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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/26/2016 7:17:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Can't build fortifications at Langsa or Sabang. The ports and airfields are trashed after nonstop bombings and bombardments for two months.

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 4741
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/26/2016 7:30:09 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		Yeah, should have thought of that Just thinkin on this while testing client equipment.

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Post #: 4742
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2016 12:27:48 AM   
catwhoorg


Posts: 686
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From: Uk expat lving near Atlanta
Status: offline 		I'm perched on the edge of my seat.

its getting to be crunch time.

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 4743
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2016 3:12:56 AM   
poodlebrain

 

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quote:

I can effectively feint and draw John here while actually moving to reinforce Sumatra in great strength.
I notice you said reinforce Sumatra, and not reinforce Sabang. Do you have another target on Sumatra in mind? Maybe one that threatens Palembang. It would be about the last place your opponent would expect. So the likelihood of those Just In Time reinforcements is pretty low at Benkolen or Oosthaven.

_____________________________

Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4744
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2016 4:27:07 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		If I return to Sumatra it won't be for defensive purposes. I'll be bringing something like seven divisions and a ton of supply. It'll mean the airfields are up and running again.

Sumatra has not been my first choice only because John is obviously focusing there. But if he should shift for some reason, then Sumatra becomes very attraction.

Early in this campaign, some good players thought it was a mistake to not land closer to Palembang or to not focus on Malaya. In hindsight, though, focusing on northern Sumatra was the right choice. I knew it instinctively. I wish I'd known why my instincts were saying that. Having Ceylon and Colombo and Ramree Island so close by made all the difference in the worlds for shuttling aircraft, supplies and ships to and fro. Huge, huge advantage, especially since it was only 1942 so that the Allies didn't have the ability to "colonize the moon," so to speak. In 1944 or 1945, the Allies are so powerful they can go anywhere an establish a colony that is pretty much self sufficient. Not so in 1942 and perhaps well into '43.

If I get an opening to turn Circus towards Sumatra, I'll do so with relish. And, yes, Padang and Sibolga and points south would be prime candidates.

(in reply to poodlebrain)
Post #: 4745
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2016 4:39:18 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/14/43

Battle of Sumatra: Everything in the world points to an imminent invasion of Sabang, but yet another relatively uneventful turn. For reasons every reader knows by now, each day without an invasion or other catastrophe is a small victory for the Allies.

Four CAs hit Sabang to little effect. Two BBs hit Langsa to even less effect (even the Kongos do little damage to troops in jungle terrain behind three forts). Strike aircraft focus on Langsa and 1st Marine Division. I'm somewhat surprised John doesn't order his three divisions to attack the marines. He has something like 1300 AV against 350 (with jungle-rough terrain). But he might see the movement dot and figure if I'm leaving the hex, he'll be glad to get it without messing up his units. I'm pulling back to improve the supply and also in hopes some progress might encourage John - that if he has the slightest doubts about the necessity or wisdom of amphibious assault then this might help him elect the option that I deem most favorable. I am persuaded now that any land-only campaign will not be decisive before Circus gets underway. Only by successful amphibious assault can John wrap this up in time (bearing in mind that he's not aware of my privately created timetables and deadlines).

No sign of KB. That's something I lament.

Operation Circus: Critical mass may be reached as soon as 30 days - meaning, at that point the Allies may have the minimum number of troops, ships and carriers necessary to move if John (meaning, KB and enemy troops) remain committed to Sumatra. In the event he shifts troops to the Circus target area (no SigInt of concern today, by the way), then the day of embarkation to move on Sumatra would be the same. The key is the carriers really. They're at sea and will take position where they can go either way, reacting quickly as circumstances dictate. I'm still accumulating PPs - now have something like 4,600. That's enough to buy all four Australian divisions. But I won't make the purchase until everything is actually a go and the troops need to load aboard ships. As for Peanuts 1 through 3, all left Bombay weeks ago. One has since departed Capetown. The other two will reach there in three days. I couldn't chance the map edge journey to Oz due to threat of the KB (a decision that was affirmed when KB indeed showed up at Diego Garcia a few weeks ago). Peanut 4 will reach Bombay tomorrow. Ships are waiting. She won't reach Oz in time to participate in Circus, but she will be available if there is a shift to Sumatra.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2016 8:31:43 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8262
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Status: offline 		Make sure your Australian units are upgraded from Milita squads to AIF squads!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2016 5:32:44 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/15/43

Battle of Sumatra: No invasion today nor any sign that something's imminent. No bombardments today (a rarity in the past month). Bombings focus on the same three targets: Langsa, 1st Marines and 18th UK.

On the west side, John has pulled one of his three divisions back - a surprise to me. Two divisions isn't enough to successfully prosecute a campaign on the west side. He may be satisfied with just tying down 1st Marines.

On the east side, I pulled back one division to Langsa, leaving two in the contested hex. John has three divisions there but can rapidly reinforce from Medan if he wishes to do so. My two divisions would be in trouble against, say, six enemy divisions. But, again, an overland campaign is the least timely for John, so I'm reconfiguring a bit to boost Sabang against amphibious attack.

KB showed up west of Cocos Island and sank an xAK that was serving as a buffer (picket) for other transports carrying elements of two arty units to Diego (the main part of both units have been there since prior to D-Day).

SigInt reported a day or two ago that both Musashi and Hiyo are not sunk. I knew the former wasn't. I thought the latter might be. Drat.

Battle of Burma: John has at least three divisions there (12th, 18th, 33rd). The first and the last of those are working around Lashio, roughing up some Chinese units. John has reasons for this activity, but going forward it suits me to have those divisions occupied in the hinterlands of Burma.

Operation Circus: John sent this in his email today: "With all those troops available from your pull out of Burma, I am working to figure where you will come from now. Been quite the exercise in thought and LOTS of movement accordingly. Sure bet your Intel has been lighting up over the couple of game weeks!" SigInt is quiet today.

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 4748
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/28/2016 3:07:41 PM   
poodlebrain

 

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quote:

Operation Circus: John sent this in his email today: "With all those troops available from your pull out of Burma, I am working to figure where you will come from now. Been quite the exercise in thought and LOTS of movement accordingly. Sure bet your Intel has been lighting up over the couple of game weeks!" SigInt is quiet today.


Your opponent may be moving lots of units, but what size units is he moving? Are they adequate to defend against the force you will employ in Circus? Have his movements been in time to adequately shore up his defenses?

_____________________________

Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/28/2016 5:21:27 PM   
catwhoorg


Posts: 686
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From: Uk expat lving near Atlanta
Status: offline 		The other thought that occured to me, how are the Aussie infantry pools looking ?

I know they can be fairly shallow in the main game (Not sure about this mod), which could limit the long term success of a mainly Aussie based circus operation

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 3:22:51 AM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

quote:

Operation Circus: John sent this in his email today: "With all those troops available from your pull out of Burma, I am working to figure where you will come from now. Been quite the exercise in thought and LOTS of movement accordingly. Sure bet your Intel has been lighting up over the couple of game weeks!" SigInt is quiet today.


Your opponent may be moving lots of units, but what size units is he moving? Are they adequate to defend against the force you will employ in Circus? Have his movements been in time to adequately shore up his defenses?


No, the quantity of the units isn't a concern yet and may not become one. The Allies will be moving in such concentrated strength that it would be hard for John to garrison adequately.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 3:23:59 AM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: catwhoorg
The other thought that occured to me, how are the Aussie infantry pools looking ?

I know they can be fairly shallow in the main game (Not sure about this mod), which could limit the long term success of a mainly Aussie based circus operation


I'll check this next time I open the game. 6th and 7th Aussie Divisions were involved in heavy combat in Burma and suffered some losses, but nothing major. I think the pools should be in good shape.

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Post #: 4752
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 3:30:42 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/16/43

Battle of Sumatra: No enemy amphibious operations today. Four Sisters and the Kongos hit Sabang this turn, with Ise and Nagato hitting Langsa. Bombers continue to focus on Langsa and the divisions on the west side. With one Allied division withdrawing on the east side, John may like to take a whack there. Movement dots suggest more units are inbound. There is some exposure here - two divisions might end up facing six or so - but this is another part of the dance between us as I hope John elects to pursue a ground campaign rather than amphibious work.

What is John thinking here? Does he assume the Allies are hurting for supply? Does he assume Sabang and Langsa are too strongly held to invade? Or is he drawing opposite conclusions. I really don't know.

Operation Circus: More email comments and enemy activity show an increased interest in the potential Circus area of operations. In a way, I'd love to see John shift his focus over here so that I can cross him up and reinforce Sumatra instead. But when I look at the map and try to see things from his perspective, I assume his biggest concern is a major Allied operation from Ceylon to Sumatra. He has the island airfields to help now, but I don't think he'll be comfortable relying solely on those.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 3:36:37 AM   
BillBrown


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quote:

ORIGINAL: catwhoorg

I'm perched on the edge of my seat.

its getting to be crunch time.


I am too.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 2:41:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/17/43

Battle of Sumatra: No invasion. No bombardments. No bombings. Very strange way to run a way, if you ask me.

On the west side, the two IJ divisions attack 1st Marines and company, suffering a repulse. The Japs lost 20+ squads destroyed and 200+ disabled. The little Allied stack wasn't touched. 1st Marines will pull out of the hex tomorrow, so day after tomorrow John will attack there and push back the picket RCT and tank battalion. The hope here is that pulling back two hexes (to the next jungle-rough terrain) will lock in supply for my stack while giving John a bit of hope. The odds that he'll prefer an overland campaign to an amphibious assault seemed impossible a week back, when I was as positive as I could be that an amphibious assault was going to happen and immediately, but who knows.

Supply is a bit under 150k now, meaning the Allies are at half what they were when the embargo began around February 15. I think supply is sufficient for at least six weeks, maybe two months, at this rate. That's plenty to get us to the new phase where John shouldn't have the luxury of focusing on just one theater.

No sign of KB today.

Operation Circus: No alarming SigInt today, but little signs that John is giving this theater more attention. Fenton (Oz) airfield just went to level one. An IJN sub sank a supply xAK at Pago Pago. That's noteworthy in that there had been a total absence of sub activity in this region since the invasion of Sumatra.

Speaking of which, we're now at D+158. That's hard to imagine.

(in reply to BillBrown)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 2:54:25 PM   
richlove


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Status: offline 		If John lurches his assets away to focus on the threat of Circus, are you prepared to rush reinforcements and supply into Sumatra?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 3:21:59 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
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From: Denver
Status: offline 		I have to admit, I thought he would have come ashore already (over the weekend). I can't imagine him doing a land campaign, or ceding Sabang.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 3:40:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: richlove
If John lurches his assets away to focus on the threat of Circus, are you prepared to rush reinforcements and supply into Sumatra?


Yes, I've described this recently and at some length.

John may well begin shifting major assets to the Circus area if he suspects something is up. In that event, he probably will position the KB where it can go either way. Soerabaja and Darwin are possibilities. The KB will be the key. I only need one or two days free of KB to insert combat ships (thus preventing enemy bombardments) and fighters (to protect the ships). Once Sabang is fully functional again, the campaign is all but decided. The Allies would reinsert the AKE and AE that had the port replenishing even BBs. Then it's a matter of BBs hitting one or two fo the Nocobars to shut them down, invading and taking those islands, and gradually working from there.

It won't be hard to get a window if I catch John leaning towards Circus...assuming I have my assets properly positioned to react before he can.

So, the position of the KB is key. And the position of the Allied carriers is key. At some point we both have to make a call. (But I won't for awhile yet since Circus is about four weeks from going.)

(in reply to richlove)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 4:30:55 PM   
poodlebrain

 

Posts: 392
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From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
Status: offline 		How much repair of your airfields are you able to do during these hiatuses in bombardments?

_____________________________

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 4:32:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm not bothering to repair right now due to the frequency of the bombardments. It's just a waste of supply. But I did repairs early on and learned that I have so many engineers present that the airfield can handle fighters usually one to two turns after a bombardment. Usually substantial repairs are complete after about four days. After that the field is basically fully operational.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 4:41:50 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not bothering to repair right now due to the frequency of the bombardments. It's just a waste of supply. But I did repairs early on and learned that I have so many engineers present that the airfield can handle fighters usually one to two turns after a bombardment. Usually substantial repairs are complete after about four days. After that the field is basically fully operational.



What do you do, put the engineers on rest? Fixing bad runways, and ports doesn't cost extra supply, building new forts, runways etc does.

I would have my engineers on combat, keeping the pressure (friction) on the Japanese to keep the bombardments up.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 4:45:43 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Engineers do use supply to build. And I had thought that they use supply to repair a base. But (as best I recall) in a thread some months back my impression was corrected: supply is not used to repair a base. Alfred was among those who weighed in, IIRC.

There might be other reasons to keep your engineers out of combat mode (in rest mode they use less supply to "eat", or maybe they are less vulnerable to bombardment?), but apparently they will not use supply for the act of repairing the base.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 8:58:08 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

quote:

Operation Circus: John sent this in his email today: "With all those troops available from your pull out of Burma, I am working to figure where you will come from now. Been quite the exercise in thought and LOTS of movement accordingly. Sure bet your Intel has been lighting up over the couple of game weeks!" SigInt is quiet today.


Your opponent may be moving lots of units, but what size units is he moving? Are they adequate to defend against the force you will employ in Circus? Have his movements been in time to adequately shore up his defenses?


No, the quantity of the units isn't a concern yet and may not become one. The Allies will be moving in such concentrated strength that it would be hard for John to garrison adequately.



Should never be a real problem. You get a ton of independent Aussie Infantry brigades and battalions that can and should be broken down both for squads and devices. I used to think that three active Australian divisions in the field was the max you could sustain. But you can really field all of the Aussie divisions including rebuilding the units that may have been lost in early 1942. Really the only real issue with all Commonwealth units is devices, not so much squads. India as well has a lot of brigades you can disband.

_____________________________

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 9:20:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/18/43

Battle of Sumatra: No amphibious activity today. The Six Sisters and Two Brothers (BBs Ise and Yamashiro) hit Langsa.

John may be focusing on the Langsa vector instead of amphibious operations. He's changed the composition in the contested hex to the south, where there are now four IJA divisions and two engineer units. Opposing these are a US division and Indian division, and a US arty battalion and US tank battalion. This is jungle (x2) terrain and the infantry divisions have two forts (US) and three forts (Indian). There's potential for John to break through, but I don't think he has quite enough yet.

The Allies are shuffling around two divisions that ended up at the wrong bases for their prep (there were reasons for this, but too involved to explain). As of tomorrow, the divisions will be where they belong. At that point, the division prepped for Langsa will change from strat to combat and can then move forward to reinforce the contested hex.

No change on the west side of the island.

Operation Circus: Some important SigInt today that helps me better piece together the Japanese disposition in the Java/NewGuinea/New Britain arc that I'm watching so carefully. I love the "989 men-at-this-key-base" kind of SigInt. No SigInt of concern in the past four or five days. So things continue to look good. The most important item of information from this point forward will be knowing (or having a solid hunch) as to the KB's whereabouts. The most recent sighting of a major element was about three days ago near map's edge.

An Aussie motorized brigade just left Carnavon to march through the desert to Exmouth. She'll be supplied by Dakotas (I think that will work). SigInt shows a mixed brigade at Exmouth, so the idea is to time the arrival to coincide with the amphibious operations. Exmouth is one of the bases I'll target either early or while "backfilling."

Three Australian infantry units will be leaving Alice Springs enroute to Tennant Creek. The Allies have been bombing this base (and 90th Regiment) for months now. I think supply will be low and 90th able to put up only token resistance. Again, this will be timed to show up just after the amphibious operations are underway. I'd like to get this airfield for recon puproses. I already have the range to recon Darwin, but I'd like to be able to recon Broome, Derby and Timor when the time comes.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/29/2016 9:22:37 PM >

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 4764
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/29/2016 11:53:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/19/43

Battle of Sumtra: No enemy invasions. That's always the most important news now.

On the east side the Kongos hit Sabang. Enemy air hits Langsa and the troops in the contested hex to the south and the troops on the west side.

On the west side, two IJA divisions shock attack the picket RCT (60 AV) and the tank battalion (55 AV) and fail to dislodge the defenders. The tank battalion takes some losses, but this has to irritate the fool out of John. I think it'll get his blood up so that he'll reinforce and push the defenders back. But he's going nowhere on the west side while it still matters.

On the east side in the contested hex, he's bombarding. He'll try a deliberate attack soon, I think, unless he's awaiting reinfrocements.

Operation Circus: Lots of enemy subs feeling around Oz. Lots of enemy ships around New Guinea and the Solomons. I'd be concerned about Just in Time Reinforcements III, but this time I'm ready (if it happens, which I'm not at all sure it will). I think my preference would be to feint John out of position and instead reinforce Sumatra strongly. There would be poetry in that outcome if successful.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4765
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/1/2016 12:49:21 AM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

I think my preference would be to feint John out of position and instead reinforce Sumatra strongly. There would be poetry in that outcome if successful

Doesn't he have you pretty pinned down without the KB? He can't really take his attention off Sumatra. You have to go and if John goes the slow way the KB can go elsewhere. Sooooooo......can you pull the KB away without your carriers? If so can your carriers make a difference in Sumatra if the KB is gone for a bit?

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 4766
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/1/2016 1:02:08 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		I'm nearly positive that John can't shut down Sabang or maintain an embargo relying on just LBA. The Allied carriers, loaded up with fighters, and standing off, would tear up the LBA. Combat ships could then sprint from carrier protection to Sabang. And there are other ways of approaching it. It's not fullproof, but there's a way to do it. And I think John knows it. He has 12 zillion aircraft at Port Blair right now (and probably similar numbers at Sinabang and the Nocobars airfields, though I don't have recon on them). He's concerned. That's what I want. I want him hyped up on both sides so that when I spring the different feints, he's primed to react.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/1/2016 10:01:28 AM   
obvert


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Status: offline 		You may have mentioned it earlier but what is happening in China? Is it all part of the Co-Prosperity sphere now?

If so this does take a ton of pressure of of Japan in terms of troops to use and air groups to send to other theatres, as well as less supply usage necessary.



_____________________________

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Post #: 4768
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/1/2016 1:54:16 PM   
poodlebrain

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

I think my preference would be to feint John out of position and instead reinforce Sumatra strongly. There would be poetry in that outcome if successful

Doesn't he have you pretty pinned down without the KB? He can't really take his attention off Sumatra. You have to go and if John goes the slow way the KB can go elsewhere. Sooooooo......can you pull the KB away without your carriers? If so can your carriers make a difference in Sumatra if the KB is gone for a bit?

What role does the KB play in the Battle of Sumatra? In my view the KB is essential to the interdiction of sea lanes north and west of Sabang. As such they must operate within a limited geographic area. Remove them from that area, and the Allies can reinforce Sabang with an acceptable level of expected casualties.

The Japanese will face a tough decision if Operation Circus ceommences before they have won the Battle of Sumatra. Do they reduce their efforts around Sabang, and accept defeat in the Battle of Sumatra, or do they risk defeat elsewhere that makes the outcome of the Bettle of Sumatra meaningless? Going forward the Japanese will have to decide how best they can contain the Allies. Will they allow the Allies to develop Sabang as a base for future offensive operations, or will they allow one, or more, of the Circus targets to become a base for future offensive operations?

_____________________________

Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 4769
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/1/2016 6:48:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

You may have mentioned it earlier but what is happening in China? Is it all part of the Co-Prosperity sphere now?

If so this does take a ton of pressure of of Japan in terms of troops to use and air groups to send to other theatres, as well as less supply usage necessary.


Once John took Changsha (this was in 2013, before I went on sabbatical) and solidified a defensive line, he shut down operations in China. He has a long line in good terrain face by an equally long line of Chinese troops dug in in good terrain.

I haven't done anything to get John interested in China for a specific reason.

When the time comes for Circus to get underway, I want John's radar screen lit up all over the map. So at the same time that the Circus amphibious TFs and/or carriers will be sighted or come to John's attention, he's likewise going to see TFs (small ones, but he won't know at first) from India to Oz to CenPac to the Aleutians). Allied ground units will also make their presence known at forward positions, including China, Exmouth and Tennant Creek.

The idea is to suddenly give John alot of information to process. He'll know quickly which is real and which is feint, but by then even one day's uncertainty will count.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 4770
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