.

If Germany had prevented merchant ships from carrying food, raw materials, troops and their equipment from North America to Britain, the outcome of World War Two could have been radically different. Britain might have been starved into submission, and her armies would not have been equipped with American-built tanks and vehicles.

Moreover, if the Allies had not been able to move ships about the North Atlantic, it would have been impossible to project British and American land forces ashore in the Mediterranean theatres or on D-Day. Germany's best hope of defeating Britain lay in winning what Churchill christened the 'Battle of the Atlantic'.

Germany had waged a similar campaign in World War One, and in 1917 had come close to defeating Britain. But in spite of this experience neither side was well prepared in 1939. Germany had underestimated the impact of U-boats, and was fighting with only 46 operational vessels, using mostly surface vessels - rather than submarines - to prowl the Atlantic. However, on the day Britain declared war on Germany, 3rd September 1939, the British liner Athenia was torpedoed by a U-boat. This marked the beginning of the second Battle of the Atlantic.

In the early stages of World War Two, the Royal Navy placed much faith in ASDIC (an early form of sonar) to detect submerged U-boats. The British were largely able to master the surface threat posed by Germany, sinking the pocket battleship Graf Spee in December 1939 and the battleship Bismarck in 1941, but from the summer of 1940 the U-boat menace grew. This was in part because the conquest by Germany of Norway and France gave the Germans forward bases, which increased the range of the U-boats and also allowed Focke-Wulf FW200 'Kondor' long-range aircraft to patrol over the Atlantic, carrying out reconnaissance for the U-boats and attacking Allied shipping.

The British were consequently forced to divert their own shipping away from vulnerable UK ports, and were faced with the need to provide convoys with naval escorts for greater stretches of the journey to North America. The Royal Navy was critically short of escort vessels, although this problem was eased somewhat by the arrival of 50 old American destroyers that President Roosevelt gave in return for bases in British territory in the West Indies.

U-boats, supplemented by mines, aircraft and surface ships, succeeded in sinking three million tons of Allied shipping between the fall of France in June 1940 and the end of the year. Admiral Dönitz, the commander of the U-boat arm, introduced the 'wolfpack' tactic at the end of 1940, whereby a group of submarines would surface and attack at night, thus greatly reducing the effectiveness of ASDIC. Not surprisingly, the German submariners called this phase of the war the 'happy time'. This remorseless attrition of merchant shipping was a far greater threat to Britain's survival than the remote possibility of the Kriegsmarine landing German troops on the English coast. . .

The Battle of the Atlantic was one of the longest campaigns of the Second World War, and it was proportionally among the most costly. Between 75,000 and 85,000 Allied seamen were killed. About 28,000 out of 41,000 U-boat crew were killed during World War Two, some two-thirds, during the Battle of the Atlantic. The stakes could not have been higher. If the U-boats had prevailed, the Western Allies could not have been successful in the war against Germany.

by
Dr Gary Sheffield is Senior Lecturer in the War Studies Group at King’s College London, and Land Warfare Historian at the Joint Services Command and Staff College, Shrivenham.


From the Daily Times:


The British almost lost the war though by ignoring the U-boat peril, a mistake they also made in World War I. The German U-boat (submarine) threat grew from a single sub in 1935 to 57 by the time the war began.

Britain is an island nation that needs constant resupply of goods, raw materials, and armaments or it could be quickly starved into surrender. With two-thirds of her raw material and half her food imported from abroad, safe shipping was essential. Britain needed at least 1 million tons of imported shipping each month merely to subsist. However, the prewar Admiralty evaluated the U-boat threat as negligible.

On Sept. 3 , 1939, a German sub sank the British passenger liner Athenia with 1,103 aboard, including 300 Americans. A total of 112 passengers, including 28 Americans, went down with the ship. Only 14 days later another sub sank a 22,500-ton British aircraft carrier with the loss of 519 men, half of the crew.

Thus began the 72-month Battle of the Atlantic, the longest and deadliest sea battle in history. In lives there was a loss of 45,000 British, American and Allied sailors, merchant seamen, passengers and soldiers who went down with ships. And 15 million tons of shipping was sent to the bottom of the sea as well.

In the first nine months, 701 ships and 2.3 million tons of cargo were sunk by subs. By the end of the first year with only six U-boats at sea at any one time, more than 1,000 ships, a total of 4 million tons, an incredible 25 percent of the entire British fleet, had been sunk.

The fall of France on June 21, 1940, opened the French coast up for construction of five German submarine bases that were 450 miles closer to the sub targets in the Atlantic Ocean, saving both fuel and time for the Germans.

Jerome M. O'Connor in his article on the Lair of the Wolf Pack in World War II magazine details how Lorient, established in the 17th century and later developed as a naval base by Napoleon, apparently became the lead base, the others being Brest, St. Nazaire, La Pallice, and Bordeaux. All were built to last a 1,000 years, included deluxe living quarters as well as the submarine ``pens'' where they could be repaired and kept until they went to sea.

Virtually bomb-proof, the top layer of the roof over the structures was 25-foot thick of steel reinforced concrete which contained bomb traps. Almost undamaged, they still stand today.

By late June 1940, Britain was being bled white by the sea blockade and Adolf Hitler had finally given approval for a major increase in U-boat construction to 30 per month. German armies were triumphant everywhere. Poland, Holland, Norway, Belgium, Luxembourg and Denmark had been secured even before the fall of France. The entire 338,000-man British Expeditionary Force had been evacuated from Dunkirk with little of their equipment. Britain stood alone.

The U.S. with an Army ranked 18th in the world, just behind Holland's in 1940, was scornfully dismissed as a threat by the Nazi high command.

by
Dean Stone is editor of The Daily Times

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Post #: 165
Re: Re: Re: Re: 300 U boats - 7/27/2003 10:01:18 PM   
Ron Saueracker


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by TIMJOT
[B]I dont have any hard numbers, but I think that its not unrealistic that 300 U-boats were probably possible at the expence of the 2 BBs.

Probably not in secret though, but its not far fetched that production could have been partially hidden. The Kriegsmarine also had the luxury of starting pretty much from scatch and thus had much more flexibility on production decisions. The Royal Navy on the other hand enjoyed no such luxury and had a vast array of responsibilities to condsider when making production decisions.

To state that Britain could have simply matched any German increase Uboat production with correspondingly increased ASW production doesnt properly take into account the Royal Navy's limitations. [/B][/QUOTE]

Why would things be any different over twenty years? The British shipbuilding industry outbuilt the German prior to and during WW1, why would one assume this was an impossibility in the 1930"s? It is not like Germany was unaffected by the Depression. What limitations on behalf of the RN are we talking about?

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Post #: 166
Editor - 7/27/2003 10:11:41 PM   
mogami


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Sonny
[B]If you edit though you won't be able to play PBEM and will have to fight against the AI.:) [/B][/QUOTE]

Hi, Incorrect. If you edit you need to send the files to your opponent before starting a PBEM game.

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Post #: 167
- 7/27/2003 10:13:39 PM   
Von Rom


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by HMSWarspite
[B]Interesting. So FDR would have stood by whilst Germany developed a navy capable of real impact in the North Atlantic (both surface ships and subs)? One theory....[/B][/QUOTE]

USA

While a world war raged for almost 3 years, from 1939 to Dec of 1941; while ALL of western Europe had been conquered; while Britain fought for its life; and while the USSR was almost brought to its knees; the USA had remained isolationist, and had a military that ranked 18th in the world, behind Holland.

Do you really think this would have improved if there were 3 years of peace?

Britain

As for British preparations to deal with the U-boat threat, its navy contained the following:

The outbreak of war found the Royal Navy with 176 destroyers, but of these over 60 dated from World War I. In the early summer of 1940, with the loss of French naval support and Germany's acquisition of France's Atlantic naval bases for her U-boats, Britain was desperately short of escort vessels, with only 74 destroyers available for all needs.

This does not take into account its barely adequate airforce, etc.

Axis Mistakes

Even with all these inadequacies, there were three things the Axis handed to the Allies:

1) The Allies were given the time to actually buid-up their land and naval forces;

2) The Axis jumped the gun in starting the war (Hitler promised his generals the war would start in 1942+); and

3) The failure of the Axis in not following through with better actions (building more U-boats; allowing the Allies to escape from Dunkirk, etc).

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Post #: 168
- 7/27/2003 10:45:47 PM   
Ron Saueracker


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Von Rom
[B]While a world war raged for almost 3 years, from 1939 to Dec of 1941; while ALL of western Europe had been conquered; while Britain fought for its life; and while the USSR was almost brought to its knees; the USA had remained isolationist, and had a military that ranked 18th in the world, behind Holland.

Do you really think this would have improved if there was 3 years of peace?

As for British preparations to deal with the U-boat threat, its navy contained the following:

The outbreak of war found the Royal Navy with 176 destroyers, but of these over 60 dated from World War I. In the early summer of 1940, with the loss of French naval support and Germany's acquisition of France's Atlantic naval bases for her U-boats, Britain was desperately short of escort vessels, with only 74 destroyers available for all needs.

This does not take into account its barely adequate airforce, etc.

Even with all these inadequacies, there were three things the Axis handed to the Allies:

1) The Allies were given the time to actually buid-up their land and naval forces;

2) The Axis jumping the gun in starting the war (Hitler promised his generals the war would start in 1942+); and

3) The failure of the Axis in not following through with better actions (building more U-boats; allowing the Allies to escape from Dunkirk, etc). [/B][/QUOTE]

We are getting nowhere here, too many variables which people ignore when making their point. Roosevelt did everything but declare war. What would make one think he would have done nothing if peace still existed? The building programs were underway in 1939, before the war. Why? A good reason would be Germany's aggressive political stance and the well known military build up.

And what would have kept Japan from attacking PH when she did. Not a whole lot considering the political stance the US had with it. Would Germany declare war then? Who knows? Good basis for some historical fiction novels, though!:D

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Post #: 169
- 7/27/2003 11:09:32 PM   
Von Rom


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Ron Saueracker
[B]We are getting nowhere here. . .[/B][/QUOTE]

You're absolutely right :)

Occassionally I enjoy spinning a wheel round and round . . .

But now I'm off to other things.

Cheers!

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Post #: 170
- 7/27/2003 11:22:43 PM   
HMSWarspite

 

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Interesting debate though!

If I conceed that I am completely wrong on numbers, and Germany could build 300 U Boats prior to 1939, please will someone explain why no one wants to increase the effectiveness of the U Boats by better U Boat staff, scientific research, less faith in Enigma and so on?


Please?



Pretty Please?



Anyone? (sound of echoing cry followed by splash...)

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Post #: 171
- 7/27/2003 11:59:59 PM   
Von Rom


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by HMSWarspite
[B]Interesting debate though!

If I conceed that I am completely wrong on numbers, and Germany could build 300 U Boats prior to 1939, please will someone explain why no one wants to increase the effectiveness of the U Boats by better U Boat staff, scientific research, less faith in Enigma and so on?
[/B][/QUOTE]

OK, I'll bite. Just a couple comments:

1) No one said 300 U-boats could be built by 1939. Donitz wanted 300 by 1942. However, Germany could have doubled the number to 120-130 (or higher) by 1939 if given higher priority.

2) Better staff, etc: Best to ask Hitler himself, who had little use for naval matters, until it was too late.

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Post #: 172
- 7/28/2003 12:21:36 AM   
Von Rom


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Finally, some comments on Clay Blair's Books, since so much has been said about them.


1) He claims that the U-boat menace was over-rated; its claimed kills were exaggerated and its crews were poorly trained and poorly led; and that even the U-boats themselves were badly designed and ill-equipped for ocean warfare.

This would sure come as a surprise to Donitz and the U-boat crews (who considered themselves to be the elite - and never wanted for volunteers). . .

2) Blair's main argument is the U-boats never came close to strangling Britain. Blair reinforces this contention throughout the text by judicious use of statistics, and arrives at the conclusion that during the period September 1942 to May 1945 over 99 per cent of Allied shipping crossing the Atlantic in either direction arrived safely. It is apparent from this that the British-US Atlantic link was never truly threatened.

However, the period between 1939-1942 was a terrible time for Britain. In the first nine months, 701 ships and 2.3 million tons of cargo were sunk by subs. By the end of the first year with only six U-boats at sea at any one time, more than 1,000 ships, a total of 4 million tons, an incredible 25 percent of the entire British fleet, had been sunk.

If more U-boats had been given priority in this area, the results for Britain may have been very different.

Blair also fails to explain the contrary belief held at the time. British and US concerns about the Battle of the Atlantic were most clearly expressed during the Casablanca Conference in January 1943, at which the defeat of the U-boats at sea and in port through the strategic bombing campaign, and the construction of more merchant ships, were matters given priority.

Blair addresses only briefly the role of U-boats as a "force in being" that diverted the British and US war effort from other objectives. For example, he describes the failure of the Eighth Air Force (USAAF) raids on the U-boat pens at Lorient, St Nazaire, La Pallice and Brest in the second half of 1942, but offers no explanation as to why these raids continued despite their evident lack of success.


3) The second half of Blair's book is a hopeless attempt to defend the United States navy and the mess it made at the beginning of its war against the U-boats.

Mistakes at the highest levels left merchant ships to sail unescorted off the East Coast while U-boats prowled almost unmolested.

Blair spends 269 pages trying to explain why it took eight months for the U.S. to organize convoys and protect its merchant ships. He goes to great lengths to blame everyone but the navy.

4) The following comments are from a review by Ian Campbell, MA (History), University of Tasmania at Launceston:

Blair's second of two comprehensive volumes of operational history complete both a patrol-by-patrol account of U-boat operations in World War II, and his attempt to demolish the "myths" of the Battle of the Atlantic. These "myths" are chiefly that the Battle of the Atlantic could never have been won by Dönitz' U-boats, and that the shipping situation was never as bad as the Allies presented it to be; that, in Blair's words, "it was a classic case of threat-inflation."

While his debunking approach and laborious attention to detail are commendable, Blair's stance as the first author to do so is both inaccurate, as many authors have achieved the same result in fewer pages (for example, Terraine's Business In Great Waters and Tarrant's The U-boat Offensive 1914-45), and insulting to half a century's effort by a very large number of public, official, professional, and amateur historians.

Blair makes the critical error of presenting wartime perception as if it were postwar historical analysis. He appears to feel no fellowship to his numerous predecessors, nor give them any recognition. As a former submariner who never served in the Atlantic, Blair feels qualified to tell this tale, but has only scorn for the hundreds who went before him. Only he, in his opinion, has got it right. Blair has therefore done no more than debunk works which may or may not be well-known to the public, and whose subjects had in any case already been examined by earlier authors.

Michael Gannon's Black May contains several very sharp, pertinent and perceptive criticisms of Blair's first volume. For example, on Blair's defense of King: King held that US army convoys were more important than UK trade ones and held his escorts to protect them, leaving shipping unescorted during Operation Paukenschlag. Blair did not see that ASW was the most important concern on the East Coast from January to June, 1942. Contrary to his assertion, the high shipping losses on the coast were not "offset by the USN success in escorting US troops to Europe." To succeed at one task does not make up for failing in another. King was not forced to choose between supporting USN operations and UK trade convoys: he could have done both - as he did after June 1942, when made to institute convoying.

Blair has thus done little more than trot out the existing American myths of the Battle: that it was not serious, that it was not vital; that it has been blown out of all proportion; and also that US contributions in other areas (i.e., conventional forces in the Atlantic troop convoys) were more valuable than UK trade convoys. Blair fails to recognize that the mainstream American viewpoint is only one among many. To say one is right and the other a myth is to distort the entire campaign.

Blair seems to consider everything about the battle wrong, unless he discovered or agreed with it. He furthermore seems to regard the Battle of the Atlantic as a subject which is well-known and thus, through its myths, widely misperceived. In actual fact it is very debatable whether most Europeans and North Americans are much aware of it at all. Only in the last decade has the Battle begun to move towards its deserved place in the annals of naval history.

In sum, Blair has done nothing in his 1400 pages that others did not do before, and more succinctly. By being exhaustive, he has countered his own argument that the battle was not important: he has blown it out of all proportion by detailing every operation and how much it did not achieve.

5) The following are extracts of a review in The Northern Mariner, vol. 8, no. 1:

[Blair's book] aims at both a scholarly and a popular audience and, as a result, shares many of its virtues and faults. It is based on an extraordinary amount of research and contains a thorough bibliography of primary and secondary sources but does not have footnotes. As with the first volume, the level of detail is overwhelming; virtually every U-boat patrol is described in depth. The narrative frequently deteriorates into a repetitive recounting of seemingly indistinguishable actions between German U-boats and Allied escorts and merchant ships. When Blair pauses to provide analysis or context, he is generally insightful especially on the German side of the campaign.

His underlying thesis is that German U-boats never came close to severing the vital Atlantic lifeline between North America and Great Britain. In his view, the tonnage war against Allied merchant ships was a colossal failure and naval historians have inflated the threat posed by the U-boat fleet. Blair marshals an impressive array of statistics to show that most of the merchant ships in convoy reached their destinations safely even in the worst months of the Atlantic war and that Allied shipbuilding made good the losses. But historians have never doubted the numbers. It is difficult ultimately to accept Blair's claim that the loss of 596 merchant ships of 3.5 million tons to enemy action between September 1942 and March 1943 was not a crisis simply because most ships in convoy arrived safely and Allied shipbuilding replaced those lost. In order to win the tonnage war, the Allies had to divert an extraordinary amount of resources away from the production of tanks, landing craft, aircraft and other armaments necessary for the invasion of Europe toward the production of merchant ships and escorts. Indeed, the argument that the tonnage war was a misguided strategy from the outset pre-supposes both the entry of the United States into the war and the presence of a viable alternative to it for Germany. . .

He is less convincing when he argues that the Tenth Fleet-created by the US Navy in May 1943 to co-ordinate its anti-submarine forces--could not have been created earlier because the United States lacked the tools to do the job. His US Navy bias-so prevalent in the first volume-is on display here but generally is much more restrained in this book. Still, he is at pains to paint all German defeats or setbacks as "humiliating" failures with little regard for the difficulties faced by U-boat Command or the imbalance of resources between the combatants.

Blair devotes considerable attention to the oft-neglected period that followed the decisive defeat of the wolf packs in the spring and summer of 1943. He argues that historians again have overstated the threat posed by the snorkel-equipped U-boats in the last year of the war, emphasizing that German submariners hated the new device, used it for only a few hours a day to charge the batteries, and that it was vulnerable to the latest Allied radar. From his account of the actions between U-boats and Allied air and surface escorts during this period, however, it is clear that snorkels provided a large degree of protection from air attack and radar was not very effective at detecting them. Some U-boats began to achieve modest successes for the first time in many months. Considering these factors, his contention that the snorkel was an "abject failure" seems excessive.

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Post #: 173
- 7/28/2003 1:05:55 AM   
Nikademus


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Von Rom
[B]Finally, some comments on Clay Blair's Books, since so much has been said about them.


1) He is a revisionist author, reveals an evident bias in his work, and calls this the first authoritative and correct history of submarine war in the Atlantic. Yet, he provides no footnotes.



You know, i thought that too at first read. I once made a joke over on Warships1 that i'd never seen such a concentration of negative adjetives regarding the principle German U-boat types in any source book read. However i reserved judgement until i had read his book on the US sub campaign for WWII. I found that, if anything he was even harder on his own service than he was on the Uboats. Bias? No.....i dont agree. As for no footnotes??? Blair's mentions his source material and provides links. His appendixes contain much releveant data. I would like to see yours please.

quote:


2) He claims that the U-boat menace was over-rated; its claimed kills were exaggerated and its crews were poorly trained and poorly led; and that even the U-boats themselves were badly designed and ill-equipped for ocean warfare. This would sure come as a surprise to Donitz and the U-boat crews. . .


In terms of the kind of war they were asked to fight, Blair makes a valid point that the submarines used, particularily in fighting an oceanic war were inadequate for the job. Incremental improvements in the VII and IX did not keep pace with Allied developmenets and along with increasing #'s increased the casualty rate and lowered the life expectancy of Uboat crews. Morale never wavered in the Uboats, but training did vary from boat to boat and from period to period. You are also completely ignoring the serious handicaps and challeges that faced Type IX's and especially Type VII's in being asked to roam the US east coast and the limitations imposed, except to say, "these handful of boats did ALL THIS" Well yes, we're aware of DRUMBEAT's results and also aware of the circumstances that allowed it too happen.

quote:



3) Blair's main argument is the U-boats never came close to strangling Britain. Blair reinforces this contention throughout the text by judicious use of statistics, and arrives at the conclusion that during the period September 1942 to May 1945 over 99 per cent of Allied shipping crossing the Atlantic in either direction arrived safely. It is apparent from this that the British-US Atlantic link was never truly threatened.

However, the period between 1939-1942 was a terrible time for Britain, in which a handful of U-boats sank 25% of all its shipping. In just nine months in 1940, 1,100 ships were sent to the bottom. If more U-boats had been given priority in this area, the results may have been very different.



Data please.

quote:


Blair also fails to explain the contrary belief held at the time. British and US concerns about the Battle of the Atlantic were most clearly expressed during the Casablanca Conference in January 1943, at which the defeat of the U-boats at sea and in port through the strategic bombing campaign, and the construction of more merchant ships, were matters given priority.


What does this prove? It proves that the Allies took the Uboat seriously and wanted to ensure that it did not become a threat. It in no way proves that the Uboats came close to inflicting the "crippling blow" you keep mentioning.
quote:



Blair addresses only briefly the role of U-boats as a "force in being" that diverted the British and US war effort from other objectives. For example, he describes the failure of the Eighth Air Force (USAAF) raids on the U-boat pens at Lorient, St Nazaire, La Pallice and Brest in the second half of 1942, but offers no explanation as to why these raids continued despite their evident lack of success.


No offense, but this is a sidetrack. Uboats as a "force in being" is a completely different subject and one i might add even less relevent to what Doneitz's goals were . The Germans felt the same way in WWI too.....the famous, "If they try to come {the americans] we will sink them" statement. In both wars it failed to deter the coming of the troops nor did it cause any serious casualites.

Are the genesis and motivation of the Uboat pen raids really that much a mystery to you? We have churchill, who is obsessed about the potential threat of uboats and looking for a way to nip them in the bud (their home base) Airpower at the time is seen as the great cost effective shortcut to ending a world war. Is it suprising they would attempt it? I would have bereft of all this hindsight argument.

quote:


4) The second half of Blair's book is a hopeless attempt to defend the United States navy and the mess it made at the beginning of its war against the U-boats.

Mistakes at the highest levels left merchant ships to sail unescorted off the East Coast while U-boats prowled almost unmolested.

Blair spends 269 pages trying to explain why it took eight months for the U.S. to organize convoys and protect its merchant ships. He goes to great lengths to blame everyone but the navy.


You have a point here. :) Again, i felt much the same after the first read. He was particularily harsh on Roosevelt and went to great lengths to exonerate King. Blair's book basically created two factions over at Warships1. Faction1 tended to run away totally with what I felt at least was what Blair was truely trying to say and made gradiose statements to the order that 'the uboats were never anything to be concerned about.....and the Allies could do whatever they wanted whenever they wanted blah blah blah.

Faction 2 was what i'd call the "established" viewpoint, such as yours that felt Blair was a revisionist troublemaker toning down the grave threat of the Uboats and that, like WWI the boats came within a hair's breadth of winning things.

I'd like to think i fall in the middle. Blair's point is not to say that the Uboats were "no threat" or that they did not cause grave damage at times. His point, was that at no time did the Uboats come close to acheiving their ultimate strategic goal, that at no time were any of the Allied nations "brought to the brink" as you've implied with your "handful" of uboats descriptions. You may think he's a revisionist but he backs up what he says with a mound of data. He does address the British "perception" of their import situation and it's reality and backs it up with data. I think his argument has merit as a result

quote:



5) The following comments are from a review by Ian Campbell, MA (History), University of Tasmania at Launceston:



Yes yes, i've read these reviews. Does it suprise me that Blair's book, which 'does' often come on with the subtlty of a freight train would invite a serious push-back from naval reviewers and authors? You should see the reaction over at Uboat.net ;)

Guess it comes down to what one is willing to believe. Some of what you've transcribed here i would agree with though other stuff befuddles me such as the argument that 3.1 million tons sunk "has" to count for something [irregardless] of the fact that most of the convoy ships made it to their destinations. huh??!!
The commentary regarding Blair's background is completely irrelevent not to metion a cheap shot attempt. Are we to infer that only someone who served on a submarine in the Atlantic is in a position to speak authoratively on the subject?

For one thing Blair acknowledges the impact of the DRUMBEAT losses. He just states, if coldly, that the losses were not critical to the allied effort as a whole.

As for the Snorkel. I suppose if someone can prove that the device would truely have been a wonder weapon i'd be willing to listen. Maybe Blair does downplay it's relevance, as mentioned, his writing style does often come off as harsh and even "biased" but after reading his book on the US silent service i found that thats just how he writes and he pulls no punches regardless of the subject or navy. Given the snorkels cons vs it's pros I do find it hard to see where this one device would have greatly altered the technological balance.

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Post #: 174
- 7/28/2003 1:12:46 AM   
Nikademus


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Von Rom
[B]OK, I'll bite. Just a couple comments:

1) No one said 300 U-boats could be built by 1939. Donitz wanted 300 by 1942. However, Germany could have doubled the number to 120-130 (or higher) by 1939 if given higher priority.

2) Better staff, etc: Best to ask Hitler himself, who had little use for naval matters, until it was too late. [/B][/QUOTE]

And what would these 120 boats have acomplished in the long term?

Ask Hitler? This sounds alot like "ask Roosevelt"

Are you saying this was all Hitler's fault? Well thats often an easy out. Most german generals and officers would agree with that sentiment. :) Doenitz made plenty of his own mistakes and mis-assumptions. It also smacks of pure hindsight. Hitler's goal was to make Germany a world power. A world power needs a world class navy. You dont get that by building a sub fleet to the exclusion of all else. Noone knew at the time of all the planning, even Hitler i'm sure, that the war would begin in Sept of 39.

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Post #: 175
- 7/28/2003 1:19:54 AM   
Nikademus


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btw.....can we now consider this thread "officially" hijacked? :D

maybe Matrix needs to consider a Uboat wargame :eek:

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Post #: 176
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 300 U boats - 7/28/2003 1:38:15 AM   
TIMJOT

 

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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Ron Saueracker
[B]Why would things be any different over twenty years? The British shipbuilding industry outbuilt the German prior to and during WW1, why would one assume this was an impossibility in the 1930"s? It is not like Germany was unaffected by the Depression. What limitations on behalf of the RN are we talking about? [/B][/QUOTE]

Warspite

I think you misunderstood or I just wasnt clear ( most likely ;) ). I wasnt saying that Britain couldnt outbuild Germany in naval construction. Unlike A/C and AFV, shipbuilding was the one industry Britain could outdue Germany. The limitations were that the RN was a fleet in being with worldwide responsibilities. They had a finite ship building capacity. Unlike Germany they couldnt simply shift over that capacity to "significantly" increase ASW production in lieu of all other naval construction. They couldnt relinquish BB, CV, CA construction to the USN, IJN, Supermarina and remain a world naval power.

Whereas Germany could build 300 uboats instead of the Sharnhorst, Genuisenau, Bismark and Tirpitz. Britain could not cancell the KGIV's and Indomitables ect... in order to build more DDs, DEs and Corvettes. I am not saying that Britain couldnt have increase ASW at all just that it did not have the capacity to match 300 Uboats and maintain the status quo of their other fleet build programs.


Regards

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Post #: 177
- 7/28/2003 2:04:58 AM   
Mr.Frag


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[QUOTE]maybe Matrix needs to consider a Uboat wargame[/QUOTE]

Whoot! WitA! Get to work! :D

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Post #: 178
- 7/28/2003 3:18:02 AM   
pasternakski


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Mr.Frag
[B]Whoot! WitA! Get to work! :D [/B][/QUOTE]

Add the surface raiders and I'm down for this one, Mr. Frag.

_____________________________

Put my faith in the people
And the people let me down.
So, I turned the other way,
And I carry on anyhow.

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Post #: 179
- 7/28/2003 6:40:30 AM   
Von Rom


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[QUOTE]And what would these 120 boats have acomplished in the long term?[/QUOTE]

Is it really necessary to go over the same ground again and again?

From 1939 to 1942, was when the U-boat presented itself as the greatest threat. The US entry into the war pretty much sealed the Axis fate. Yamamoto understood this.

If just 65 U-boats in 1939 could cause so much destruction to Britain (25% of all Britain's commerce was sunk in 1940 alone), then I think, with a little imagination, we can rightly assume the terrible damage that 120 U-boats (or more) could cause to Britain, if they were given a greater priority by Hitler. And if anyone thinks that 50% shipping losses would not be a disaster. . .

It was Raeder who lobbied Hitler to place his faith in a surface fleet, rather than subs. That this was a BIG mistake is without doubt.

Also, remember that at the same time, Germany was bombing Britain every day through Sept/Oct. 1940.

So Mr. Londoner would be cowering in bomb shelters, while reading in the newspaper about the dozens of ships being sunk every week.

Today, we have hindsight and know how everything ended. But at the time Britain was all alone fighting Germany, which was the master of Europe.


[QUOTE]Blair's mentions his source material and provides links. His appendixes contain much releveant data. I would like to see yours please.[/QUOTE]

I am not claiming to have written the definitive book on the U-boat war, as he has done. He could at least provide footnotes so that we can check his sources and information.

[QUOTE]In terms of the kind of war they were asked to fight, Blair makes a valid point that the submarines used, particularily in fighting an oceanic war were inadequate for the job. Incremental improvements in the VII and IX did not keep pace with Allied developmenets and along with increasing #'s increased the casualty rate and lowered the life expectancy of Uboat crews. Morale never wavered in the Uboats, but training did vary from boat to boat and from period to period. You are also completely ignoring the serious handicaps and challeges that faced Type IX's and especially Type VII's in being asked to roam the US east coast and the limitations imposed, except to say, "these handful of boats did ALL THIS" Well yes, we're aware of DRUMBEAT's results and also aware of the circumstances that allowed it too happen. [/QUOTE]

Every weapon of war has short-comings. Look at the Sherman. But the Americans worked with it to achieve results, as did the Germans with the U-boat.

[QUOTE]Data please.[/QUOTE]

I could give lots of data. Which I have already done in previous posts. But it seems the discussion keeps going round and round. . .

[QUOTE]Faction 2 was what i'd call the "established" viewpoint, such as yours that felt Blair was a revisionist troublemaker toning down the grave threat of the Uboats and that, like WWI the boats came within a hair's breadth of winning things.[/QUOTE]

I really do not prefer to have labels placed on me.

From 1939 to 1942, before America's entry, there was a very real threat to Britain's existence: from the air (Battle of Britain); and from the sea (Battle of the Atlantic). This is all documented fact and there is no need to re-hash every detail. If in doubt, consult some good histories on the Battle of Britain and Battle of the Atlantic for full details.

Again, I do not intend to re-hash everything that has already been stated. Britain was in peril; not America.

That Britain survived is due to Hitler's over-sights; etc, etc, etc.

Poor, poor Germany. If we are to believe what many revisionist historians have written, it is a wonder that the German soldier and sailor were even able to get out of bed. LOL

Anyway, we are beating a dead horse.

Signing off. . .

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