RE: Shhhhhh... (Full Version)

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SierraJuliet -> RE: Shhhhhh... (3/7/2009 3:00:25 AM)

John   have you kept any records of the success of your submarine arm in this conflict.  Any idea how may I-Boat aces you have wandering around out there?



SierraJuliet -> RE: Shhhhhh... (3/7/2009 3:15:28 AM)

How about that... managed to make the top posts on page 62 and 63. 

John I know I've only recently got in on this posting gig and hope my contributions have been worthwhile.  I've been a fan of your AARs for some time having started reading way back when you and Wolfpack were slogging it out.  Great stuff and you have certainly whetted my appetite for getting a PBEM going.  Naturally the desire is to take on the up and down ride of the Japanese [sm=character0077.gif] so I've been mulling over how to go about it for sometime.  Anyway my promise to myself for this year is to get going against a real live opponent.  I'm looking forward to it and thanks to you [&o][&o][&o] and many others [&o][&o][&o] out there for the work you put into your AAR as they provide the inspiration to get going myself.  Still trying to figure out where the time will come from though.

Steve



John 3rd -> RE: Shhhhhh... (3/7/2009 5:52:04 AM)

Nice thoughts Sir.  Thank you.

I WISH I had kept records of my SS performance.  Am doing this with the First Team AAR though.

Definitely get a PBEM going.  It is a blast and no game is ever the same.  An AAR is good too but takes a lot of time and some serious dedication.  I wish you good luck in those ways...
 



flaggelant -> RE: Shhhhhh... (3/8/2009 12:50:59 PM)

Hey John,

I'm a rather new player, after doing nothing for about half a year i've started Pbem'in again,
and i was looking for some info source in the forum, little did i know that this AAR would fold out into
what is probably the most detailed economy guide + a nice few (understatement!!) tactical high performance acts along the way.

It took me weeks to get to the end page, because of limited time in reading time, but most of all; all the info i had
to process in order to get what you guys were actually talking about [X(][X(][X(] (a great thnx to the semi retired economics ministry for that as well!!)

I'm not sure if its encouraging that i learned so much, since it only shows that there is so much more to learn, but it was a great fun to read


I got a couple of Q on the mayor aspects of your war;

* War of attrition;
The war of attrition is hitting hard at the moment, but what were your main points in avoiding one earlier on?
what i counted so far was;
- fight at close distance, and if possible over friendly territory to save pilots if shot down
- turn down some aireal fronts until you get the new plane that might do the trick (i believe you did that over rangoon with tony(?), and in the homelands with frank)
- Keeping up XP over china to minimize losses (does this still happen atm? or are there to many allied fighters around today)
I'm quiet sure i missed out on something and would be very glad to hear more about your vision since you managed to keep XP high trough almost the entire game [&o]

* India;
Seeing all the troops pooring from the english side, doom seems to come harder from the english side rather than the americans atm.
Would you feel that invading india and taking karachi is a must to save the land war from certain desaster during late war?
(i know that the desaster is always coming at some point, but everything seemed to be roling nicely until the english warmachine unfolded at extreme pace)

Knowing what you do now, would it seem logical that in a next BPEM you would take karachi early on and go on from there?


* City hexes;
sidney & canton seem 2 very different battles, canton had only 3,5K suplies in a screenshot just before the battle which will have
been a deciding(? something wrong about that word..[&:]) point in the battle. looking at the time left before anything happened after evacuating OZ would you think it would have been possible to lower the OZ supply level enough for a takeover?


i wasn't sure if this was pm material or something for a post, but figured it kinda fits the learning spirit of the AAR,
so i put it up here, hope you dont mind/ find it bold of me to do so.

thats about it for questions (for now), sorry for my english.. not a real native speaker


Just wanted to add that i absolutely love your next operation [sm=00000622.gif]
and i hope for great succes (what do you estimate it will do to his supply situation??)

BANZAI!!!!!!!


[sm=00000613.gif]





USSAmerica -> RE: Nice (3/8/2009 3:29:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I want a thread locked to John & Dan so we can have WAG's to the target of his push.

My guess is ........................................



How bout we take reader's bets and then--after careful review--I will make the announcement??!! That could actually be fun! Many of you have been long term readers. How well do you know the author of this AAR?

Lurkers--please come up from the muck--and place your bet.

WHERE do you think Japan's Operation Downfall is going???


John, I've been busy and letting my AAR reading get behind. As I am catching up with a cup of coffee this morning, my first instinct from your screenshot of the CV's making their way to Soerabaja was, "He's going to hit Colombo!" [X(]

By the point where this actually get's posted in your AAR, it all might be ancient history, but since you solicited guesses..... [:D]

BTW, [sm=00000613.gif]



USSAmerica -> RE: Nice (3/8/2009 4:52:36 PM)

Ha, it seems that my small mind only thinks small thoughts.  [:D]

Invasion of India?  [X(]  Good luck, John!



John 3rd -> USS America (3/8/2009 5:48:37 PM)

Mike,

It is always good for you to jump in and contribute.  I hadn't seen your name pop-up on the forum that much (other then the Thread) and hoped all was well.  Glad you have gotten caught up on the AAR.  It is pretty crazy but I don't have anything to lose at the moment.  I feel like posting the same screenshot EVERY day as the TFs move closer to Ceylon!  We only got one turn in yesterday due to strange email demons consuming a turn in the either.  Am hoping for a turn this morning so I can then show things. 

Watching the last turn was bizarre.  I was on pins-and-needles throughout the search phases!  I was burning incense, praying to Mecca, had my prayer shawl on, sacrificed my cat, some Gregorians Chants were playing, and tried to concentrate on the Force to keep those search planes AWAY from my transports.  It worked...course I need a new cat and will name him Anakin II...

Seriously--good to hear from you...
John




flaggelant -> RE: USS America (3/8/2009 6:29:03 PM)

naming your cat anakin might be a thing to worry about, since he'll probably defect to "the dark side" and give away positions sooner or later [:D]

so john, would you say that taking indian mainland would interrupt supply to his fronts closer to your homelands, or
are you expecting that there is plenty of supply there for him to keep marching (and flying for that matter)?



John 3rd -> RE: USS America (3/8/2009 6:51:36 PM)

I am working on a written response to your long set of essay-length questions!

My cat is referred to as Annie when he is being cute...Anakin when feisty...and VADER when he is evil!




John 3rd -> 70,000 Hits! (3/8/2009 6:52:50 PM)

Holy Cats!  I just realized we blew past 70,000 hits on the AAR!  Thanks as always guys...



thegreatwent -> RE: 70,000 Hits! (3/8/2009 7:26:12 PM)

A good read will always get hits John[:)].

I appreciate the work that goes into all AAR's. Good ones especially.



John 3rd -> War of Attrition (3/8/2009 7:37:21 PM)

Let me respond to flaggelent's questions topic by topic-by-topic. First off the subject of a War of Attrition:


To start with I think a player has to know themselves within this game. 

I am highly aggressive and will push things to the limit as Japan.  Being aggressive doesn’t also mean stupid; however, as it is key to understand when enough is enough.  That moment in this campaign occurred when it dawned on me that I could not take either Brisbane or Sydney Australia.  

Additionally the realization of your opponent’s tactics are very important.  Whereas I am aggressive Dan has always played a highly conservative game and throughout the last 12-15 months I have tried to take advantage of that style.  As stated throughout the last 14 months (from Iwo Jima’s fall) of game time, I have felt that this conservative attitude has enabled me to cobble together a defense several times when it should have been over for the Japanese.  

In this campaign the Japanese avoided a war of attrition up until the massive battles began in Indochina and Malaya.  The war hasn’t been lost in the Pacific but down there.  Yes—I know that Iwo Jima and Sakhalin brought the Home Islands under Strategic Bombardment far earlier then normal but the LBA didn’t truly become dangerous until the advent of the double fighter sweeps from Torio Shima and Iwo Jima.  There is no real defense against that and things are beginning to slip fairly quickly.  Coming back the point though means that yes as a Japanese player you should try to avoid the war of attrition for as long as possible but eventual it will be forced on you.  As soon as that happens the game is done.  Becomes only a matter of time.  

Specific Answers:
1.  Try to fight over your own bases whenever possible to lesson pilot losses.

2.  Be AWARE of your reinforcement and upgrades times.  Your comments are dead-on with Tony and Frank.

3.  The things I have learned in the other AAR with Brad as my partner have truly shown me how little I know about elements of this game.  I speak directly of using Daitai/Sentai training and then using those pilots to keep your frontline units are high experience.  Didn’t know how to do that and it has cost me terribly in this campaign.

4.  My XP has stayed high with Bombers because I have been careful in my use of them and train them predominantly by doing ASW Operations.  Fighters is where I have dropped the ball badly.  USE China if possible.  I cannot right now due to Dan flooding the place with at least 4-500 high performance fighters.  Very good move on his part.



String -> RE: War of Attrition (3/8/2009 7:50:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

As stated throughout the last 14 months (from Iwo Jima’s fall) of game time, I have felt that this conservative attitude has enabled me to cobble together a defense several times when it should have been over for the Japanese.  




I'm sorry but I do feel you are being unfair to your opponent with such a statement. While it's easy to criticize him from your viewpoint you have to understand that you know a lot that he does not and in fact has no way of knowing. Other than making guesses and taking big risks there is little how he could have performed better. Making huge gains in 1944 as allies is great. Losing your edge to a blunder is not, especially if you only have one year left to compensate. Besides he has had your home islands under attack from very early 1944. I'd hardly call the decisions and actions that lead up to that conservative.





John 3rd -> RE: War of Attrition (3/8/2009 8:02:06 PM)

That is a GREAT comment String.  You are totally correct and I will amend the statement.  This is entirely from the Japanese point-of-view.  Even though Iwo wasn't his original target he DID take it!  Same statement could be applied  to Hokkaido and Sakhalin landings...  Though I sank 300+ ships in these operations he did TAKE critical real estate and set-up victory.




Q-Ball -> RE: War of Attrition (3/8/2009 8:52:03 PM)

Dan invaded Hokkaido in 1943. I don't think that is playing conservative, that seems pretty darn aggressive to me. I haven't been there the whole game either, but that one seemed pretty aggressive.



John 3rd -> India and CBI Review (3/8/2009 9:10:17 PM)

India;
Seeing all the troops pooring from the english side, doom seems to come harder from the english side rather than the americans atm.  Would you feel that invading india and taking karachi is a must to save the land war from certain desaster during late war?  (i know that the desaster is always coming at some point, but everything seemed to be roling nicely until the english warmachine unfolded at extreme pace)

Knowing what you do now, would it seem logical that in a next BPEM you would take karachi early on and go on from there?

These are excellent questions regarding CBI. 

I have come to several conclusions regarding this theatre:  

1.  The British—American—India—Chinese forces were TERRIBLY used in the real war!  All these units are historical and COULD have been used during the war but were not.  I mean the Japanese drove all the way to Imphal in late-44.   

2.  Truly do not know about invading India though am experimenting with that in the First Team Game.  We shall see if that makes any better progress and has differing results.   

3.  It was a mistake to pull out so many troops from China early in the war.  Once Dan saw what I was doing he then didn’t feel threatened and did the same thing.  Those Chinese HORDES are downright frightening.   

RULE:  NEVER get involved in a land war in Asia!  

4.  I was content to take all of Burma but didn’t move farther north towards Imphal or Ledo.  Perhaps that was a mistake; however, the real losses within this game with Great Britain came from those damned Amphibious Hooks.  Dan has been brilliant in his use of them.  It is solid, good strategy and has been used to devastating effect against the Japanese.



John 3rd -> RE: War of Attrition (3/8/2009 9:24:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Dan invaded Hokkaido in 1943. I don't think that is playing conservative, that seems pretty darn aggressive to me. I haven't been there the whole game either, but that one seemed pretty aggressive.


Brad you are also correct in that view. The Hokkaido Landing caught me totally flatfooted. It was a bold--CRAZY--move that failed to keep Hokkaido yet gained him Sakhalin...

That is a comment totally hitting bullseye! Thanks for keeping me honest.



John 3rd -> Shhhhhh...Hunting Wabbits (3/8/2009 9:49:40 PM)

October 27th and all is well...


[image]local://upfiles/18041/C9F305F04C22424DB570064E59BFE359.jpg[/image]



FeurerKrieg -> RE: India and CBI Review (3/8/2009 10:51:35 PM)

quote:

3. It was a mistake to pull out so many troops from China early in the war. Once Dan saw what I was doing he then didn’t feel threatened and did the same thing. Those Chinese HORDES are downright frightening.


I think this is one of the main things I do different when I'm playing Japan.

To me, China is the key. I would just about always put a greater priority on neutralizing China before attacking Australia. Australia is far from the Home Islands and China is not. Success in China means extra troops for where ever the Empire is threatened the most in late 43-45. And you don't have to take Chungking, just achieve a stalemate there and you'll be able to pull some troops out later since the odds of the Chinese units breaking out of an urban hex is pretty slim.

Then, not only do you have supply/resources from the whole mainland, you also don't have to worry about tons of Chinese augmenting the British offensives in Burma.

But hey - that is just me.



John 3rd -> RE: India and CBI Review (3/9/2009 12:18:11 AM)

FK---What you speak about is SOOOOOOOO true.  This is why we ARE NOT doing it in The First Team Game.  Lesson learned.




John 3rd -> Shhhhhh...Hunting Wabbits (3/9/2009 12:19:17 AM)

Boy, ohhhh Boy we need just one more day. Forecast is for overcast skies...



[image]local://upfiles/18041/1ED286C087B442249A2696B17584E814.jpg[/image]



John 3rd -> City Hexes (3/9/2009 12:35:46 AM)

The last set of questions that flaggelent asked:

City Hexes;
sidney & canton seem 2 very different battles, canton had only 3,5K suplies in a screenshot just before the battle which will have been a deciding(? something wrong about that word.) point in the battle. looking at the time left before anything happened after evacuating OZ would you think it would have been possible to lower the OZ supply level enough for a takeover?

i wasn't sure if this was pm material or something for a post, but figured it kinda fits the learning spirit of the AAR, so i put it up here, hope you dont mind/ find it bold of me to do so. thats about it for questions (for now), sorry for my english.. not a real native speaker

Just wanted to add that i absolutely love your next operation and i hope for great succes (what do you estimate it will do to his supply situation??)

  City/Urban battles are something very different to watch and do.   In the Battle for Canton the game will not let me move the troops out no matter what I do.  OK.  They stand and die.  The city has been completely out of supply since the second attack but is truly taking a bite out of the massive Allied Army.  Here are the attacks:

Oct 21st—Allied Deliberate Attack:  1-1 Forts to 8 (4906—3901) Japan  1,497 Cas  38 Guns Allies  9,971 Cas  242 Guns  11 Vehicles

Oct 25th—Allied Deliberate Attack:  1-1 Forts to 7 (didn’t write down AS Values) Japan  2,092 Cas  29 Guns Allies  11,142 Cas  213 Guns  7 Vehicles

Oct 28th—Allied Deliberate Attack:  1-1 Forts to 6 (5904—3109) Japan  1,536 Cas  37 Guns Allies  8,172 Cas  72 Guns  9 Vehicles

The loss in guns is horrific.  My Japanese garrison now has more guns then the Allied Army.  It will not make a difference though and I figure the town will fall about November 5th.

When it came to Sydney and Brisbane my troops were fighting at the end of a long supply tether and were tired.  My BBs were ineffective at doing any mass disruption so I could never really get over the top there.    Here the fight is against a Japanese force that has NO supply yet they still hold against an army that now numbers 335,000+ and has 54 Units within it. 

Regarding question of lowering Australia’s supply, I don’t think there is an easy answer.  The continent was more or less cut off for a year before I reached my final targets.  Truly I do not know how close it was.  That question is better asked for Dan because he was on the other side of that siege.

If you go back and read the Australia War, you will note that I didn’t intend to go as far as I did.  Initially I wanted to grab the NW Aussie towns for a buffer but Dan kept retreating and continued to advance.  The Campaign got bigger and bigger but didn’t really impact the war elsewhere.  Remember that it was 4 Inf Div from the Aussie Campaign that arrived in the nick of time to save Hokkaido.

Crazy stuff…  

Thank you very much for asking these questions.  This is the first time I have been somewhat retrospective of the war and the could of/should have scenarios. 

ALWAYS ask questions.      



John 3rd -> Southern China and ASW Fighting (3/9/2009 12:56:54 AM)

Land movements are detailed in this shot as well as the ASW TF moving about the area. I left off on the previous page detailing the ASW Fight to the 23rd. Let me pick-up with coverage of October 24-28, 1944:

Oct 24th
LBA ASW 2 Hits
ASW TF No Attacks

Shark hits an AP with 1 TT
I-169 SW of Hainan hits an AK with 3 Shells and 1 Torp

SS Spirella sinks after being damaged a week before.

Oct 25th
LBA ASW 1 Hit
ASW TF 1 Attack

Shark sinks an AK SW of Shanghai
I-17 MISSES BB King George V in the middle og the Bay of Bengal [:o][>:][:o]

Oct 26th
LBA ASW 3 Hits
ASW TF 1 Attack

SS Sunfish is sunk SW of Shanghai

Oct 27th
LBA ASW No Hits
ASW TF 1 Attack

Oct 28th
LBA ASW 1 Hit
ASW TF 3 Attacks

Raton set on Fire SE of Shanghai by 10 DC
Shark heavily damaged East of Shanghai by 16 DC hits

We hope to see some of these SS sink after having been damaged by LBA or ASW TF!



[image]local://upfiles/18041/8D9EACD4E2DF44B29E23889B4D3234E2.jpg[/image]



MrPlow9 -> RE: Southern China and ASW Fighting (3/9/2009 6:02:09 AM)

Great work so far, this insane plan just might work! (sorry if i jinxed it by saying that[:D]) I just thought I'd let you know I'm directly blaming you for the procrastination of my university paper that has a due date which is quickly approaching[:)]
Banzai my friend!
MrPlow9



John 3rd -> Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star (3/9/2009 6:09:06 AM)

I had hoped that Dan and I would get one more in today but it didn't happen. We've reached October 29th. I should know with tomorrow mornings turn if we have managed to slip past Allied Recon. If this is the case, then I will slowly set all the forces into place and plan for D-Day to be about November 5th.

This is my hope for the landing and CV side of the attack:



[image]local://upfiles/18041/52E0B929F9E54AA7A2C3DAC586A23B12.jpg[/image]



John 3rd -> RE: Southern China and ASW Fighting (3/9/2009 6:11:00 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MrPlow9

Great work so far, this insane plan just might work! (sorry if i jinxed it by saying that[:D]) I just thought I'd let you know I'm directly blaming you for the procrastination of my university paper that has a due date which is quickly approaching[:)]
Banzai my friend!
MrPlow9



As a Professor of History I cannot abide by your slacking! I do; however, hope you enjoy the ride that is about to occur...



FeurerKrieg -> RE: Southern China and ASW Fighting (3/9/2009 7:22:00 AM)

I wouldn't split the CTFs like that - LBA will arrive in 1 day and heavy bombers will get through smaller CAP much easier than a big CAP.



SierraJuliet -> RE: Southern China and ASW Fighting (3/9/2009 8:29:26 AM)

I've read with interest the strong and continuing arguments for and against splitting up the Japanese CVs but honestly would it still be a John 3rd version of the Japanese KB fighting machine without some adventurous force disposition?



Nemo121 -> RE: Southern China and ASW Fighting (3/9/2009 9:58:28 AM)

Why even make all these raids? If there are no planes or ships at a base and you aren't landing amphibiously at it ( in which case a port attack or CAS attack might be valid ) why are you dispersing your effort? Sure it'll look pretty etc but prettiness didn't win wars.

Where are you actually planning to get ashore? I'd suggest landing at least some tanks at Mangalore to help take Bombay ASAP...  It looks like your main force will land at Triv at which point it will be well placed to drive east. If you split your forces like that it might just work but I'd take Mangalore (unless there's loads of forts there which will scupper your shipping ) as a base to drive north.



SierraJuliet -> RE: Southern China and ASW Fighting (3/9/2009 10:19:12 AM)

Maybe John is emulating the Japanese predisposition for complex operational plans.  It could go horribly wrong but then again it may turn out to be a stunning triumph... for a while at least [:D]



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