warspite1
Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008 From: England Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay So, therefore, they should go to war with two of the greatest powers on Earth!! warspite1 So in addition to asking me what I would do, and what I think, You now state the above - should there be a question mark there? BUT Japan DID go to war with the USA and the CW, and what I think, what I would do, what Japan SHOULD DO is TOTALLY AND UTTERLY IRRELEVANT. We are trying to understand what the Japanese leaders, those that took the decisions they did in the build up to WWII, would have done if Barbarossa didn’t happen. For the last time, what I would do, especially as I have the benefit of hindsight, simply shouldn’t be a consideration, shouldn’t enter your mind, shouldn’t be given a moment’s thought. This is a what-if and you are putting yourself in Japan’s shoes and with no hindsight allowed. quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay They only authorized the FIC and Rising Sun actions after Barbarossa. warspite1 And I have also mentioned this second point so many times…… Once again you state that the Japanese move into the FIC was after Barbarossa. I’ve spelt the chronology out so many times, why do you keep getting it wrong? I am not going to type the full chronology out for the umpteenth time as I really can’t be bothered. But the key point: To assist their war in China, and buoyed by the problems facing Britain (and that have already befallen France and Holland) the Japanese moved into northern FIC in the autumn of 1940. This led to a tightening of the economic screw. Japan was now faced with an embargo of strategic materials – this was going to affect the military. Do you understand this now? FIC = before Barbarossa (tightening of the embargo including all scrap metals, aircraft lubricants etc). Second move into the FIC = after Barbarossa (Freeze of Assets and Oil) quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay Clearly, they saw the Soviets as a threat. warspite1 So you are saying the Japanese saw the Soviets as a threat, but not the USN? That is hogwash. Different factions within Japan each had their own thoughts on this. So even though the Japanese had signed a peace treaty with the Soviets in early 1941, even though they could see what was happening in Europe (in your scenario), you believe that the Japanese wouldn’t possibly, under any circumstances, decide to move into southern FIC with a view to a move south. However, the Japanese (who were on the verge of pulling out of most of China in 1940 before Hitler’s early success) decided that the US were not worth worrying about?? They were going to stay in China (with the economic problems that was bringing), they then decided to move in the FIC (knowing it would upset the CW and USA), they then signed the Tripartite Pact (which was aimed at the US). But according to you none of those aggressive acts should be taken into consideration when deciding on whether Japan would have headed south even without a Barbarossa? Newsflash: the USN was a factor in Japan's thinking - and yet she took the actions above anyway...... quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay You have to be blind not to see this, folks. warspite1 No, contrary to what you say, you don’t have to be hard of sight to come to the conclusion that the Japanese needed to get out of the hole she had dug and, just as in real life, provided she could reasonably gamble that the USSR would not attack Manchuria, then a grab for oil was a ‘sensible’ move. You ignore the possibility that Japan could possibly take the same course as real life and insist there are only two possible courses of action that they can take: If there is no Barbarossa can one make the argument that the Japanese will decide to do nothing? Having made the decision to stay in China, I don't think so no. After all the move into FIC in September 1940 was taken largely to help the war in China. This in turn has just brought a strategic embargo crashing round their heads. The message is clear, unless the Japanese get out of China, every time Japan moves, the US simply tighten the noose.... The Japanese 'missed the bus' faction decided there would be no withdrawal from China in 1940. That decision, from every possible angle, diplomatic, economic, military, means that doing nothing (and relying on a future course of action by Germany that may or may not happen) is simply not an option. If there is no Barbarossa, can one make the argument that the Japanese will attack the NEI alone? This is perhaps the easiest of all the questions raised in this entire scenario. NO not under any circumstances. In real life the Japanese felt that if they went for the oil they would need to hit the US first. There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING in this scenario that has happened to make the Japanese (those who historically set Japan at war with the US) make any different decision. Not one single thing.
< Message edited by warspite1 -- 9/4/2020 7:53:30 AM >
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England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805
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