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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 5:49:45 PM

Canoerebel

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I noticed that that. I swear I was typing while you were - no cross pollination.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

Interesting take about the diversity of that area, John. But I'd leave room for optimistic outcomes for non-NYC areas here too. It may very well be that the unique diversity and intermingling you see in the daily life there isn't reflected elsewhere.

Having lived in / visited most other big metro areas in this country, I think that NYC is indeed unique. There's not so much intermingling anywhere else I can think of. Lost Angels is suburban sprawl. Same with Houston. Chicago is a hybrid between that and NYC. And the warmer climate in Atlanta, Miami, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and SoCal may be at least partially protective.

So I'm not convinced that everybody else in CONUS will 'get theirs' eventually. I think there's room for geographical regionalization (ala Italy) in how this virus gets spread around / dealt with and who gets it. I think there may be some lessons drawn from that at the end of the day too. We'll see.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I wonder how the outbreaks in other areas outside NYC will play out. You'd think it would be similar, but other countries have had regional hot spots. How important will population density, early onset of countermeasures, climate and other factors affect other areas? Or will it turn out that pretty much all will be affected, sort of like Angela Merkel's "70% of Germans" will get it (IIRC).

For instance, Florida has dense population clusters and an aging population but it's already hot and humid there.

What is there, an echo in here? Try to keep up with the conversation, man!

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 2131

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 5:50:14 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

obvert: Dyson is building 10k ventilators and is only awaiting approval of their finished design now to go into production.

I hope someone told them it needs to blow, not suck.

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Post #: 2132

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 5:51:58 PM

geofflambert

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Yesterday late to just now. Spain and the Netherlands are taking it on the chin. NYC holding steady. That could just be some data hasn't been entered yet for NYC.

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Post #: 2133

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 5:52:23 PM

obvert

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Ok. Some very promising reporting here about the virus mutation rate. Paywall so no link but read it if you can. There is a little piece attached to this twitter pic.

A vaccine that might stick in it's effectiveness over the years would be fantastic news!!

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< Message edited by obvert -- 3/26/2020 6:01:12 PM >

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Post #: 2134

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 5:53:19 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Some nasty spillovers are emerging, eventually.

The average deaths in the last years in Bergamo have been 98 between 01/03 and 24/03.

Total amount of deaths among residents has been 446.

Total amount of deaths due Cov-19: 136.

There are 212 deaths more than the average, then.

Is that 212 number because hospital critical care could not take in the critical non-Covid-19 patients because of lack of capacity?

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Post #: 2135

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 5:55:33 PM

Canoerebel

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According to Worldometers, New York State is reporting 19 deaths so far today.**

**Not only are there fluctuations in reporting by locality, state, country, etc., I get the feeling that there are fluctuations in updating by Worldometers, Johns Hopkins, etc. Might even be something like data entry personnel taking a lunch break, etc.

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Post #: 2136

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 5:58:10 PM

JohnDillworth

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Dan, In NY our hospitals are already at capacity and in the next few days will be overwhelmed. This is true of NYC and is true of many parts of the state. My town alone (probably bigger than your idea of a town) has over 500 cases. I live in a village in the town but I know we have cases. We only have the one hospital and it is slammed. The Governor told us the morning that the hospitals will be overwhelmed in he next few days. Our Governor has been sober and reassuring, but also bluntly honest.

BTW, Governor Cuomo is relying on one of the best medical minds in the country. Michael Dowling. Mr Dowling was Mario Cuomos Health Commissioner and is the CEO of Northshore Hospital systems. He is also my neighbor and his daughter and mine are best friends since 1st grade. Mr Dowling is old school Irish. Blindingly intelligent, frank, blunt and honest. Mr Dowling will be featured on 60 minutes this Sunday. If you can get near a TV I promise you there will be much wisdom to be gained

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Post #: 2137

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:08:46 PM

Cap Mandrake

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

It's a beautiful day. Kingfishers must be mating, noisy! Wind is up, good day to fly a kite. Went to the bank. They asked "How do you want this?" I replied "Anything but Grant." Drive-thrus are busy. LOL! I hope this miniseries is over soon.

What have I learned... I sure do LOVE touching my face!

"Anything but Grant"

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Post #: 2138

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:09:09 PM

MakeeLearn

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https://www.northwell.edu/news/insights/calming-fears-of-the-coronavirus

"While there is no vaccine yet for coronavirus and we are continuing to learn more about how it is contracted and spread, the illness is relatively tame compared to other infectious disease like Ebola and not nearly as widespread as the flu, which has already killed 23,000 Americans this season.Unless you suffer from a pre-existing respiratory issue, are immune-compromised or are elderly and in poor health, you should be safe. Some people may not even realize they have COVID-19 because symptoms are so minimal."

Michael Dowling is president and CEO of Northwell Health, New York�s largest health care provider and private employer.

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Post #: 2139

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:10:13 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

It's a beautiful day. Kingfishers must be mating, noisy! Wind is up, good day to fly a kite. Went to the bank. They asked "How do you want this?" I replied "Anything but Grant." Drive-thrus are busy. LOL! I hope this miniseries is over soon.

What have I learned... I sure do LOVE touching my face!

"Anything but Grant"

I had them all laughing.

_____________________________

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 2140

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:11:14 PM

JohnDillworth

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The Washington Post is tracking moralities the best they can. Their Covid coverage is free. Washington Post The article ends with this : "as Cuomo put it earlier this week, warning that his state is the canary in the coal mine: �We are your future.�

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Post #: 2141

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:12:09 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Dan, In NY our hospitals are already at capacity and in the next few days will be overwhelmed. This is true of NYC and is true of many parts of the state. My town alone (probably bigger than your idea of a town) has over 500 cases. I live in a village in the town but I know we have cases. We only have the one hospital and it is slammed. The Governor told us the morning that the hospitals will be overwhelmed in he next few days. Our Governor has been sober and reassuring, but also bluntly honest.

BTW, Governor Cuomo is relying on one of the best medical minds in the country. Michael Dowling. Mr Dowling was Mario Cuomos Health Commissioner and is the CEO of Northshore Hospital systems. He is also my neighbor and his daughter and mine are best friends since 1st grade. Mr Dowling is old school Irish. Blindingly intelligent, frank, blunt and honest. Mr Dowling will be featured on 60 minutes this Sunday. If you can get near a TV I promise you there will be much wisdom to be gained

John-any word on how some of the 'experimental' protocols of varying drug cocktails is working in NYC? Wasn't it 5-7 days ago that Cuomo said they'd be starting some of those trials?

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:12:52 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

It's a beautiful day. Kingfishers must be mating, noisy! Wind is up, good day to fly a kite. Went to the bank. They asked "How do you want this?" I replied "Anything but Grant." Drive-thrus are busy. LOL! I hope this miniseries is over soon.

What have I learned... I sure do LOVE touching my face!

"Anything but Grant"

I had them all laughing.

I assume that you'd make a similar exception if Sherman was on a bill too?

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Post #: 2143

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:19:47 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

It's a beautiful day. Kingfishers must be mating, noisy! Wind is up, good day to fly a kite. Went to the bank. They asked "How do you want this?" I replied "Anything but Grant." Drive-thrus are busy. LOL! I hope this miniseries is over soon.

What have I learned... I sure do LOVE touching my face!

"Anything but Grant"

I had them all laughing.

I assume that you'd make a similar exception if Sherman was on a bill too?

Oh #### Yes!
Jackson is tolerable. Would not mind if Franklin and Washington were on all denominations.

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Post #: 2144

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:37:01 PM

Canoerebel

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I'm sorry, John, my post re: "19 deaths" probably came across to you as minimizing the situation. In fact, I was replying to a post by GeoffLambert, just above, that there had been no deaths reported in NY today. I was just give him updated figures, sure to rise dramatically.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

According to Worldometers, New York State is reporting 19 deaths so far today.**

**Not only are there fluctuations in reporting by locality, state, country, etc., I get the feeling that there are fluctuations in updating by Worldometers, Johns Hopkins, etc. Might even be something like data entry personnel taking a lunch break, etc.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 2145

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:40:18 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Clearly we need larger inventories of N-95 masks (inexpensive) and more emergency ventilator reserves (very expensive).

The number of strategic reserve ventilators owned by Homeland Security is said to be 5000 to 30,000 (it's a secret). I have a feeling it's more than 5000 because we are sending 4000 to New York. I read Pence mentioned two shipments of 4,000 each.

What we DON'T need is foreign "partners" keeping secrets about emergent diseases. Amen.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:41:07 PM

alanschu

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Some nasty spillovers are emerging, eventually.

The average deaths in the last years in Bergamo have been 98 between 01/03 and 24/03.

Total amount of deaths among residents has been 446.

Total amount of deaths due Cov-19: 136.

There are 212 deaths more than the average, then.

I wouldn't be surprised if general "deaths" are up across the board due to the impact this seems to have on the health care system.

This is a bit related, but it reminds me that there was a expose type of video at a NYC hospital that had a nurse talking about how they'd be treating car accident victims and their CT scans were also coming up positive for having Covid type of symptoms on their lungs. I do think the virus is pretty pervasive.

I'm very curious to see death rates across the globe and compare them to "normal" as I wouldn't be surprised if there are places that have it but aren't tracking it the way Europe/NA/some of Asia have been.

quote:

A variety of outlets are touting this as a "shocking" total of 80,000 dead in the US in four months. That's serious, but if true its 2x or 3x seasonal flu over about the same amount of time. Earlier projections were wildly higher, so shouldn't this be comparatively good news?

I think people were hoping that the social distancing would have a greater effect. I also think the earlier projections weren't accounting for any substantial measures?

(in reply to ITAKLinus)

Post #: 2147

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:42:00 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I find the 'relative size' national problem to be interesting as well. By sorting on the number of cases per million population, a different picture emerges. One can brush aside Vatican City here, but size-wise Switzerland, Iceland and Luxembourg are having a greater national challenge than Italy, Spain or Germany. The Swiss leading the charge in terms percentage of their population affected with this thing? Really? Counter-intuitive perhaps. But it might explain the northern / cooler climate argument=worst hit if one filters out the larger 'noise' of the raw case numbers of other larger countries.

Early this morning I read, perhaps in this thread, that Iceland has undertaken lots of proactive testing, so it seems they are counting many asymptomatic cases. With a population of only a few hundred thousand it doesn't take very many to bump their "cases per million" number.

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Post #: 2148

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:50:11 PM

alanschu

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I notice that some places (like US states) have a more constant trickle of numbers than Italy which seems to get them all at once.

That said, I notice that Italy's numbers got bumped to 712. Still not peak. Worst case interpretation of past few days is a slower incline, but I think optimistically we're still comfortably in a range that says plateau. As always we shall see with more data. World in Data moved Italy's days to double total deaths from 5 to 6. (They seem to be a day behind with their data too).

France is firmly into their acceleration now, I feel. Spain as well, though it slowed a bit in recent days. It's still low numbers, but Belgium and Netherlands are both starting to accelerate.

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Post #: 2149

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 6:52:10 PM

rader

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I had contact with a confirmed positive last week who came back from Spain and this week I have had a bit of a fever and mild respiratory symptoms (shortness of breath).

I've been in isolation for all this week, since I found out about the exposure. Had a video appointment with a medical service and they think I probably have it but they aren't testing people like me - just telling us to self-isolate. It's definitely a very mild case (so far). I'm pretty young (40) and in good health so I'm not very worried, but it does make me think there must be a lot of cases out there that we're not including in the statistics. I had another friend too who also had all the symptoms, self-isolated, but couldn't get a test.

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Post #: 2150

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:01:23 PM

geofflambert

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From: St. Louis
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

It's a beautiful day. Kingfishers must be mating, noisy! Wind is up, good day to fly a kite. Went to the bank. They asked "How do you want this?" I replied "Anything but Grant." Drive-thrus are busy. LOL! I hope this miniseries is over soon.

What have I learned... I sure do LOVE touching my face!

"Anything but Grant"

I had them all laughing.

You didn't say "All in McKinleys please"? They mighta had some around.

_____________________________

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Post #: 2151

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:05:35 PM

alanschu

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Joined: 12/21/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rader

I had contact with a confirmed positive last week who came back from Spain and this week I have had a bit of a fever and mild respiratory symptoms (shortness of breath).

I've been in isolation for all this week, since I found out about the exposure. Had a video appointment with a medical service and they think I probably have it but they aren't testing people like me - just telling us to self-isolate. It's definitely a very mild case (so far). I'm pretty young (40) and in good health so I'm not very worried, but it does make me think there must be a lot of cases out there that we're not including in the statistics. I had another friend too who also had all the symptoms, self-isolated, but couldn't get a test.

I hope it's a smooth one for you!

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Post #: 2152

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:07:48 PM

alanschu

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I noticed that India now has their own page on worldometers. I notice other places have more tests, but they have more deaths. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

I didn't realize this but they went on an aggressive lockdown on the 23rd, and on the 24th mentioned it was for 21 days.

Numbers are still super low, but they've been seeing a bit more of an uptick lately.

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Post #: 2153

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:14:40 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I noticed that India now has their own page on worldometers. I notice other places have more tests, but they have more deaths. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

I didn't realize this but they went on an aggressive lockdown on the 23rd, and on the 24th mentioned it was for 21 days.

Numbers are still super low, but they've been seeing a bit more of an uptick lately.

They closed the country quite early and have mentioned they are taking this seriously. Still, they aren't testing much for the size of the place, so who knows where they are now.

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Post #: 2154

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:18:58 PM

JohnDillworth

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blunt and honest. Mr Dowling will be featured on 60 minutes this Sunday. If you can get near a TV I promise you there will be much wisdom to be gained

John-any word on how some of the 'experimental' protocols of varying drug cocktails is working in NYC? Wasn't it 5-7 days ago that Cuomo said they'd be starting some of those trials?

quote:

John-any word on how some of the 'experimental' protocols of varying drug cocktails is working in NYC? Wasn't it 5-7 days ago that Cuomo said they'd be starting some of those trials?

I wouldn't get any inside info on that. The Governor would cover it in his briefing but I didn't watch today. If you have not seen one of Cuomos briefing they are pretty good and not necessarily NY specific. CNN's website has them and the TV might carry them. Strange times at my hose. 4 people home and the TV is almost never on. Maybe a couple hours at night.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:20:56 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

I had contact with a confirmed positive last week who came back from Spain and this week I have had a bit of a fever and mild respiratory symptoms (shortness of breath).

I've been in isolation for all this week, since I found out about the exposure. Had a video appointment with a medical service and they think I probably have it but they aren't testing people like me - just telling us to self-isolate. It's definitely a very mild case (so far). I'm pretty young (40) and in good health so I'm not very worried, but it does make me think there must be a lot of cases out there that we're not including in the statistics. I had another friend too who also had all the symptoms, self-isolated, but couldn't get a test.

Sorry to hear that. young and in good health is the way to go into this. Keep us posted please. Best of luck

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Post #: 2156

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:35:12 PM

MakeeLearn

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Joined: 9/11/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rader

I had contact with a confirmed positive last week who came back from Spain and this week I have had a bit of a fever and mild respiratory symptoms (shortness of breath).

I've been in isolation for all this week, since I found out about the exposure. Had a video appointment with a medical service and they think I probably have it but they aren't testing people like me - just telling us to self-isolate. It's definitely a very mild case (so far). I'm pretty young (40) and in good health so I'm not very worried, but it does make me think there must be a lot of cases out there that we're not including in the statistics. I had another friend too who also had all the symptoms, self-isolated, but couldn't get a test.

What was your level of contact with this person?

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Post #: 2157

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:36:13 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rader

I had contact with a confirmed positive last week who came back from Spain and this week I have had a bit of a fever and mild respiratory symptoms (shortness of breath).

I've been in isolation for all this week, since I found out about the exposure. Had a video appointment with a medical service and they think I probably have it but they aren't testing people like me - just telling us to self-isolate. It's definitely a very mild case (so far). I'm pretty young (40) and in good health so I'm not very worried, but it does make me think there must be a lot of cases out there that we're not including in the statistics. I had another friend too who also had all the symptoms, self-isolated, but couldn't get a test.

Take care. A friend here exactly 40 had it as well. It was light for three days, then bad for 3-4 four days, then got better. He did have one very bad day. All good now. Also no test.

What was the type and duration of your contact?

This study is interesting as one of the beneficial treatments South Koreans have found to use is widely available beneficial bacteria, lactobacillus gasseri (L. gasseri), and also readily available Sea Buckthorn berries.

http://m.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=7744

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/26/2020 8:56:10 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:36:28 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

It's a beautiful day. Kingfishers must be mating, noisy! Wind is up, good day to fly a kite. Went to the bank. They asked "How do you want this?" I replied "Anything but Grant." Drive-thrus are busy. LOL! I hope this miniseries is over soon.

What have I learned... I sure do LOVE touching my face!

"Anything but Grant"

I had them all laughing.

You didn't say "All in McKinleys please"? They mighta had some around.

I think they had to go dig up the Benjamins.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/26/2020 7:39:30 PM >

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Post #: 2159

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:38:41 PM

Kull

Posts: 2625
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From: El Paso, TX
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Probably not a good sign that Protezione Civile in Italy is losing the ability to count (page down to the Latest Updates section on Worldometers):

quote:

6203 new cases and 712 new deaths in Italy. Worldometer has contacted Piedmont officials directly and received confirmation that the number of deaths in the region is 499, 50 more than reported in the Protezione Civile's bulletin today, We have checked the totals by region and can confirm that the total number of deaths in Italy as of today is 8,215 rather than 8,165 incorrectly reported by Protezione Civile. Accordingly, the total number of cases changes from 80,539 to 80,589.

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Post #: 2160