Hirohito
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Joined: 9/10/2004
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I was trying to start a serious conversation about the pros and cons of using a strategy similar to the one that Lawrence used in the Arabian desert. I see parallels between an ocean of sand and an ocean of water. Sun Tzu also talked about the strategy of severely stressing but not entirely cutting an enemy's supply line as a way to bleed them so badly you can then hit strong points elsewhere.
By not invading PI, Malaya, Singapore, Burma, and the China interior for a while, the troops that would have been there are freed up for operations against targets that are fairly easy to take if you hit them right away but much harder to take if you wait, India, Australia, and possibly Hawaii.
Most of the posts in response to my original post have been along the lines of "it won't work because I say so", but there has been on real discussion as to why it won't work. Most people that responded to the original post either didn't read the whole thing or misunderstood it. Or they quibbled over something unimportant.
I'm not interested in this kind of "arguing". I was looking to have a serious discusion.
Here, again, is the plan, laid out as clearly as I can:
The objective of the plan is to set up several gauntlets though which allied shipping must pass so that these supply convoys can be attacked regularly, so that the true targets can be hit directly and hard because the allies will be busy defending everywhere. The bases making up the gauntlet are to be kept as small in number as possible so that the Empire is not in the position of having to defend everywhere, but is putting the allies in that position. The addition of the Alaska gambit is to try to tie up as many American forces as possible defending the west coast, that gambit probably will eventually fail, but the conquest of America is not the objective, keeping American forces OUT of the way while India, Australia, and the original co-prosperity sphere is conquered at a later date IS the objective.
I'm not certain that PH can hold up to a very determined, aggressive attempt to take it as part of the original Nagumo raid. Sending all ten Empire carriers on the orginal raid plus a large number of capital ships and a large number of replenishment ships puts the USN in a very tight spot at PH. Ships trying to get there will be attacked by swarms of planes and special attack squadrons made up for that purpose that are lurking under the air umbrella that the ten carriers provide. Ships trying to levae the area will face the same fate. The surprise attack will knock out the air force at PH, but ten carriers can provide a more than decent CAP. How long this force can stay on station without a base nearby is questionable, however on Dec 8 forces stream out of Kwajelien, Truk, Palau, Bonin and other places heading for Midway, Johnston Island, Palmyra Island, and every place in the Hawaiin islands that a landing can be made at. These forces come in three waves, first small frces on fast transports made up of fast ships, these forces are trying to find undefended spots, there should be at least one in the Hawaiin islands. The allied player is going to have a tough time moving transports with ten carriers on station harrassing anthing that moves, so getting the defedners from PH to the other potential landing spots int he Hawaiin islands will be tricky. Most of the intial landings will fail, not enough troops, but they aren't supposed to all succeed, the Empire only needs one of them to succeed.
The second wave is a large number of transports wth anyone who can carry a gun who was based in Kwajalein, Truk, Palau, Bonin, and other places in these island chains plus minimal supplies, these forces are to either exploit the initial landing made by the fast transports if one of them succeeded or force a landing at what is deemed to be a weak spot.
The third wave is made up of the engineers, headquarters units and large numbers of supplies and fuel.
Now, if any of the bases anywhere near PH falls between Dec 8 and when the fuel sitation starts getting dicey for the original raiding force, these supply units will be sent to that base and the raiders will switch their home base from wherever they were from in Japan and elsewhere to the newly captured base. The raiders will have to leave, but they will be back. The only question is where will this base be? My bet goes on Kona. But, Johnston Island is almost impossible to hold in the early days of December.
While this is going on the troops that would have been landing in the PI, Malaya, and all the little meaningless islands all over the pacific are instead bypassing Singapore and Malaya and hitting the DEI, not the whole thing but the circle that points from Palau and goes around to end at Medan. To keep from having to get into the "gamey" argument, on Dec 7 I have a rule that no japanese forces can have a destination that is not a japanese base excpet for PH or one of the hawaiin islands, forces from all over japanese held areas leave with destinations that make it look like they are reinforcing other Japanese bases like Palau, Truk, Kwajalein, Saigon, etc. On Dec 8 a huge force moves into the waters between Malaya and Saigon, it looks like they are heading for Malaya but their real destination is Palembang and Batavia. On the 7th figters are moved up to the outer most points south of Saigon and put on long range cap. Again, this force consists of three waves, fast transports to hit everything and anything seeking an undefended spot and to probe for weak spots making up wave 1, large forces infantry forces on transports making up wave two, and HQ and engineer units with lots of supplies and fuel making up wave 3. The waves are made up by the speed of the ships and where they are headed, either for the beach or a point offshore. I use very fast ships for the fast transports, wave two is made up of all the transports that have a speed of 14 in their own TFs, transports of speed 11 follow behind, everything else comes in wave three.
The nice thing about fast transport missions, those same destroyers and light cruisers can have their missions changed to bombardment or surface combat after they drop their invasion force. So, you can hit a dozen places at once, get repulsed in eleven of them, get a foothold in one and reroute the ships in wave two to head for the foothold or you can convert the ships from the fast transport missions into bombardment missions and hit a weak spot that repulsed you earlier. When you uncover surface warships of the enemy in wave one, you can send the covering forces to meet them and/or covnert the fast transports into surface combat missions and move them to meet them.
Yes, there will be casualties. Perhaps lots of them. But, the Empire can put so many ships in the water bound for so many places it is impossible for the Dutch to stop them all, even with the Brits still in Singapore.
Daylight of the 8th is going to be a rough one on the British navy in Singapore and Malaya thanks to the planes in Saigon and elsewhere.
There is another force heading for the end of the DEI that points at Palau, this force left on the 7th with Japanese possessions as their destinations. Again, this force can hit the DEI in many places at once seeking a weak spot as soon as it is found the successive waves solidify the hold and the planes move in and the DEI are rolled up from the end facing Palau to wherver the force that landed comfing from the diretion of Saigon ended up. Rolling up the DEI from there to Medan is a simple matter.
Meanwhile, small forces have been probing all along the line from Kwajalein through Guadlcanal, Santa Cruz, Espirito Santo, Efate, New Caledonia, and New Zealand, once an undefended spot is found a larger force consolidates.
By Jan 7 the picture should look like this:
Empire holds:
1. Aleutians, Dutch Harbor, Adak Island and hopefully something in the Alaskan panhandle.
2. Midway, Wake, Johnston Island, Palmyra Island, Christmas Island, and hopefully something in the Hawain Islands. I'm not sure that the Hawaiin Islands can hold out under a very determined all out effort to take them.
3. The western end of Papua New Guines and all the bases between Papua New Guinea and Davao.
4. The chain of islands in the DEI that starts at the end pointing at Palau and goes through Timor, Flores, Soembawa, Bali, Java, and Sumatra ending at Medan.
5. The bases between Borneo and the Phillipine Islands proper.
Now, what does the Empire do next? The objective is to keep the US off balance for as long as possible worrying about the west coast and Hawaii while India is taken by sea, followed up by an invasion of Australia. Taking Australia is tough but it can be done. McArther said he could only hold 30% of Australia. So, the Empire can end up with the other 70% at least.
How long to take India? That depends on how the AI engine treats the interior of India if the bases along the coasts are taken. Are these areas making their own supply? Or do they rely on supply from the rest of the commwealth? At the very least it should be possible to slice and dice the interior of India and take it a piece at a time.
In the meantime the gauntlet is making life tough for Malaya, Singapore, Burma, Papua New Guinea, and PI. Taking out the bases that make up the other end of the "Hump" and the Burma Road is a top priority, but this time from the coast instead of over the long jungle trails, it should be possible. What does the AI do about supply in China in this case? That is an unknown. Hopefully, China now has serious supply problems.
So, if all goes well, the second phase of the war looks like this:
The Empire controls:
1. India
2. Australia
3. Alaska including the panhandle
4. Outposts in the Hawaiin islands
5. The Gauntlet bases desribed above
Now, it is time for phase three, the conqest of the original co-prosperity sphere, Malaya, Singapore, PI, Papua New Guinea and all the little nothing islands that were previously bypassed.
If the Hawaiin Islands did not fall previously, once the co-prosperity sphere is established, an all out effort is made to take them.
At the end of phase III, the Empire holds:
1. India
2. Burma
3. Malaya and Singapore
4. DEI
5. PI
6. Australia or 70% of it
7. Papua New Guinea
8. Alaska including the panhandle
9. Hawaii or at least a stronghold on it somewhere
10. All the islands in the pacific outside of Hawii if Hawii still stands
The war is now a ground war on the west coast of the US.
For the US to move out from the west coast, if Hawaii fell it means they have to cross the many miles in between with only carriers for air cover. Taking back the pacific will be a very long, very hard job.
If Hawaii didn't fall and the Empire has a strong outpost on it then building up the invasion force for retaking the Pacific will be made tougher.
What willl the addition of India and Australia do to Japan's resource point situation? Will closing the "hump" and the burma road mean the end for China? If China falls what does the resource situation look like for the Empire?
I am not saying that this plan is not risky. It is. I'm not saying it will definitely work. But, I have planned every move for the first two phases down to the last ship, the last box of ammo, the last gallon of fuel. The amuont of time it takes to play this game makes seeing this plan trhough to the end problematic.
Now, if anyone wants to discuss the merits or the flaws of this plan in detail I will be happy to do so, but if you just want to flame me I won't answer.
Hirohito
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RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 
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