|
Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball) (9/5/2010 2:58:26 AM)
|
quote:
ORIGINAL: Smeulders
Some interesting observations, but I think you paint a far bleaker picture then necessary.
First off, supply production in India is good, I'm running India at a surplus of about 2000 a turn. That might not be enough if there is a lot of combat on the subcontinent, but it's not at all critical or even a problem if it's fairly calm.
Second, it is still possible to run supply into India. The run from the off-map bases into Karachi is a very short, even large ships don't need to be on map for much more than 5 or 6 days to run into Karachi, unload and back out again if there is enough Nav Sup in Karachi. On top of that, this complete route is more than far enough away from Ceylon airbases, so LBA is no threat. Surface ships can disrupt the run, but must venture close to Karachi, where torpedo bombers are a large threat. On top of that, the RN can concentrate to defend the short stretch when needed to run in convoys. So surface ships to close down this route will become a very costly affair. KB probably won't be used for this, stationing it at Ceylon to raid the occasional India bound convoy is a huge waste, mini-KB or at least a part of it might be used for this though. The problem with a lack of shipyards is interesting though, because even though the RN can fight the IJN on the surface, the IJN will have a good nearby shipyard, while the RN does not. The only option is sneaking to the Aden and then the route near the African coast to CT, but there is no guarantee of safety there. The run from CT to India would be effectively cut though.
Finally, keeping a large naval presence at Ceylon at using it to disrupt the sea-lanes will cost the IJN a lot of fuel. A couple of CLs won't do the job and keeping CA and BB on patrol burns fuel and even though sources are close at hand, they are limited and needed for the industry as well. This is not to say they can't, but I wouldn't expect a constant presence either.
All in all, I do think that a Japanese Ceylon complicates matters, but it's impact on India shouldn't be overestimated either.
As to your point that Ceylon will help in raiding the chutes for the CT-Perth run, I'm not quite sure I get that, it's miles and miles away, Diego Garcia isn't anywhere near search range.
I'm no production expert, as I've never played the Japanese, but isn't supply production dependant on fuel? Through the LI mechanism? I looked in Tracker, and India has only two very small Oil sources at Ledo and Rawlipindi (sp?), and refineries at each. Production depends on fuel from Abadan and Aden, but really Abadan.
The trip from off-map to Karachi is short, yes, but that works both ways. Q only has to interdict a small, known lane. Subs work for that. CR has few ASW assets now, and those he has are at best ASW 8. Most are less. And he won't have a ton of air ASW help from Karachi.
Then the fuel has to be moved, right? Does LI production fuel flow by iteself, or does it have to be carted to the big industry centers, like Bombay? If the latter, more sea time, more exposure. Note too that all of the fuel he can haul in has to self-fund any short-legged xAKs or tankers getting back to Abadan, as well as the RN fleet, wherever he stashes it, plus ASW ops.
Third, yes, you can run already-made supplies into India, but from where? Aden makes 500/day. Abadan has some. The CD convoys bring a bit, but mostly to CT. Aden isn't open to the Med for a year more. He can try to run the blockade from CT, but again, LOTS of fuel if he goes extremely north, and he has to run the sub gauntlet. He'll lose ships. He says he's wanting to save a lot of hulls for the 1943-44 "secret push", but he may lose a lot now.
Fourth, I'm no hex-counter, but Betties can reach pretty far up there if he needs to distribute fuel and supplies by sea quickly. And Q can also stash a few CVLs at Ceylon to raid with.
Fifth, I think Q WANTS him to try to use the RN to make a stand. The RN ships in theater are mostly old buckets, except the carriers. CR won't have decent LBA help for months. Q might seek a decisive meeting action with the KB before he makes his next big move on land. I would. Take away the RN, stock Colombo up with big, modern IJN CAs, and Q has a six month window, at least, to run rampant through merchant operations.
Sixth, the shipyard issue is, as you agree, very important. One bad break in a decent-sized battle, and CR is off to CT. Two months of transit time alone. Colombo can fix almost anything the Japanese have.
Seventh, I don't think fuel is the limiting factor for Q. He can't stay for three years, but Sabang is a very short cycle time to Colombo, and it leaves the really major refinery centers for HI use. He's committed a huge portion of his land forces to this effort. He can't let them wither due to fuel to the HI to build HI stocks for the end game.
Eighth, my understanding of the CT-Perth exit chutes are that there is some variation. Q can use subs to make this complicated. I'm not saying they'll get much, but it would make CR micro-manage CT traffic, and he hates that.[:)] (CR: how do you like being talked about while you're standing there?[:)])
DG may be too far north to find CT-Perth traffic; I'll take your word for it. But it would be instrumental in zeroing in on CT to Karachi traffic for supplies, once Aden--Abadan becomes hot. Q just needs to keep several DD-CL flying wedge TFs on a circle patrol in the IO midst, waiting to be vectored by DG search. It would be a coordination nightmare, but there's space to play with.
Final thought--if India is starving for supplies, there's absolutely NONE to spare for airlift to China. The Chinese theater is on its own for now.
I think Ceylon can be "gotten by", but it's a Stage Two cancer diagnosis. It's not a flesh wound. It changes the entire game flow for the rest of 1942 at minimum. CR is not in the driver's seat. He's in react mode for now.
|
|
|
|
