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Canoerebel -> RE: One Weird Battle (10/26/2010 8:43:16 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
...Suppose, following the fall of Ceylon, your opponent had, instead of going into NE India/Calcutta, jumped by sea directly to an amphibious invasion of Karachi in April, employing 5-7 largely unprepped divisions? Assume your carriers were where they were, and the rest of the RN/USN the same. How do you think you would have fared by now?
I don't fault Brad for going for Ceylon first - he did it quickly, at low cost, and destroyed a British division in the process. By doing so, he removed a large and potentially hazardous "unsinkable carrier" to his rear. This was, in my opinion, an excellent first step towards conquering India.
Since most of the Burma army had already withdrawn into India and was no longer a sure bet to isolate and destroy, I definately think Brad should have gone for the juglar following Ceylon. I think my biggest worry would have been an invasion of Surat, the port north of Bombay, followed by quick moves to isolate Bombay and to severe the roads leading between NE India and Karachi. Employing that strategy, I think Brad could have then used his 15 divisions to destroy the pockets of resistance, which would have been weaker than than the relatively stout MLR I have at the moment.
To answer your question, a direct invasion of Karachi (or Bombay, I believe), would have been devastating if successful. Whether they could have succeeded is another matter - they are easy to defend due to the urban terrain. Preparation failure would seriously weaken the units and lead to big losses during the landings. Plus, an alert Allied player should be able to get a sizeable contingent there quickly to bolster the garrison(s). So I think a direct invasion and conquest of either of those two bases would be tough to achieve, and a failure would be devastating to Japan's efforts.
As for the gambit I feared the most - an invasion of Surat - I had 450 AV there behind four forts. That probably would have given me enough time to hastily organize my defenses at Bombay, Amadebad, and Karachi. But there's a base right across the bay - the name escpaes me - that was only defended by 100 AV. A landing there would have really unhinged my defenses, but I think it would have also triggered the aut0-reinforcements. Note that either Surat or that nearby base would give Brad an airfield that would permit effective reconnassance (and thus teamwork with ships to shut down Allied traffic to Karachi) and, once the base(s) was built, the ability to strike by air. Yikes for the Allies!
Overall, though, I can't say for certain. We'll have to wait and see how the strategy works in another game, though whether any Allied player would play possum like I have is doubtful.
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