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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

 
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/8/2019 8:33:54 PM   
mind_messing

 

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Joined: 10/28/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The relevant section is quoted here :"A kamikaze plane which hits gets only 1 single hit, not multiple hits to reflect ordnance + fuel + mass. The damage inflicted (don't forget there are always die rolls in Grigsby algorithms) is determined from the type of hit which is abstracted. There is no differentiation made between different aircraft models of the same aircraft type. Except for determining the type of abstracted hit to be applied, aircraft models without a bomb are not discriminated against compared to those aircraft models of the same aircraft type with a bomb. "


Now it could well be the fact that there are some planes that carry the SAP and that is a bug/or code never finished/ or a mistake...in which case Alfred's statement comes closer to being accurate...but still there is no way a Ki115 is equivalent to a Sonia despite being both classified as light bombers.





I suspect it's to model the ad hoc nature of kamikaze payloads as the war progressed. IJ ground crew were not considering what payload would be optimum in the late war, simply bolting on whatever they had to hand. Some planes even involved repurposed oil drums. In that case it makes sense for planes to be using GP bombs, as there's likely to be a greater stockpile of them rather than more specialized anti-shipping weapons.

Of course, it's a possibility that it was an oversight given how there's upgraded torpedoes and such that are never used in-game, but I'm not so sure.

As for the observable difference between GP and AP, I'm at a loss as to how to explain it, given that GP bombs with their higher effect should cause more damage than AP bombs (assuming no armour soaks the damage)...

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2821
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/8/2019 9:04:44 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


As for the observable difference between GP and AP, I'm at a loss as to how to explain it, given that GP bombs with their higher effect should cause more damage than AP bombs (assuming no armour soaks the damage)...


Here is my guess, that the SAP kamikazes trigger more secondary damage messages. Sys damage is only slightly higher against cargo ships, but the flooding, engineer and fires is substantially higher.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 2822
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 2:45:32 AM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


...Sorry, for clarification I was meaning in the sense that if it's impossible to control bombload, then why bother? I was meaning with the Nate in the spirit of Alfred's comment regarding kamikaze attacks in Mike's AAR - http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4534455

The Nate example was to illustrate that kamikaze attacks rarely discomfort large Allied warships, but can be fatal to the softer-skinned ships. I've spent some time thinking about this, and in my view the issue is that in that most IJ players have expectations of the Franklin as the norm, when it really wasn't. A quick look at the list of ships sunk by kamikaze reveals lots of destroyers, cargos and LST's. Attacking those ships with AP or SAP is illogical as you're wanting a bigger boom, in game terms the device with more effect and less penetration.

The fact that damage correlates to plane class is from Alfred - http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4534617

The relevant section is quoted here :"A kamikaze plane which hits gets only 1 single hit, not multiple hits to reflect ordnance + fuel + mass. The damage inflicted (don't forget there are always die rolls in Grigsby algorithms) is determined from the type of hit which is abstracted. There is no differentiation made between different aircraft models of the same aircraft type. Except for determining the type of abstracted hit to be applied, aircraft models without a bomb are not discriminated against compared to those aircraft models of the same aircraft type with a bomb. "

Based on Alfred's comments, I suspect it would be hard to get even a standard measure of damage from kamikaze hits, given the large number of variables and the "Grigsby Constant" involved.

Hit rates being tied to speed


I have emphasised the relevant comments which are being overlooked. Together with the earlier comments quoted by Mike Solli, the key points about Kamikazes are being largely overlooked in favour of this dog chasing his tail fixation on bomb load.

1. Ordnance for missions is determined by the code. What is the point about fretting over it if the player has no control.

2. The key significant feature of the Kamikaze mission which separates it from all other air missions is that you are guaranteed a 100% loss of all airframes and pilots. Any other mission type has a loss rate within the range of 0-100%. This alters substantially the ROI metrics as the cost of launching a Kamikaze mission is so much more expensive.

3. For a non Kamikaze mission, with it's much lower cost, the damage inflicted per individual hit is a more relevant ROI metric than the number of hits achieved. This is completely reversed for a Kamikaze mission. It is logistical profligacy of the highest order to expend 200 Kamikaze airframes and pilots to achieve a single hit irrespective of the ordnance delivered when the expenditure of the same quantum of airframes/pilots in multiple non Kamikaze missions can result in many more hits inflicting cumulatively much more damage even if using lesser quality ordnance.

4. For Kamikazes the only relevant factor which a player can realistically influence is to increase the odds of getting a kamikaze hit. Mike Solli quoted what is relevant in this regard.

5. IRL damage from a kamikaze hit could result from (a) ordnance, (b) mass, or (c) fuel. One, two or all three elements could generate significant damage from the same plane, or none of them could inflict any worthwhile damage. In AE there are no multiple hits from a single kamikaze plane. It is all abstracted down to a single hit which causes damage determined from the availability of the three IRL damage sources.

6. You are all making a serious mistake in believing that there is a rigid hierarchy of order in the source of damage from a kamikaze. What is the point of fretting over whether a plane deployed with GP or SAP ordnance if the damage resulting from it's hit was not sourced from it's ordnance.

Alfred

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 2823
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 3:54:39 AM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred
What is the point of fretting over whether a plane deployed with GP or SAP ordnance if the damage resulting from it's hit was not sourced from it's ordnance.

Alfred


Because in over 200 sample runs, those bombers that carry the SAP significantly outperform the damage from planes carrying the GP. Plain and simple. Not once has the gp bomb carrying kamikazes out performed equivalent SAP carrying kamikazes.

I have no doubt what you reference is how the developers wanted the game to run, but it is not how it actually works for whatever reason.

From testing the bomb damage, I also saw a correlation between getting hits and speed of the kamikaze plane against heavy ship flak and also learned how to actually use the Ohka.

I think these are all important lessons for any Japanese player that actually reaches the game stage of using Kamikazes.





< Message edited by Lowpe -- 2/9/2019 3:58:14 AM >

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 2824
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 7:04:19 AM   
Alfred

 

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Status: offline 		1.  I've already stated that speed is important in getting through Allied CAP/flak to get the kamikaze plane into position to generate a hit.  There is no connection between speed and the size of the "boom" from the hit.

2.  Where is your evidence that the damage inflicted is sourced from the ordnance itself.  You are making that assumption.

3.  The logic of your position is that only IJN ships equipped with the 18.1in/45T94 Gun device should be used because it inflicts, by far, far more than any 800kg SAP bomb, the most damage.  That being so the Yamato class is by definition the best combatant.  Of course no weight is given to the cost of fuel and ammo, length of time to fix any damage received with the consequent out of play time component.  Yes the Kongo class is worthless because it carries such small armament in comparison.  Let alone any of the IJN cruiser and destroyer classes, ban them from any combat is the logical conclusion.

Alfred

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2825
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 11:17:21 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

1.  I've already stated that speed is important in getting through Allied CAP/flak to get the kamikaze plane into position to generate a hit.  There is no connection between speed and the size of the "boom" from the hit.

2.  Where is your evidence that the damage inflicted is sourced from the ordnance itself.  You are making that assumption.

3.  The logic of your position is that only IJN ships equipped with the 18.1in/45T94 Gun device should be used because it inflicts, by far, far more than any 800kg SAP bomb, the most damage.  That being so the Yamato class is by definition the best combatant.  Of course no weight is given to the cost of fuel and ammo, length of time to fix any damage received with the consequent out of play time component.  Yes the Kongo class is worthless because it carries such small armament in comparison.  Let alone any of the IJN cruiser and destroyer classes, ban them from any combat is the logical conclusion.

Alfred


While you can provide the info, we also want t see actual results to confirm how it works in game. This is sometimes different than what would be assumed, or what was designed. This can be confirmed by the evidence of the massive amount of post-design support and tweaks that have gone into the current versions of the game most players are using.

So. We are not fretting. We are curious, and we want to learn more. What is the point in discouraging that if it achieves unexpected insights and new possibilities?

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 2826
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 12:16:16 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

1.  I've already stated that speed is important in getting through Allied CAP/flak to get the kamikaze plane into position to generate a hit.  There is no connection between speed and the size of the "boom" from the hit.


Two questions, the first because I want to ensure I understand and the second because I'm nosey.

- When you say CAP/flak, do you mean that airspeed plays in to evading both CAP and flak fire?

- Does this apply only in the context of kamikaze strikes or does it apply to conventional attacks also?

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 2827
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 1:15:04 PM   
Lowpe


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Status: offline 		Alfred,

Point 1. Yes, you mentioned it, but it is nice to see confirmation in actual game play.

Point 2. Posted here, edit: upon reflection revised see post 2830.

Point 3. Is over my head, I don't understand it.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 2/9/2019 1:23:57 PM >

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 2828
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 1:17:15 PM   
Lowpe


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Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Here is one showing the better number of hits with a faster plane, and I also broke down and watched the replay for this one to count the penetrating hits.






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 2/9/2019 1:18:19 PM >

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2829
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 1:21:21 PM   
Lowpe


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Status: offline 		In thinking about it more, perhaps you are correct Alfred in that a torpedo bomber does more damage than a level bomber whether it has one or two engines or SAP vs GP and the same would hold true for a torpedo bomber vs fighter comparison.



(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2830
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 1:49:20 PM   
Lowpe


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Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Well, obviously same class planes do different damage. I am absolutely willing to concede the fact that it isn't the bomb load, but it is something!




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2831
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 5:17:15 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is one showing the better number of hits with a faster plane, and I also broke down and watched the replay for this one to count the penetrating hits.





Well, there are other factors here as well. To test this one about speed I think you'd have to use a non-armorer plane in both cases, a slow DB like the Val, or LB like the early Sonia, then fast versions, like the Judy for DB and Toka for LB.

I bet the manoeuvre of the A6M plays a factor as well, since its much better than the Jill.

I guess you could try a Jean and a Jill, too.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2832
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 5:18:08 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Well, obviously same class planes do different damage. I am absolutely willing to concede the fact that it isn't the bomb load, but it is something!



This is very interesting with the Judy and Val. Worth checking that out much more.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2833
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 5:59:49 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline 		I suspect that there's just a supremely high degree of randomness in the rolls for kamikaze attack planes.

In a real-world comparison, it makes sense. You've the CVE St. Lo, which was lost to a single kamikaze to the CA Australia, which had five kamis hit her over a few days without much real damage.

I think there's not much value in testing against heavily armoured warships such as CA and up, given that kamikaze effectiveness was greatest when targeted towards thin-skinned transports.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2834
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 7:39:18 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I suspect that there's just a supremely high degree of randomness in the rolls for kamikaze attack planes.

In a real-world comparison, it makes sense. You've the CVE St. Lo, which was lost to a single kamikaze to the CA Australia, which had five kamis hit her over a few days without much real damage.

I think there's not much value in testing against heavily armoured warships such as CA and up, given that kamikaze effectiveness was greatest when targeted towards thin-skinned transports.



I'd assume that the single samples Lowpe included were the average or the "norm" found over the much larger sample size of the tests. He indicated it would take a lot of work to post the full results.

If those are the "norm" then I think it's incredibly valuable to test armoured ships. There are big differences in those results, and ultimately, if they work against the armoured ships, they'll work just fine against anything else too.



< Message edited by obvert -- 2/9/2019 7:40:54 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 2835
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 11:32:41 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		May 3, 1945

The 3rd saw a bit more action as the Allies finally show some intent with the big mob. They're vectoring up toward Okinawa, and they land at Kume-Jima with a small force. It's the only empty base nearby, so I need to try something to kick them off quickly. I've got some glider paras at Chichi-Jima, which is just in range using Emily patrols to transport and drop them. If the allies get one base this close in they can use it to replenish nd as a home base for ships to range from (and run to after a combat).

I have no illusion that I can hold anything here if he wants to really invade, so we'll just hope this was an opportunity landing.

Air strikes took out a plethora of small gun/rocket landing craft being used to screen the Allied fleet. I sent in two DDs that did make it through and sank four xAKs plus attracting some small naval strikes that were crushed by LR CAP.

Will the Allies go for Okinawa?

Up North P-47N swept Hakodate and had surprisingly poor results. I think the Japanese actually won this battle, with about 80 P-47N lost on the day!

Down South the Allies land at Georgetown and might have enough to get it before I can reinforce. As usual they landed to both sides of the base to stuff up transport, but only with small units, and those will be wiped out tomorrow. The Burma Army is all railing out these next few days. Bye bye Bangkok.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 3, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Time Surface Combat, near Daito Shoto at 99,68, Range 10,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Enoki
DD Kusunoki, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
LCS(L)-25
LCS(L)-26
LCS(L)-27, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-30
LCS(L)-31
LCS(L)-32
LCS(L)-33
LCS(L)-34
LCS(L)-49
LCS(L)-50
LCS(L)-51
LCS(L)-52
LCS(L)-53
LCS(L)-54
LCS(L)-55
LCS(L)-56
LCS(L)-57
LCS(L)-58
LCS(L)-59
LCS(L)-88
LCS(L)-90
LCS(L)-114
LCS(L)-115
LCS(L)-116
LCS(L)-117
LCS(L)-119
LCS(L)-125
LCS(L)-126
LSM(R)-188, Shell hits 3, heavy fires
LSM(R)-190
LSM(R)-191
LSM(R)-193
LSM(R)-194
LSM(R)-195, Shell hits 3, on fire

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 57% moonlight: 11,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on TF, near Daito Shoto at 96,70

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 19 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
P1Y2 Frances x 13

Allied aircraft
F6F-3N Hellcat x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
P1Y2 Frances: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
LCI-654
xAP Athlone Castle

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x P1Y2 Frances bombing from 2000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on TF, near Daito Shoto at 96,70

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 47 NM, estimated altitude 3,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
P1Y2 Frances x 14

Allied aircraft
F6F-3N Hellcat x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
P1Y2 Frances: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
P1Y2 Frances: 3 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
CV Bon Homme Richard
CV Bennington

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x P1Y2 Frances bombing from 2000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
VMF(N)-541 with F6F-3N Hellcat (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 1 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 4000 , scrambling fighters to 2000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 43 minutes

Some CAP have air radar
Banzai! - Murakami G. in a P1Y2 Frances is willing to die for the Emperor

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Kume-jima (94,65)

TF 194 troops unloading over beach at Kume-jima, 94,65

Allied ground losses:
24 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Georgetown (49,74)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

14 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
xAK Richard Halliburton
xAK Raymond Van Brogan
xAK John L McCarley

xAK Richard Halliburton firing at 93rd JAAF AF Bn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Daito Shoto at 97,71, Range 15,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Enoki, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Kusunoki, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
xAK Bernard L. Rodman, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK John Martin Miller, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
xAK Willard R. Johnson, Shell hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK William W. Johnson, Shell hits 12, heavy fires, heavy damage

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions: 28,000 yards
Range closes to 25,000 yards...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Naha at 93,66

Japanese Ships
TK Nissyo Maru, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
E Kurahashi
E Mutsure
TK Tatekawa Maru

Allied Ships
SS Carp, hits 34, and is sunk

SS Carp launches 6 torpedoes at TK Nissyo Maru
Carp diving deep ....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hakodate , at 119,53

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 14 NM, estimated altitude 44,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 45
N1K5-J George x 45
Ki-83 x 1
Ki-84r Frank x 23
Ki-100-II Tony x 18

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-100-II Tony: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 4 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hakodate , at 119,53

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 41 NM, estimated altitude 43,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 42
N1K5-J George x 42
Ki-83 x 1
Ki-84r Frank x 21
Ki-100-II Tony x 13

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 2 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hakodate , at 119,53

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 16 NM, estimated altitude 44,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 32
N1K5-J George x 36
Ki-83 x 1
Ki-84r Frank x 19
Ki-100-II Tony x 11

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 2 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 5 destroyed

Morning Air attack on Hakodate , at 119,53

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 20 NM, estimated altitude 44,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 23
N1K5-J George x 31
Ki-83 x 1
Ki-84r Frank x 14
Ki-100-II Tony x 8

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 2 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 2 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 6 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Daito Shoto at 100,67

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 3 NM, estimated altitude 33,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 0 minutes

Japanese aircraft
P1Y2 Frances x 4
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 33

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 5
F6F-5 Hellcat x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
P1Y2 Frances: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
LSM(R)-188, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
LSM(R)-195, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x P1Y2 Frances flying as kamikaze
Kamikaze: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
15 x Ki-43-IV Oscar sweeping at 31000 feet *

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Daito Shoto at 97,68

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 48 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 21
D4Y4 Judy x 31

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 15

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 4 destroyed

Allied Ships
LST-350, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
LST-353, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 17 (12 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 3000' *
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Tanegashima at 102,67

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 11
B7A2 Grace x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
B7A2 Grace: 1 damaged

Allied Ships
LCS(L)-114, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-54, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-119, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-125, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-50
LCS(L)-58, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-53, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x B7A2 Grace launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hakodate , at 119,53

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 43,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 17
N1K5-J George x 24
Ki-83 x 1
Ki-84r Frank x 13
Ki-100-II Tony x 5

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 1 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 4 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hakodate , at 119,53

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 44,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 14
N1K5-J George x 18
Ki-84r Frank x 12
Ki-100-II Tony x 4

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 27

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 3 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x P-47N Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet
1 x P-47N Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Iwo-jima at 105,71

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 11 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 31
D4Y1 Judy x 3

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
xAK Henry Bergh, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring xAK Henry Bergh

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Tanegashima at 102,67

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 1 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 0 minutes

Japanese aircraft
P1Y2 Frances x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
P1Y2 Frances: 2 damaged

Allied Ships
LCS(L)-51
LCS(L)-49, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-34, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
LCS(L)-50, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
LSM(R)-194, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-32

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x P1Y2 Frances launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Tanegashima at 102,67

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 3 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 0 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y1 Judy x 24
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 43

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
LCS(L)-59, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LSM(R)-193, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LSM(R)-191
LCS(L)-116, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-52, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
LCS(L)-117, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-51, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-57
LCS(L)-55, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-115, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-33
LCS(L)-126, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-26, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
LSM(R)-190

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb

Morning Air attack on TF, near Tanegashima at 102,67

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 5 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 52
B7A2 Grace x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
B7A2 Grace: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
LCS(L)-56, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
LCS(L)-32, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-57
LCS(L)-31, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
LSM(R)-191, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
LCS(L)-88

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x B7A2 Grace launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Daito Shoto at 97,72

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 56 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 13
Ki-83 x 16
Ki-100-II Tony x 15

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 13
SB2C-4 Helldiver x 8

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 4 destroyed
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 5 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Naha at 95,66

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 8
TBM-3 Avenger x 4

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
SC CHa-69, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAKL Malacca Maru, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x TBM-3 Avenger launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 22in Mk 13 Torpedo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Tanegashima at 102,67

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 32,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 20
P1Y2 Frances x 9
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 30

Allied aircraft
F6F-5 Hellcat x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
LCS(L)-88, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-90, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
LCS(L)-30
LSM(R)-190, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x P1Y2 Frances launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Tanegashima at 102,67

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 55
D4Y4 Judy x 31

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y4 Judy: 1 damaged

Allied Ships
LCS(L)-30, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-25, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
LCS(L)-57, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-33, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Daito Shoto at 97,72

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 16 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 7
Ki-83 x 16
Ki-100-II Tony x 11

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 8
SB2C-4 Helldiver x 5

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 3 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Miyako-jima at 92,66

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 21 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 11
F6F-5 Hellcat x 8
TBM-3 Avenger x 8

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
xAK Nitiryu Maru, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
E Mutsure

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x TBM-3 Avenger launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 22in Mk 13 Torpedo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 53,64 (near Prachuap Khiri Khan)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 8548 troops, 202 guns, 66 vehicles, Assault Value = 409

Defending force 15080 troops, 165 guns, 15 vehicles, Assault Value = 460

Japanese ground losses:
18 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
2nd British Division

Defending units:
120th Division
1st RF Gun Battalion
3rd Mortar Battalion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 2/9/2019 11:33:30 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2836
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/9/2019 11:34:20 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Here is the scene. I'll update with more detailed looks later.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2837
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/10/2019 1:27:48 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		That is a really nice turn...what is he doing with all those small craft? I guess they are empty, or mostly empty, or do they have supply?

I dislike when the Allies throw troops or material away like that.

That base will be an absolute nightmare for you.

I can't believe you can get away with having all that shipping around. And why are all the subs to the south?

I can't figure out AFBs, that for sure.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2838
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/10/2019 3:02:19 AM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
Joined: 6/15/2002
Status: offline 		I am an AFB, have not played a PBEM as japan, and I can not figure CR out either.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2839
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/10/2019 8:09:10 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

That is a really nice turn...what is he doing with all those small craft? I guess they are empty, or mostly empty, or do they have supply?

I dislike when the Allies throw troops or material away like that.

That base will be an absolute nightmare for you.

I can't believe you can get away with having all that shipping around. And why are all the subs to the south?

I can't figure out AFBs, that for sure.


Well, those things are what make me think this base is an opportunity grab. I've got troops flying into others as we speak that are still open farther South. I might be able to either stop the flip or take it back. More on that soon. I can' believe I left it open in the first place. I think it was a missed assignment and I sent two naval guards to Another island. Hard to keep all of the jimas and shimas strait!

All of that shipping is scurrying for Nagasaki with oil/fuel and resources. He was South of Daito un§tis this turn.
He may have thought the KB was South, hence the subs there. His last sighting was at Cam Ran Bay.

< Message edited by obvert -- 2/10/2019 8:10:15 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2840
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/10/2019 11:52:25 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Why are the thunderbolt squadrons so small? They look like early British fighter squadrons.

Judging from this maneuver (the meandering juggernaut), I think you have won the air war temporarily, and the Allies seek to get VP elsewhere, i.e. on the ground.

I still really have no clue where they are going. Formosa makes no sense, Korea not much sense, so my main guess is China somewhere so that means there must simply be millions of supply in those fleets.

So, I think you are still in for a long war, and will see Soviet activation, and some Japanese late war toys.


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2841
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/10/2019 12:44:17 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Why are the thunderbolt squadrons so small? They look like early British fighter squadrons.

Judging from this maneuver (the meandering juggernaut), I think you have won the air war temporarily, and the Allies seek to get VP elsewhere, i.e. on the ground.

I still really have no clue where they are going. Formosa makes no sense, Korea not much sense, so my main guess is China somewhere so that means there must simply be millions of supply in those fleets.

So, I think you are still in for a long war, and will see Soviet activation, and some Japanese late war toys.



Maybe. The points game can turn quickly in 45 and any big missteps will give him the confidence to throw everything at me.

Those same P-47N unit swept and suffered a 1:1 against CAP at Iwaki before a B-29 strike. About 45 were lost on April 28. So I am assuming, since he would have had time to refill some of those groups that he simply doesn't have enough airframes. They only started in March, and there are only maybe 3 x 25 plane groups arriving with them since they became available. So that would be about 275 total planes by now. Having lost about 90-100 before this turn might make his 7-8 groups a bit under strength, possibly.

In general he may also realise that the later groups have tended to do better, and the more waves there are, the more effectively the CAP is worn down. That did happen with a few small packets this turn too.

I'd guess he doesn't have a large group of elite pilots anymore as well.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2842
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/10/2019 4:30:07 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		It is hard to tell where is what and in strength from your picture. Is the KB not spotted? Is it possible to hit the rear of the juggernaut?

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2843
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/10/2019 9:25:30 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Here is a more detailed shot. I did make a effort to hit the rear just on the turn he moved NW. Some ships spread to the North and only a few screening TFs stayed to the sides on the North. I don't think the KB launched. LBA came from everywhere though which is good.

Now I'll move things back and keep the LR strikes on. The KB will be in range of Kume-jima and ready to roll. I don't think the Allies will want a fight on our terms though. With defensive additions from nearby LBA the KB can hope to stand up to the much larger DS. Maybe.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2844
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/11/2019 1:41:02 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Looks to me, and from the empty bases, he is going for Formosa or China, with Formosa being my first choice, or Okinawa, or really who knows.

It is so hard to tell how many troops are present in this armada from naval search limitations...1,000 ships, 2,000 ships? 5 Divisions, 10 or 20?

One of the least attractive aspects of the game, sadly, and it has come back to bite many Japanese players.

I am curious how your sigint is doing at tracking the armada?


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2845
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/11/2019 6:34:51 AM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

1.  I've already stated that speed is important in getting through Allied CAP/flak to get the kamikaze plane into position to generate a hit.  There is no connection between speed and the size of the "boom" from the hit.


Two questions, the first because I want to ensure I understand and the second because I'm nosey.

- When you say CAP/flak, do you mean that airspeed plays in to evading both CAP and flak fire?

- Does this apply only in the context of kamikaze strikes or does it apply to conventional attacks also?


Qualified Yes.

Alfred

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 2846
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/11/2019 8:19:39 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline 		I haven't read too much of your AAR since I had this idea that I might advise CR and didn't want to break OPSEC, but my advice has pretty much been limited to ideas on how to structure amphibious TFs. I must say I can pick up a lot of small details from reading your side of the story.

I see you've tried some night air attacks on ships. Have you ever had any luck with that and, if so, under what circumstances?

By the way, kudos to both of you gentlemen for keeping this struggle very, very interesting.

Cheers,
CB

_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 2847
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/11/2019 9:40:13 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Looks to me, and from the empty bases, he is going for Formosa or China, with Formosa being my first choice, or Okinawa, or really who knows.

It is so hard to tell how many troops are present in this armada from naval search limitations...1,000 ships, 2,000 ships? 5 Divisions, 10 or 20?

One of the least attractive aspects of the game, sadly, and it has come back to bite many Japanese players.

I am curious how your sigint is doing at tracking the armada?




I think coast of China with Formosa asa backup if needed. He'll probably not need it, but may want the points.

He's still doing heavy recon on the Northern Manchuria and Chinese coastline, and on the Indochinese coastline into Southern China. I'm guessing this could be a multi-stage set of invasions, with opportunity dictating how many bases are taken. If the withdrawal from Burma was stalled I have no doubt Indochina and SW China would be on the menu. Since my troops are already getting to Udon Thani and beginning to walk toward Vinh, (with a smaller number going through Saigon and railing along the coastline just to hedge bets), I think he'll focus more on the Wenchow to Amoy range and possibly up to near Shanghai.

I'll have about 1400AV in Shanghai within a few days, and can bring more fairly quickly if rail is still open, but that's a big if. Forts are nearing level 8 there.

I'd imagine he's got 80% of what he brought to the North in the mob right now. That's probably 10k+AV and lots of AA, engineers and air support for setting up shop. From my Allied game I know that if prep is right I can pretty much land a 5k AV Army anywhere within a day. One thing that might be interesting here is a lack of APA/AKA for all of the good troops. So unload times may be a bit longer in some places.

I've not looked at SIGINT at ay point in the past several weeks. I feel like I can "see" what I need to see here. I'll have a peek for you next time I get in the save folder though.



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2848
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/11/2019 11:43:01 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
... I'm guessing this could be a multi-stage set of invasions, with opportunity dictating how many bases are taken. ...

I'm only an occasional viewer here, but from what I am looking at in your screenshots I would be thinking the same thing.
I wouldn't be surprised if he had a half dozen or more locations prepped in his convoys. Good idea, makes it hard to react.
On the other hand with only a couple of units prepped for a target, it means you have better odds to dislodge him as he won't have overwhelming force prepped for wherever he does land.

Good Luck!


_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2849
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 2/11/2019 11:52:45 AM   
adarbrauner

 

Posts: 1496
Joined: 11/3/2016
From: Zichron Yaaqov, Israel; Before, Treviso, Italy
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



It is so hard to tell how many troops are present in this armada from naval search limitations...1,000 ships, 2,000 ships? 5 Divisions, 10 or 20?

One of the least attractive aspects of the game, sadly, and it has come back to bite many Japanese players.



Not sure I grasp or understand what you mean by that?


If I thought of game limitations in (air) recon, I'd pinpoint lack of details in land recon by air, against a too fair overall count of "troops" and equipment in a 40 x 40 miles piece of terrain, by a very few recon flights?

But naval recon in game? Close to perfect?

(Well apart from the hated precise count of airplanes on the decks-but not in the air - a reference to the ominous naval CAP trap..)


< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 2/11/2019 11:55:55 AM >

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 2850
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