IronDuke_slith
Posts: 1595
Joined: 6/30/2002 From: Manchester, UK Status: offline
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ORIGINAL: KG Erwin I hate to rely on stats, as they differ depending on the source, but Dupuy did the same thing, so I have a basis for comparison. The Wikipedia gave a figure of 8607 US dead compared to 17,236 German in the Battle of the Bulge. That's more than 2:1 in the Americans' favor. Another source, totalling all casualties, gave 82400 US/British vs 100, 000 German. This is for the German offensive/Allied counteroffensive phase. I can only echo Keke's point about numbers. Both Keegan and Hastings (very good historians) have produced wildly innaccurate figures about German casualties in Normandy during World War II. They were putting the numbers in the half a million bracket. These figures are quoted everywhere from Montgomery's memoirs onwards. Zetterling showed (from OKH records) that the figure was around 210000. I think Allied historians have inflated German casualties in many instances because they have assumed when a division is all but wiped out that all 15000 souls (or whatever) were killed or wounded, when in fact a large chunk of these men would have been in the supporting arms and would have escaped. It was merely the rifle element that was wiped out that might number 9 or 10 battalions of 700 each etc. In the first week of the Bulge, the US suffered around 25000 casualties to the German 20000. Within a week Allied forces opposing the Germans were three times tronger than when the battle started. Dupuy makes an assertion (that I confess I have not been able to check yet) that the German advance of 2 Panzer during the Ardennes offensive was quicker than Patton's spearheads during the first week of Cobra. You will know as well as I the differing conditions of these two advances. Ultimately, raw casualty figures mean nothing, because we know nothing of the context in which they occured. Dupuy's figures were weighted to take account of the shape and dynamics of the battlefield. It is what makes them so compelling. He takes these figures and says what forces did both sides employ, what weapons did they use, what defensive posture were they in, what artillery and air support did they have? He published figures which showed on occasion American forces outfought German forces. He was not selective. quote:
These are raw figures, but what do they prove? It is a selective choice of numbers, just as Dupuy chose to do, so overall, the results are inconclusive. My point? Dupuy chose to be selective in his pre-conceived theory, so he chose the stats to prove his point. There was no objective POV at all, as the book he published these figures in, "A Genius for War", postulated that the Germans institutionalized military excellence through the creation of their General Staff. Now, this may have been true during the eras of victory in both world wars, but it ultimately failed them. He did the analysis, and the theory grew out of the analysis. Many engagements have been analysed, no one has been able to dispute his central point. Even the Bulge battles seem to have favoured the germans. I've mentioned this before, but the pre-conceptions about the American fighting man seem to belong to those who argue he was more combat effective, because they rubbish the only scientific model out there without good reason, because they seem unable to accept that the American fighting man was not the best. The German General Staff failed for numerous reasons, but they are not really what combat effectiveness is about. Overwhelming odds and poor strategy essentially finished the Germans, together with a resurgent and overwhelming Soviet Military on one side, and the overwhelming firepower of the Western Allies on the other side. quote:
The basic premise falls apart, as all the factors that play into combat effectiveness, such as training, morale, weapons effectiveness, logistical support, etc. are ignored. He falls into the trap of judging warfare as an academic exercise, devoid of human factors. His study is way too narrow, and this is where I have a problem with it. Combat efficiency is not about this at all. Combat efficiency is about who kills most efficiently. The items you cite above such as training and morale etc, are the factors that go to make combat efficiency. It is what historians look to for an explanation when they have established who kills more efficiently. You could, for example, prove American weapons and logistics are better, but they would only be more combat efficient if you found they inflicted casualties more efficiently than their opponents. The factors you mention above all come afterwards. Professor Van Creveld used many of these factors in his work on why the German Military were more efficient than the US Military during World War II. However, they came not as evidence that Germans were more combat efficient, but as the explanation of why they were more combat efficient. Combat efficiency is essentially established through Dupuy's work analysing raw data, and a good deal of circumstantial evidence. quote:
To Iron Duke & Keke, we can argue these points into perpetuity, but I cannot offer statistics to back up my original assertion, other than production figures, casualty stats, budget expenditures, etc. By every measure of these stats, the Americans kicked the Germans' butts. Production figures and budget expenditures merely prove who was the strongest. They prove the Americans were a heavyweight and the Germans a middleweight, but they do not prove who was the better pugilist. Dupuy's figures show the Germans were better boxers pound for pound. If you have a bigger population and a better and bigger economy, barring an equaliser like nukes, you're going to win. That is not what combat efficiency is about though. The Russians outproduced and outfought the Germans in the east far more than the US ever did in the west, but I have seen no studies indicating the Russians were more combat efficient than the Germans. quote:
In real terms, it doesn't matter. We outproduced and outfought our enemies in WWII, and in every war since then. Outproducing them is a function of size. Your essentially saying that if America was the size of France she wouldn't be all that powerful at all. This is fair enough. In real terms. it doesn't matter, you are right, but then this thread assumes that it does matter, to be fair, because that was the assertion that sparked the debate. quote:
I would include Vietnam, but that isn't the focus of our discussion. Vietnam is best left alone for all sorts of reasons. It is a complicated conflict and not one the world is ready to be entirely objective about. quote:
I will say, though, that it is a fact that the American miltary in the present day is the best in the world. The roots of this superiority lay in the lessons of WWII, not, as some have stated, in Vietnam. The value of training and providing the troops with the best weapons and communications equipment we could give them were national defense policy in the 1940s. We are not a militaristic society, and the structure of our democracy, until recent years, doesn't advocate maintaining military forces for the purpose of offensive operations. We succeeded in creating these forces from scratch in Korea and Vietnam, and now have another in being. This is another part of my basic argument. No other nation in the world has been able to produce such a high-quality offensive force at a moment's notice. We saw it in action in 1991, and in 2003. The American Military was not suddenly created in 1991 or 2003. It was always there, it just required someone to use it. The American Military of WWII was created through a massive and quick expansion (as was the AEF in WWI) and neither was nearly so successful. A large chunk of that was down to having an exellent opponent each time. I'd argue present American domination did grow out of Vietnam because America came to believe that she had lost there, and that she had lost because she fought with one hand behind her back (I'm not concerned with whether the US were right, merely that that was the lesson drawn). After Reagan, her thinking has essentially meant she has ensured that she has never fought without overwhelming advantages. In a way, her current strategy is 150 years old. US Strategy was essentially set by Grant when he overcame the south by simple and relentless application of the military power of the north. American strategy ever since has spent and produced big, deployed big and fought big. That is not combat efficiency, though. quote:
My point--my main point--is that we established the capability to form high-quality modern forces like this, in a very short time, more than 60 years ago. I'd argue you did this 20 years ago under Reagan. The American combat performance in WWI and WWII and Korea (leaving Vietname aside) do not support this conclusion. Germany increased her military strength more successfully in the period before 1945, and I don't see much evidence one way or the other during Korea and Vietnam. Regards, IronDuke
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