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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 8/18/2009 1:56:20 AM

morgil

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Sweden:
I cant remember where i found the numbers, but Swedish ore exports to Germany during WWII was reduced every year, with a big reduction in -42 or -43, before it was finally cut off entirely. In the early war, Sweden was demobilized, and I guess only good diplomacy, and promises to continue ore deliveries that Germany was completely dependent on, kept them out of the war. Almost 60% of all German Iron Ore imports came from Sweden.

Winterwar:
Germany should only opt for war in the cases where there is only one chit in the pool, and/or if it is probable that they can stop the war after the first impulse. Thus, if USSR checks the USE pools, and has a unit SE of Petsamo, one SE of Salla, and the rest in the Karelia area, it should be no trouble declaring in J/F 40. It should be highly unlikely that Germany would trade 2 USE chits for a resource, a HQI, several winterized units, and another icefree port in Northern USSR.

The worst part I believe of loosing Finland however is the possibility of shipping Lend-Lease through Norwegian ports.

< Message edited by morgil -- 8/18/2009 2:09:55 AM >

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 8/18/2009 1:34:09 PM

micheljq

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Archangel port is not useable when weather is bad, to receive the western allies's loans.

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Post #: 302

RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 8/18/2009 4:10:46 PM

composer99

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At WiFCon I just played the USSR and made the effort to hold the rail line to Murmansk in a Barb campaign. As far as I am concerned it was a success as I got the two factories in Murmansk and then secured Petsamo; the problem was that my Allies never came through with enough lend-lease for me to build up and go on the offensive (to be fair, they lost a lot of convoys in 1941-42). The problem for the USSR, as Brian notes above, is that it is too easy for alternative lend-lease routes to be cut.

I think as long as the USSR can prevent a forced peace and can threaten a surprise impulse invasion near Helsinki the Germans should probably cave in over a Borderland claim. If the USSR conquers Finland their lend-lease options improve considerably and so does the survivability of Leningrad.

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Post #: 303

RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 8/18/2009 4:33:16 PM

brian brian

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ahhh, Lend-Lease through Norway. I like that idea and I'll have to tuck that one under the hat. But the Germans could stop that pretty quickly by investing in one combined impulse to do a landing and put a ZoC on any of six hexes, or even landing a division in any of five hexes, and actually a few more hexes in MWiF, so I don't think that would go on for very long. Murmansk would still be perfectly safe though.

And given a DoW in J/F 40, the US would still have 1939 chits in the pool, which could possibly include the magic '5' or some threes or fours.

And J/F and M/A are the easiest turns for the Germans to land peacekeepers and make the Russians really have to slug their way in to Helsinki. The Russians will have six planes, but Finland is all forest, and the Luftwaffe might have some spare capacity left-over from the French campaign to send some support too.

And going in that early in 1940 gives the Japanese plenty of time to deploy to grab a nearly empty Manchuria. But then so does the horribly slow process of setting up for a Finnish operation given the constraints on moving the Russians and the Chinese Communists with all Combined impulses.

So I'm not sure I would pick Jan/Feb 40 either and as the Germans I would still have to think hard about trading in Finland for the USE benefits, not to mention tying the Russians down for most of 1940. Getting even a minimum number of units in to good positions in the Ukraine would be a challenge for them, especially if the Japanese start picking on the ChiComms, though granted if Japan went for Manchuria it would suddenly get easy for the Red Army to move around.

My thinking for the Russians would be to not necessarily go all the way to Helsinki, especially if Germany sent a lot of aid up there, but to have at least a credible threat of doing that.

And I brought this up because it would be important for the Russians to have a CP set up at start in either Leningrad or Murmansk or at sea in the Baltic. The Russians can slog forward along the coast from Leningrad, or if they go around Lake Ladoga they will need a chain of HQ's (especially in the delightful Arctic zone) or they can get creative with some sea supply and the ports north of Helsinki. If you don't want to give away your Finnish idea upon set-up, one from Murmansk could always move to Leningrad a few turns later.

Where to set up the TRS also comes in to play...seeing it in the Baltic is a near-certain tip-off for the Germans, but would certainly speed up the Helsinki operation. If I see that as the Germans I would just stockpile some of the better MIL and GARR units in the Baltic ports and hope the Russians launch when I am not too critically busy in France.

Oh and I would note that it is not super easy for the Axis to cut the other Lend-Lease routes, but that is something out of the hands of the Russian player. The Murmansk route is one they can defend themselves, on land at least.

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 304

RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 8/19/2009 12:35:40 AM

morgil

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Hmm, yes, J/F might be a bit quickish. But the point I really tried to make is that Germany has little to gain from the Winterwar.
And dicounting the Norwegian ports, just add Petsamo, and the resource there, and that should be more than enough to make it a bad trade.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 8/21/2009 4:06:14 AM

Extraneous

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What priorities would you assign to the AI for 19.6 Soviet border rectification?

(A) The USSR doesn�t claim the Finnish borderlands or the USSR claims the Finnish borderlands

(B) The USSR doesn�t claim Bessarabia or the USSR claims Bessarabia.

What priorities would you assign to the AI to DOW Japan?

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 8/25/2009 8:54:00 PM

brian brian

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I would always claim Bessarabia.

I am leaning towards a demand on the Finnish borderlands in all games as well, to help protect the rail line to Murmansk in the event of a powerful 1941 Barbarossa.

Given the ponderous nature of operating on all Combined impulses, I think May/Jun 1940 is the best turn to make the demand on Finland. Jul/Aug might be a little better from a US entry point of view. But it might take a long time to march all the way to Helsinki.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 8/25/2009 11:07:41 PM

morgil

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I would agree, with brian here.
Romania is one less resource to Germany, and one more to USSR, Finland is just one more to USSR.
And strategically I think Bessarabia is more important than Finnish Borderlands.
However, as brian pointed out, its quite ponderous to move a large army with only Combined impulses, so if you are going for both, it would be better to claim Finish lands first, and then Bessarabia, as your units are then more where you want them to be.

Possibly one could allow the US to "veto", or greenlight, the FB claim until M/J 1940.
That is, if forinstance the chits in the pool are weak, US could encourage the move, and if they are strong, discourage it.

< Message edited by morgil -- 8/25/2009 11:08:27 PM >

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 8/26/2009 4:11:02 PM

brian brian

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I hadn't considered the order to do them in. I set-up to do Bessarabia first, so if the Germans want to activate Rumania by attacking Yugoslavia they have to do it at their first opportunity. The fact most likely to get the Germans to cede it is having the entire Soviet bomber force positioned in range of Ploesti. Some ground units help too of course but aren't as important to have maximized.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 8/27/2009 4:28:44 PM

brian brian

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So I tried out a 'Summer War' yesterday in a solitaire CyberBoard. I have just looked at the MWiF map and things are quite different now. In paper-WiF Vyborg/Viipuri is a bottleneck for the Russians that can only be attacked from one hex. The best way around this for the Russians is to use Zhukov's HQ Support, but then you need a motorized division in the attack in case of a Blitz loss. In my paper version, the Russians attacked in Jul/Aug due to a failure to have a mot. division ready for May/Jun. The Russians bounced off the initial attack and will probably now never conquer Finland before Barbarossa as they will face two German MIL in each hex along the way to Helsinki, in addition to Luftwaffe support. Developing flank support is too difficult in the Arctic after the summer and with the distances and hex-costs involved on the Scandinavian map, but they probably have safeguarded the link to Murmansk. There was actually a lot more excitement as the Finns left Helsinki empty to maximize front-line defense as well as holding the resource in Petsamo. The Russians tried the lucky attack with the 2-3 Infantry division and rolled a 12 + 6 = 18 to take the hex, then failed on their main attack on Vyborg. The Finns were then able to walk back and retake the capital. Classic case of WiF's simultaneous good luck / bad luck. This is high-risk play for Finland as German units could not land and re-take a Russian hex. If the Russians had had two infantry divisions available afloat the Finns would have sacrificed the resource and deployed in Helsinki.

In MWiF, Finland is more vulnerable. Every position along the direct line from Leningrad to Helsinki can be attacked from at least two hexes. The best place for the Finns to hold the flank is the swamp hex north-east of Viipuri, but that puts their main position in a clear hex vulnerable to Soviet tanks. Still, the overall key to the operation is the date it is launched I think. In Jul/Aug 1940, as the Germans I would still consider denying the Borderlands request and shipping as much MIL as I could get to the coast of the Baltic on time, something I generally have available there anyway as part of the garrison in Poland. A lot would depend on what overall level of assets the Russians had in the Leningrad area and if it was deeper in to the turn or not (this can happen as the Russians slowly deploy their Baltic Fleet for shore bombardment support). The Russians just might get sucked in to a quagmire. If they launch in May/Jun 1940, they will have plenty of time to methodically blitz toward Helsinki and take it regardless of how many volunteers Germany could send. If the Russians are slack on preparation for the war due to ops elsewhere and launch after Jul/Aug, there is no doubt I would deny the claims as the Germans.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 8/27/2009 11:00:15 PM

brian brian

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also, the Soviets accidentally discovered one ideal time to attack Finland: Whenever the Germans have a Merchant Raider in a neutral port. Just one Combined Impulse won't be enough for the Germans to reinforce Finland.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 9/8/2009 3:56:21 PM

Extraneous

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Things the AI for the USSR to keep under consideration:

(1) Eastern Poland

(2) DoW Persia

(3) Japan DoW of USSR

(4) Soviet border rectification - Finland

(5) DoW Iraq

(6) The Baltic States

(7) Soviet border rectification - Bessarabia

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 9/9/2009 4:27:48 AM

paulderynck

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A DoW on Iraq is unwise prior to conquering Persia or Turkey.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 9/9/2009 3:27:49 PM

composer99

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One sneaky thing the USSR player attempted in our RL game is as follows:
- As Germany, I ran into delays taking out Poland (so I only seized Warsaw in November/December)
- The Soviets declined to secure Eastern Poland
- As of Jan/Feb, the border had advanced beyond where my garrison was, so in theory I had no defensive garrison
- Had I not been able to go first, the Soviets would have been able to declare war on Germany in Jan/Feb 1940

Fortunately for me, I went first, so now I control Eastern Poland and the Soviets can't occupy the Baltic, which will save me some time when I attack them.

Given the risks involved, this should be a very low probability move; the USSR shouldn't even think about it unless Germany muffs up the Polish campaign (bad attack dice, stormy weather, that sort of thing) and even then I would think there should be no more than a 5% probability of attempting this gambit if and only if the Germans can't finish Poland off until the end of November/December 1939.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 9/9/2009 3:39:03 PM

sajbalk

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But now that the sneak has failed, Germany is very well positioned for a 1941 Barb. Your units can get another 4-5 hexes to the east saving 1 or 2 impulses in the crucial surprise turn.

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

One sneaky thing the USSR player attempted in our RL game is as follows:
- As Germany, I ran into delays taking out Poland (so I only seized Warsaw in November/December)
- The Soviets declined to secure Eastern Poland
- As of Jan/Feb, the border had advanced beyond where my garrison was, so in theory I had no defensive garrison
- Had I not been able to go first, the Soviets would have been able to declare war on Germany in Jan/Feb 1940

Fortunately for me, I went first, so now I control Eastern Poland and the Soviets can't occupy the Baltic, which will save me some time when I attack them.

Given the risks involved, this should be a very low probability move; the USSR shouldn't even think about it unless Germany muffs up the Polish campaign (bad attack dice, stormy weather, that sort of thing) and even then I would think there should be no more than a 5% probability of attempting this gambit if and only if the Germans can't finish Poland off until the end of November/December 1939.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 9/10/2009 1:09:04 AM

brian brian

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buh bye Josef, you threw the dice and they came up snake eyes

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 9/10/2009 3:49:11 AM

brian brian

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Extraneous

Things the AI for the USSR to keep under consideration:

(1) Eastern Poland

timing is everything, just ask Composer99's opponent. Don't let even a 10% chance to end the turn come up before you do this.

quote:

(2) DoW Persia

I am opposed except in cases where Japan is just clueless, with nothing in Canton to respond and a good chance to end the turn before anything reaches Canton. The operation takes longer in MWiF so this is magnified. Come to think of it, that would give me as Japan a greater chance to lay in wait with nothing in Canton, but always with enough lift in reserve to intervene in Persia in two impulses instead of one. Hmm, I like that. Anyway, even a Japan that doesn't look like it will attack the USSR might issue the DoW if the Russians open the door to that wonderful oil in Persia.

quote:

(3) Japan DoW of USSR

For me playing Japan, a no brainer, unless it's a 1941 Gibraltar campaign. Then Tojo better think twice. For the Russians, I leave a couple medium-good GARR in the cities and make Japan march up and fight them. How many of the Pacific reserves to leave out there I go with a case by case basis. I do like having fun with the 2-5 and 1-5 cavalry units that are worthless anywhere near the panzers anyway. And I never surrender against the Japanese...what's the point?

quote:

(4) Soviet border rectification - Finland

I like the extra security for the Murmansk rail lines.

quote:

(5) DoW Iraq

This is a DoW too far in my opinion. Maybe if the Axis is bogged down in Spain this can be good though.

quote:

(6) The Baltic States

Another essential. Nov/Dec 1940 is my preferred turn. Some thought can be given to Sep/Oct 39 if you want to seriously attempt stuffing the border in 1941 to insure the Italians can't sneak in there.

quote:

(7) Soviet border rectification - Bessarabia

Another definite. A really, really good player I know disagrees but I don't understand the downsides. Enlighten me.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 9/10/2009 1:44:50 PM

sajbalk

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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

(7) Soviet border rectification - Bessarabia

Another definite. A really, really good player I know disagrees but I don't understand the downsides. Enlighten me.

If the USSR does not claim Bessarabia, the Axis cannot align (and set up in) Rumania without a DOW on Yugoslavia. In this event, yugo cannot be another Italian Home Country, and the Axis have 1 less HQ-I. If Bess is claimed, some Axis will decline the claims and DOW Bulg and Hun, then Greece. Then they align Yugo to Italy and are set up in Rumania for the start of barb.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 9/10/2009 4:08:25 PM

Cheesehead

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I agree that Bess is crucial to the GE. One of the reasons I always go for the DOW on Yugo impulse 3, SO39 when I play GE, then align Rumania. It can cost some USE chits, but it is so important to keep those city and clear hexes in Bessarabia to stage the short range airplanes for the start of Barbarossa. It is also nice to have Yugo in the bank so early in the game in case France takes longer to conquer then usual. Trying to take out Yugo in JF41 or MA41 is a real pain when you need those turns to be staging for good hit on Russia in MA or MJ41. If the GE decide to go to Spain, it is also nice to have Yugo in the bag in 1939 when most of the Luftwaffe is tied up in the West.

Cheers

John

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 9/10/2009 4:20:41 PM

brian brian

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesehead

Trying to take out Yugo in JF41 or MA41 is a real pain when you need those turns to be staging for good hit on Russia in MA or MJ41.

kinda like in the real war.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 9/10/2009 8:29:33 PM

Cheesehead

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quote:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesehead

Trying to take out Yugo in JF41 or MA41 is a real pain when you need those turns to be staging for good hit on Russia in MA or MJ41.

kinda like in the real war.

Another thing to mention is that Yugo gets 2 extra corps in 41 as compared to 39. A 5-3 INF and a MTN.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 4/21/2010 7:31:09 PM

composer99

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Further to the discussion on the German AI thread about being sure to hold the pact vs. the USSR in 1941 when undertaking a non-Barb strategy, the USSR AI should be prepared to build and deploy to attempt to break the pact vs. Germany in 1941 if it sees Germany building for non-Barb (especially for Sealion). This was mentioned in the suggested build plans upthread, of course, but worth mentioning again.

The question is whether US/CW will want the US entry hit, but the distraction it causes for Germany (especially if they are in the middle of a Spanish/UK campaign) and the lost production (and oil if USSR can also go after Rumania), and the potential for game-altering GBAs should probably be worth it. In particular, if Germany is in the UK, it will need to do combineds to bring army back to Europe, which in the USSR's opinion is gold.

Indeed, if USSR breaks the pact, goes to war, and takes the Rumanian oil, it's pretty much game over for Germany and Italy.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 4/21/2010 8:23:32 PM

Shannon V. OKeets

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Further to the discussion on the German AI thread about being sure to hold the pact vs. the USSR in 1941 when undertaking a non-Barb strategy, the USSR AI should be prepared to build and deploy to attempt to break the pact vs. Germany in 1941 if it sees Germany building for non-Barb (especially for Sealion). This was mentioned in the suggested build plans upthread, of course, but worth mentioning again.

The question is whether US/CW will want the US entry hit, but the distraction it causes for Germany (especially if they are in the middle of a Spanish/UK campaign) and the lost production (and oil if USSR can also go after Rumania), and the potential for game-altering GBAs should probably be worth it. In particular, if Germany is in the UK, it will need to do combineds to bring army back to Europe, which in the USSR's opinion is gold.

Indeed, if USSR breaks the pact, goes to war, and takes the Rumanian oil, it's pretty much game over for Germany and Italy.

Yes.

In particular, it is crucial to not let Germany ignore the USSR with the 'knowledge' that the AIO playing the USSR "never DOWs in 1941". This falls into the generalrule of thumb for an AIO, that it can not be predictable.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 4/22/2010 9:04:53 AM

fallgelb

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An other aspect is that breaking the pact is not leading automatically into a DOW (Russia to Germany)! I would suggest three "escalation levels" for the AI:

1. Trying to break the pact is always (almost always) the right thing. Germany looses the ressources, russia gain the ressources. Germany has to deal the new potential threat. Breaking the pact eventually brings Germany in a position that it have to DOW without the possibility to attack at once because of aligning Rumania and Finland . The USSR is free to do things otherways leading to breaking the pact (DOW Hungary etc.). Germany is under pressure to align its Allies, losing 1942-units (13 BP as Ii remember).

2. The DOW is in most cases also a good decision. Germany looses in most cases the ability to align Finland and Rumania. This is crucial for a Barbarossa. Russia receives the Res units, which are unflipped until Germany is able to attack. Russia gets the ability to biuld MIL. In this escalation Level some minor Operations in the frontier area are intended but no full scale attack. Attacking german CONV in the baltic in the surprise is possible. To mention is the lost US-Entry-chit (or lost chits).

3. Attacking Germany full scale after the DOW. This is IMO only possible if Germany is still engaded in an other theater (still france, spain, Seelion, Med, perhaps balkan). Maybe it works with an early US-emtry as well if germany is not engaded.

In our Games we had sometimes each of the three levels. Each of the situations was favorite for the USSR.

I would almost always agree to Patrice but not regarding his opionion to claim Eastern Poland in any situation. Another post was saying: "You should always claim Eastern Poland if you have not a cunning strategy". One of these cunning (but of course gamey) manouveres is not to claim poland and hope that germany don't remember garrisoning the Eastern Poland Border with enough troops and to break the pact (and in this case DOW) JF40. This operation usualy works only one time

This Operation should be considered especially if Poland is conquered late (ND39), because than germany has to be very aware of this threat to operate accordingly.

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 4/22/2010 5:07:41 PM

hakon

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I think putting too great an emphasis on breaking the pact with the USSR is a bad idea, at least in 40 and 41.

If Germany seems to not be going for a 41 Barbarossa (by sending forces to Africa, building trs, amph, navs, etc), Russia should at the very least secure the Middle east, or even attack Japan outright. If you don't do this, China may end up conquered, and Japan can be very strong then. If you attack Japan, Japan will have to chose whether to more or less stop their offensives in China, or to let Russia take Manchuria. In either case, Japan is likely to suffer more than Russia from such a war, and if Japan sends too few defensive forces against you, you may even take a few resources.

There are two main approaches to attack Japan.

1) Attack Persia first. If Japan is set up to reinforce, they may save you the US entry hit from DOW'ing them by DOW'ing you first, and if they don't, at least you get Persia. In this case, you may still DOW them later.

Advantage : Smaller US entry cost.
Disadvantage: It will be harder to get the Persian oil.

2) Attack Japan directly, preferrably in M/J 40. If you coordinate this with the US, make sure that he puts all 1939 chits in the Ge/It pool, and then the first two 1940 chits in the Ja pool. This is likely to mean that the US entry hit from the DOW is kept to a minimum.

Advantages : This puts more direct damage on Japan, and earlier, and gives you a surprise impulse against them (good for your long ranged bombers, as well as the subs). Should you come to a peace treaty with Japan, you can always DOW Persia after, as Japan will then not be able to forcefully intervene. Also, should Japan set up a strong defensive force against you, you may actually achieve your objective (of saving China) even without having to attack.

Disadvantages : Higher US entry cost, and you may not have the time to take Persia until after the war with Japan, if ever.

In either case, you have to be a bit careful, and specifically watch for any sign that Germany is changing their plan. If they do, Russia should waste no time starting to send forces back to Europe, regardless of the situation vs Japan.

If Germany is building in a way that suggests a Barb41, Russia should NOT risk war with Japan, if they can avoid it. It may still be a good idea to have some defensive forces in the east in 1940, to avoid being attacked in 1940, and maybe even to make the Japanese player a bit cautious. But the last thing you want, is a drawn out war vs Japan while Germany is on your doorstep.

In this case you may want to maximize your garrison vs Germany during the summer of 40, though it is not likely to matter very much. By keeping a few high value pact chits defensive, Germany can get pact values in the 20's or 30's from just a few units, especially if they are SS or MTN. (1 SS + 1 MTN + 2mil units give 2*(2+2+1)=12 garrison (doubled for 1st year after pact). Typically, Germany can easily double this again with chits, requiring Russia ot have a pact value of 48 to break the pact (which is very hard in mid-1940). And this is with only 4 units....

Cheers
Hakon

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RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 4/22/2010 5:26:40 PM

composer99

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I would say as a rough estimate, if Germany spends over 50% of its production on sealift/subs/naval air/navy/long-range fighters/Marines in 1939-1940, the USSR has nothing to fear from a 41 Barb and should be looking for ways to weaken the Axis (attacks on Japan in '40, breaking pact whether or not a war vs. Germany in '41).

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(in reply to hakon)

Post #: 326

RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 4/22/2010 7:14:51 PM

Shannon V. OKeets

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: fallgelb

An other aspect is that breaking the pact is not leading automatically into a DOW (Russia to Germany)! I would suggest three "escalation levels" for the AI:

1. Trying to break the pact is always (almost always) the right thing. Germany looses the ressources, russia gain the ressources. Germany has to deal the new potential threat. Breaking the pact eventually brings Germany in a position that it have to DOW without the possibility to attack at once because of aligning Rumania and Finland . The USSR is free to do things otherways leading to breaking the pact (DOW Hungary etc.). Germany is under pressure to align its Allies, losing 1942-units (13 BP as Ii remember).

2. The DOW is in most cases also a good decision. Germany looses in most cases the ability to align Finland and Rumania. This is crucial for a Barbarossa. Russia receives the Res units, which are unflipped until Germany is able to attack. Russia gets the ability to biuld MIL. In this escalation Level some minor Operations in the frontier area are intended but no full scale attack. Attacking german CONV in the baltic in the surprise is possible. To mention is the lost US-Entry-chit (or lost chits).

3. Attacking Germany full scale after the DOW. This is IMO only possible if Germany is still engaded in an other theater (still france, spain, Seelion, Med, perhaps balkan). Maybe it works with an early US-emtry as well if germany is not engaded.

In our Games we had sometimes each of the three levels. Each of the situations was favorite for the USSR.

I would almost always agree to Patrice but not regarding his opionion to claim Eastern Poland in any situation. Another post was saying: "You should always claim Eastern Poland if you have not a cunning strategy". One of these cunning (but of course gamey) manouveres is not to claim poland and hope that germany don't remember garrisoning the Eastern Poland Border with enough troops and to break the pact (and in this case DOW) JF40. This operation usualy works only one time This Operation should be considered especially if Poland is conquered late (ND39), because than germany has to be very aware of this threat to operate accordingly.

The AIO will take a broader view. What is important is the relative strength of the USSR vis-a-vis Germany on their common border. And by common border I mean all units within 6-10 hexes of the border, not 1-2 hexes. Remember, the AIO's vision is comparable to a blind person using braille. It would be very poor play indeed if the USSR broke the pact only to enable Germany to DOW when they otherwise would not have been able to do so.

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Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to fallgelb)

Post #: 327

RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 4/23/2010 9:14:13 AM

fallgelb

Posts: 28
Joined: 5/8/2007
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quote:

The AIO will take a broader view.

I base my own decisions in this and other matters not on units in Theaters of war, but on global aspects.
Important for me is the distiction of BREAKING PACT and DOW and ATTACKING. This are three levels of action, each level has its cirmumstances in which it is the right ding to do. Breaking the pact if possible is only dangerous if germany is preparing BARBAROSSA 1941 (see below).

The earliest opportunity to Break the pact is in JF40. In most of this cases the USSR can break the pact if germany makes a mistake (don't move the polish garrisons to the border). In some cases germany overcommits itself. France First, the denmark occupation (vs. an early British intervention?), Operations in the balkans, maybe in combination with an attack on the Polish cities which flip the attacking units. The threat of Russia breaking the pact is a shield for the Western Allies to protect them from a too active germany. I think if France is still alive and able to defend itself than Russia should in any case break the pact and maybe DOW and maybe attack. This will lead in most of the cases to a german capitulation 1940.

The second process i can remember leading to breaking the pact was late in 1940 or early in 1941. Germany and Russia were raising their garrissons in the border unit by unit. The Russian manages in this case to raise one time at unexpected speed so it could Brak the pact in one firts Impulse (a technical fault by germany). It was not a major Russian strategy counting invested BP and so minor operations vs. Persia etc were possible. A similiar situation develops if germany DOWs the baltic states to improve it's position in the east. In this situation if it is clear that germany is not building for a BARBAROSSA 1941 but for a MEDITTERANEA Strategy, Russia should break the pact. More important than the locations of the units is, what Germany was building until that date. Even if operations are undertaken in the MED, the available german ARM/MECH are heading eastwards.

The third situation is that germany is building for a BARBAROSSA 1941. IMO germany cannot attack Russia in 1941 (or 1942) without preparation, that is building all available ARM/MECH and HQ. Sometimes i tried an imporoviesed BARBAROSSA but in any case it was not a success. If germany is building towards an BARABROSSA 1941 than RUSSIA should not try to brak the pact. In this case RUSSIA should try to stuff the border. My assumption is that the chance of denying a BARABROSSA 1941 in this case is above 90%. If germany losses the turns in 1941 without major operation the Allies should win the war. That results in the axiom that if germany is preparing BARBAROSSA 1941, Russia ought to stuff the border. If Russia is stuffing the border and germany not executes BARBAROSSA than Russia should break the pact (and be able to) in most cases. The BARBAROSSA 1941 mathematics leads IMO to the desicion for germany not to try a BARBAROSSA 1941 (if there is no cunning strategy behind) because you should not try a major operation which has a probalility of less than 10% to success.

Besides that, as Russia i would not try to prevent BARBAROSSA 1942. Breaking the pact is therefore not a problem form JA41 on if germany is at this time not able to attack.

The most difficult situation for the AI is to calculate if vs. a german MED strategy late 1940 or early 1941 (without engagement in spain) with the available german ARM/MECH at the border a full scale built up at the border (to be able to break the pact) should be undertaken. And in this case an attack should not be the primary consideration, but maybe a DOW. But i think this could be processed by the AI in calculating ARM/MECH BP in "range" of the border, availability of HQ and Air.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)

Post #: 328

RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 4/23/2010 6:14:50 PM

micheljq

Posts: 791
Joined: 3/31/2008
From: Quebec
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quote:

ORIGINAL: fallgelb

quote:

The AIO will take a broader view.

The earliest opportunity to Break the pact is in JF40. In most of this cases the USSR can break the pact if germany makes a mistake (don't move the polish garrisons to the border). In some cases germany overcommits itself. France First, the denmark occupation (vs. an early British intervention?), Operations in the balkans, maybe in combination with an attack on the Polish cities which flip the attacking units. The threat of Russia breaking the pact is a shield for the Western Allies to protect them from a too active germany. I think if France is still alive and able to defend itself than Russia should in any case break the pact and maybe DOW and maybe attack. This will lead in most of the cases to a german capitulation 1940.

I did face this as the german what did bug me the most was the Guard Banner Armies the soviets were able to have in 1940. That was making them too strong too early, we did stop using this option. Otherwise I could have hold eastern Germany and do a strong counterattack in 1941. And the americans were to enter the war later. Ever heard of the Battle of Tannenberg in 1914? Where a russian army advanced too much in Germany was annihilated?

quote:

The third situation is that germany is building for a BARBAROSSA 1941. IMO germany cannot attack Russia in 1941 (or 1942) without preparation, that is building all available ARM/MECH and HQ. Sometimes i tried an imporoviesed BARBAROSSA but in any case it was not a success. If germany is building towards an BARABROSSA 1941 than RUSSIA should not try to brak the pact. In this case RUSSIA should try to stuff the border. My assumption is that the chance of denying a BARABROSSA 1941 in this case is above 90%. If germany losses the turns in 1941 without major operation the Allies should win the war.

Germany can still have a good Barbarossa 1942 and oblitarate the soviets.

< Message edited by micheljq -- 4/23/2010 7:19:40 PM >

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Michel Desjardins,
"Patriotism is a virtue of the vicious" - Oscar Wilde
"History is a set of lies agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte after the battle of Waterloo, june 18th, 1815

(in reply to fallgelb)

Post #: 329

RE: AI for MWiF - USSR - 4/28/2010 8:20:44 PM

micheljq

Posts: 791
Joined: 3/31/2008
From: Quebec
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What USSR should do when it's sure Axis is going for a "take Gibraltar and med" strategy? Is there an AI thread for this eventuality? In this case USSR should think about :
- Invade Persia and Irak before 1942 because Germany could make a '42 Barbarossa. If Axis is concentrated on the Mediterranean, they can try to have 4 corps to align Irak. Irak can then be a base to enter Persia and USSR home nation from there, and could lead to alignment of Turkey. Having USSR facing a Barbarossa from the west and disruption from Turkey and Axis troops in the Caucasus, is bad for them,any thought? I think it is feasible? Before attacking Persia, verify if Japan can send troops in the oil fields of Persia, if so what do? any thoughs, comments?

I am facing this situation in my campaign, I play USSR. Germany took Madrid we are in MA41, and I think they will go for either Syria or Egypt or both after taking Gibraltar, if they do.

_____________________________

Michel Desjardins,
"Patriotism is a virtue of the vicious" - Oscar Wilde
"History is a set of lies agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte after the battle of Waterloo, june 18th, 1815

(in reply to micheljq)

Post #: 330