Assistance on Baltic Fury 4

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Assistance on Baltic Fury 4 - 2/15/2022 9:00:08 PM

maverick3320

Posts: 146
Joined: 2/14/2021
Status: offline

Looking for some assistance on Baltic Fury 4. The overall concept of the scenario is for WP to attack a series of NATO airbases and installations on the Jutland peninsula/Denmark/northern Germany. WP has 16 hours to accomplish this task (approximately 40 some targets all over the map).

Given the short time frame, my plan was to do a strong fighter sweep immediately, followed closely by SEAD (good amount of Kilters and Kryptons), followed by a strike combined with the quick turn around on my fighters. WP has 10 backfires with TERSCOM kitchens, so I planned to take out the main F-16CG/Tornado runways with those (one runway and two taxiways), hopefully keeping some AMRAAMs on the ground.

The problem is that I don't seem to have enough assets. After attempting the scenario multiple times I end up with the following: the backfires fire 20 kitchens; 10% are intercepted, 30% malfunction(!), 20% miss. I end up with 5-6 hits total spread among the three runways. Further, it appears that the interceptors aren't based there anyway, having been distributed beforehand. Without being able to shut down an airbase, I end up with the following air battle:

PACT: 22x Su-30 Flanker K, 19x Su-27S Flanker B, 38x Mig-23MLK Flogger K, 24x Mig-23ML Flogger G

NATO: 19x F-15C (AMRAAM), 18x Tornado F.3, 18x F-16CG Block 40 (AMRAAM), 38x F-16A, 11x F-16B, 9x Fulcrum A, 10x F-4F ICE (AMRAAM), 28x F-104G, 4x F-4F, 8x F-35XD Draken

Front line fighters: PACT 41, NATO 55 (I didn't count the Fulcrums here even though they all seem like Aces. One of them dodged ten straight PACT missiles.)
Second line fighters: PACT 62, NATO 68
third line fighters: PACT 0, NATO 40

Totals: PACT 103, NATO 163

90% of the NATO fighters are available immediately as well, so I can't game the system and try to pick them off. My initial fighter sweep - 90% of my fighters - can usually kill 25 to 30 NATO fighters, but then a swarm of 40 NATO fighters take off an hour into the scenario and form a blob in the middle of the map that just dominates the air terrain right when my fighter sweep is low on fuel and ammo.

The Mig-23s aren't terribly useful. Since their missiles rarely hit outside 5nm range, they end up having to get in close with the enemy fighters, and the F-16A/Bs just eat them up. The Flankers can only survive by kiting the enemy AMRAAMs; even with extreme micromanagement, I can usually only pull off a 3:1 kill ratio. The problem is there isn't enough time to just wear NATO down.

Post #: 1

RE: Assistance on Baltic Fury 4 - 2/16/2022 4:26:49 AM

AndrewJ

Posts: 2318
Joined: 1/5/2014
Status: offline

Interesting. I played an earlier version of this, and had essentially the opposite reaction. It seemed like I had such a large quantitative advantage that I didn't need to use all my forces.

The version you have is somewhat tougher than the one I faced. The planes at Vandel have been dispersed to nearby airfields so they can't all be trapped on the ground, and you have four fewer AS-4s available to try and close whichever base you choose to engage. NATO is also reserving more of its aircraft (about 20 more) to face your main push, rather than serving them up to be attacked earlier. These seem like prudent defensive moves on their part.

Still, the overall fighter force balance is about the same, and you still have a massive advantage in quantity of BVR capable aircraft. Every fighter you have has BVR missiles. All those F-16A/Bs, F-104s, Drakens, and F-4Fs, all 89 of them, are Sidewinder only. (Heck, some of them are even rear aspect only.) MiG-23s should be able to operate against these with few losses. Firing a pair of AA-7s at a closing F-16, cranking, and then burnering away should allow you to disengage before you can be caught by Sidewinders. Yes, the missile hit chances will be individually low, but fired in pairs they start to add up. Two 30% missiles give you a 51% hit chance, for example, and you have so many MiG-23s that you can do significant damage this way. The -MLs should probably just run home for new missiles, rather than close and play the Aphid game, but the -MLKs have AA-11s which outperform Sidewinders, so they're not helpless if they get forced to merge. I'm generally happy with a MiG-23 if it can dump its two BVR missiles and run. Even running from a long-ranged Sparrow or AMRAAM shot and going home without engaging at all is considered a success, since that's an enemy fighter distracted from engaging my 'real' fighters.

I think your two-wave strategy is absolutely correct, and I did the same thing. Wave 1 clears the standing CAP, triggers and engages any interceptors, tries to spot HAWK sites, and then heads home ASAP for a quick turnaround. Engagements are BVR wherever possible, and the goal is to be back on the ground in less than two hours to ensure quick turnaround for everyone. Then Wave 2 comes in ahead of the SEAD and main strike. The strike triggers the major NATO surge, and your fully reloaded fighters are ready to deal with it. You could even go for three waves if necessary. Lets say Fighter Wave 1 takes 1.5 hours, turns around quickly in 0.75 hours, and sorties again as Fighter Wave 2. This takes another 1.5 hours, and then needs a 3 hour stand-down. Fighter Wave 3 would be in the air by 1000 Zulu, and you would still have 11 hours of fighting time remaining in your mission, which should be plenty for your attack wave to do its work. So you do have time to attrite the enemy, if you choose to take it.

It sounds like you're getting a bit unlucky with your AS-4s. They should have a 15% malfunction rate, rather than 30%. If Vandel isn't a great target anymore, because most of its planes have dispersed, then maybe Nordholz would be a better bet? It hosts a lot of planes, and it's only got two 'runways', so you can assign 10 missiles each and have a very good chance of shutting both.

(in reply to maverick3320)

Post #: 2

RE: Assistance on Baltic Fury 4 - 2/16/2022 2:18:33 PM

Gunner98

Posts: 5508
Joined: 4/29/2005
From: The Great White North!
Status: offline

After Andrew's initial play test I adjusted the NATO deployment and timings to be a tougher opponent.

You now have a lot of runways to shut down and I think the key is timing. You have a lot of 1500kg PGM penetrators' available which do a great job, the problem is short range and vulnerable bombers. The trick - I think - is to follow your initial fighter sweep very closely with a wave a crater creators. This means taking risk on your first wave to allow for escorting your bombers in --- before the F-15s from Soesterberg and the flock of Dutchmen get into play.

Its not comfortable and you will have one helluva fight getting out but it will mean that most of the aircraft in Denmark and Northern Germany will be dead or trapped and your 2nd wave will only need to deal with the Americans and Dutch from the south.

Any feedback on this would be great as this setup has not been properly tested.

Thanks

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(in reply to AndrewJ)

Post #: 3

RE: Assistance on Baltic Fury 4 - 2/20/2022 10:45:23 PM

maverick3320

Posts: 146
Joined: 2/14/2021
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: AndrewJ

Interesting. I played an earlier version of this, and had essentially the opposite reaction. It seemed like I had such a large quantitative advantage that I didn't need to use all my forces.

The version you have is somewhat tougher than the one I faced. The planes at Vandel have been dispersed to nearby airfields so they can't all be trapped on the ground, and you have four fewer AS-4s available to try and close whichever base you choose to engage. NATO is also reserving more of its aircraft (about 20 more) to face your main push, rather than serving them up to be attacked earlier. These seem like prudent defensive moves on their part.

Still, the overall fighter force balance is about the same, and you still have a massive advantage in quantity of BVR capable aircraft. Every fighter you have has BVR missiles. All those F-16A/Bs, F-104s, Drakens, and F-4Fs, all 89 of them, are Sidewinder only. (Heck, some of them are even rear aspect only.) MiG-23s should be able to operate against these with few losses. Firing a pair of AA-7s at a closing F-16, cranking, and then burnering away should allow you to disengage before you can be caught by Sidewinders. Yes, the missile hit chances will be individually low, but fired in pairs they start to add up. Two 30% missiles give you a 51% hit chance, for example, and you have so many MiG-23s that you can do significant damage this way. The -MLs should probably just run home for new missiles, rather than close and play the Aphid game, but the -MLKs have AA-11s which outperform Sidewinders, so they're not helpless if they get forced to merge. I'm generally happy with a MiG-23 if it can dump its two BVR missiles and run. Even running from a long-ranged Sparrow or AMRAAM shot and going home without engaging at all is considered a success, since that's an enemy fighter distracted from engaging my 'real' fighters.

I think your two-wave strategy is absolutely correct, and I did the same thing. Wave 1 clears the standing CAP, triggers and engages any interceptors, tries to spot HAWK sites, and then heads home ASAP for a quick turnaround. Engagements are BVR wherever possible, and the goal is to be back on the ground in less than two hours to ensure quick turnaround for everyone. Then Wave 2 comes in ahead of the SEAD and main strike. The strike triggers the major NATO surge, and your fully reloaded fighters are ready to deal with it. You could even go for three waves if necessary. Lets say Fighter Wave 1 takes 1.5 hours, turns around quickly in 0.75 hours, and sorties again as Fighter Wave 2. This takes another 1.5 hours, and then needs a 3 hour stand-down. Fighter Wave 3 would be in the air by 1000 Zulu, and you would still have 11 hours of fighting time remaining in your mission, which should be plenty for your attack wave to do its work. So you do have time to attrite the enemy, if you choose to take it.

It sounds like you're getting a bit unlucky with your AS-4s. They should have a 15% malfunction rate, rather than 30%. If Vandel isn't a great target anymore, because most of its planes have dispersed, then maybe Nordholz would be a better bet? It hosts a lot of planes, and it's only got two 'runways', so you can assign 10 missiles each and have a very good chance of shutting both.

Yes, Pact does have a massive qualitative advantage, but the strike aircraft would really struggle against a blob that size (40 fighters). I would think even a Soviet commander would hesitate to send in the strike aircraft relatively unprotected against that and a IADs network that has not yet been degraded.

The problem with the Mig-23s is the radar, not necessarily the missiles. Firing at anywhere near max range (which I don't do with Apex) means losing the radar lock at least 80% of the time. Once the first missile is in the air at the F-16s (or any NATO fighter, really) just start living at 100 ft AGL, which the bulk of Pact fighters can't target or really even engage at that level without resorting to close range missiles; the Alamos and Apexes just have poor hit percentages against agile, veteran NATO aircraft. And the F-16s (not to mention the German Mig-29s!) just dominate at low level and close range. It almost always degenerates into this type of fight since my only tactic is to keep IR/radar guided missiles in the air at all times vs NATO aircraft; it keeps the Tornados from keeping a lock and keeps the AMRAAM Falcons on the run. Right now I'm essentially using Flogger Gs as AMRAAM and Sky Flash bait, turning and burning them as necessary, or sending them in on full burner while sniping with Flankers from long range. It works (mostly) but only when I have a 2:1 or better ratio (preferably 6:1; Flogger Gs baiting, Flogger Ks trying to get in AA-11 range, Flankers sharpshooting and scooting).

I'll try a much more drawn out fight next time. I was hoping to somewhat clear the CAP early on which would potentially allow some of the Fencers a second strike. One concern with the attrition strategy is that the number of Alamo As at both fighter bases is fairly limited given the frequency at which they are fired, and without an Alamo A, I can't do any loadout at all for the Flankers (unless there is some way to only load Alamo B/C/Ds that I'm not tracking).

I agree on the Backfire strike on Nordholz, that's the logical next target. My hope was that by taking out Vandel I could turn the battle into a single "front", clearing out Northern Denmark and then attacking Nordholz/F-15 base from multiple axes. With Vandel in operation I'll have AMRAAMs all along the front, unfortunately.

(in reply to AndrewJ)

Post #: 4

RE: Assistance on Baltic Fury 4 - 2/20/2022 10:55:06 PM

maverick3320

Posts: 146
Joined: 2/14/2021
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

After Andrew's initial play test I adjusted the NATO deployment and timings to be a tougher opponent.

You now have a lot of runways to shut down and I think the key is timing. You have a lot of 1500kg PGM penetrators' available which do a great job, the problem is short range and vulnerable bombers. The trick - I think - is to follow your initial fighter sweep very closely with a wave a crater creators. This means taking risk on your first wave to allow for escorting your bombers in --- before the F-15s from Soesterberg and the flock of Dutchmen get into play.

Its not comfortable and you will have one helluva fight getting out but it will mean that most of the aircraft in Denmark and Northern Germany will be dead or trapped and your 2nd wave will only need to deal with the Americans and Dutch from the south.

Any feedback on this would be great as this setup has not been properly tested.

Thanks

Yes, I noticed that after reading Andrew's initial AAR. I think sending in a strike right away would be very challenging timing wise, as even if I send out 90% of my fighters on a strong sweep immediately when the clock starts the F-15s (and 20ish other A/C) start to arrive on scene as my initial sweep is running low on ammo and fuel (in particular I notice at least six F-16CGs taking off at the same time as the F-15s). With the fighter sweep results in question I think it would be challenging to also manage SEAD along the front, otherwise those penetrators won't even reach the airfields.

In terms of balance, not being able to knock out Vandel makes it challenging. I'm trying an attrition strategy right now and I'll see how that goes. I'm certainly not an expert player though so others may be able to pull off a quick strike.

(in reply to Gunner98)

Post #: 5