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Turn 3 Start - 6/25/2020 1:22:39 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		South: Small (late) super lvov pocket holds with the nice units. Full retreat mode from Russia. This should allow us to claim huge swathes of land. Corridor for infantry is roughly open. Easy recon targets in blue.




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Turn 3 End - 6/27/2020 7:59:07 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		North: a daring thrust, while keeping infantry lines open in the rear. Should have routed the divisions near Pskov but got greedy. The spearhead mot unit is under PzG4 HQ, allowing it 30-50 MP next turn to cause havoc. Both motorized are unmovable this turn and force either a retreat to make new lines (fine) or severe hugging (better, as this prevents fort buildup).




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Post #: 32
RE: Turn 3 End - 6/27/2020 8:02:11 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Center uneventful.

South: large amount of auto converted territory gained. Kirovograd is poked out and loses the industry there, while Krivoi Rog is ZOCd from removing industry cheaply.
Circled panzers still will have 100% fuel next turn, as they were the ones railed in on turn 2 to the Rumanian border. Infantry corridor kept open as well.
Note the teal 29-3 panzer which was placed to prevent circled panzers from getting isolated by cav (though the southern front cavalry have high initial morale so this may still happen).




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Post #: 33
Turn 4 Start - 7/24/2020 2:21:19 AM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Turn 4: tragedy on the Luga!
Hoepner's spearhead is suddenly surrounded by the barbarians springing from the Teutoburg! A daring rescue mission will be attempted to stage a rescue. Either way, however, this extreme hugging has put off any semblance of a Soviet line. Even if the 14th motor sacrifices itself, an open channel forward will be had.




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< Message edited by eskuche -- 7/24/2020 2:22:59 AM >

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Post #: 34
RE: Turn 4 Start - 7/24/2020 2:23:35 AM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Center is quiet. A move up to the Dnepr with armor posturing for better fuel.




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Post #: 35
RE: Turn 4 Start - 7/24/2020 2:24:56 AM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		South: Opportunity abounds. Note the cut off armor has 30-50 MP due to being railed down to Rumania. Unfortunately, being isolated also means you fail your rolls so only LAH manages almost full MP. Initial light recon indicates the swampy Dnepr is entirely open to being taken advantage of...




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Post #: 36
RE: Turn 4 Start - 7/25/2020 1:02:00 AM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Manstein is court-marshalled for sleeping on the job after OKH authorized release of multiple armored assets (~15 AP for total reorg) to relieve the beleaguered motor formation. I Corps force marches (notice 71 CV infantry stack) to assist in the relief force. 3rd motorized will take a nice long vacation in the gulags. Center proceeds to landbridge with no action.

Edit: bomber command was also sleeping on the job at "300% ground support"



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< Message edited by eskuche -- 7/25/2020 1:06:07 AM >

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Post #: 37
RE: Turn 4 Start - 7/25/2020 1:05:05 AM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		In the South, unguarded swamps allow LAH and a few other units to cut off and surround the bulk of the lagging Southern front along with all of its command apparati. Krivoi Rog, Nikolaev, Odessa, and Kirovograd industry are all gone. The Crimea has a minor garrison at the Ishun crossing but will be threatened, as is the southern reach bystepping Zaporozhye.




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Post #: 38
Turn 5 - 8/27/2020 3:54:33 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Start of turn 5. Many Soviet forces have already conglomerated into single stacks along the north, so the only real option is to start the grind. This must mean forces are thinner elsewhere.




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Post #: 39
RE: Turn 5 - 8/27/2020 4:02:00 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Center similarly sees a wall of units. Velikie Luki seems unapproachable, while the land bridge looks invitingly for a funnel of soon-to-be-surrounded krauts. We instead force a retreat by breaching the Dnepr once at the MLR and one far below. Offscreen is a panzer division ready to exploit the denuded defensive lines (which explains why there are so many units elsewhere!). Note the river crossing battle: instant 2/3 CV cut from ~120 starting versus apparent CV of 8, though I had already expected reserve activations given fights in the north and the lack of stacking on the river front. The artillery ALONE brought enough power to dismantle the fort (need 79 engineer/artillery to destroy a 2.10 fort), decreasing the 41.1 initial CV to 13.2, which Kreysing would have won even if rolls did not go our way in either direction.




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Post #: 40
RE: Turn 5 - 8/27/2020 4:07:38 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		South: Crimean pocket holds, and the entire Dnepr is picketed with some obvious reserve divisions in the rear. Why bother taking three weeks to breach here? Again, the Soviets have concentrated their forces along specific axes of defense, so we simply go around. Wiking (between Krivoi Rog and Zaporozhye), was far out of rail range but thanks to temporary subordination to an army command with ample fuel dumps, is ready to penetrate with 45 MP. Likewise, some other armor formations cross the Dnepr south of Zaporozhye to mirror the center and force a retreat or reorganization of units.

Of course, this doesn't stop us from feigning a breach by breaking down two divisions in the forest outside Cherkassy.




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< Message edited by eskuche -- 8/27/2020 4:11:54 PM >

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Post #: 41
RE: Turn 5 - 8/27/2020 4:11:14 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Finally, the air war. Leningrad is completely saturated with all of the advanced airframes and thus I turn to the rest of the map for easy pickings. Even though hundreds of fighter bombers are covering this area, they are all weak biplanes and cannot offer enough defense to save almost 100 (!) precious Sb-2 recon frames. Heavy escorted bombing of fighter bases followed by lighter escort of bomber bases results in almost 1000 airframes destroyed this turn with no displacement moves.




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Post #: 42
RE: Turn 5 - 8/29/2020 11:12:29 PM   
EwaldvonKleist


Posts: 2038
Joined: 4/14/2016
From: Berlin, Germany
Status: offline 		Good job with the recon kills!

For my taste you sometimes throw the mobile units too far forward and/or don't have proper flank protection. You lost some units already and even a minor cut-off T4/T5 AGS means you take extra Panzer attrition and lose morale and have less MP for next turn. It can be tricky to take everything into account, but it is often useful to count MPs and try to design a ZOC screen around the supply lines that can't be penetrated by the Soviets under reasonable counterattack/MP allotment assumptions.

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Post #: 43
RE: Turn 5 - 8/30/2020 5:52:20 AM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Generally yes :) but there is a trick in AGS. If panzers are either > 26 hexes or isolated, then they draw 100% supply from their HQ instead of the fully penalized value if they were in range. That's why, for example, Wiking was able to have 45 MP without an HQBU all the way by Z-town.

Edit: the AGN motorized unit was perhaps a bit too ambitious. I think it paid dividends strategically, however.

< Message edited by eskuche -- 8/30/2020 6:51:46 PM >

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Post #: 44
Turn 6 - 8/30/2020 6:41:59 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		North. Could not close the minor 3 division pocket last turn and I pay for it now with the 4=9 stuck in the swamp. However, eventually bagging these 30,000 men and good divisions is probably worth the extra movement from 2-3 divisions needed. A small foray threatening a right hook from a panzer is thwarted but takes up 6-10 of his divisions to guard the river, so likely worth it. Name of the game is grinding with I corps. Note the extreme casualties when attacks are ordered such that retreat is across ZOC/swamp/rivers.

The penetration of a single motorized division achieves more than initially is obvious. Yes, Soviet has to reposition, but they also cannot build full forts immediately around the unit due to adjacency penalties. Scrambled rifle divisions will also be fairly fatigued, all leading up to greater chance of breakthrough, if not there, then at a surrounding hex, in future turns.





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Re: Turn 6 - 8/30/2020 6:48:29 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Center: Recon reveals positional retreat and yet again an invitingly open landbridge, which is unfortunately blocked by a 6=16 division that I am loathe to use armor for. Instead, they pause there, while the southern breach is fully taken advantage of. I misclicked the forward panzer or else Ordzhonikidzegrad industry would be gone as well. I am not making pockets but am forcing a very hasty rearrangement of defenses.

3 Notes.
Red arrow is a bad weakness in this very very loose pocket, even though there is nothing to the south. Red circles represent relative hardpoints out of reach of infantry that heavily dissuade armored penetration, which I heavily considered making a move for to attempt a pocket at the yellow circle. However, having only 2 armor units from the southern half to attempt this (and indeed only 7 divisions overall in this theatre), along with the unknown strength/reserve at the linchpin of the pocket made this a very risky prospect.




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Post #: 46
RE: Re: Turn 6 - 8/30/2020 6:49:58 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		For the south, I will post just the large start picture for now. Can we predict the ending?




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RE: Re: Turn 6 - 8/30/2020 7:12:05 PM   
SparkleyTits

 

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From: England
Status: offline 		There's multiple puncture points for a swathe of linked up pockets there
If you have good fuel levels across the board, you should be able to pick up something ranging from pretty decent, to mouth watering, unless Sillyflowers either mass retreats or does some godly work on defending from the variables

Good luck!

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Post #: 48
Re: Turn 6 - 9/27/2020 8:04:56 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		End result: we make a mad dash for Stalino. Two rail lines are cut, so even if we are completely surrounded, the 25-or-so industry in Stalino is destined for the gutters. Minor breaches are made at both Cherkassy and Zaporozhye, foretelling breakthrough next turn.




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Post #: 49
Turn 7 - 9/27/2020 8:14:25 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Turn 7 North: Further penetration, and conversion of 12 hexes, including a right hook across the north (!) of Ilmen. Did not save turn star images, sorry. We are set up to make a Neva crossing turn 10 or 11, as there are mostly only level 1 forts at the schwerpunkt near the Volkhov. Russia must need reinforce the eastern Volkhov or risk unreclaimable terrain.




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Turn 7 - 9/27/2020 8:16:44 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Center upper: claim 4 rows of hexes, but swamps and rivers are inpenetrable with my dispersion of forces. A nice foray towards Rzhev is made. Tanks can penetrate further but risk being cut off. Turn is not done, but one plan is to isolate them with an HQ full of fuel to boost a drive to Torzhok or even Moscow next turn!

Center lower: the Bryansk reconnaissance-in-force was isolated but required extreme resource commitment to free up. The road to Orel is open.




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Turn 7 - 9/27/2020 8:18:47 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		South: Stalino push was isolated, as expected, but reinforcements were fueled up, mainly from Ju-52/m's, and made their way to clear a supply path. Nothing else was moved this turn, so note the motorized MP's. There is plenty of opportunity to, at a minimum, cross the Dnepr by Zaporozhye or even pocket the entire front, albeit leakily (Wiking drive NW after being freed).






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Post #: 52
End - 9/27/2020 8:29:57 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Unfortunately, at this point, we have decided to call off the game. Sillyflower played a generally nice defensive game but neglected some out of the way swathes of land that I abused by using whatever ways I could get fuel to the otherwise starving forces. I'm not sure I was quite happy with this mode of gameplay, which is much, much more maneuver warfare and industry-focused. However, as STAVKA put up very hard walls with units that otherwise would have defended those areas, I felt no recourse. I have bagged over 50 armaments and heavy industry at this point (all of Mogilev, Bryansk, Odessa, Kirovograd, Krivoi Rog, Stalino/Gorlovka/Konstantinovka). However, given the relatively new state of the supply game, whether this is optimal and whether it even matters remains up for grabs. This uncertainty of the meta-game as well as update fixes makes this tactic whereby I gained a lot of ground at a cost of making pockets questionable. Soviet OOB at 3.6 million and only 369 units destroyed (starting turn 1, 87, 77, 95, 52, 32, 19, 7), which is likely relatively less than a slower paced pocketing game would have achieved.

Overall strategic map is shown. I am slightly slower gaining ground on Leningrad than could have been otherwise due to the encirclement mishap on turn 4. However, that in turn led to huge force commitment by the Soviets as well as the opportunity cost unit fort building due to their surround. Leningrad will likely fall before mud, and Osinovets port bombing is insurance for this, being already at 19% damage. Center is rather slow because of my gambit towards Bryansk. I could make the connection between Gomel and Kiev at any time I want, but this is a pointless endeavor and will leave it to 1 or 2 high morale infantry divisions from 6th army marching north. My PzG 2 foray towards Rzhev will likely force a retreat from Velikie Lukie and a repositioning from Vyazma, making the penetration to Moscow that much easier. At the same time, Soviet must guard Tula against a surprise thrust from my already forward units. Finally, in the South, we both ignored the Kiev skirmish. I made the unexpected pocket near Nikolaev by penetration the Dnepr swamps where tanks usually would not even attempt to go against any defense, so this perhaps calculated risk by STAVKA failed and resulted in loss of 9th army as well as unhinging of the southern Dnepr by the drive to Stalino.

Depending on the supply meta-game, my industry grab may have no effect at all. If the game were to continue, I would have to all-in on industry given the lack of pockets this game. Armor would be railed down to Moscow region from AGN turn 9-10, and with the forced reposition this coming turn, forts will likely be weak. STAVKA will have to make a decision to evacuate Moscow or Tula/Voronezh, squeezing Soviet future supply even harder.

I welcome comments and discussion on this example of a maneuver game.

As Sillyflower and I both felt either disgruntled or uncomfortable by the meta-state of the game and the future prospects based on the results, we have called off this game. Good game to SF, and stay tuned for the next AAR.





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Post #: 53
RE: End - 9/27/2020 9:14:24 PM   
redrum68

 

Posts: 1202
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Status: offline 		Disappointed to see it come to an end as it was a very interesting game. By "industry" do you mean you'd primarily target ARMs, HI, or both at this point? IMO, the Soviets should have plenty of time to evacuate Tula/Moscow and he could possibly even hold Moscow in 1941 still.

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Post #: 54
RE: End - 9/28/2020 6:43:31 AM   
tyronec


Posts: 4940
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From: Portaferry, N. Ireland
Status: offline 		Am interested in your leaving so many cities ungarrisoned where they are not close to active rail lines.
(yes, I do have a copy of T7 of this game !).
Is there not a danger of a lot of partisans that will then migrate across the map ?

How far away from an important rail line do you think it is OK to have partisans generating ?
Do they draw supplies that could be going to more dangerous ones.
An does anyone know what maximum range IL4s will supply partisans.




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RE: End - 9/28/2020 2:09:51 PM   
eskuche

 

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Status: offline 		I have discussed at lengths with Telemecus about this. Areas which will not receive any rail for a long time (Minsk, Kiev) I feel very comfortable leaving ungarrisoned. They will indeed draw sorties from VVS bases (in my turn 35-40 game currently, they're popping up at Cherkassy, which is completely fine by me), so the VVS will need to more carefully control/limit supply flights. IL-4's in my experience, aka the one or two times I spot-checked, do not seem to fly their entire 100+ hex range to resupply. That is something to be looked into further, as this could be simply that I did not have enough regiments, and they resupplied closest first.

Regarding the actual partisan counters, I am still quite suspect of the mechanics. I have read accounts of people combing their rail lines to displace partisans, but this should incur battle losses, and as I have definitely moved past places with hidden partisans with units (as confirmed by an opponent or by future popups), I don't think there is danger of displacement of hidden cadres in the non-garrisoned regions. However, they do in fact disappear over time, but that could possibly be explained away by them merging, which is detailed in the logistics log as well. Overall, probably too much swing of luck for the partisan minigame. I'd much rather have entire theatres choked for a percentage of throughput (which doesn't exist as a concept in WitE1) on a rolled table based on the theatre garrison box like in WitE2. However, I do enjoy having the option to re-allocate usage of security divisions, such as holding and clearing pockets, with a tradeoff.

PS. Probably should bug-report your getting access to my separate on-going game when we started a new one! Weird bug in the server...

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Post #: 56
RE: End - 9/28/2020 2:11:32 PM   
eskuche

 

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Joined: 3/27/2018
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quote:

ORIGINAL: redrum68

Disappointed to see it come to an end as it was a very interesting game. By "industry" do you mean you'd primarily target ARMs, HI, or both at this point? IMO, the Soviets should have plenty of time to evacuate Tula/Moscow and he could possibly even hold Moscow in 1941 still.


And there's the rub with industry war. If you break through at one point, Soviet merely has to prioritize evacuation right ahead of the breakthrough, which is likely out of gas. I think there is a very, very small window where you can effect an actual crisis on rail evacuation. Or maybe your opponent kicked their reserve rail up to 50% and will feel a crunch anyhow...

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Post #: 57
RE: End - 9/28/2020 11:17:37 PM   
Seminole


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quote:

Sillyflower played a generally nice defensive game but neglected some out of the way swathes of land that I abused by using whatever ways I could get fuel to the otherwise starving forces. I'm not sure I was quite happy with this mode of gameplay, which is much, much more maneuver warfare and industry-focused. However, as STAVKA put up very hard walls with units that otherwise would have defended those areas, I felt no recourse.


Sorry to see it end, always want to see them play out.

Nothing wrong with your adaptive response. If he goes too far in ‘neglect’ it’s your duty to exploit it, not beat your head on a brick wall he’s creating for you.

I would love to see more explanation of the the beta supply system from the German perspective.
If I cut off panzer corps with their HQ in the pocket, are they drawing supply?
AGN got a little greedy and I have the chance to isolate them for turns 3 and 4 supply cycles, but not sure what that will mean since they had an HQ in the pocket.

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Post #: 58
RE: End - 9/29/2020 12:51:53 AM   
eskuche

 

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Joined: 3/27/2018
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Seminole
I would love to see more explanation of the the beta supply system from the German perspective.

I should do a short infographic on it sometime. To my understanding:
The gist is that local modifiers (distance, local vehicles, etc.) are used when ASKING for supply, and global modifiers (weather, rail modifier, global vehicles) are used when GETTING the supply.

A unit asks for supply from its HQ. The HQ asks for supply from railhead. The HQ gets a fraction of this supply from railhead based on penalties. The unit gets whatever fraction the HQ received, but this is usually less than it asked for. This last step, however, can also draw on HQ supply/fuel dumps, so while you're penalized multiple times for factors, there is a small buffer in the form of supply dumps, which, keep in mind, take one vehicle to move one ton at 100% of an HQ's movement.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Seminole
If I cut off panzer corps with their HQ in the pocket, are they drawing supply?

AGN got a little greedy and I have the chance to isolate them for turns 3 and 4 supply cycles, but not sure what that will mean since they had an HQ in the pocket.


In this case, all of the local modifiers (except maybe vehicles I think) are erased, including the 50% independent penalty. The unit asks for 100% needed from its HQ. You can imagine this as an emergency maneuver. The HQ then (I believe) has no penalty when delivering all of the requested supplies. The rub is that it can't receive anything from railhead, so it basically dumps its dumps on the unit. Granted, you're probably going to fail the admin and/or initiative checks for MP (20% cumulative penalty) due to increased leader check roll range when isolated, but this can make an isolated unit that is broken out very dangerous.

Being fully isolated is an extreme example. Being outside of 25 hexes/100 mp of railhead leads to the same situation. However, the HQ, if INSIDE this range, can draw supply normally, but (I believe) is then penalized with the global penalties while receiving.

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Post #: 59
RE: End - 9/29/2020 10:15:40 AM   
EwaldvonKleist


Posts: 2038
Joined: 4/14/2016
From: Berlin, Germany
Status: offline 		Did you caputre 50 Arms+HI or 50 Arms AND 50 HI?
In both cases he would be fine respectively okay under old industry meta (1.11.03 and older). I think it is a bit early to give up for industry reasons for "rational" reasons, although it is understandable the raids cause a drop in player morale levels.

_____________________________

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Do you want total war? Guide for WitE players

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Post #: 60
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