RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon

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All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> After Action Reports >> RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/9/2018 11:22:40 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

That's for the thought guys.

I sent the turn back with no comment to Mr Roper. He's very interested in the psychological portion of the game and in trying to rattle or alter the comfort level of an opponent, and I see multiple efforts to do this in game including things he knows have been commented on in the past in his own threads and others. He's sneaky, tough, unpredictable and carries a big hammer.

As for protecting the vital DEI/SRA oil bases and transport paths, this is somewhat beyond the capability of the IJN at this point in the war. I've got one CL/DD TF in theatre, currently trying to interdict a possible landing along the Burmese coastline. I will break off several ships to guard Palembang and Balikpapan.

My TBs did hit from 1k feet, 3 x 250kg bombs on a USN DD, so that part is possible if I can find them.

< Message edited by obvert -- 11/9/2018 4:22:55 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2551

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/9/2018 11:27:52 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: modrow

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
I get that. The HR is bothersome to me, but on the other hand it does feel like there is a distinct difference between 1 ship and 2+ ship TFs regarding detection. If not there wouldn't have been dozens of threads and posts about this over the years. I've strayed away form ever asking for an agreement on this as most players simply self-regulate their use.

Still eagerly reading and enjoying every post of yours :)

But I think in this one, it is important to bear in mind that much of the discussion of 1 ship TFs revolves around a different - one might perhaps even say opposite - issue, their use (or, depending on point of view abuse) as picket ships, which is possible because they are detected, even though I am not sure whether the search routine that applies is the same, and in addition the resulting fear that they may burn CV mission points that are spent. So you have to filter for threads that complain about 1 ship TFs because they are hard to detect. There may be those as well, but my subjective impression is that this is the minority by far.

Just my 2cts

Hartwig

Right. Pickets somehow I don't mind, unless of course they're intended as soakers in anticipation of a CV exchange, but usually as Loka points out those would be best as larger or more targetable TFs. Still I've never had a problem with them.

I think some of that is that players don't use 1 ship DD raiders often, for various reasons. Early it's probably that they're scarce and highly valued. Later, probably because (as allies) they're plentiful, and why have only one when you could use 5-8?

(The only reason as I see it is to avoid detection on deep raids).

< Message edited by obvert -- 11/9/2018 11:39:42 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/9/2018 11:32:32 AM

Bullwinkle58

Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I get that. The HR is bothersome to me, but on the other hand it does feel like there is a distinct difference between 1 ship and 2+ ship TFs regarding detection. If not there wouldn't have been dozens of threads and posts about this over the years. I've strayed away form ever asking for an agreement on this as most players simply self-regulate their use.

Going into the Wayback Machine here, memory-wise. There IS a difference in 1-ship TFs and 2-, 3-, 4-, etc. It's math. If Symon were involved in the algo he'd sure know it, since the Royal Navy, back in sailing frigate days, researched search patterns and came up with guidelines for frigate employment as they swept ahead searching for the battle line.

I read something long ago--maybe in B-school Quant Methods class, or in a game design article (I know Pac Man's designers considered the decision logic at the search intersections pretty carefully)--but somewhere I know I read about the math of search patterns with one and two searcher objects. Consider:

1. A one-ship TF. It has a circle of detection around it at all times. Let's say it's 10 miles. As it moves this area stays symmetric and only shrinks due to weather and time of day. Conversely, the searchers have this constant area to find. Whether they do is driven by a host of factors, such as sensors, altitude, speed, training, fatigue, etc.

2. A 2-ship TF, transiting. Assume they are identical ships in terms of top hamper (I haven't been able to work that phrase into a sentence in ten years!). smoke, length, paint, etc. They are on the same course and at same speed. Is the circle of detection 2x case #1? No. Each ship has a 10-mile circle around it, but, assuming they stay within flashing light/semaphore range, they are not 10-miles apart. The circles overlap. Detection probability is less than 2x.

3. A 2-ship TF, searching. This is the interesting case, and what you would find in the game with raiders, or even, I assume, any TF with Naval orders. This is interesting because the ships are maneuvering constantly, not on a steady course and speed. They still have the 10mile circle around each, but at each point of inflection, each course and speed change decision, each makes an independent decision. Ship A doesn't plow ahead while Ship B maneuvers. Each maneuvers at each decision. The prediction math gets pretty hairy over a time curve as I recall, but it's doable. Sometimes they may probabilistically be very close to each other with strong overlap, and in other cases the circles may cease to overlap, but leave a "barbell" of higher detection probability in between the two that depends on the decision made by an enemy searcher's maneuver decision inside that barbell.

So its not possible to say 100% of the time that a 2-ship TF is 2x more likely to be detected. It may be 20% more likely, or it may be 3x, or something else. But is IS possible to pretty firmly predict the 1-ship case.

I know the USN has procedures for SAR operations in how to set up the most efficient search patterns, especially when helos are available, as in man-overboard situations. I think they're computerized now, and rapidly executed. In the old days it was graph paper. Having 20 searchers instead of 2 can get hard really fast in terms of not missing a square.

But in terms of the game, I still think 1-ship TFs are and should be very hard to detect. If anything the game makes detection far too easy in RL terms in the furtherance of gameplay. My views on this vis a vis submarines are well known. But inserting an HR mandating at least 2-ships is, IMO, a patch on the real-world reality that requiring 2- isn't a panacea. And it, like all HRs, "gets into the business" of the opponent's assets, and I don't like that on philosophical grounds. I don't think you do either from your comments.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 11/9/2018 11:37:27 AM >

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/9/2018 12:09:02 PM

HansBolter

Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline

The Ironman AI uses single Japanese DD raider TFs all the time.

Its a standard tactic.

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/9/2018 1:39:57 PM

Lecivius

Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

There is no simple coding change for anything in AE.

Alfred

I may have to add this in my forum signature

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If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/9/2018 1:43:22 PM

tarkalak

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Joined: 6/26/2017
From: Bulgaria
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

There is no simple coding change for anything in AE.

Alfred

I may have to add this in my forum signature

You can remove in AE. Still true.

_____________________________

I do not know what is scarier: that I do understand nothing of this demonic script or that I am starting to see the demons that it evokes.

Me, studying for a PHD entry exam in Applied Mathematics.

(in reply to Lecivius)

Post #: 2556

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/9/2018 4:46:23 PM

inqistor

Posts: 1813
Joined: 5/12/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I was under the impression that System damage, that causes smoke, does raise DL, but I will concede it's quite a while since I read the DL manual section.

I hate 5that section.

I also suspect that (that's why I always return Submarines with over 10 SYS damage to port), and that fires help to detect ship at night, although there is nothing in manual about it.

Actually, I just checked that manual section, and it is clearly written, that during Recon missions only experience of pilot is used, even for increasing detection during bombing :)

(it also writes, that LCU in hex next to friendly unit have always detection greater than 0, but week ago I had exactly that situation, and base wasn't empty despite no report, and mouse-over of enemy units. My paratroopers learned hard way)

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 2557

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/9/2018 7:00:43 PM

Lokasenna

Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I get that. The HR is bothersome to me, but on the other hand it does feel like there is a distinct difference between 1 ship and 2+ ship TFs regarding detection. If not there wouldn't have been dozens of threads and posts about this over the years. I've strayed away form ever asking for an agreement on this as most players simply self-regulate their use.

The posts are actually, if we are talking about the same posts, about the 1-ship TFs being detected and attacked as damage sponges.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2558

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/9/2018 7:02:47 PM

Lokasenna

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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tarkalak

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

There is no simple coding change for anything in AE.

Alfred

I may have to add this in my forum signature

You can remove in AE. Still true.

I disagree.

Some coding changes are quite simple.

(in reply to tarkalak)

Post #: 2559

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/9/2018 7:03:20 PM

Lecivius

Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline

Sure.

The title banner, for example.

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/10/2018 3:43:53 PM

Lokasenna

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I mean, there are actually lots of code changes that are quite simple. Anything to do with an equation or boolean check, for example. Some special cases in some functions can be simple.

Honestly, all coding changes themselves are usually simple - it's the figuring out the architecture of them that takes time, and the more pieces of code that you touch the more likely it is that you trigger an unintended consequence.

(in reply to Lecivius)

Post #: 2561

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/12/2018 9:57:36 AM

tarkalak

Posts: 289
Joined: 6/26/2017
From: Bulgaria
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I mean, there are actually lots of code changes that are quite simple. Anything to do with an equation or boolean check, for example. Some special cases in some functions can be simple.

Honestly, all coding changes themselves are usually simple - it's the figuring out the architecture of them that takes time, and the more pieces of code that you touch the more likely it is that you trigger an unintended consequence.

Sure, there are simple code changes. However in a big enough program, or a system, you cannot be sure that there won't be side effects. Unless you check them and make sure that there aren't. That is usually not simple.

_____________________________

I do not know what is scarier: that I do understand nothing of this demonic script or that I am starting to see the demons that it evokes.

Me, studying for a PHD entry exam in Applied Mathematics.

(in reply to Lokasenna)

Post #: 2562

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/12/2018 11:51:08 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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Feb 20, 1945

On the 20th the Allies get a few hits in I wasn't expecting. He sends two DDs very deep into the SRA and gets to the tankers. They somehow got through dozens of search and strike planes, weren't detected at any point int eh previous turns, and made it into the most critical ports on map for fuel transport. Several tankers and escorts were sunk in and around both Balikpapan and Palembang.

This is the issue with single ship DD TFs and raiding in this particular instance. I did have day and night search, multiple over-lapping area of search and a few defending ships int he area (mostly Es which aren't a match for DD but at least I'd thought would deflect or engage and reduce ops and ammo before the tankers were hit).

I'm moving on and adding more planes, but also recalling (as I posted last turn I think) some ships from the Medan area that will race to the ports and provide some more strong deterrents. I've also added LR search into the areas around OZ to look for them before they're in rang of strike planes. Fingers crossed I can met this threat. The Allies have a lot of DDs, and if 10, or 20, or God forbid more, were all sent in this fahsion, it could stop the entire flow of fuel and resources from the SRA.

Over Hokkaido the air was a bit more equally contested, and the USN especially took a hit as a lot of Hellcats and Corsairs were used yet again. This may also reflect a lowered capacity of LBE to handle the sweeping around here after these many protracted battles. The Allies lose a number of 1E bombers over Bihoro and get to the IJ bombing of Allied troops to down 17 Peggy-T. As the troops are almost all to Bihoro now I'll switch to some sweeping and trying to bomb the Allies more effectively and get to any bleeding or LR CAPPing planes there.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 1, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Time Surface Combat, near Billiton at 52,91, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
SC Ch 20, Shell hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Toho Maru, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DD Redoubt

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 64% moonlight: 11,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 627 encounters mine field at Bihoro (123,51)

Allied Ships
DD Cogswell, Mine hits 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Hakodate at 119,53, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
TK Ryuei Maru, Shell hits 1
SC Ch 60, Shell hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DE Arrow, Shell hits 2

Allied Ships Reported to be Approaching!
Japanese TF suspends unloading operations and begins to get underway

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Palembang at 49,90, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Shonan Maru #2, Shell hits 2
PB Shonan Maru #6, Shell hits 1, heavy damage
PB Shonon Maru #10
PB Shonan Maru #17, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
TK Kyoko Maru
TK Mirii Maru
TK Toen Maru

Allied Ships
DD Redoubt

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 64% moonlight: 11,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 64,97, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Atsu Maru, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
xAK San Francisco Maru, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAK Tokusima Maru, Shell hits 43, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Le Triomphant

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 64% moonlight: 11,000 yards
Range closes to 11,000 yards...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 64,97, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
TK San Pedro Maru
TK Tatibana Maru
PB Syozui Maru, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
PB Tenzan Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
PB Choko Maru #5, Shell hits 17, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DD Le Triomphant

Allied Ships Reported to be Approaching!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Palembang at 48,91, Range 9,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Chitose Maru, Shell hits 4, on fire
AO Notoro, Shell hits 6, heavy fires

Allied Ships
DD Redoubt

Allied Ships Reported to be Approaching!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Bihoro at 123,51 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

246 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB Iowa
CA Chester, Shell hits 5
CL Pasadena, Shell hits 3
CL Santa Fe
DD Converse, Shell hits 1
DD Cogswell
DD Chevalier, Shell hits 2
DD Charrette
DD Bennett, Shell hits 2
DD Bache
DD Ammen

Japanese ground losses:
76 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 17
Port hits 1
Port supply hits 1

OS2U-3 Kingfisher acting as spotter for BB Iowa

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Hakodate at 119,53, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
LST T-113
LST T-114
LST T-115
LST T-132
LST T-142, Shell hits 1, heavy fires
ML G-306
ML G-422, Shell hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
ML G-425
ML G-432
ML G-435, Shell hits 1, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DE Arrow

Allied Ships Reported to be Approaching!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Palembang at 49,90, Range 17,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Shonan Maru #2
TK Kyoko Maru
TK Mirii Maru
TK Toen Maru

Allied Ships
DD Redoubt

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions: 28,000 yards
Range closes to 16,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 16,000 yards
Japanese TF attempts to evade combat
Range increases to 17,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 17,000 yards
Range increases to 17,000 yards...
Both Task Forces evade combat Phew!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 67,97, Range 20,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
E No.53
E No.68, Shell hits 1, on fire
E No.72, Shell hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
E No.112

Allied Ships
DD Le Triomphant

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions: 28,000 yards
Range closes to 28,000 yards...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bihoro , at 123,51

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 44 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 14
J2M5 Jack x 15
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 14
Ki-102b Randy x 11

Allied aircraft
F6F-5 Hellcat x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 1 destroyed
J2M5 Jack: 2 destroyed
Ki-102b Randy: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-5 Hellcat: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 61st Division, at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 42,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 12
N1K1-J George x 7
N1K2-J George x 3
N1K5-J George x 57
Ki-83 x 24
Ki-84r Frank x 62
Ki-100-II Tony x 8

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 11
F4U-1D Corsair x 9
F6F-5 Hellcat x 52

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 6 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 61st Division, at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 44,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 5
N1K5-J George x 53
Ki-83 x 24
Ki-84r Frank x 49

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 2
F4U-1D Corsair x 11
F6F-3 Hellcat x 9
F6F-5 Hellcat x 59

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 7 destroyed
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 2 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 5 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 7 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 61st Division, at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 46 NM, estimated altitude 40,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 33
Ki-83 x 23
Ki-84r Frank x 35

Allied aircraft
P-38L Lightning x 1
F4U-1D Corsair x 5
F6F-3 Hellcat x 1
F6F-5 Hellcat x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 5 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 61st Division, at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 23 NM, estimated altitude 38,900 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 26
Ki-83 x 17
Ki-84r Frank x 29

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 15
F6F-5 Hellcat x 28

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 5 destroyed
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 5 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 61st Division, at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 33 NM, estimated altitude 39,900 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K5-J George x 12
Ki-83 x 14
Ki-84r Frank x 21

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 14
F4U-1D Corsair x 3
F6F-5 Hellcat x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 2 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 112th Cavalry Regiment, at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 54

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 17
F6F-5 Hellcat x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy: 13 destroyed, 4 damaged

No Allied losses

Allied ground losses:
62 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
17 x Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
16 x Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bihoro , at 123,51

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 16 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 9
J2M5 Jack x 8
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 14
Ki-102b Randy x 1

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 18
SB2C-4 Helldiver x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 3 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 3 destroyed
Ki-102b Randy: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 4 destroyed, 2 damaged
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 1 destroyed by flak

Airbase supply hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x SB2C-4 Helldiver releasing from 10000' *
Airfield Attack: 1 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 77th Division, at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 26 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 10
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 19
P-51D Mustang x 17
F6F-3 Hellcat x 6
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 16
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 25
PV-1 Ventura x 50
PV-2 Harpoon x 11

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 5 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 6 damaged
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 11 damaged
PV-1 Ventura: 9 damaged
PV-1 Ventura: 1 destroyed by flak
PV-2 Harpoon: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
603 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 34 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 30 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 22 (3 destroyed, 19 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x PV-2 Harpoon bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 5th RF Gun Battalion, at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 23 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 63
B-25H Mitchell x 8
B-29-1 Superfort x 7
B-29-25 Superfort x 37
F6F-5 Hellcat x 1
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 10

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 17 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-29-1 Superfort: 6 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 7 damaged
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
853 casualties reported
Squads: 30 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 28 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 30 (8 destroyed, 22 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x PBJ-1J Mitchell bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Kushiro (123,53)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 57375 troops, 1167 guns, 2759 vehicles, Assault Value = 3920

Defending force 38442 troops, 256 guns, 59 vehicles, Assault Value = 212

Allied adjusted assault: 1691

Japanese adjusted defense: 81

Allied assault odds: 20 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
5496 casualties reported
Squads: 209 destroyed, 27 disabled
Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 127 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 18 disabled
Guns lost 56 (26 destroyed, 30 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
90 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 20 (1 destroyed, 19 disabled)

Assaulting units:
3rd USMC Tank Battalion
11th Airborne Div /1
4th USMC Tank Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion
2/4th Armoured Regiment
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
815th Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
767th Tank Battalion
XIV Corps Combat Engineer Regiment
716th Tank Battalion
112th Cavalry Regiment
775th Tank Battalion
37th (Sep) Infantry Rgt /6
96th Infantry Division
1st Filipino Inf Rgt /1
3rd Marine Division
1st USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
25th Infantry Division
31st Infantry Division
4th Armoured Brigade
38th Infantry Division
670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
44th Tank Battalion
2/6th Armoured Regiment
3rd Motor Brigade
12th NZ Bde /6
43rd Infantry Division
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
2nd Marine Division
II Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
I Corps Cmbt Engineer Regiment
37th Infantry Div /1
5th Australian Div /9
544th Field Artillery Battalion
47th Coastal Artillery Regiment
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
XIV Corps Artillery
17th NZ AA Bde
8th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
33rd Medium Regiment
189th USAAF Base Force
I Corps Artillery
225th Field Artillery Battalion
IX Corps Artillery
27th USN Naval Construction Regiment
738th Coast AA Regiment
694th Field Artillery Battalion
154th FA Bn
12th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
147th Field Artillery Regiment
III US Amphib Corps
85/88/98th Mortar Rgt /3

Defending units:
8th Division
58th Ind.Mixed Brigade
38th Division
49th Ind.Mixed Brigade
13th JAAF Base Force
Kure 7th SNLF
17th Naval Construction Battalion
56th Ind.Mixed Brigade
4th Air Army
49th Cavalry Regiment
1st Recon Regiment
Yangtze SNLF
51st Base Force
14th Naval Guard Unit
27th Special Base Force
33rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
63rd JAAF AF Bn
Ichiki Det. /1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Bihoro (123,51)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 13551 troops, 73 guns, 66 vehicles, Assault Value = 1265

Defending force 52970 troops, 784 guns, 425 vehicles, Assault Value = 663

Allied ground losses:
510 casualties reported
Squads: 29 destroyed, 26 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Assaulting units:
37th Infantry Div /12
1st Marine Division
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
5th Marine Division
58th (Sep) Infantry Rgt /9
81st Infantry Div /8

Defending units:
19th Tank Regiment
28th Division
7th Division
53rd Ind.Mixed Bde /2
57th Ind.Mixed Brigade
50th Ind.Mixed Brigade
Combined 8th SNLF
14th Ind.Mixed Rgt /2
7th Medium Mortar Battalion
5th Area Army
177th JAAF AF Bn
4th Medium Mortar Battalion
25th RF Gun Battalion
37th Ind. Engr Rgt /1
35th Army
5th RF Gun Battalion
6th Medium Mortar Battalion
2nd RF Gun Battalion
12th Field AF Construction Battalion
61st Division
5th Medium Mortar Battalion
27th Army
5th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
12th RF Gun Battalion
27th Air Flotilla
6th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
77th JAAF AF Bn
1st Base Force
23rd RF Gun Battalion
58th Field AA Battalion
22nd Ind. Engineer Regiment
7th Area Army /2
6th Ind.Infantry Bde /2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to tarkalak)

Post #: 2563

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/12/2018 3:42:52 PM

Bullwinkle58

Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

I don't know what's in the surface intercept combat algo, but I'd guess that speed is a top variable. If you're trying to stop 35 kt. DDs with 15-20 kt. surface defenders it's not going to go well very often unless you can "wave" them with defenders. PTs better I'd think. At this point your surface cupboard is pretty bare, so you may just have to go with "do the best you can."

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2564

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/12/2018 9:03:33 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I don't know what's in the surface intercept combat algo, but I'd guess that speed is a top variable. If you're trying to stop 35 kt. DDs with 15-20 kt. surface defenders it's not going to go well very often unless you can "wave" them with defenders. PTs better I'd think. At this point your surface cupboard is pretty bare, so you may just have to go with "do the best you can."

I get a lot of Es. I was hoping any raiders would hit the Es first. Then miss out on the tankers.

All MTBs reserved for the HI. The cupboard is very bare.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2565

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/12/2018 9:23:26 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Feb 21, 1945

Interesting. I think Dan sent a scouting party to assess the defenses at Hakodate. Wouldn't have wanted to be in that PT flotilla. All six go under after running though a minefield and being used for night target practice by the Fortress guns.

One of the Bihoro bombardments also takes eom decent shots against the old BBs. Nice!

A decent day in the air. His forward CAP at Kushiro? About 9 old first gen Corsairs and a 28 plane group of FM-2. The little buggers are tough, but we still got better than 2-1 on the day and bombed nearby troops. If that is Kushiro's CAP, I'm very curious about Allied pools now.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 21, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Naval Gun Fire at Hakodate - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

73 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
PT-378, Shell hits 4, Mine hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
PT-363, Shell hits 1, heavy damage
PT-349, Shell hits 4, Mine hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
PT-316, Shell hits 3, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PT-315, Shell hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PT-314, Shell hits 3, Mine hits 2, heavy damage

Hakodate Fortress firing at PT-378
Massive explosion on PT-378

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Bihoro at 123,51 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

92 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB Arkansas
CL St. Louis
DD Wren
DD Wedderburn, Shell hits 1
DD Walker
DD Thatcher
DD Chauncey
DD Bush

Japanese ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 5
Runway hits 25
Port hits 2
Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 1

Combined 8th SNLF firing at BB Arkansas
BB Arkansas firing at Combined 8th SNLF
OS2U-3 Kingfisher acting as spotter for CL St. Louis
CL St. Louis firing at Combined 8th SNLF
Combined 8th SNLF firing at CL St. Louis
DD Wren firing at Bihoro
DD Wedderburn firing at Combined 8th SNLF
Combined 8th SNLF firing at DD Wedderburn
DD Walker firing at 28th Division
DD Thatcher firing at 28th Division
DD Chauncey firing at 28th Division
DD Bush firing at Bihoro

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Bihoro at 123,51 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

186 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB New York, Shell hits 18
BB Tennessee, Shell hits 17
CL Honolulu, Shell hits 1
DD Downes, Shell hits 1
DD Flusser, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Mahan
DD Ingraham
DD Bell

Japanese ground losses:
82 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 14
Port hits 5
Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 4

Combined 8th SNLF firing at BB New York

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Kushiro , at 123,53

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 90 NM, estimated altitude 41,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 19

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 28
F4U-1 Corsair x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F4U-1 Corsair: 2 destroyed

CAP engaged:
VBF-5 with FM-2 Wildcat (4 airborne, 10 on standby, 14 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 6000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 34700.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes
VMF-311 with F4U-1 Corsair (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 4 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters between 5000 and 36800.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 12 minutes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 3rd NZ Armoured Sqn , at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 19 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 5
N1K1-J George x 9
N1K2-J George x 1
N1K5-J George x 19
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 2
Ki-49-IIa Helen x 27
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 18
Ki-84r Frank x 74

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 24 (1 destroyed, 23 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 2nd NZ Brigade, at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 9
N1K5-J George x 35
Ki-49-IIa Helen x 27
Ki-83 x 20
Ki-84r Frank x 76

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
79 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 16 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 2nd NZ Brigade, at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 11 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 6
N1K2-J George x 1
N1K5-J George x 35
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 27
Ki-83 x 10
Ki-84r Frank x 84

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
70 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x Ki-49-IIb Helen bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Kushiro , at 123,53

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 33 NM, estimated altitude 45,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 27

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 20
F4U-1 Corsair x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 3 destroyed
F4U-1 Corsair: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x Ki-83 sweeping at 41530 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bihoro , at 123,51

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 75 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 32 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 39
F-6D Mustang x 4
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 5
P-51D Mustang x 4
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 6
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 9
PV-1 Ventura x 26

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 16 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 4 damaged
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 5 damaged
PV-1 Ventura: 15 damaged
PV-1 Ventura: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
211 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 6

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 112th Cavalry Regiment, at 123,52 , near Kushiro

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 36
J1N1-Sa Irving x 4
N1K1-J George x 8
N1K5-J George x 15
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 49
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 27
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 18
Ki-83 x 20
Ki-84r Frank x 74

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 3
F4U-1 Corsair x 1

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed

Allied ground losses:
56 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 18 (5 destroyed, 13 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
18 x Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Kushiro (123,53)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 67889 troops, 1203 guns, 2928 vehicles, Assault Value = 3997

Defending force 27019 troops, 170 guns, 15 vehicles, Assault Value = 54

Allied adjusted assault: 2019

Japanese adjusted defense: 43

Allied assault odds: 46 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2423 casualties reported
Squads: 221 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 19 destroyed, 159 disabled
Engineers: 12 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 56 (43 destroyed, 13 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
116 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)

Assaulting units:
775th Tank Battalion
37th Infantry Div /1
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
44th Tank Battalion
2/4th Armoured Regiment
670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
XIV Corps Combat Engineer Regiment
3rd Marine Division
4th Armoured Brigade
3rd USMC Tank Battalion
1st USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
11th Airborne Div /1
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
38th Infantry Division
112th Cavalry Regiment
4th USMC Tank Battalion
767th Tank Battalion
37th (Sep) Infantry Rgt /6
1st Filipino Inf Rgt /1
25th Infantry Division
815th Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
716th Tank Battalion
12th NZ Bde /6
3rd Motor Brigade
II Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
43rd Infantry Division
31st Infantry Division
96th Infantry Division
I Corps Cmbt Engineer Regiment
2/6th Armoured Regiment
2nd Marine Division
192nd Tank Battalion
5th Australian Div /9
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
I Corps Artillery
225th Field Artillery Battalion
33rd Medium Regiment
IX Corps Artillery
738th Coast AA Regiment
17th NZ AA Bde
694th Field Artillery Battalion
154th FA Bn
XIV Corps Artillery
8th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
III US Amphib Corps
27th USN Naval Construction Regiment
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
47th Coastal Artillery Regiment
544th Field Artillery Battalion
189th USAAF Base Force
147th Field Artillery Regiment
12th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
85/88/98th Mortar Rgt /3

Defending units:
8th Division
38th Division
58th Ind.Mixed Brigade
49th Ind.Mixed Brigade
27th Special Base Force
4th Air Army
63rd JAAF AF Bn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 123,52 (near Kushiro)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 596 troops, 20 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 108

Defending force 3754 troops, 55 guns, 16 vehicles, Assault Value = 22

Assaulting units:
763rd Tank Battalion
2nd NZ Bde /9
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
112th Cavalry Rgt /6

Defending units:
3rd Amphibious Brigade
7th Base Force
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is the scene. The DS has moved away somewhere. Some troops are still being unloaded in the clear, some ships at Kushiro. Might just set some strikes and let em fly!

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2566

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/13/2018 12:44:00 AM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline

Any chance of getting heavier CD guns into Hokkaido? Where's the Wake CD unit at? The 12cm and 12.7cm stuff doesn't really cut it IMO.

Looking at it, it's a clear hex in easy LRCAP range from several bases and close to the major Allied bases. I'd have a train of bombardment task forces en-route.

Wakkiani has a modest CD fortress, ditto Muroran and Hakodate (a pair of 30cm guns, niiiice). That just leaves Sapporo and Bihoro to cover, and safe bet they'll be bombarded at some point in the next few weeks.

Bigger CD guns won't win the war, but it can translate to damage. That means more time and clicks for him to get damaged ships repairing and that means less time for the important stuff.

Plus, CD guns are one of the few instances where Japan can inflict shipping losses with minimal risk of losses or interdiction from the Allies.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2567

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/13/2018 1:00:11 AM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Where's the Wake CD unit at?

The Hong Kong CD unit is also not static and can be moved into theater.

_____________________________

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Post #: 2568

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/13/2018 9:59:22 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Any chance of getting heavier CD guns into Hokkaido? Where's the Wake CD unit at? The 12cm and 12.7cm stuff doesn't really cut it IMO.

Looking at it, it's a clear hex in easy LRCAP range from several bases and close to the major Allied bases. I'd have a train of bombardment task forces en-route.

The Wake unit is on the Kuriles and a split of it is at Ominato already. When the rest either runs out of supply and evaporates or is bombed/attacked into submission, the saved portion will flesh out. As is there are a few 8cm guns in the fragment. I'm leaving this on Honshu as I think the next major invasion may take place there rather than on Hokkaido.

The only other mobile big gun CD unit is at Bihoro, with 14cm guns. I'm mostly interested in making him pay for landings, especially the repeated daily ones intended to cause auto-bombardments. The DP guns of the large base forces are also good AA cover, so I've been moving two more of those to Bihoro. The 12cm DP guns aren't brilliant, but soon there will be ~32 of them, and ~60 of the 8cm guns there. I'm hoping quantity has a quality of its own here.

quote:

Wakkiani has a modest CD fortress, ditto Muroran and Hakodate (a pair of 30cm guns, niiiice). That just leaves Sapporo and Bihoro to cover, and safe bet they'll be bombarded at some point in the next few weeks.

Wakkanai is in Allied hands now, as is Kushiro. Hakodate is pretty tough, with the 2 x 30cm but also 10 x 15cm guns. I'd like to see a fleet move through that!
Muroran is at least defended somewhat by the 2 x 15cm and 2 x 10cm DP there, but I'll probably now push more CD/DP guns there. Sapporo has some 20 12cm DP guns but none of the dedicated CD units. It does have forts 9 though. Bihoro is at forts 8, which seems to be helping a bit against the recent bombardments and air strikes, even though it's a clear hex.

quote:

Bigger CD guns won't win the war, but it can translate to damage. That means more time and clicks for him to get damaged ships repairing and that means less time for the important stuff.

Plus, CD guns are one of the few instances where Japan can inflict shipping losses with minimal risk of losses or interdiction from the Allies.

I've already seen some bombardments take good hits at Bihoro, and if this is going to be the battleground up next, I at least know it's got the best available right now.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

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Post #: 2569

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/13/2018 10:01:03 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Where's the Wake CD unit at?

The Hong Kong CD unit is also not static and can be moved into theater.

It has only the army guns though, not dedicated CD guns. Still they could be useful and that is a good unit to get out of there and into action where it counts right now. [EDIT] I just noticed it's also [R] and can't be bought out.

If he army arty will fire at incoming landings, there are ample large guns already in situ all over Hokkaido, but especially concentrated at Bihoro. I've seen them do it occasionally, but unpredictably.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 11/13/2018 10:08:00 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2570

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/13/2018 10:10:01 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Also, here is the air loss report from the previous turn. Getting back to where I want it; about equal and quite bloody, with lots of USN airframes lost.

Attachment (1)

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"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2571

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/13/2018 11:38:46 AM

inqistor

Posts: 1813
Joined: 5/12/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Where's the Wake CD unit at?

The Hong Kong CD unit is also not static and can be moved into theater.

It has only the army guns though, not dedicated CD guns. Still they could be useful and that is a good unit to get out of there and into action where it counts right now. [EDIT] I just noticed it's also [R] and can't be bought out.

If he army arty will fire at incoming landings, there are ample large guns already in situ all over Hokkaido, but especially concentrated at Bihoro. I've seen them do it occasionally, but unpredictably.

IJA Infantry Squad 43? I thought it it Scenario 1 game. There are no numbers in Japanese Squads in this Scenario.

Anyway, what have you done with those gigantic guns in Korea? I think they are actually mortars, with short range, but there are some 32cm monsters there.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2572

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/13/2018 11:54:36 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: inqistor

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Where's the Wake CD unit at?

The Hong Kong CD unit is also not static and can be moved into theater.

It has only the army guns though, not dedicated CD guns. Still they could be useful and that is a good unit to get out of there and into action where it counts right now. [EDIT] I just noticed it's also [R] and can't be bought out.

If he army arty will fire at incoming landings, there are ample large guns already in situ all over Hokkaido, but especially concentrated at Bihoro. I've seen them do it occasionally, but unpredictably.

IJA Infantry Squad 43? I thought it it Scenario 1 game. There are no numbers in Japanese Squads in this Scenario.

Anyway, what have you done with those gigantic guns in Korea? I think they are actually mortars, with short range, but there are some 32cm monsters there.

Some of those army guns are on Hokkaido, some on Honshu, some in Burma holding the lines there. There are both 30cm and 24cm howitzers and 32cm mortars. I'll show a bombardment this nextt coming turn that demonstrates their capacity when well fortified!

I've always seen upgrades to infantry playing stock Scen 1. Not sure what you're referring to. Most of my troops are now IJA 43, but that upgrade I think also reduces squad size, so overall AV goes down? Anyway, I just let em upgrade and go for it except for a few key units that have some devices I want to keep in play, like the few 40mm AA guns in base forces and some other units.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 11/14/2018 10:21:34 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2573

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/14/2018 10:32:07 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Here is a shot of the invasion TFs loitering off the Burmese coastline. This cat and mouse began about a week ago, and I get the feeling something may happen actually, but he wants to feel out and then nullify as much of the Japanese response as possible.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2574

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/14/2018 11:12:21 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

This is a shot of the North. The highlighted hex shows a group of amphibs heading NE out of the Kushiro/Hokkaido area.

Not nearly as many ships at Shikuka these days. I think he liberated a bunch back for more supplies, etc, and also a lot have been in use. Still a good fighter CAP, but I'll look to explore this soon and see what the makeup of those fighters is at this stage.

Kushiro and surrounding areas will be the targets of strikes next turn. I'll sweep the few fighters at Kushiro, but also at Etorofu, to try and clear the air, hoping the DS stays away.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2575

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/14/2018 11:22:05 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Feb 22, 1945

I'll do two posts here for this turn. This will start out in Burma where the action has begun to intensify again. There are a lot of Allied troops backed up here and waiting to break through the lines if allowed (or freed by a landing in a forward location).

There is still a threat of landing with ships hovering out around Port Blair and a CV TF moving in toward the Burmese/Malayan coastline. It's only showing 52 fighters, so if this is it there is a lot of opportunity to hit the landing. I've got several bases loaded up ready to go, and some first kamis ready as well!

We all know Dan is famous for false starts and misdirection. This could be simply to lead more resources South. In fact I've only used training groups, and now that the dedicated training groups are going en masse my training is actually much more thorough than a month ago. So this frees up a lot of planes to use.

I'll keep some search going around the perimeter, but if this is the real thing I will look forward to seeing it get in close.

The allies tried a few bombardments that didn't go so well this last turn. The heavy 30cm guns at Rangoon actually completely destroyed a unit there in counter-bombardment!

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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 22, 1945
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Ground combat at Rangoon (54,53)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 4275 troops, 216 guns, 136 vehicles, Assault Value = 6370

Defending force 133126 troops, 1286 guns, 707 vehicles, Assault Value = 3321

Japanese ground losses:
129 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
427 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 21 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 52 (30 destroyed, 22 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

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Ground combat at 56,53 (near Pegu)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 285 troops, 22 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 3823

Defending force 68915 troops, 683 guns, 712 vehicles, Assault Value = 1987

Allied ground losses:
32 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 13 (5 destroyed, 8 disabled)

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Ground combat at Pegu (55,53)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 9780 troops, 268 guns, 433 vehicles, Assault Value = 3368

Defending force 109594 troops, 1054 guns, 597 vehicles, Assault Value = 2690

Japanese ground losses:
215 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
9 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 14 (4 destroyed, 10 disabled)
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Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2576

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/14/2018 5:13:17 PM

inqistor

Posts: 1813
Joined: 5/12/2010
Status: offline

Are you planning night Port Attack at Shikuka? With over 100 ships there, it will be hard to not hit something. Although you may want to use armored bombers for the task.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I've always seen upgrades to infantry playing stock Scen 1. Not sure what you're referring to. Most of my troops are now IJA 43, but that upgrade I think also reduces squad size, so overall AV goes down?

When I open Scenario 1 in editor, there are 3 different IJA Infantry Squads, and none have year shown. Take a look, Device 710 is exactly upgrade to Device 709, and they have exactly the same name, without 43. This whole upgrade simply causes Squad to lose 2 points of Anti-Soft, and gaining nothing else, so this is actually waste of supply.

I reinstalled WITPAE some time ago, but it is correctly patched up to beta, and I'm pretty sure new Andy's Scenarios also didn't have IJA 43. Weird.

Attachment (1)

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2577

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/14/2018 5:42:40 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
I'll keep some search going around the perimeter, but if this is the real thing I will look forward to seeing it get in close.

Indeed! The JFB in me salivates at the opportunity to savage a 1945 invasion on a shoestring such as this one. The location of the Death Star is effectively known. What CVE or other CAP coverage could this group have for the trip in? On a related note, where are your Peggy (T) groups right now?

_____________________________

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 2578

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/14/2018 6:33:28 PM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline

@ inqistor.

Looks like you don't have the database updates.

Device 710 is the IJA Inf Squad '43.

It's smaller, but has 25 Anti-armor (versus 5 of the normal IJA Inf Squad) and 20 Anti Soft (versus 22 of the normal IJA squad).

Well worth the upgrade.

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 2579

RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 11/14/2018 7:36:49 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
I'll keep some search going around the perimeter, but if this is the real thing I will look forward to seeing it get in close.

Indeed! The JFB in me salivates at the opportunity to savage a 1945 invasion on a shoestring such as this one. The location of the Death Star is effectively known. What CVE or other CAP coverage could this group have for the trip in? On a related note, where are your Peggy (T) groups right now?

It's probably any Brit CV/CVL/CVE that have arrived in the last 5-6 months. A lot of CVEs and some CVLs arrive if I remember correctly. I'm sure if he had a few good CVs they would go to the North.

The majority of Peggy-T are in the North, with about 100 flying today to hit Alied troops without any AA cover.

There is one group down South, which I've just converted into my first kami unit of the game! I would have kept them with TT but there are limited bases allowing TT here due to HQ placement and supply, so I've had to pick and choose to make sue I'vve got enough coverage on certain vectors and also that I'm as far out of bombing range as possible.Saigon has some Bettys with Oscars. Georgetown has the kami Peggy-T and a TB group. Taiping has some DBs. Pratchup has more TBs. Chumpon has Frances and there are more Frances at Pisanoluke.

He's been dancing around trying to find my range and draw a strike for one a week now. I've got it dialled back and will just wait until the whole mess comes in close enough. Fingers crossed.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 2580

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